Welcome back! Hope you all had a great weekend. We’ve got nine games to consider on this Monday night slate to kick off the holiday week. There are two “aces,” though one of them is in a really bad spot, so what to do with him will be one of the first decisions you have to make today. This is also a Coors slate. But as of this morning, the Giants and the Rockies are not the highest implied team totals available. Similar to this weekend, every outdoor game has very hot and humid weather, ideal hitting conditions. In case you didn’t pay attention to how the weather impacted the games over the weekend, on Friday we had three teams score double-digit runs including 17 by the Nationals. On Saturday, five teams scored double-digit runs including 14 by the Cubs. On Sunday, four teams scored double-digit runs including 15 by the Indians. The weather matters in baseball. Today, we have games in Washington, New York, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Colorado where it will be at least 88 degrees. Most of these games will also have over 50% humidity, with the one exception being Colorado, which never gets humid. But it’s still going to be 92 degrees at Coors Field and you don’t need help from the heat or the humidity for the ball to carry in that park. For the most part, my strategy today is going to be to avoid pitchers from these outdoor games with one exception, who we will talk about in a moment. Scherzer is one of the arms I’m planning to avoid. He’s an elite tournament option today, but the 95-degree weather, 50% humidity, and a matchup with a very tough Boston offense make me seriously question if he’s worth the salary. He could still get it done, and this is probably the lowest ownership you’ll have on him all season, but I don’t plan on going there today. I would never talk you out of using him in any situation though. He’s definitely one of the more interesting decisions for this slate. We’ve got a lot to talk about so let’s dive in and see what we can figure out for our rosters today.

Power Pitching Options

Corey Kluber, CLE (@KC) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $11.2K)

Here is the one exception I’m willing to make when it comes to rostering pitchers in the hot weather today. Kluber wasn’t exactly a model of consistency in the month of June. He started off fine, winning his first two starts, but then he got blown up against the Twins, allowing four earned runs in just five innings with only three strikeouts. He came back in his fourth start, against Chicago, to pitch seven strong innings with seven strikeouts, while only allowing one hit and zero earned runs. Then he got blown up again against the Cardinals, allowing six earned runs in only 1.2 innings of work, including two home runs and just two strikeouts. So, which Kluber will we see today? It’s hard to say for sure, but what’s encouraging is this matchup against a very weak Royals offense that has just a .122 ISO, .287 wOBA, and 79 wRC+ which are all the lowest on the slate. The downside of rostering pitchers against the Royals, especially righties, is they only strikeout 19.1% of the time against right-handed pitching. Kluber, however, has the upside to overcome this, so I’m less concerned about that than I would be with an average pitcher. He has a 2.93 SIERA with 26.9% strikeouts. Against left-handed batters, he has a 2.69 xFIP with a 28.5% strikeout rate and only 4% walks. He gets nearly 45% groundballs while allowing only a .151 ISO and .249 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.86 xFIP with 25.4% strikeouts and only 2.2% walks. He’s forcing 50% groundballs while allowing just a .136 ISO and .244 wOBA. Aside from his recent inconsistencies, the only red flag that I’m seeing is the hard contact, which is 36.3% to left-handed batters and 39% to right-handed batters. Since he does a good job getting groundballs and he’s facing a poor offense today, this isn’t all that concerning to me. He’s by far the largest favorite on the board today at -300 and I like his chances to bounce back after a very rough start and get the month of July off on the right track. He’s my top arm for cash games today and strongly in consideration for tournaments as well.  

Robbie Ray, ARI (vs. STL) (DK: $9.9K, FD: $9.4K)

