Power Pitching Options

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. DET) (DK: $13.5K, FD: $11.7K)

The question with these top tier pitchers is always whether or not they are worth their price tag. I’m feeling confident about Verlander today facing a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup that has just a .134 ISO, .291 wOBA, and 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The numbers are solid, as we would expect from a top-tier pitcher, with a 3.00 SIERA, 31.6% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging strike rate while only walking 4.7% of batters. He’ll face two, maybe three, lefties today where he has a 3.51 xFIP with 33.8% strikeouts and an outstanding 0.87 WHIP and 88% LOB%. They have a .101 xISO and .216 xwOBA against him this season. When looking at his numbers versus right-handed batters, which is what we are most concerned about today, he has a 3.60 xFIP with 29.9% strikeouts and only 2.9% walks. The WHIP actually drops to 0.79 with a still very high 81.8% LOB%. Opposing righties have a .172 xISO and .272 xwOBA against him. The only knock on Verlander which we talk about every time he’s on the slate is his 55.6% fly ball rate. But, he does a great job limiting hard contact, only 27.9% to both sides of the plate, so the fly balls only result in a 6.9% HR/FB rate. He’s a massive -350 favorite and the Tigers have a 2.28 implied run total today in Vegas. Verlander is your cash game arm to pay up for today and he makes for an elite tournament option as well.

Trevor Bauer, CLE (vs. NYY) (DK: $12K, FD: $12.2K)

Bauer makes for an elite tournament option today given his floor will be lowered in this difficult matchup but the ceiling remains in-tact. Plus, we are getting a discount on him compared to his price in recent weeks and his ownership should be lower with people not wanting to roster a pitcher against the Yankees. Despite the less than ideal matchup, however, Bauer still has a 3.05 SIERA with 31.8% strikeouts and 13.2% swinging strikes. As far as splits go, he has a 2.98 xFIP, 32.8% strikeouts with a 1.00 WHIP and 85.2% LOB% against lefties. He gets 45.7% groundballs and allows only 4.20% HR/FB. Opponents from this side of the plate have just a .097 xISO and .251 xwOBA against him this season. When facing right-handed batters, which is what we are mainly concerned with today given all the right-handed power in this lineup, Bauer has a 3.05 xFIP with 31% strikeouts. The WHIP is still really good at 1.14 while forcing 44.1% groundballs and only allowing a 5% HR/FB. Right-handed batters have just a .165 xISO and .292 xwOBA against him this season. One of Bauer’s most often used pitches to both sides of the plate is a knuckle curve which he throws 30% of the time. Nobody on the Yankees except for Didi Gregorius has had any success with that pitch this season. It’s the Yankees, who are always dangerous, so you can’t go here in cash. But there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about Bauer as a high-end tournament arm today. He’s a -129 favorite and the Yankees have a 4.26 implied run total which is significantly lower than their season average. I’ll have more than my fair share of Bauer today.

Value Pitching Options

Jose Urena, MIA (vs. PHI) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $7K)

Urena has been a very consistent SP2 option for me all season and I think this spot really lines up well for him today. From a matchup standpoint, he’s facing the Philadelphia Phillies, one of if not my favorite team to target pitchers against. They will give his modest strikeout rate a boost today with their 25.5% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching which is the highest on the slate. They have a little power, with a .166 ISO, but only a .315 wOBA, 95 wRC+ and an atrocious 29.4% hard-hit rate. Whatever power they have will be greatly diminished in this massive ballpark anyway. Urena has been a bright spot in this rotation with a 3.84 SIERA, 19.9% strikeouts and only 5.6% walks. He has a comfortable 1.19 WHIP and is getting 52.9% groundballs. He does allow 42.1% hard contact but that will even out today considering the Phillies very low hard-hit rate. He’ll see four left-handed bats today, where he has a 3.98 xFIP with only 17.2% strikeouts but a low 4.7% walk rate and a high 51.5% groundball rate. Against righties, he has a 3.60 xFIP with 22.5% strikeouts and only 6.6% walks. He’s getting 54.5% groundballs while only allowing a .123 xISO and .292 xwOBA against them this season. Overall, there is very little to be concerned about here. His numbers don’t indicate any kind of regression, he’s doing a good job at limiting damage, and he’s been pretty efficient in his outings. Ideally, we’d like a little more strikeout upside and a little less hard contact allowed, but Philadelphia solves both of those problems today with their incredibly high strikeout rate and incredibly low hard-hit rate. I think he makes for a great option today, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings (I don’t think you need him on FanDuel), in both cash games and tournaments. He won’t break the slate but he should reach value and open up some salary to pay up at the other pitcher spot or fit in some higher priced bats today.

