Power Pitching Options

Noah Syndergaard, NYM (@NYY) (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.8K)

All of the higher priced pitchers carry some risk today. Skaggs and Syndergaard both have difficult matchups against the Astros and Yankees, Strasburg is making his first start off the disabled list, and Bauer is in a very hitter-friendly park in Texas where it will be 107 degrees. Skaggs and Strasburg are both complete cross-offs for me today, I do like Bauer quite a bit against a Rangers team that strikes out 25.3% of the time with only a .158 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ versus RHP. But he is crazy expensive, especially at $13.6K on DraftKings, and with that weather, I’m not sure I want to risk that kind of salary on him. That brings us to Syndergaard. Yes, pitchers against the Yankees are not ideal, but they do strikeout 23.5% of the time against RHP. Syndergaard has a 3.14 SIERA with 27.2% strikeouts and a 14.5% swinging strike rate that suggests his strikeout rate should increase over time. He’s only walking 5.2% of batters with a very low 27.9% fly ball rate and 23.3% hard contact rate. He’ll see a lot of right-handed bats in this New York lineup today and I’m feeling good about that considering his 3.05 xFIP, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 1.09 WHIP. He’s forcing 47.9% groundballs while only allowing a .118 xISO, .282 xwOBA, and just 21.1% hard contact. Against lefties, he has a 2.82 xFIP with 27.5% strikeouts. The groundball rate drops, but only slightly, to 44.8% and he’s allowing a .109 xISO, .279 xwOBA, and only 25.5% hard contact. The Yankees are a dangerous lineup, there is no question about that, but the high strikeouts, low hard contact allowed, and very strong run prevention numbers all add up to a guy who can win in this spot.  DraftKings did a good job bumping his price down for this matchup, which is another reason I like him so much.  I still think, because it's the Yankees, he'll be low owned but that's a significant discount off of Bauer. I’ll gladly pay the discounted rate and take my chances on him in tournaments today. If he can exploit that high strikeout rate for the Yankees tonight, there is plenty of room for upside on the low price tag.  

Value Pitching Options

German Marquez, COL (@ARI) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.1K)

Marquez is one of my favorite pitchers in DFS. He’s continually priced based on his full body of work, which contains several starts in his home ballpark of Coors Field. What often gets overlooked with him, however, is his drastic home/road splits. He has a 4.25 xFIP at home compared to a 3.38 xFIP on the road this season. At home, he’s striking out 21.5% of batters he faces, with a 9.9% walk rate, a miserable 1.85 WHIP, 1.88 HR/9 and a massive .400 wOBA allowed. On the road, all of those numbers improve dramatically including a 25.7% strikeout rate, only 6.4% walks, an elite 0.98 WHIP, 1.15 HR/9, and allowing just a .261 wOBA. What a difference! His splits have similar results. When facing lefties, in Coors, he has a 5.24 xFIP with only 15% strikeouts, a pathetic 2.26 WHIP, and a .430 wOBA allowed. On the road, also against lefties, the xFIP drops to 4.08 with a much higher 21.3% strikeout rate, an outstanding 1.00 WHIP, and a .258 wOBA allowed. Against righties, back at Coors, he has a respectable 3.23 xFIP with 29.3% strikeouts, a 1.44 WHIP, and a .363 wOBA allowed. On the road, a 2.54 xFIP with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate, only a 0.96 WHIP, and allowing a .266 wOBA. He’s a completely different pitcher away from home. Some of these numbers are borderline elite, especially against righties, yet his price never accurately reflects his skills because of those starts at home. Meanwhile, Arizona has struggled with right-handed pitching all season. They strikeout 24.4% of the time with only a .157 ISO, .295 wOBA, and 81 wRC+.  Marquez has been on fire recently, averaging 28.2 DraftKings points and 48 FanDuel points per game over his last three starts. One of those three starts was actually in Coors Field and it just so happened to be against this very same Diamondbacks team. Marquez went six innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, and two walks with eight strikeouts on his way to the win and the quality start. If he can put up that kind of line against them in Coors I’m pretty comfortable rolling him out against them on the road.  

Sam Gaviglio, TOR (vs. BAL) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $5.5K)