Ray looked strong, granted it was against the Marlins, in his first start since returning from the DL. He threw 83 pitches allowing just two hits, two walks, zero earned runs and six strikeouts. Today, he’ll face a Cardinals team that, despite being very right-handed heavy, is struggling with left-handed pitching this season. They have an uninspiring .158 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ against lefties. They strikeout 23.2% of the time and they hit 47.4% groundballs, which are the second most of any team on the board today. I’m still using data from both this season and last since Ray hasn’t pitched a ton yet in 2018, but he’s very good to both sides of the plate. Against lefties, he has a 2.33 xFIP with a massive 39.9% strikeout rate (18.1% swinging strikes) while allowing just a .162 ISO and .278 wOBA. Against right-handed bats, which we are most concerned about today, he has a 3.75 xFIP with 31.7% strikeouts (14.4% swinging strikes) while allowing just a .154 ISO and .288 wOBA. I do have a few concerns worth noting. Against lefties, he does allow nearly 50% (49.4%) hard contact including a 21.2% HR/FB rate on 41.8% fly balls. Matt Carpenter is a sneaky option today based on this. Against righties, the home run concerns go down but he does have a 12.3% walk rate. Even with these concerns, the strikeout upside is very high for him, and the Cardinals lack of success against left-handed pitching this season are both very good reasons for me to want to use him on my rosters today. Another box he checks is related to the pitching environment he will be in. This game will be at Chase Field, which is no longer the hitter’s park it once was, and the roof should be closed. Thus, they will avoid the extreme heat as well as the humidity that many of the other parks will have today. Ray is a -148 favorite, a strong option for cash games, and an elite tournament option today.

Value Pitching Options

Nathan Eovaldi, TB (@MIA) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $6.3K)

I’m not sure I could think of a less exciting matchup than this one. We’ve got two very unexciting offenses squaring off in a huge pitcher’s park. But unexciting, believe it or not, can be good for DFS purposes. Eovaldi has been impressive, to say the least. He has a 3.58 SIERA with 22.4% strikeouts while getting 47.4% groundballs and allowing an average 30.6% hard contact rate. What’s more impressive is he’s done this against some pretty serious opponents. Since his return back on May 30th, Eovaldi has pitched against Oakland, Washington (twice), Seattle, the Yankees, and Houston. Those are some crazy powerful offenses, particularly against right-handed pitching. In his last start against Washington, Eovaldi gave up just one hit in six innings of work with zero earned runs and nine strikeouts. After all those tough tasks, he’ll get a Miami offense today that has just a .129 ISO, .298 wOBA, and 87 wRC+ to go along with 23.6% strikeouts against right-handed pitching this season. If we break down his splits, Eovaldi has a bit of a tougher time with left-handed batters including a 4.53 xFIP and just 17% strikeouts. He does allow a bit of power with a .182 ISO but also only a .290 wOBA and he’s getting 45.5% groundballs. Plus, Miami is fairly right-handed heavy, which is great news for Eovaldi, who has a 3.12 xFIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate and only 2.7% walks. He’s getting nearly 50% groundballs while allowing just a .257 wOBA and 28.3% hard contact rate. Similar to lefties, home runs are an issue where he’s allowing a .278 ISO and 2.48 HR/9. But, four of his six starts this season have come on the road in more hitter-friendly environments. Today, he’s still on the road, but in a much more pitcher-friendly park, which should help him with the home run issue. It’s also worth noting that of the eight home runs he’s allowed so far this season, three of them came in a single really bad inning against the Astros where Springer, Altuve, and Bregman went back-to-back-to-back. You toss that one inning out the window and these numbers look completely different. He’s a steal on FanDuel today, at a $2.4K discount compared to DraftKings. He’s expensive on DraftKings, no question about it, but he checks a lot of boxes. He’s got tournament appeal in this matchup if you’re looking to pay up for bats and he’s firmly on the cash game radar, particularly on DraftKings as an SP2.  

Brent Suter, MIL (vs. MIN) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $7.2K)

Suter is a player I’ve been using quite a bit recently and it’s mostly been successful. He doesn’t carry a ton of upside, with only a 20% strikeout rate, but he eats up innings and keeps the game under control. He has a nice floor, especially for an SP2, for the salary you need to pay for him. Today, he’ll face a Twins team that is incredibly left-handed heavy and, therefore, struggling with left-handed pitching. The two players from Minnesota that typically would scare the crap out of you when considering a left-handed pitcher are Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. But Dozier is a shell of himself this season with just a .114 ISO, .309 wOBA, and a miserable 22.8% hard contact rate against lefties. Sano, meanwhile, is down in Single-A somewhere trying to learn how to swing a bat all over again. Needless to say, this makes the Twins far less intimidating against lefties, and their numbers this season show it. They have a .131 ISO, .298 wOBA, and 86 wRC+. They strikeout 23.7% of the time and have only a 31.7% hard-hit rate, which is the third worst on this slate. With all that said, however, this isn't a lock as Suter has a 4.76 xFIP with only 17.1% strikeouts while allowing 35.4% hard contact to left-handed batters. But, the good news is, outside of Max Kepler (.299 ISO, .394 wOBA) nobody on the Twins profiles well against him. When facing righties, he is better with a 3.76 xFIP and 20.9% strikeout rate with the hard contact decreasing to an average 30.6%. Despite his struggles with left-handed batters, I think the Twins' struggles with left-handed pitching are worse and, therefore, I’m siding with Suter on this one. Plus, this game is in Milwaukee, so the Twins will lose the DH in favor of the pitcher, which is a nice upgrade for Suter. I wouldn’t go here in cash, as the risk is a bit much for that type of format, but he makes for a cheap SP2 option in tournaments so you can go get the bats you want from all these games in ideal hitting conditions today. 

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

                 >>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

• Didi Gregorius (vs. Anibal Sanchez): Sanchez is pitching better than expected so far this season but he’s getting roughed up by left-handed batters. Enter Didi Gregorius, who has a .260 ISO and 40.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Sanchez is allowing a .194 ISO including 23.5% HR/FB on 36.2% fly balls with 34% hard contact. This has resulted in a 1.86 HR/9 against left-handed batters. He throws several pitches to lefties, including a fastball, split-fingered fastball, cutter, and curveball. The curveball stood out to me here, where Gregorius currently has a .647 ISO and a .222 BABIP, which actually suggests he’s been unlucky against this pitch type. If you’re reading this Anibal, don’t throw him the curve today.

• Bryce Harper (vs. Rick Porcello): Porcello has the home run issue against left-handed batters under much better control than he did last year, but it’s still not great. He’s allowing 11.5% HR/FB on 42.3% fly balls with 39.7% hard contact. This had led to a .187 ISO (.206 xISO) against left-handed batters this season. Harper is Harper, not much need to explain why he’s on this list. He has a .294 ISO and 44.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. For the record, I went back and forth between Harper and Soto for this section. Harper’s numbers stand out a little more with how he matches up with Porcello’s pitch types but they are both on the radar today.

• Yoan Moncada (vs. Luis Castillo): Moncada let me down in a big way on Friday after being one of my top batters on the board for that slate and, from what I can tell, he didn’t do anyone any favors over the weekend either. Despite that, I still like this spot for him again today. Castillo is really struggling with left-handed batters this season allowing a .246 ISO with a 19.2% HR/FB rate on 40% fly balls and a 43.9% hard contact rate. Moncada has a .206 ISO with 44.3% hard-hits against righties this season. He also matches up well against Castillo’s most used pitch types including a .229 ISO on fastballs and a .316 ISO on changeups. Let’s not forget that Great American Ballpark is the perfect spot for left-handed power as well.

• Edwin Encarnacion (vs. Jakob Junis): Junis continues to give up home runs to right-handed batters at an alarming rate. He has a horrible 23.8% HR/FB rate on 40.9% fly balls with 41% hard contact which has led to a 2.48 HR/9 which is, by far, the worst of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. Encarnacion has a .271 ISO and 39.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Junis throws three pitches, a slider, fastball, and sinker, fairly evenly to righties. Encarnacion crushes each pitch type with a .282 ISO against fastballs, a .200 ISO against sinkers, and a .231 ISO against sliders this season.