Enyel De Los Santos, PHI (@MIA) (DK: $4K, FD: $5.7K)

I’ll be pushing that lock button on Santos today. I saw some chatter already this morning about getting burned rostering pitchers against Miami. I completely understand as I’ve been burned plenty myself in that situation. But, most of the time we are talking about when we’ve rostered elite pitchers, like Scherzer for example, when we spent $14K on him and he didn’t have a good outing. That’s a huge risk and a total lineup killer when that happens. This is a completely different scenario. Santos is $4K on DraftKings today. I’m honestly thinking this is a mistake on their part. He was $7.5K when he made his major league debut and he threw a fantastic game allowing only three earned runs on six hits while striking out six and picking up the win. Now his price drops $3.5K? It makes absolutely no sense so I’m planning to fully take advantage of it even if it does make me a little uncomfortable to roster pitchers against the Marlins. We all create these unwritten rules in our heads. “I don’t roster pitchers against the Marlins”, “I don’t play pitchers at Coors Field”, etc. But, we have to understand where the situation calls for those rules to be broken. This is a perfect example. As long as Santos doesn't end up with negative points, which is not asking a lot, I’m happy with the money I invested in him. As far as his numbers are concerned, outside of the one game he’s pitched in the majors so far, in Triple-A he has a 9-3 record in 16 starts. He has a minor league-leading 1.89 ERA and a respectable 3.89 xFIP. His strikeout rate is average at 22.7% (he has 87 strikeouts in 95.1 innings pitched this season), an excellent 1.08 WHIP, and an elite 92.6% LOB this season. He’s forcing an average 42.8% groundball rate with a below average 9.8 HR/FB. Against righties, he’s allowing a .188 BA, .266 OBP, .295 SLG, and just a .562 OPS. Against lefties he’s allowing a .234 BA, .304 OBP, .383 SLG, and .688 OPS. Overall, there’s very little not to like here. We’ve only talked DraftKings pricing so far but he’s absolutely in play on FanDuel as well. Their price tag on him was egregious to begin with when he was only $5.5K in his debut. It’s still egregious now, at $5.7K, but at least they increased it. I’ll be using him on every roster today, both cash and tournaments.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. NOTE: Coors Field is on the main slate on DraftKings but I will still exclude it here. Just know those hitters are all on the radar.

Juan Soto, WAS (vs. Corey Oswalt): The sample size on Oswalt is still small but he’s allowing 55.6% fly balls with a 20% HR/FB rate which is resulting in a 2.84 HR/9 rate and .225 xISO to lefties so far this season. Soto has a .194 ISO and 36.8% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. Oswalt throws a fastball 50% of the time to left-handed hitters. Soto has a massive .405 xISO and 90.1 mph average exit velocity versus fastballs.

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (vs. Masahiro Tanaka): Tanaka really struggles with right-handed power. He’s allowing 43.7% fly balls with 21.8% HR/FB and 2.25 HR/9. Opposing right-handed batters have a .212 xISO against him this season. Encarnacion has a .238 ISO and 41.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Tanaka throws a slider and a fastball as his two main pitches. Encarnacion has a .261 xISO against sliders and a .387 xISO against fastballs.

Jake Lamb, ARI (vs. Julio Tehran): Lamb isn’t having the best season overall but I like him in this matchup today. Sun Trust Park is a great spot for left-handed home runs and Tehran is allowing 43.3% fly balls with 14.5% HR/FB and 41.5 % hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .231 xISO against him this season. Lamb’s numbers are down, with just a .152 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. But, he does have a 44.3% hard-hit rate which is very encouraging and he has a career .221 ISO against righties. There should be some positive regression on the way for Lamb. I think he ends the first half of the season on a positive note.

Shin-Soo Choo (vs. TBD): Without knowing the official starter in Baltimore it’s a little hard to make a home run call but no matter which of the three options who take the mound today (Tillman, Yacabonis, or the bullpen) I want Rangers exposure. Choo is the most logical choice with a .248 ISO and .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season (both Tillman and Yacabonis are right-handed). It’s going to be 90 degrees today, with light winds blowing out and over 50% humidity in Camden Yards.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day:

Jose Altuve, HOU (vs. Francisco Liriano): A rare home run call for Altuve, which is why this is my sneaky call, but I think he gets it done today. Liriano is awful against right-handed bats, with a 15.6% HR/FB rate and is allowing a .245 xISO. He throws a two-seam fastball and a slider most often against righties. Altuve stands out with a massive .519 xISO against two-seam fastballs and a .239 xISO against sliders. Similar to Lamb, Altuve’s total ISO against lefties this season is low (only .106) but he has an excellent 43% hard-hit rate. Between the hard-hits and the success against Liriano’s pitch types, I like him a lot in this spot today.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Again, Coors Field will be excluded from this section because those teams are so obvious. Stacking both teams in that game today is definitely a viable strategy.

Texas Rangers (vs. Chris Tillman?!?!): The Orioles haven’t made any official announcements yet so it’s possible I’m wrong about this but as of now all signs point toward Chris Tillman being recalled to make this start today. He was originally slated to make another rehab start today and Jimmy Yacabonis was supposed to start for Baltimore, but Yacabonis apparently has strep throat and is unlikely to go. As a result, the team is considering just having Tillman pitch for the big club instead of another rehab start in the final game before the All-Star break. At this point the options are: Yacabonis is he miraculously feels better today, Tillman, or an Orioles bullpen game (Baltimore’s bullpen is awful). Any of those options are perfectly fine for stacking against. All the Rangers bats are in play today.

Houston Astros (vs. Francisco Liriano): Liriano has pitched awful so far this season and the numbers indicate it’s actually going to get worse. He has a 5.20 SIERA which is higher than 4.74 ERA and the BABIP is very low at .259 suggesting he’s been lucky up to this point. He’s going to have to face a murderer’s row of right-handed power today which is not good considering his low 17.1% strikeout rate, and his high 13.2% walk rate, and 1.61 WHIP to right-handed bats. He’s allowing a .235 xISO and .389 xwOBA to righties. Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Josh Reddick all have a .200 ISO or better against left-handed pitching. Bregman, Gattis, Springer, Stassi, Reddick, Altuve, and Kemp all have a .320 wOBA or better against left-handed pitching.

Washington Nationals (vs. Corey Oswalt): The Nationals will look to end what has been a miserable first half of the season on a positive note. Oswalt is very poor against lefties in particular with a 5.87 xFIP, only 15.4% strikeouts, 55.6% fly balls and a 20% HR/FB. He’s allowing a .225 xISO and .335 xwOBA to lefties and a .253 xISO and .364 xwOBA to righties. I love the Washington lefties today. Adams (.308 ISO, .408 wOBA), Soto (.194 ISO, .377 wOBA), and Eaton (.400 wOBA) are my favorites. Rendon has a .219 ISO and .354 wOBA against righties and Turner has a .332 wOBA as well. Harper, unfortunately, is out of the lineup today but I actually think that could benefit us as it will drive down ownership on the Nationals.

Cleveland Indians (vs Masahiro Tanaka): Tanaka got hit pretty hard in his first game back from the disabled list against a weak Orioles lineup. He allowed six hits and three runs in just 4.1 innings of work. Today he gets a much tougher test against a Cleveland lineup that has a .192 ISO, .329 wOBA, 106 wRC+, and 40.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Tanaka is giving up a .203 xISO and .331 xwOBA to lefties and a .217 xISO and .332 xwOBA to righties this season. Ramirez (.337 ISO, .449 wOBA), Lindor (.295 ISO, .379 wOBA), Encarnacion (.265 ISO, .343 wOBA, member of the home run watchlist today), Brantley (.199 ISO, .380 wOBA), and Alonso (.181 ISO, .343 wOBA) all make for excellent plays. Kipnis can be included as part of stacks. He does profile well against sliders which is a pitch that Tanaka uses often, but he’s a secondary option at most.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Atlanta Braves (vs. Patrick Corbin): Corbin is one of the highest priced pitchers on the board today so this could make for an interesting leverage stack in tournaments if he gets some ownership. He has some nasty strikeout upside with a 31.3% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging strikes but also some fatal flaws including a 44.2% hard contact rate. This lines up as a worst case scenario for him today as the Braves only strikeout 20% of the time against lefties which takes away Corbin’s strikeout upside and they crush left-handed pitching with a .196 ISO, .347 wOBA, 118 wRC+, and 37.5% hard-hit rate. Corbin actually has reverse splits, allowing a .174 xISO and .345 xwOBA to lefties and a .159 xISO and .278 xwOBA to righties. This favors the Braves since the strong part of their order (Inciarte, Albies, Freeman, and Markakis) are all left-handed hitters. They also profile well against his pitch types. He throws a slider 50% of the time to lefties and Markakis (.354 wOBA vs sliders), Freeman (.335 ISO, .469 wOBA vs sliders), and Albies (.205 xISO, .408 xwOBA) all hit that pitch type very well. He throws a mix of sliders and two-seam fastballs to righties. Camargo (.247 xISO vs sliders), Swanson (.244 xISO, .343 xwOBA vs two-seam fastballs), Acuna Jr (.735 xISO and .551 xwOBA against sliders), and Flowers (.785 xISO, .681 xwOBA against sliders) are all excellent plays as well. I love the idea of Acuna Jr and Flowers stacked with a couple of the lefties today. This should be really sneaky.

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).