If you asked me to pick a perfect matchup for Sam Gaviglio, my response would be the Orioles, who are extremely right-handed heavy, which just so happens to be Gaviglio's strength. Plus, in case you've been living under a rock for the past week, Manny Machado is now wearing Dodger blue.  This means we have Gaviglio, with his excellent splits against right-handed batters, against a right-handed heavy lineup that just traded away their best player. Sign me up. Gaviglio’s numbers are not going to blow you away by any means. He has a 4.01 SIERA, an average 21.5% strikeout rate with a 1.32 WHIP and 30.6% hard contact allowed. Pretty average across the board. Where he starts to stand out is his aforementioned splits against right-handed batters. He has a 3.49 xFIP and the strikeout rate increases all the way to 27%. He forces 56% groundballs with a very solid 81.9% LOB% while allowing just 29.9% hard contact. He is a bit prone to the long ball, with right-handed batters having a 2.03 HR/9 and .180 xISO against him, but give me a right-handed bat in this Baltimore lineup that you’re worried about now that Machado is gone. Trumbo, I suppose, with a solid .216 ISO and .347 wOBA against RHP but Gaviglio throws a sinker and a slider most often to righties and Trumbo does not profile well against either of those pitches. Who’s left after Trumbo? As a team, Baltimore has just a .159 ISO, .291 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and just 31.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. This was while they had Machado, keep in mind. As long as Baltimore doesn’t roll out more than one or two left-handed batters in this lineup, then Gaviglio has tremendous upside with that 27% strikeout rate for his price tag. The Orioles will be a team we attack with pitching a lot during the second half of the season.  

Danny Duffy, KCR (vs. MIN) (DK: $6.1K, FD: $7.5K)

Lefties against the Twins. It will be a theme for the rest of the season unless something drastically changes. They strikeout 23.8% of the time with a mere .127 ISO, .306 wOBA, 90 wRC+, and only 32.9% hard-hits. I recommended Duffy in this article less than two weeks ago in this exact same matchup and he threw six innings of shutout baseball with nine strikeouts and only two walks. Duffy’s numbers are far from great, with a 4.76 SIERA and 20.5% strikeouts while allowing 44% fly balls and 37.9% hard contact. But, he’ll see a lot of lefties today and that’s where he really shines. He has a comfortable 3.94 xFIP and 19.5% strikeout rate. Obviously, we’d like to see more strikeouts from him, but as I already mentioned, the Twins strikeout 23.8% of the time against left-handed pitching and Duffy was able to take full advantage of that in their last meeting. The walk rate drops dramatically to just 4.9% as well as the fly ball rate which drops to just 36.1% with a very low 4.5% HR/FB. Opposing lefties have only a .153 xISO against him. Against righties, things become more sketchy, due to Duffy’s 5.18 xFIP and higher but still average 20.7% strikeout rate with 11.7% walks. He allows 45.7% fly balls, of which 14.1% go for home runs. Opposing right-handed batters have a 38.1% hard-hit rate against him including a .240 xISO and .368 xwOBA. But Minnesota doesn’t have many right-handed bats to take advantage of this. Escobar, despite being a switch hitter, has only a .115 ISO and .300 wOBA against lefties this season. Brian Dozier, a career lefty masher, has just a .143 ISO and .334 wOBA against righties this season. There is very little to like here for Minnesota and Duffy remains incredibly inexpensive (especially on DraftKings) despite the results from their recent meeting. There’s always a bit more risk when a pitcher faces a lineup for the second time in just two weeks, but I’m going to stick to what the numbers are telling me today, which makes Duffy and outstanding GPP option on this slate.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. 

Brandon Nimmo, OF (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.2K): You could make an argument for Nimmo to be in the value bats section for FanDuel only today. He’s not quite cheap enough to qualify for that tier but he’s grossly underpriced. He also smashes right-handed pitching with a .259 ISO and 37% hard-hit rate. German allows 41.7% fly balls with 16.7% HR/FB and 1.86 HR/9 to lefties. His two most often thrown pitches to LHB are a curveball and fastball. Nimmo has a lot of power against both pitch types with his .250 xISO against curveballs and his .253 xISO against fastballs.

Justin Smoak, 1B (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.8K): Bundy continues to struggle with left-handed hitters this season including a 5.09 xFIP, 47.1% fly ball rate with 12.3% HR/FB, and 35% hard contact. Opposing lefties have a ridiculous .293 xISO against him this season. Smoak has a .271 ISO and 38% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers. He also profiles well against all of Bundy’s pitch types including the fastball (.369 xISO), curveball (.328 xISO), changeup (.272 xISO), and slider (.220 xISO).

Manny Machado, SS (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.2K): You can accuse me of falling victim to the narrative a little too much here if you want, but I like Machado to start off his Dodgers debut with a bang. This will be the first meaningful baseball game he’s played in years. There was a ton of hype around getting him to Los Angeles. He’s going to be fired up beyond belief. He’s playing for a contender now and, let’s not forget, he’s facing a weak lefty who allows a .178 xISO, 19.8% HR/FB, and 33.3% hard contact to right-handed batters. Machado has a .240 ISO and 34.7% hard-hit rate against lefties. He'll be chalk, so just be aware of that, but he lines up as one of the better middle infield options on this slate today.  

Value Bats

Colin Moran, 3B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.5K): Moran is priced slightly higher than what I would consider the value-tier on DraftKings, but he’s still cheap and a cash game lock today on both sites. Honestly, if not for this new value bat section, he’d be on my home run watch list. He gets a massive park upgrade from PNC Park to Great American Ballpark, which is perfect for left-handed hitters. He’s facing right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle who has a 5.30 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 45.5% fly ball rate, and 21.7% HR/FB rate. He allows 45.7% hard contact, a .252 xISO, and a .352 xwOBA to left-handed batters. Moran has a comfortable .334 wOBA while only striking out 14.6% of the time to RHP. He also smokes fastballs, which Mahle throws 70% of the time, with a .334 xISO and .458 xwOBA.  

