I actually like the pitching today! Not like I had to spend four hours of research to come up with a couple of arms I feel “fairly confident” in, but more like there were several arms (even outside of the top two) that stood out to me right away and my research backed up my initial thought process. That hasn’t happened in what feels like forever. Hopefully it’s a good sign. Hope you guys are having a good week, we’ve got a solid 11-game slate ahead of us on this Wednesday night. As far as pitching goes, I’m going to exclude both Sale and deGrom from the article today. It’s not because I don’t like them (I do) but it’s because they are a bit obvious and you know they are firmly in play on any slate. There are some other options I really like in the higher priced tier that I’d rather spend a little time on and then you can use that information to weigh against your thoughts on Sale and deGrom and make a decision. Sale is the most talented of those two with a better SIERA, higher strikeout rate, and higher swinging strikes. But, deGrom has a much better matchup, against a Philadelphia team that has the highest strikeout rate in baseball, it’s in New York, which is a pitcher’s park, and he’s $1K less than Sale is. If you asked me to choose between the two of them, I would take the savings with deGrom today and it’s a pretty easy decision in my opinion. In terms of bats, this is a Coors slate once again, so we have that to consider. We also have the Red Sox facing Bartolo Colon at Fenway Park, so that’s basically a Coors game for Boston as well. There are plenty of spots to attack for offense today and I’ll do my best to cover the ones I like most. Looking at the weather, another picture perfect day around the country with absolutely zero threats of rain at this point. The temperatures have cooled off a bit compared to yesterday, but there’s still some heat that will boost the bats including in Baltimore (88 degrees), Atlanta (89 degrees), Colorado (94 degrees), and LA (85 degrees). The hot temperatures at Coors really stand out today with there not being a ton of other favorable hitting environments today. I’m excited about this slate so let’s not waste any more time!

Power Pitching Options

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (vs. TOR) (DK: $10K, FD: $9K)

This is a fantastic matchup for Foltynewicz against a right-handed heavy Toronto lineup. Since this game is in Atlanta, the Blue Jays lose the DH spot. That means either Smoak or Morales will likely end up on the bench (Morales sat last night) and it removes a very good left-handed bat from the lineup. It leaves them with Granderson, Solarte, and whichever of those two plays, and the rest will be right-handed. This is outstanding news for Folty who is lights out this season against right-handed batters. He has a 2.85 xFIP with 30.5% strikeouts and an elite 0.99 WHIP. The GB/FB rate is average, he gives up below average home runs, and opposing right-handed batters have just a .117 xISO and .263 xwOBA against him this season. It’s not like he’s terrible against left-handed batters either, the 4.09 xFIP and .236 BABIP both suggest regression, so that’s a red flag, and he does walk 13.9% of lefties, but he still has plenty of upside with a 28.4% strikeout rate. Opposing left-handed batters have only a .150 xISO and .314 xwOBA. Given those numbers, the left-handed batters don’t scare me, I’d just prefer right-handed batters instead and that’s what he’ll get the most of day. This is a great example of how badly an American League team can be impacted when playing in a National League park, as Toronto will lose an essential part of the middle of its order in these cases. That’s perfect for Folynewicz, who will gladly take advantage of the situation. I have a feeling I’m going to end up here quite a bit today as the significant $2K-$3K savings off of deGrom and Sale open up some room for bats. I wouldn’t say he has the same upside as those guys, but in this matchup, I think it’s close enough where you are okay choosing him instead. His price on FanDuel is extremely appealing, where he’s the sixth most expensive arm on the board. He’s a -156 favorite today and I really like him for both cash games and tournaments on both sites.

