Well, this should be interesting. Did I miss the memo about the All-Star game happening tonight? The pitching on this slate is insane and it makes for some very interesting decisions today. While almost all of these guys in the top-tier are in play today, there are two in particular that I'm planning to prioritize and we'll talk about them in a minute. Bats are going to be the tricky part. The field is likely going to focus on the small group of bats that are facing below averaging pitching. I think a couple of these spots are sketchy and I'm hoping that will give us an edge. As far as weather is concerned, the game to watch tonight is in Minnesota, where it does appear that rain will play a factor. It's probably no secret at this point that I love Blake Snell tonight, so if that game turns into a washout, I'll be very disappointed. I'll likely develop a backup lineup that doesn't include Snell that I can easily pivot to in the event I decide to fade due to the weather. I have a feeling I'll be waiting until the final minute to make that call. That's really the only notable part of the weather today. Otherwise, we have some games in the low 80's in Pittsburgh, New York, LA, and Cleveland.  You can give a small bump to bats there, but outside of Cleveland, they are bad hitter's parks, so that's not hot enough to make a real difference to me. Winds are quiet everywhere, though that could still change, so be sure to keep an eye on it. Let's get to it! 

Power Pitching Options

Blake Snell, TB (@MIN) (DK: $11.7K, FD: $10.5K)

Provided that the weather holds up, we will witness a masterpiece from Snell tonight. As if the chip on his shoulder from being this year’s biggest All-Star snub wasn’t enough, he gets to take out his anger on a Minnesota Twins team that can’t hit left-handed pitching to save their lives. If you missed some of the numbers about the Twins against lefties in Monday’s article, when I recommended Danny Duffy in this same spot (who went on to throw a gem), let’s go ahead and revisit them here. Minnesota has a .123 ISO, .296 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and only 32.3% hard-hits against lefties this season. They are striking out 24.3% of the time. Their best hitter against left-handed pitching is Max Kepler. I’m pretty sure I typed this exact same sentence on Monday but I’ll do it again here. When your best hitter against left-handed pitching is also a lefty, you’ve got a problem. Honestly, even with all that information, Snell doesn’t need any help. He’s got a 3.59 SIERA with 28.8% strikeouts and 13.6% swinging strikes. Against left-handed batters, he has a 2.47 xFIP with 33% strikeouts with a crazy elite 0.66 WHIP and 96.6% LOB%. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.82 xFIP with 27.5% strikeouts and a higher, but still impressive, 1.15 WHIP and 85.6% LOB%. Opposing lefties have only a .113 xISO and .248 xwOBA against him and opposing righties have a .179 xISO and .309 xwOBA against him. He’s not the most elite pitcher on the board today, that honor belongs to Max Scherzer, taking on the Triple-A affiliate…I mean the New York Mets. But when you factor in salary, the savings you get with Snell and his potential to match Scherzer in this spot makes him far and away my favorite player on the board. Vegas is not giving him enough love, in my opinion, with Minnesota having an implied run total near 4 and Snell only being a -118 favorite. I’d expect some line movement throughout the day. I’ll be using him in both cash games and tournaments today on both sites.  

Ross Stripling, LAD (@SD) (DK: $9.1K, FD: $9.2K)

If you liked Kenta Maeda in this spot last night, then you have to like the more talented Stripling here today. Right-handed pitching against San Diego is always a good decision. They have some power in the middle of that lineup but it decreases dramatically when they face righties instead of lefties. They have a team ISO of just .121 (the lowest on the slate) to go with their .286 wOBA and 81 wRC+ (also both the lowest on the slate). Stripling was added to the All-Star team yesterday, and rightfully so, as he’ll bring a 2.78 SIERA, 28.7% strikeout rate, and 11.3% swinging strikes with only 3.6% walks into this matchup tonight. When we take a look at the splits, there are very few concerns to either side of the plate. Against left-handed batters, he has a 2.27 xFIP with 31.5% strikeouts and a 51.7% groundball rate. The WHIP is excellent at 1.07 and the LOB% is fantastic at 88.1%. He’s only allowing 24.4% hard contact and left-handed hitters have just a .119 xISO and .245 xwOBA against him. When facing right-handed batters, the numbers are pretty similar, with a 3.23 xFIP, 25.7% strikeout rate and extremely good 1.08 WHIP and 90.2% LOB%. He gets 47.1% groundballs while allowing average 31.7% hard contact. Opposing righties have just a .131 xISO and .251 xwOBA against him. In the past month, he’s had 77 batted balls, of which 46.8% have gone for groundballs with nearly 20% soft contact and an average distance of only 198.5 feet. He’s a heavy -200 favorite today and, just like Snell, I love him for both cash games and tournaments. For the record, if you pair Snell and Stripling together, we are left with a little more than $3.6K for bats. If we can find a couple of worthy value bats, I think we can make that strategy work for cash games today.

Value Pitching Options

J.A Happ, TOR (@BOS) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $8K)

Like a very small fish in a shark-infested ocean, I fell for this trap on Monday and stacked the Red Sox against a left-handed Mike Minor. Outside of Betts, Martinez, and now Pearce, the Red Sox cannot hit southpaws. For some reason, even Vegas hasn’t figured that out yet, as just like Monday, Boston is the highest implied team today on the board for the main slate. This is a trap. Could it happen? Sure, it’s baseball and the Red Sox have a great offense. But the most likely scenario here is they put up a couple of runs (probably provided by Steve Pearce) and that’s the end of it. I hope Boston is chalk today because I will gladly use Happ as leverage. I’m actually a little bummed we are getting such a discount on him (he was $9.4K on DK for his last start and $9.4K on FanDuel two starts ago) as I think that will increase his ownership. Happ, another All-Star, will bring a 3.65 SIERA and 26.3% strikeout rate into this game today. He’s lights out against left-handed batters, with a 2.66 xFIP and 28.2% strikeout rate while forcing 57.4% groundballs and allowing just 26.8% hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .103 xISO and .250 xwOBA against him. Against right-handed batters, he has a worse, but still not bad 4.09 xFIP with 25.9% strikeouts. The groundball rate does drop to 40.4% but he still only allows 30.3% hard contact. There’s a little power available against him, as right-handed batters have a .186 xISO (Martinez, Betts, and Pearce are all home run threats today) but also only a .304 xwOBA. I can honestly see a scenario here where Happ pitches a very solid game while giving up a couple of solo shots to one of the Boston right-handed power bats. He’s coming off a couple of bad outings, but those were against the Yankees (what pitcher doesn’t do poorly against them?) and a right-handed heavy Tigers team that just wasn’t a good matchup. This is a tournament-only recommendation because he’s facing the best team in baseball (at least for the moment) but I think he’s a sneaky option today. With David Price throwing batting practice to his teammates on the other side of this game, I think Happ stops Boston’s nine-game winning streak tonight. 

Steven Matz, NYM (vs. WAS) (DK: $5.9K, FD: $7.8K)

Washington is struggling right now. There’s no question about it. They showed some signs of life over the weekend in a crazy series with the Marlins where they needed double-digit runs in two of the three games to get victories, but outside of that, the runs scored has been low for a team with some of the names they have in this lineup. For a team with World Series aspirations to start the year, they are just playing .500 baseball a few days before the All-Star break. I like Matz today for two reasons. First, he’s crazy cheap, which helps minimize the risk. We don’t need a big score from him to return value. Second, because of his ability to hold down left-handed batters, which happen to make up the majority of Washington’s biggest weapons. He has a less than ideal 4.28 xFIP and 18.8% strikeout rate against lefties, but he also has a solid 1.08 WHIP, an incredible 99.2% LOB%, only 8.9% hard contact, and a 74.1% groundball rate. Now, given the low .222 BABIP, I would expect that LOB% to decrease and that hard contact to increase, but his groundball rate is real as that’s been his bread and butter since he started in this league. Opposing left-handed batters have just a .081 xISO and .273 xwOBA against him this season. This is a tough ask for Harper, Soto, Eaton, and Murphy today. Matz is a bit more vulnerable to righties, with a 4.23 xFIP, a higher 1.27 WHIP, and a lower 71.4% LOB% and 45.8% groundball rate. The hard contact also increases to 38.4%. Right-handed hitters have a .183 xISO and .323 xwOBA against him. Over the past month, Matz has allowed 90 batted balls, of which 51.1% have gone for grounders, only 24.4% have been hard-hits and 22.2% have been soft contact. He has an average distance of 188.3 feet and only 1 barreled ball during that span. The Nationals are hitting just .190 against him in 59 at-bats which is a large enough sample size for me to take notice. He’s a huge underdog today since his teammates are facing Scherzer, but I’m not concerned about missing out on the win bonus here with his price tag being so low. I’m unlikely to use him on FanDuel, but I think he makes for an excellent SP2 on DraftKings in tournaments. 

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Anthony Rendon, WAS (vs. Steven Matz): Yes, I did just recommend Matz as a value pitching option. This slate is very, very limited on value pitching, so if you decide to pay down, there is no perfect solution. Overall, Matz can exceed value on his low price tag, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he’ll give up a few runs along the way. He’s allowing a 15.5% HR/FB rate on 37% fly balls and a 38.4% hard contact rate to right-handed batters, who have a .183 xISO against him this season. Rendon, a career lefty masher, has a .240 ISO and 47.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this year. Best of all, Matz throws a sinker, curveball, and changeup most often to righties. To say Rendon obliterates those pitch types would be an understatement. This season, he has a .400 xISO against sinkers, a .555 xISO against changeups, and a .923 xISO against sliders. Obviously, those numbers aren’t sustainable in the long run, but still, you get the idea.