Jose Abreu, 1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.8K): Abreu is way too cheap on DraftKings today. I fully admit he’s struggled over the past month with just a .087 ISO and .203 wOBA. But his BABIP has been super low at just .185, which would suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. Plus, he’s facing a lefty where he has a .246 ISO, .379 wOBA, and 37.7% hard-hit rate this season. Slumping or not, this guy was an All-Star last week and he’s a career lefty destroyer. LeBlanc allows a .206 xISO and .335 xwOBA against righties this season. I’ll gladly buy low on Abreu, especially against a lefty, for as long as I can.  

Brandon Guyer, OF (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2K): Guyer is an outstanding value today as he should hit close to the middle of a powerful Indians lineup against the left-handed Martin Perez. Guyer has a .219 ISO and .374 wOBA against lefties this season. Perez, dating back to the start of the 2017 season, has an ugly 5.25 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 36.4% hard contact rate and he’s allowing a .203 xISO and .385 xwOBA to righties. Guyer profiles well against Perez’s pitch types including a .356 xwOBA against fastballs, a .595 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .367 xwOBA against changeups. 

Stacks on Stacks

Detroit Tigers (vs. David Price): Line movement and weather will be the key to this one. My initial reaction to the Tigers' low implied run total (3.81) was a complete shock. 3.81? That’s the fifth lowest on the slate for an almost completely right-handed heavy lineup facing a bad lefty. Not only that, but Price has been awful. In the past month, he’s had six starts and allowed 20 earned runs and 11 home runs in just 33.2 innings of work. That equals a 2.94 HR/9. He’s allowing a .214 xISO and .336 xwOBA to right-handed batters this season. But then I saw the weather and things started to make sense. In addition to a high rain risk, there’s also the potential for winds to be blowing in from center, very hard, at up to 16 mph. As I write this, it’s extremely early, so a lot could change with the weather between now and then, but this is one you’ll need to watch closely. If it looks like the weather could clear up and those winds aren’t as bad as originally estimated, then I will gladly load up on Detroit today, especially if their ownership is going to be as low as I think it will be based on what Vegas is saying. They aren’t the most powerful lineup in the world with only Castellanos (.275 ISO) and Candelario (.211 ISO) having over a .200 isolated power number. But they have several players with above average wOBA and hard-hit numbers including Castellanos (.488 wOBA, 50% hard-hits), Hicks (.391 wOBA, 33.3% hard-hits), Goodrum (.363 wOBA, 37.3% hard-hits), Iglesias (.361 wOBA), Candelario (.353 wOBA, 37.1% hard-hits). James McCann is having a down season, but he’s a career lefty killer and he makes for a nice punt option at catcher today.

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Tyler Mahle): This is another one that I really like but we will need to watch the weather. It’s not quite as extreme as Detroit, with a lower chance of rain (it looks like the heaviest won’t start until late into the game or even after) and some winds blowing in but calming as the game goes on. I’ll be watching weather and line movement on this game as well. If things start moving in Pittsburgh’s favor, I will stack them up today against Tyler Mahle who is awful against left-handed hitters. He has a 5.30 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 45.5% flyballs with 21.7% HR/FB and a 2.45 HR/9. He’s allowing 45.7% hard contact, a .252 xISO, and a .352 xwOBA to lefties. Gregory Polanco is my favorite bat from this team today with his .257 ISO and .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Corey Dickerson’s power numbers are down a little this year but he still has a respectable .177 ISO and .343 wOBA and he’s well on the radar as part of a Pirates stack. I talked about Colin Moran already as a great value bat to help keep the cost of this stack down. After those lefties, you can look to the right-handed bats as well. Mahle is much better against them but he does still allow 36.3% hard contact. Freese (.266 ISO, .402 wOBA – only 78 PA), Cervelli (.230 ISO, .388 wOBA), and Marte (.184 ISO, .363 wOBA) are all great ways to round out a full stack.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Dylan Bundy): This is not a good matchup for Dylan Bundy. Toronto has four powerful lefties that can exploit Bundy’s .293 xISO, .403 xwOBA, and 35% hard contact allowed. I already mentioned Smoak in the home run watch list, he’s a core piece today. Morales (.212 ISO, 45.3% hard-hits), Granderson (.204 ISO, .346 wOBA), and Solarte are all in play as well. Granderson is a great salary saver. Bundy’s not immune to right-handed bats either where he’s allowing a .196 xISO. That puts Grichuk (.256 ISO) and Hernandez (.222 ISO, 39.1% hard-hits) squarely on the radar. Depending on what the final lineup looks like, I’d have some interest in Smith Jr, Diaz, or Gurriel if any of them get the start.  

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll!