Surprised to be hearing from me? Welcome to a special Saturday edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. We’ve been hearing your feedback about the DFS community not stopping on the weekends so I’m going to put newsletters together for you as often as I can on Saturdays and Sundays. I can’t promise I’ll be able to get one out every weekend but I’m confident we’ll be able to do it more often than not. Guess I better start training now putting together weekend content with the NFL season right around the corner anyway! Today, we have a 15-game all day slate that is broken up differently depending on which site you use. The main slates on both sites are the same, six games each starting at 7:15 pm EST. The early slate is different on each site and there is an all-day slate available as well. I’m going to break this article up to cover the early slate which I will define as any game that is happening before 7:15 pm EST and then the main slate which is obviously the opposite. Hopefully, this will give you a good mix of players to work with no matter which slate you are playing today. Early slate is loaded with pitching while the late slate is loaded with bats due to a Coors Field game.  If we take a quick look at the weather the only rain threat I see is Atlanta which is pretty typical but it doesn't look like anything major right now.  Most of the games throughout the entire day are going to be in hot weather so you can give a bump to the bats but there won't be any significant advantage since everyone is dealing with similar conditions.  It's hot in Pittsburgh (87), Minnesota (82), Chicago (84), New York (92), Atlanta (85), St.Louis (97), Los Angeles (89), Baltimore (89), Cleveland (85), and Colorado (94).  No wind impacts at this point but as always be sure to check the weather one last time before your slate locks.  Let's get to work!

Power Pitching Options

Early Slate:

Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. TB) (DK: $10.9K, FD: $11K)

The early slate is loaded with top-tier pitching but Berrios is standing out among them. I like Cole quite a bit today against a right-handed heavy Tigers team but I think Berrios can match him and he comes with an $1100 discount. Nola is also in a great spot but again I believe Berrios can match him, he’s $600 cheaper, and I’d rather attack the Rays than the Marlins. Tampa strikes out 22.9% of the time with just a .130 ISO, .309 wOBA, and 97 wRC+. Berrios has a 3.51 SIERA with 25.3% strikeouts and 11.5% swinging strikes. When facing left-handed batters, he has a 3.80 xFIP and 24.7% strikeout rate. The WHIP is outstanding a 0.96 and his LOB% is at 80.2%. Opposing lefties have just a .161 xISO and .306 xwOBA against him. Looking at the splits against righties, Berrios has a 3.47 xFIP with 25.9% strikeouts and an excellent 1.02 WHIP. Right-handed batters have just a .164 xISO and .289 xwOBA against him this season. Nobody on Tampa Bay is standing out as any kind of threat when we look at pitch types either. Berrios throws his curveball most often to right-handed batters and the only person on the Rays with above-average numbers against the curveball is Adeiny Hechavarria (.256 xISO, .336 xwOBA) but it’s a very small sample size and let’s be honest he’s not going to prevent you from rostering Berrios. Against the lefties, he uses his fastball most often and Jake Bauers (.216 xISO, .385 xwOBA) is the only person who stands out there. Berrios averages 44% more fantasy points when pitching at home like he is today and he’s a comfortable -136 favorite. He’s a great option for cash games and he’s certainly in the mix for tournaments, though I could see other people taking the discount here as well which would drive up his ownership. If that were to happen I’d certainly consider pivoting to either Nola or Cole.

Main Slate:

Kyle Hendricks, CHC (@SD) (DK: $8.9K, FD: $7.5K)

Hendricks is coming off of his best start of the season going 8.1 innings and allowing five hits, zero earned runs and getting 8 strikeouts against the Giants earlier this week. There’s no better way for him to continue to build on that momentum than a date with the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching, the San Diego Padres. They have just a .121 ISO, .285 wOBA, and 80 wRC+ while striking out a crazy 26% of the time. If you recall from my article on Monday when I recommended him there were two main reasons why I thought it was a good spot. First, Hendricks has been struggling with left-handed power but the ballpark he was in (AT&T Park) would help to minimize that threat. Secondly, Hendricks is a low strikeout pitcher (18.4%) but would get a boost against a Giants lineup that strikes out nearly 24% of the time to right-handed pitching. Well, we basically have the exact same situation today. Petco Park is also good for diminishing power as it’s the second best pitcher’s park in baseball and the Padres strike out more than the Giants against righties. Basically, if I liked him against the Giants then I pretty much have to like him here as well. Another reason to be optimistic is the pitch type profiling really works out in Hendricks' favor. His most frequently used pitch to lefties is his changeup which no left-handed hitter on San Diego is good against. The biggest threat is (shocker) Eric Hosmer but he only has a .162 xISO and .241 xwOBA against changeups this season. To right-handed batters, Hendricks uses his sinker more and none of them can hit that pitch either. Hunter Renfroe does have pretty massive numbers against sinkers this season but it’s a two at-bat sample size. If we add in last year’s numbers it becomes a 25 at-bat sample size and he drops to a .098 xISO and a .243 xwOBA. No threat there. In the past month, Hendricks has allowed 79 batted balls with only 22.8% of them going for hard contact and 29.1% resulting on soft contact. The average exit velocity during that span has been 84 mph and the average distance has been 199 feet. He’s a -175 favorite and easily my favorite arm for cash games on the main slate. He has the upside needed for tournaments in this spot as well but I expect he’ll be very popular.

Value Pitching Options

Early Slate:

Sean Newcomb, ATL (vs. ARI) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.9K)

We are getting a massive discount on Newcomb after a couple of very rough starts and what appears to be a very tough matchup today. Arizona is much better against left-handed pitching then they are against right-handed pitching but that actually works out in Newcomb’s favor because of his reverse splits. I’ll need to see the DBacks lineup before making any final decisions, but if they roll out their typical lineup against lefties that excludes Peralta, Lamb, and Descalso (or even two of those three) I will gladly go ahead and put Newcomb in my lineups today. He gives up a .248 xISO and .366 xwOBA to left-handed hitting this season but if there’s a possibility of only having one or two in the lineup to face him I would really like this spot. He’s only giving up a .098 xISO and .276 xwOBA to righties. He also has a 22.9% strikeout rate versus right-handers which should get a slight bump today with the Diamondbacks striking out 23.6% of the time to lefties. Overall, Newcomb’s numbers have started to regress after a very strong start to the season. He has a 4.49 SIERA which is over a run higher than his 3.44 ERA with solid 23% strikeouts but problematic 11.8% walks. He gets a decent groundball rate to both sides of the plate (49% against lefties and 45.4% against righties). He gives up a lot of hard contact to lefties at 38.8% but as I said I’m not expecting there to be many in this lineup today. This one is really interesting because everything is going to come down to what lineup is posted. If Arizona rolls out a typical right-handed heavy lineup against a lefty then I’ll be all in on Newcomb. But, if Arizona recognizes the reverse splits and has a more lefty-heavy lineup than I’ll be all in on the Diamondbacks bats and hope the rest of the field avoids the lefty on lefty matchups. Stay tuned.  

Main Slate:

Yefry Ramirez, BAL (vs. BAL) (DK: $5.2K, FD: $6K)

Ramirez has held his own since joining the rotation. He’s 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA and a 4.37 xFIP. I realize those numbers don’t sound great but three of his four starts have been against the Red Sox, Mariners, and Yankees. That’s some really tough competition. He has a respectable 4.01 SIERA with 21.8% strikeouts and really impressive 14.1% swinging strikes (higher than Nola, Cole, and Berrios). The BABIP is currently average so I don’t see any major signs of regression, he’s getting solid 47.1% groundballs and 28.3% hard contact. His xFIP against lefties is a bit scary, especially considering his matchup today, at 5.01 but the BABIP is also extremely high at .364 so it would appear he’s been a bit unlucky up to this point. He’s still getting 21.6% strikeouts with 13.5% swinging strikes and left-handed hitters have just a .063 xISO and .272 xwOBA against him. Against right-handed hitters, he has an excellent 3.87 xFIP with 22% strikeouts and 53.3% groundballs. He’s allowing just 23.3% hard contact, a .162 xISO, and a .275 xwOBA. I like the matchup today as well. We talk a lot about the Rangers being very boom or bust. They have massive power but they also strike out a ton (25.1% vs RHP). This should increase the ceiling on Ramirez today. Since he was called up, he’s allowed 38 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph and an average distance of 203 feet. The one downside here is he’s been very inefficient in his starts which is strange cause his walk rate isn’t bad at just 7.7%. He’s yet to go past five innings in any start including 97 pitches against Boston in just 4.1. innings of work and 92 pitches against the Yankees in just 4 innings of work. I’m willing to overlook this, however, because of the tough matchups he had. For the price tag today, especially on DraftKings, I’m seeing way more reward than risk. With the masses likely looking at Kyle Hendricks and Alex Wood, I think Ramirez could be a sneaky option that would allow you to fit in many of the Coors bats today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Early Slate:

Matt Carpenter, STL (vs. Luis Castillo): It’s pretty well known at this point but in case you need a reminder Castillo really struggles with left-handed hitters. He’s allowing 39.9% fly balls of which 17.5% end up in the seats which equals a 1.94 HR/9. Opposing lefties have a 43.8% hard-hit rate and a .252 xISO against him this season. That brings us to Carpenter and his ridiculous .253 ISO and 50.6% hard-hits against right-handed batters. Castillo throws a fastball, changeup, and two-seam fastball. Carpenter has a .407 xISO versus fastballs, a .204 xISO versus changeups, and a .316 xISO versus two-seam fastballs.

Matt Davidson, CWS (vs. Danny Duffy): He’s slumping right now but got the night off yesterday to regroup and his numbers are jumping off the page today. We’ll start with the matchup first. Duffy allows 14.6% HR/FB on 46.6% fly balls with 39.3% hard contact. All this adds up to a 1.86 HR/9 against right-handed batters, who have a massive .258 xISO against him this year. Despite being cold at the moment, Davidson is smashing left-handed pitching with a .327 ISO and 57.1% hard-hit rate. I’ll say that once again. He has a .327 ISO and 57.1% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. As if that wasn’t enough, he profiles very well against Duffy’s pitch types. He has a .294 xISO against changeups, a .447 xISO with a 91.8 mph aEV against two-seam fastballs, and a .740 xISO with a 102.6 mph aEV against sliders. Insane.

Mike Moustakas, CWS (vs. Reynaldo Lopez): Lopez has an extreme fly ball rate of 51.4% while allowing 34.7% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Opponents have a .207 xISO against him this season. Moustakas has a .263 ISO and 47.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As far as pitch types, they look very good as well. Lopez throws a fastball 60.7% of the time and allows a .220 xISO with it (should probably throw that less). He also throws a changeup 18.8% of the time while allowing a .296 xISO (guess he needs some new pitch types). Moustakas has a .219 xISO against fastballs and a .277 xISO against changeups.  

Main Slate (excluding Coors Field):

Danny Valencia, BAL (vs. Martin Perez): Perez will return from the disabled list to take on the Orioles today. Since he hasn’t pitched much this season we’ll take a look at both this and last year’s stats to get a sense of where he could have weaknesses. He has an incredibly low strikeout rate of only 12.1% to righties while allowing 15.4% HR/FB and 36.5% hard contact. Opposing right-handed bats have a .207 xISO against him dating back to last season. Valencia, and the rest of his teammates let me down last night but I’m going to give this another shot. He has a .250 ISO and 32.9% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Perez throws a two-seam fastball, fastball, and changeup. Valencia has a .205 xISO against two-seamers, a .309 xISO against changeups, and a .278 xISO against fastballs.

Nick Hundley, SFG (vs. Brett Anderson): I’m assuming he plays with Posey not fully healthy and the All-Star break fast approaching. This isn’t the best park for home runs but the numbers here are good enough to make this suggestion anyway. Anderson is a solid groundball pitcher, but like most groundball pitchers when something does get lifted into the air it usually goes far as suggested by his 14.8% HR/FB rate. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .199 xISO against him this season. Hundley crushes lefties with his .328 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate. He also hits Anderson’s pitch types (slider, fastball, changeup) really well. He has a .258 xISO against sliders, a .200 xISO against fastballs, and a .334 xISO against changeups.

Enrique Hernandez, LAD (vs. Andrew Heaney): It’s good to see Hernandez out of the platoon splits and getting regular playing time. He’s really hitting well against both righties and lefties this season, but lefties have always been where he makes his money. He has a .221 ISO and 32.6% hard-hit rate against them this season. Heaney gives up 41% fly balls, 14.30% HR/FB, and 39.9% hard-contact. Opposing right-handed batters have a .217 xISO against him this season. He’s a sinker, changeup, and curveball pitcher. Hernandez has a .334 xISO versus sinkers, a .190 xISO versus changeups, and a .263 xISO against curveballs.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Early Slate:

Minnesota Twins (vs. Chris Archer): Archer looked really bad in his first start back from the disabled list allowing three runs on six hits in just 3.1 innings of work. I’m particularly interested in his numbers against lefties as I assume they will have several in the lineup today. He’s got a 4.46 xFIP and a low 17.3% strikeout rate with 37.2% hard contact. Opposing lefties allow a .196 xISO and .361 xwOBA. I’m starting stacks here with the dynamic Twins duo of Escobar (.301 ISO, .385 wOBA), and Rosario (.267 ISO, .398 wOBA). Jake Cave is also interesting with a .200 ISO and .353 wOBA. Archer’s not looking much better against righties these days with a .214 xISO and .333 xwOBA. Dozier is heating up and has a .204 ISO against right-handed pitching. Mitch Garver, if he gets the start, has a .348 wOBA and Jorge Polanco has a .417 wOBA.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Sam Gaviglio): Gaviglio does not handle left-handed batters well with a 4.82 xFIP and very low 14.4% strikeout rate. A contact pitcher against a powerful, low strikeout offense is the ingredients for disaster. Benintendi is my favorite here (well, favorite lefty, nobody is better than Mookie and JD) with his .228 ISO and .407 wOBA. Moreland is next with a .240 ISO and .378 wOBA. Gaviglio gets a high groundball rate to righties (56.4%) but anything he does let into the air is trouble as indicated by his 23.1% HR/FB rate and 1.80 HR/9. Betts and Martinez, per usual, are your top two bats on the slate. Xander Bogaerts is in a great spot as well with a .270 ISO and .387 wOBA.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Ivan Nova): I hate this ballpark for scoring runs but I love stacking against Ivan Nova. He allows a ridiculous .271 xISO, .393 xwOBA and only 8.8% swinging strikes to left-handed batters and a .205 xISO and .326 xwOBA to right-handed batters. Lefties are clearly the priority here. Thames (.317 ISO, .388 wOBA), Shaw (.274 ISO, .370 wOBA), Yelich (.189 ISO, .365 wOBA), and Miller (57.7% hard-hit rate) are all firmly in play today. From the right-side, Jesus Aguilar has a .332 ISO and .414 wOBA. Tyler Saladino is still very affordable and has a .311 ISO and .400 wOBA in 48 plate appearances. Broxton (.233 ISO – if he plays), and Braun (.185 ISO) are also secondary parts of a stack today if you need them.

Main Slate:

We have Coors Field on the main slate. The Mariners will put a lefty on the hill which makes Story and Arenado two of my favorite bats on the day. The Rockies will counter with a struggling Jon Gray who had been sent down to Triple-A but will be recalled after Antonio Senzatela’s late scratch and placement on the disabled list. Stacks from both sides are firmly in play. I will exclude them here since they are so obvious.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Andrew Heaney): I prefer the Dodgers against right-handed pitching but I think this is a worthy spot against a lefty who gives up a ton of hard contact to right-handed batters. Opposing righties have a .217 xISO and a .344 xwOBA against him so far this season. I mentioned Hernandez in the home run watch list. He’s priority number one here. The All-Star, Matt Kemp, has a .292 ISO and .409 wOBA against lefties. Chris Taylor (.204 ISO) and Justin Turner (.385 wOBA) are both great options here as well.

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Martin Perez): I’ve literally NEVER had luck stacking against Perez. Honestly, not once in my life. Every time he’s on the slate I tell myself no but then I look at the numbers and I always wind up saying yes. He always manages to go out there and do just enough to not get blown up but not enough to get my teams into the green. I’m hoping that will change today as we have the added bonus of this being his first start off of the disabled list. This is a very similar spot to last night, with a left-handed pitcher, who allows a high expected ISO (.207) and a high expected wOBA (.388) taking on an entirely right-handed lineup. The biggest difference is that Hamels is a better pitcher than Perez is so even though this did not work out at all yesterday I’m going right back to the well. Valencia is on the home run list because of how well he profiles against Perez’s pitch types so start stacks with him today. Manny Machado, by default, has to be part of any Orioles stack. Rickard (.196 ISO), Trumbo (.183 ISO) Beckham (.384 wOBA) all have potential here. Secondary options are Schoop, who doesn’t have good numbers this season but is hitting better more recently, and Davis, who always has power upside but is more likely to strikeout a thousand times before he makes any contact.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Jeff Samardzija): I don’t want to stack a team at AT&T Park but I’m having a hard time ignoring the opportunity against “The Shark” (he should probably update his nickname to “The Fish” at this point in his career). This will be his second start off the disabled list. His first start was a trainwreck that included giving up an RBI double to the opposing pitcher Carlos Martinez. This season he’s allowing a .327 xISO and .435 xwOBA to lefties and a .207 xISO and .342 xwOBA to righties. I realize that left-handed hitters hardly ever hit home runs in this park anymore, but doesn’t it feel like as good a time as any when the pitcher allows a .327 xISO and Matt Olson has a .252 ISO and over 50% hard-hits? Davis (.279 ISO, .377 wOBA), Lowrie (.244 ISO, .384 wOBA), Piscotty (.209 ISO, .359 wOBA), and Pinder (.206 ISO) are all in play. I wouldn’t mind Phegley either for some power upside if he gets the start behind the plate. 

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).