Starling Marte, PIT (vs. Wade Miley): Miley will make his return from the 60-day disabled list today to take on the Pirates in Pittsburgh. If we go back to the beginning of last season, he has a 20.3% HR/FB rate and is giving up 1.61 HR/9 to right-handed batters, who have a .183 xISO against him. Marte has a .211 ISO and 34% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Miley throws mainly sliders and fastballs to righties, which are both pitches that Marte performs well against. He has a .291 xISO with an 89.6 mph aEV against sliders and a .368 xISO against fastballs this season.

Joc Pederson, LAD (vs Tyson Ross): The highest HR/FB rate against left-handed batting on this slate belongs to? Yup, Tyson Ross. That will not help him against this Dodgers team with a bunch of left-handed power. In addition to the high HR/FB rate, he also has a very high 39.1% hard contact rate and a low 18.9% strikeout rate to lefties. Not good. Joc Jams is standing out today with his massive .310 ISO and 43.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also profiles well against Ross’s pitch types, which are a fastball (45.5%) and slider (43.7%). Pederson has a .360 xISO against fastballs and a .390 xISO against sliders this season.

Teoscar Hernandez, TOR (vs. David Price): Price is allowing 43% fly balls to right-handed batters, of which 12.7% go for home runs with 33.3% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .205 xISO against him this season. There are actually several Blue Jays who have home run potential tonight but Hernandez is standing out among them. He has a .275 ISO with 31.3% hard-hits against left-handed pitching this season. Price throws a two-seam fastball, cutter, and changeup most often. Hernandez has a ridiculous .512 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .350 xISO against cutters, and a less impressive .153 xISO against changeups (although a .210 ISO currently). Plus, Price throws the changeup less than 20% of the time anyway.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day:

Yonder Alonso, CLE (vs. Luis Severino): If you want to be different in tournaments, you’re going to have to dig deep and find some batters with upside potential against good pitchers. Alonso is a good place to start today. The one red flag in Severino’s numbers is a 34.8% hard contact rate he’s allowing to left-handed batters. Alonso has a .186 ISO and 40.1% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. Better yet, Severino’s two main pitches against lefties are a fastball and a slider. Alonso hits both of these very well including a huge .436 xISO against sliders and a .207 xISO against fastballs.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. David Price): Two years ago I would have put Price right up there with the rest of the studs on today’s slate. Today, he was the first person I noticed that I wanted to use hitters against. This is a bad matchup for him as the Blue Jays will return to an American League park and get their DH back. This means both Smoak and Morales will be in the lineup and bat from the right-side. Granderson should sit as well and be replaced by Pillar. This, in all likelihood, will be a completely right-handed lineup. Price allows 12.7% HR/FB on 43% fly balls with 33.3% hard contact. Opposing right-handed batters have a .205 xISO and .337 xwOBA against him this season. Luke Maile was in the lineup last night and if he makes it again today, he’s a great, cheap upside part of a stack with his .282 ISO and .392 wOBA (limited plate appearances). We talked about Hernandez already, he’s one of my favorite bats on the slate. Solarte .237 ISO, Travis .234 ISO, and Smoak .344 wOBA are also all on the radar against left-handed pitching. Morales doesn’t have fantastic power numbers, but the BABIP is low at .273 and he has 42.9% hard-hits, which suggests some positive regression is in store.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Tyson Ross): After a few nights in a row against left-handed pitching, the Dodgers should get back to their usual business of ruining the lives of right-handers. As a team, they have a .196 ISO, .332 wOBA, 110 wRC+, and 36.3% hard-hits against righties. Ross allows 39% hard contact to both sides of the plate with opposing lefties having a .174 xISO and a .362 xwOBA and opposing righties having a .164 xISO and only .298 xwOBA. So, we are prioritizing the lefties first, which won't be a problem with Muncy (.335 ISO, .418 wOBA), Pederson (.310 ISO, .390 wOBA), Bellinger (.251 ISO, .351 wOBA), and Grandal (.243 ISO, .360 wOBA) all at the top of this order. Andrew Toles is back with the club. He’s only played in one game so far this season, but dating back to the start of last year, he has a .191 ISO and .336 wOBA in 101 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so he’s firmly in play as well. I wouldn’t leave out the right-handed batters because, despite the below average expected ISO and wOBA, Ross has a super low .193 BABIP, which suggests serious regression is going to hit him. Hernandez (.250 ISO, .338 wOBA), Puig (.228 ISO, .368 wOBA), Taylor (.197 ISO, .345 wOBA), Kemp (.189 ISO, .360 wOBA), and Turner (low numbers this season but he’s starting to heat up and has a .347 wOBA going back to the start of 2017) are all very much in play. This is my top stack of the day.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Jameson Taillon): Taillon is bad against left-handed batters, which makes this an awful spot for him with the likes of Shaw, Thames, Yelich, and Miller all in this lineup. He has a 4.62 xFIP with only 17.5% strikeouts and 10.5% walks. The WHIP is high at 1.51 and he allows 13.6% HR/FB and 32.7% hard contact against lefties. Thames (.331 ISO, .393 wOBA), Shaw (.281 ISO, .374 wOBA), Yelich (.197 ISO, .374 wOBA), and Brad Miller (.332 wOBA) are the priority plays here. At this point, even though Taillon is much better against right-handed batters, I can’t leave Aguilar out of any Milwaukee stacks. He has a .318 ISO and .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Broxton (.233 ISO) and Braun (.185 ISO) are in play as well, but again, I would do your best to focus on the lefties and Aguilar. This isn't the best park and Taillon isn't the worst pitcher, so I won't go heavy here. But I can see a scenario where Taillon gets ownership because of the lack of value pitching, so I'll gladly go against the field with Brewers bats if that happens.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Tyler Skaggs): I like Skaggs a lot as a pitcher but he’s currently “penciled in” as the starter tonight. I’ve seen that headline on every story that I’ve read about him today. What that’s telling me is they aren’t 100% confident in his health right now. This would be his first start back from the disabled list (he’s only missed the minimum time so far). I could definitely see a situation today where he’s either a late scratch or he goes out there and doesn’t feel right and has a very early hook. DraftKings priced him way down today at $7.7K and is tempting people to roster him as a pitcher. I think people will take the bait, so I’m going to go ahead and load up on Seattle instead. If Skaggs does happen to get the early hook, then we’d be looking at a game against the Angels bullpen. They have a 4.16 xFIP and allow 14.4% HR/FB and 38.6% hard contact. I’d be thrilled if this turned into a bullpen game. Since we can’t count on that, let's take a look at Skaggs. I do see a couple of red flags we can try to exploit. First off, surprisingly, he’s allowing a .210 xISO to left-handed batters this season. Kyle Seager has a .185 ISO and .342 wOBA so I like him quite a bit. The expected ISO and wOBA is better against right-handed batters for Skaggs, but he does still allow 38% hard contact. That makes Nelson Cruz and his .384 ISO and .436 wOBA against left-handed pitching a favorite play of mine today. Those two are the priorities for me. After them, we have Segura with a .177 ISO, .389 wOBA, Healy had a .173 ISO, and Haniger, who has a lower ISO but a .357 wOBA. All those guys are on my radar today.   