• Yasiel Puig (vs. Nick Kingham): Kingham is allowing 14.3% HR/FB on 45.7% fly balls with 45.7% hard contact against right-handed batters. The ISO allowed isn’t bad at .157, but the .216 xISO and .209 BABIP suggest he’s been a little lucky up to this point. Puig has a .219 ISO and 38.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also crushes Kingham’s pitch types with a .223 ISO and .365 wOBA including a .281 ISO against sliders.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Jakob Junis): Junis during the month of June: 0-5 with a 4.89 xFIP and 23 earned runs in 29 innings including 10 home runs allowed. Yikes. Obviously, he’s hoping July will get off to a better start but that’s not going to be easy facing a difficult Indians lineup today. Junis is allowing a .180 ISO with 39.6% hard contact to left-handed batters and a .252 ISO with 41% hard contact to right-handed batters so far this season. Ramirez (.355 ISO, .439 wOBA), Encarnacion (.271 ISO, .346 wOBA), Lindor (.267 ISO, .362 wOBA), Brantley (.202 ISO, .373 wOBA) are my priorities here. Alonso (.188 ISO, .345 wOBA, Chisenhall (.349 wOBA, 120 wRC+) make find secondary options. The lowest hard-hit rate of any Indians player with at least 100 at-bats this season against right-handed pitching is 37.2%. These guys make for a fantastic pivot from Coors tonight.

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Madison Bumgarner): Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story against left-handed pitching in Coors Field. They instantly become two of the best hitters on the slate. Honestly, Ian Desmond isn’t far behind them. Arenado is in a class of his own, with a .450 ISO and .556 wOBA. Story has a .314 ISO, and .405 wOBA and Desmond, this season, has a .319 ISO and .411 wOBA. I realize Bumgarner is an above average pitcher but he’s still allowing a .196 ISO against right-handed batters including 13.3% HR/FB, 41.9% fly balls, and 38.6% hard contact. Oh, and this game is in Coors Field, so there’s that too. After Arenado, Story, and Desmond, LeMahieu has a .211 ISO and .384 wOBA, Iannetta has 41.2% hard-hits and Tom Murphy has a 62.5% hard-hit rate in limited plate appearances this season. As far as left-handed batters are concerned, Bumgarner’s numbers are solid, but the 4.08 xFIP and .230 BABIP suggest some regression is coming. Blackmon hasn’t shown any power this season against lefties (.108 ISO) but he does have a respectable .341 wOBA. Ryan McMahon (if he plays) is interesting as well with a .190 ISO and .366 wOBA.

• San Francisco Giants (vs. Kyle Freeland): I’d like this spot for the Giants a lot more if Evan Longoria was going to be in the lineup, but it's still good enough, especially at Coors Field. Freeland has been solid, even at home, with a 2.76 xFIP, 52.4% groundballs, and 33.3% hard contact against righties and a 4.59 xFIP, 48.7% groundballs, and just 29.6% hard contact against righties. He does, however, have a lower strikeout rate and is allowing 1.61 HR/9 at home against righties, so he’s far from bulletproof. As far as the Giants go, Hundley leads the way with a .339 ISO and .394 wOBA against left-handed pitching, followed by, surprisingly, given the lefty vs lefty matchup, Crawford with a .276 ISO and .356 wOBA. After both of them, Posey (.195 ISO, .378 wOBA), McCutchen (.189 ISO, .353 wOBA), Williamson (.179 ISO, .365 wOBA) are all excellent options tonight.

• New York Yankees (vs. Anibal Sanchez): As I mentioned in the home run watch list, Sanchez has been solid this season but he’s far from a sure thing. Vegas clearly agrees, as the Yankees enter tonight tied for the second highest implied total on the board with the Giants and ahead of Colorado, who are both at Coors Field. Against right-handed batters, Sanchez has just a 22.2% hard contact rate, .155 ISO, and .261 wOBA but that also comes with a very low .228 BABIP and 17.9% strikeout rate, which suggests he’s got some regression coming. Meanwhile, the Yankees are stacked with power right-handed bats including Judge (.310 ISO, .423 wOBA), Torres (.242 ISO, .354 wOBA), Austin (.235 ISO – if he plays), Andujar (.206 ISO, .350 wOBA), Hicks (.205 ISO, .349 wOBA), Romine (.203 ISO, .365 wOBA if he plays), and even newly recalled Brandon Drury who has a .200 ISO and .347 wOBA in limited plate appearances this season. Lefties are where Sanchez is really struggling so far, allowing a .194 ISO and 34% hard contact rate. He has higher strikeouts at 29.8% but still a low .256 BABIP. We already talked about Gregorius earlier in the article as a lefty with some home run potential tonight, add Greg Bird (.256 ISO) to that list as well.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Nick Kingham): Nobody will look at this game tonight for offense. Kingham is a young, talented prospect with a lot of upside, but there are still some pretty clear flaws that teams should be able to take advantage of. This game does not line up well for him at all. The Dodgers, as a team, crush right-handed pitching (.191 ISO, .324 wOBA, 105 wRC+) and several of their individual players profile very well against Kingham’s pitch types. Kingham doesn’t give up a lot of power to left-handed batters with a .156 ISO (.176 xISO) and only 4.30% HR/FB and just 29.6% hard contact but he also only strikes out 15.7% of lefties he faces. Here are the Dodger’s left-handed batters against Kingham’s pitch types: Bellinger .250 ISO, .346 wOBA, Grandal .229 ISO, .338 wOBA, Pederson, .329 ISO, .414 wOBA, Muncy, .336 ISO, .416 wOBA. Kingham’s strikeouts are better against right-handed batters but, as I mentioned during the home run watch list, he struggles with hard contact, big-time, against righties. Taylor, .189 ISO, .330 wOBA, Kemp, .186 ISO, .349 wOBA, Puig, .223 ISO, .365 wOBA, and Hernandez .235 ISO, .316 wOBA all have a ton of power against the pitches that Kingham throws most often. Turner does not match up quite as well here but he does still have a .176 ISO and 35.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, if you wanted to include him in your stacks.  