Kenta Maeda, LAD (@SDP) (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.5K)

The issue with Maeda is how long will the leash be. Dave Roberts has a tendency to get cute with his pitchers. He’s very protective of them and tries to keep pitch counts down whenever possible. It can make it frustrating to roster these guys sometimes. It does seem like, however, that Maeda is fully healthy again. He’s coming off a streak of three strong starts with 35, 26, and 26 DraftKings points and he went seven innings in two of those games and 5.2 innings in the other. His price has also dropped pretty dramatically on DraftKings, despite the recent success. He was $11K just two starts ago, dropped to $10K in his last start, and is now $9.3K despite pitching well in all those starts. On FanDuel, where he’s less appealing today but still in play, his price has steadily increased during that same stretch going from $8.9K, to $9K, and now $9.5K. Seems like some inefficient pricing on DraftKings that we need to take advantage of. This is the best matchup out of all those recent starts, taking on a Padres team that strikes out 25.9% of the time to right-handed pitching (second highest on the slate) with just a .122 ISO, .287 wOBA, and 81 wRC+. When you take Villanueva and Renfroe’s power against left-handed bats out of the equation, San Diego’s team ISO drops significantly. Maeda has the strikeout upside to flirt with double-digit whiffs today, he’s at 28.7% so far this season, including 13.9% swinging strikes (fourth most on this slate behind only Sale, deGrom, and Peralta), and a comfortable 3.53 SIERA. When we check out the splits, he has a 3.84 xFIP against left-handed batters, with 24.7% strikeouts. A couple of red flags here including 10% walks, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 67.6% LOB% but I’m less concerned about those against the Padres than I would be against other teams. Opposing lefties have an average .177 xISO and .336 xwOBA against him. When taking on right-handed batters, Maeda is excellent, with a 2.96 xFIP and 32.8% strikeouts. The red flags I mentioned before disappear to this side of the plate, as the walks drop to 8.2%, the WHIP falls to 1.06, and the LOB% increases to 81.8%. Opposing right-handed batters have a .144 xISO and a .274 xwOBA against him which are both very good. In the past month, Maeda has allowed 55 batted balls, of which only 18.2% have been hard contact (23.6% soft contact so he’s actually allowing a lot of medium contact), the average exit velocity has been 87.6 mph, and the average distance has been 192.9 feet. Honestly, if Maeda was coached by anyone else, I’d call him pretty close to a lock today at this price and in this matchup, but the chance of an early hook does increase the risk. Still, I’m likely going to be heavy on him today. He’s one of my favorite pitchers on DraftKings today, for cash and tournaments, as both an SP1 or an SP2, and I think he’s in play on FanDuel. The price is slightly less appealing but I definitely wouldn’t tell you that you’re crazy if you roster him over there. I’m sure I’ll have shares of him as well.

Value Pitching Options

Marco Gonzales, SEA (@LAA) (DK: $7K, FD: $7.7K)

Gonzales continues to be a rare, low-cost, reliable arm week in and week out. He has a 3.69 SIERA with 21.6% strikeouts and 46% groundballs. Today, he’ll face an Angels team that is really struggling with left-handed pitching this season despite being a lineup that is full of right-handed batters. As we approach the All-Star break, they have just a .150 ISO, .295 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ against lefties this season. Gonzales' last start was against this same team and he went six innings allowing five hits with just one earned run and seven strikeouts. Good enough for 25 DraftKings points and 45 FanDuel points. What stands out to me about Gonzales, particularly in this matchup, is his reverse splits. Against lefties, he has a 3.83 xFIP with a low 16.9% strikeout rate and a very low 2.8% walk rate and 1.08 WHIP. He gets 47.2% groundballs but does allow 41.8% hard contact. Opposing left-handed batters have a .181 xISO and .331 xwOBA against him. When facing right-handed batters, which will be the majority of what he sees today, he has a better 3.38 xFIP with an increased 22.5% strikeout with only 5.5% walks. He continues to get high groundballs at 45.7% and the hard contact rate drops to a more comfortable 33.6%. Right-handed batters have a .170 xISO and .337 xwOBA against him. Basically, we have an average, to slightly above average, pitcher here. His xFIP to both sides of the plate is solid. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters. He gets a decent amount of groundballs, and he’s allowing average expected ISO and wOBA to both sides of the plate. Ideally, we’d like his strikeout rate to be a bit higher for DFS purposes, especially when facing an Angels team that only strikes out 20% of the time to left-handed pitching, but that’s really his only red flag. He’s not going to blow you away, and he’s unlikely to win you the slate, but he’s also very unlikely to kill your lineup, and he opens up enough salary for you to fit the pieces around him that you need who will win you the slate. I don’t think you need him on FanDuel today, as it’s looking like it will be a bit easier to fit in higher upside pitchers that are still in good matchups, but I love him as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments on DraftKings.