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

New York Yankees (vs. Corey Kluber): I think Kluber might be broken or hurt. Something has been off with him recently but nobody, from what I’ve been able to find, is talking about it. Over the past month, he’s 2-2 in five starts with a 4.39 ERA and 4.22 xFIP. He’s had only 20 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched (6.75 K/9 during that span) while allowing 1.69 HR/9 and a 71.4% LOB%. Plus, the BABIP is low at .240, so he’s actually been getting a bit lucky despite these numbers. Does that sound like a pitcher that you want to spend over $10K on today? Me neither. It sounds more like a pitcher that should be priced in the $7K to $8K range, that I’d potentially look to stack against. When I look at his season splits, a couple of potential red flags are the 34% hard contact to lefties and the 38.3% hard contact to righties. He’s also got an 18.8% HR/FB rate on 31.6% fly balls to lefties and a better, but still above average, 12.9% HR/FB rate on 33.3% fly balls to righties. Opposing right-handed batters have a fairly high .171 xISO against him. That's not good considering all the power righties he's going up against today. The Yankees also profile really well against Kluber’s pitch types. His three primary pitches are a cutter, sinker and curveball. Here are some notable players against the cutter: Judge (.420 xwOBA), Andujar (.401 xISO, .437 xwOBA), Neil Walker (.590 xwOBA), Bird (.558 xISO, .404 xwOBA). Against the sinker: Judge: (.501 xISO, .527 xwOBA), Gregorius (.389 xwOBA), Andujar (.241 xISO), Hicks (.268 xISO, .385 xwOBA), Walker (.439 xISO, .645 xwOBA). Finally, the curveball: Stanton (.472 xISO, .442 xwOBA), Judge (.669 xISO, .641 xwOBA), Gregorius (.337 xISO, .388 xwOBA), Bird (.269 xISO). Again, don’t go crazy here, but if you’re playing a contest where you need to be different, there’s a scenario where the Yankees can get to Kluber. Oh, and might I add, the Indians bullpen is horrible. 

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  

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