The Bullpen

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Kansas City Royals): I expect the Indians to make quick work against Junis today, which means some extra innings against this horrendous Royals bullpen. They have a 4.64 xFIP and just 17.6% strikeouts while allowing a ridiculous 41.2% hard contact rate. Kansas City is becoming a joke.  Cleveland is my favorite stack and that includes Coors Field.  

• Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Minnesota Twins): The Brewers are on the radar today. I think there are better spots but you could consider them as a sneaky option. If they can get through Kyle Gibson, who has moments of being a good pitcher and others of being a poor pitcher, they’ll have a chance against a Twins bullpen that has some positive regression coming based on their 3.94 xFIP, but still allows 14.8% HR/FB and 38.4% hard contact.

Spots to Avoid:

• Atlanta Braves (vs. New York Yankees): I considered the Braves as a stack option. I think Loaisiga could get some attention today after a brilliant performance his last time out. But that was against the Phillies, who strikeout at a very high level and have a very low hard-hit rate. The Braves are, essentially, the opposite and I think they can bring the rookie pitcher back down to earth today. But once they do that, they have to face a Yankee bullpen that has a 3.10 xFIP, 32.8% strikeout rate, and 1.10 WHIP. For the record, Vegas does not agree with me on this one, as the Braves have an implied run total that is climbing.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Milwaukee Brewers): If Suter gains steam as an option for a pitcher today, it might be tempting to consider a Twins stack as a leverage play. Though, the Brewers bullpen makes me want to stay away from any Twins bats. I already mentioned the reasons I like Suter, though I agree he’s far from a sure thing. Even if, by chance, the Twins get to Suter, the Milwaukee bullpen is impressive with a 3.38 xFIP, 28.2% strikeout rate and forcing 46.2% groundballs.  

I want to reiterate that Scherzer is still an elite tournament play despite all the risks I mentioned in the introduction. He has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in baseball but his floor is significantly lowered in this matchup. I could see this game going either way. As far as roster construction is concerned. For me, I could see myself going very balanced today, pairing Ray and possibly Eovaldi together and then filling in the bats from both teams at Coors, the Yankees, and the Indians. The Reds will be popular, as their implied team total is skyrocketing. Personally, I’m done stacking against Shields for the time being, as it’s gone without success so far this season, but I can see a one-off or two from Cincinnati paying dividends. For cash games, my biggest decision will be whether or not to use Kluber as I don’t think you need him tonight with the strong mid-tier for pitching and several good spots for offense. In tournaments, there are a lot of pivot spots off Coors today, which makes the outlook for ownership intriguing. The Indians are my top stack on the board as Junis has been getting absolutely rocked and that Royals bullpen is pretty pathetic at this point. I’d put the Giants and Rockies, in that order, as my next two teams, followed by the Yankees.  

Catch us on LineStar MLB Chat and don't forget to enter the freeroll today!