Sonny Gray, NYY (@BAL) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $7.3K)

Admittedly, Gray has been rather bad recently so I can’t recommend this as anything more than a GPP play. He’s coming off of two starts in a row where he scored negative DraftKings points. But, it does lineup as a really good spot for him and with his recent poor performances we are getting a slight discount today which further increases the potential for him to exceed value. He’ll get a lineup with eight right-handed bats and the one left-handed bat of Chris Davis. Against righties, he has a 4.35 xFIP (not great but well below his 6.15 ERA so at least we are moving in the right direction), 21.1% strikeouts, and 50% groundballs. Opposing right-handed batters have a .186 xISO, which is below his current .194 ISO allowed and a .329 xwOBA, which is below his current .355 wOBA allowed. Plus, the BABIP is high at .328. We have a lot of signs pointing toward some positive regression for Gray. He’s got the xFIP, which is nearly two runs lower than the ERA. He has the expected ISO and wOBA that are both below the current ISO and wOBA, and he has the BABIP which is above average, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky at this point in the season. What’s really standing out to me, however, is how the Orioles profile against Gray’s pitch types. Gray primarily throws a two-seam fastball and a slider, which Baltimore struggles with. If we look at the slider only Jones (.235 xISO, .343 xwOBA) and Machado (.317 xISO, .424 xwOBA) stand out as potential threats. The remaining members of the lineup including Mancini (.088 xISO, .310 xwOBA), Davis (.077 xISO, .121 xwOBA), Schoop (.049 xISO, .213 xwOBA), Trumbo (.069 xISO, .210 xwOBA), Beckham (.047 xISO, .118 xwOBA), Joseph (.087 xISO, .167 xwOBA), and Rickard (.021 xISO, .177 xwOBA) can’t hit a slider to save their lives. The results against the two-seam fastball are similar with Machado and Jones, plus Mancini and Davis, all having at least some success against that pitch but then the remaining lineup really struggles. This will be the third time he faces the Orioles this season. In the first matchup, he went six innings allowing four hits, three earned runs with four strikeouts, while picking up the win and quality start. Good enough for 16 DraftKings points. In the second start on June 1st, he went six innings, allowing four hits with just one earned run and six strikeouts while again earning the win and quality start. I understand, there’s nothing fun about clicking that plus sign next to Gray’s name and putting any kind of real dollars behind it, but this does shape up as one of the better matchups Gray will get all season. I like him as a GPP option today, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

This is a Coors Field slate, so I will not be including any players from that game in the home run watchlist today. They are too obvious. Let's look around at the other games and see where we can find some long balls:

J.D. Martinez, BOS (vs. Bartolo Colon): Yea, yea I know. Way to state the obvious right? I’m already excluding Coors Field. What else do you want from me? In all seriousness, I do my best not to call Martinez every night because, at this point, it’s pretty obvious he’s on the radar. This is the first time I’ve written about him on the home run watchlist in quite a while but he’s on here today for good reason: Bartolo Colon. He’s allowing 2.67 HR/9 this season to right-handed batters with a .282 xISO and a 46.3% hard contact rate. Martinez has a .355 ISO and 49.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He will add at least one more on to his MLB leading 28 home runs today.

Yoan Moncada, CWS (vs. Luke Weaver): Weaver has been very inconsistent recently. Two starts ago, he was shelled and nearly lost his rotation spot. Then, in his most recent start, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning against the Giants. It’s hard to say which version of Weaver we will get today, but what I do know for sure is he struggles with left-handed batters. He’s allowing 38.7% fly balls and 15.5% HR/FB totaling 1.7 HR/9 against lefties, who have a .225 xISO against him this season. Moncada stands out as a one-off option with home run upside today. He has a .207 ISO and 42.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also profiles well against Weaver’s two most often used pitches (fastball and changeup) against left-handed batters. Moncada has a .368 xISO against fastballs and a .341 xISO against changeups this season.

Francisco Lindor, CLE (vs. Tyler Mahle): The Indians have been all over my radar during this series with the Reds and it’s not stopping today. Mahle has some ugly numbers against lefties including 44.7% fly balls with a massive 21.8% HR/FB and 46.5% hard contact. This has resulted in his left-handed opponents hitting 2.35 HR/9 with a .258 xISO against him. Lindor has a .287 ISO with 41.8% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. Mahle’s three main pitches are a fastball, which he throws 70% of the time despite allowing a .272 ISO with it, a changeup, and a slider. Lindor has a .257 xISO against fastballs, a .381 xISO against changeups, and a .348 xISO against sliders.

Ryon Healy, SEA (vs. Jaime Barria): This isn’t the best ballpark for home run potential but Barria’s .337 xISO allowed to right-handed batters should solve that issue. He’s giving up 46.7% fly balls of which 16.7% go for home runs with 42.2% hard contact. This has resulted in 2.2 HR/9 from right-handed batters against him this season. Of all the right-handed power bats available to us on Seattle, I like Ryon Healy to put one in the seats today. He has a slightly better .243 ISO and 39.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching than Mitch Haniger. Barria’s primary pitches to righties are a slider and a fastball. Healy is slightly better than Nelson Cruz against these pitches (when they come from right-handed pitchers) with a .242 xISO against both of them.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day:

Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (vs. Vince Velasquez): I’m sorry for suggesting two-second basemen in the same article. I got some feedback from a trusted source that I should try to mix up the positions on the home run watchlist when possible to make it easier for you to build lineups. This one is standing out to me today, however, as I think people generally shy away from using hitters against Velasquez because of his overall talent and don’t realize just how much he struggles with lefties. He has a lot of strikeout upside but allows 44.3% fly balls and 19.6% HR/FB which results in 2.08 HR/9 to left-handed batters. Cabrera is a switch hitter who has a .239 ISO and 45% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He has a lot of power against Velasquez’s pitch types (fastball, curveball, two-seam fastball) as well. Cabrera has a .238 xISO against fastballs, a .264 xISO against curveballs, and a .390 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

In addition to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, I’m going to add Boston to the exclusion list today as I actually think they might be even more obvious than Coors Field. Bartolo Colon can’t pitch anymore. Stack the Red Sox #analysis.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Carlos Rodon): Not a good matchup for Rodon against a right-handed heavy Cardinals team today. He has massive regression coming against righties with a 4.55 ERA but a 6.13 xFIP and only a .238 BABIP. Plus, he’s only striking out 16.5% of right-handed bats and walking them 10.7% of the time. All of this spells doom for him today. Look at this list of Cardinals batters and their hard-hit rates against left-handed pitching this season: Carpenter 52.3% (ironically, he’s also a lefty but don’t worry Rodon allows a .257 xISO and .370 xwOBA to lefties this season), Ozuna 48.3%, Gyorko 46.7%, Pham 45.1%, Molina 43.6%, Fowler 40%, Munoz 39.3%, Martinez 36.2%, Bader 34.1%, and DeJong 31.8%. The Cardinals are priced to sell today, which could make ownership a problem. But I'm still planning to buy, especially as some value plays in cash games.

New York Yankees (vs. Dylan Bundy): I’m a Bundy fan. He’s never going to live down that game against Kansas City earlier this season, but for the most part, he’s been a solid pitcher this season. But with that said, he struggles with right-handed power and that will not do him any favors against the Yankees today. He has plenty of strikeout upside, but a 44.8% fly ball rate with 19.6% HR/FB which has resulted in 1.84 HR/9 against righties. They have a .204 xISO against him. All the usual suspects are in play such as Judge (.289 ISO, .410 wOBA), Austin (.235 ISO), Higashioka (.235 ISO) or Romine (.225 ISO, .373 wOBA), Andujar (.199 ISO, .344 wOBA), and Stanton (.193 ISO). Don’t leave out the lefties either as they have a .273 xISO and .392 xwOBA against Bundy this season. That puts Gregorius (.241 ISO, .344 wOBA), Bird (.220 ISO), Hicks (.212 ISO, .354 wOBA), and Gardner (.346 wOBA) all in play as well. I’m prioritizing righties here, despite the higher expected ISO and wOBA to lefties, because the BABIP against righties is very, very low at just .205, whereas the BABIP against lefties is very high at .359. The regression we should expect for him coupled with the poor numbers he’s already giving up against right-handed bats make them the priority but, honestly, both sides are in good spots.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Tyler Mahle): Like I said, I’ve been all over Cleveland so far in this series with the Reds and I’m not planning to stop now. Mahle’s numbers are downright terrible against left-handed batters. The highlights include a 44.7% fly ball rate with 21.8% HR/FB and 46.5% hard contact with a .258 xISO and .378 xwOBA. He’s better against right-handed batters as the xFIP and fly ball rate drop dramatically, but he still allows 37.3% hard contact. Mahle is a candidate to roster when facing a right-handed heavy team (file that one away for another slate) but today, with several left-handed power bats in this lineup, I think this is going to be a long day for him. Everything starts with Lindor for me, who I talked about earlier. His ISO and wOBA are actually lower than Ramirez (.336 ISO, .427 wOBA) but he matches up better with Mahle’s pitch types, so I’m giving him the edge. Brantley is next with his .209 ISO and .384 wOBA, followed by Alonso with a .192 ISO and .346 wOBA. Kipnis doesn’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching this season, but he does smoke fastballs (.226 xISO, .345 xwOBA) and sliders (.245 xISO) which happen to be two of Mahle’s most used pitches against lefties. If you’re rolling out multiple teams, you should definitely include Encarnacion, who has an excellent .267 ISO and .345 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I’m just not prioritizing him over the lefties given Mahle’s splits.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Jaime Barria): This one should go low owned due to the bad ballpark, but Barria’s numbers are tough to ignore. He’s better against lefties with a comfortable xFIP, strikeout rate, and GB/FB rate, but the BABIP is low at .269 and his 195 xISO is significantly higher than his .130 ISO allowed and his .325 xwOBA is significantly higher than his .264 wOBA allowed, so I see some regression here. Against right-handed bats, like several of the ones he’ll face today, he’s screwed. Righties have a .337 xISO and a .435 xwOBA (yes you read those right) to go along with a 5.80 xFIP and only 15.8% strikeouts. Healy, Haniger, and Cruz are a deadly combo today and make an outstanding stack (only tough part is Healy is usually lower in the order). Segura is fine as part of a stack. He doesn’t have much power but a respectable .342 wOBA, so he will hopefully be on base when one of his teammates hits a bomb. Zunino is either going to strikeout four times (35.9% strikeout rate to righties) or hit four home runs (.245 ISO) so use him in stacks if you’re going for the ceiling. As far as lefties, Span, believe it or not, has the highest ISO against right-handed pitching on this team at .250 with a .396 wOBA as well. Seager has some power upside with his .209 ISO. I’ve been burned a couple of times recently stacking against Barria but I’ll continue to play the percentages here as a blowup game is coming. If Seattle is going to be as low owned as I think they are, they’ll likely wind up being my highest owned team today.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Chicago White Sox (vs. Luke Weaver): My initial reaction to this slate was that Weaver looked like a potential value option against the White Sox. I went into detail in yesterday’s article about how using pitchers against them has been a pretty profitable decision for me so far this season. But upon further review, Weaver has some rough numbers against lefties including a 4.74 xFIP, only 18.4% strikeouts, a 1.53 WHIP, and a very low 68.4% LOB. Opposing left-handed batters have a .225 xISO and a .372 xwOBA against him so far this season. I’m not going to go crazy here, as I don’t have a lot of faith in the White Sox offense, but in some large field tourneys, I see some stack potential. I talked about Moncada already who has a .207 ISO, .335 wOBA, and 42.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Daniel Palka (.244 ISO, 36.8% hard-hits), and Yolmer Sanchez (.185 ISO) are on the radar as well. Omar Narvaez makes for an interesting punt catcher with his respectable .339 wOBA and Leury Garcia has a 31% hard-hit rate against righties this season. Plus, you still have Abreu and Davidson who have plenty of power upside to help round out some stacks. Like I said, not going to overload here, but if it looks like a lot of people are having my initial reaction to Weaver and he starts getting some love today, I’ll gladly load up a few extra Chicago stacks as leverage plays.

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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