We've got a full 15-game slate to talk about on this Tuesday edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. At first glance, I was not excited about the pitching options today. But as I went further into my research, I've emerged feeling better than I did when I started. We have two very expensive, but worthy, high-priced arms today. I'm going to talk about the one I like more but, honestly, I don't believe I will wind up using either one today. There are a TON of bats to like, including two teams that crush left-handed pitching facing off in Coors Field, the Yankees facing a pitcher who struggles with right-handed power bats, and the Twins facing a pitcher coming off the DL who gives up massive hard-contact to both sides of the plate. I think paying down at pitcher is a viable strategy today, so I'll try to give you some tools to help out with that. We've got plenty of hot weather around the league, especially in some hitter-friendly parks like Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Colorado (the hottest of them all, 96 degrees!). You'll notice a correlation between my stacking options and those parks. No threats of rain and the only notable winds are blowing in at Cleveland. We've got a lot to cover today, so let's get to it!

Power Pitching Options

Trevor Bauer, CLE (vs. CIN) (DK: $13.6K, FD: $12K)

Bauer should have made the All-Star team outright instead of needing Verlander to be removed in order to make the roster, but he’s still deserving, so I’m glad he’ll get to make his first appearance this year. He has a 3.05 SIERA including a 31.3% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging strikes. He does allow a lot of hard contact (35.4%) but that’s not uncommon for someone who throws as hard as he does, and his ability to limit home runs (only 4.9% HR/FB) is impressive. When thinking about the Reds, your first concern is the left-handed power bats of Schebler, Votto, and Gennett. They shouldn’t be a problem today, as Bauer will bring a 2.91 xFIP with 33% strikeouts, 13.3% swinging strikes, and an excellent 82.2% LOB against left-handed batters into this matchup. Opposing lefties have just a .097 xISO and .257 xwOBA against him. When facing right-handed batters, which is mainly just Eugenio Suarez in this case, Bauer has a 3.10 xFIP with 29.9% strikeouts and 14.6% swinging strikes. Right-handed hitters have shown a little more power against him, with a .165 xISO (still below average) and only a .292 xwOBA. The hard contact I mentioned earlier is really the only red flag, but the very low HR/FB rate and the low expected ISO and wOBA to both sides of the plate eliminate any concerns I have about that. BABIP is also right on the money at .300 to lefties and .311 to righties, so there is nothing that would indicate regression. In the past month, Bauer has allowed 76 batted balls, of which 25% were soft contact and only one of them was barreled. His average exit velocity during that span was 85.4 mph and the average distance is only 197.1 feet. I wish the Reds struck out a little more against right-handed pitching (20.9%) but Bauer more than has the ability to increase that number today. They also have a low .144 ISO, .319 wOBA, and 97 wRC+. There’s no need to overthink this one. As an added bonus, it’s going to be on the cooler side in Cleveland today compared to much of the league, with first pitch temperatures around 80 degrees and the winds are expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph, giving Bauer an additional boost he doesn’t need. He’s the top pitcher on the board today for both cash games and tournaments if you can afford him.

Miles Mikolas, STL (@CWS) (DK: $9.9K, FD: $8.6K)

Generally speaking, using pitchers against the Chicago White Sox is a profitable decision. Mikolas is far from my favorite pitcher to use in DFS, but there are a lot of things I like about this spot today. He is more of a control guy without much strikeout upside, which generally makes him more of a floor/cash game option, but he will face a White Sox team that has a 25.5% strikeout rate and only 6.5% walks against right-handed pitching. This should give Mikolas a higher ceiling than we are used to considering his elite 3/9% walk rate, and allow him to pitch deeper into the game. As a result, he's firmly on my radar for today. He has a very comfortable 3.97 SIERA with a 50.1% groundball rate and a solid 1.03 WHIP. If we look at his splits, lefties are where he has some trouble, with a 4.05 xFIP with only 14% strikeouts. He does allow some power, as opposing left-handed bats have a .200 xISO against him, but also only a below average .327 xwOBA. He throws a lot of curveballs and sliders to lefties and there is nobody on the White Sox who matches up well with those pitch types. Moncada has the best numbers against sliders with a .158 xISO and .277 xwOBA and Palka has the best numbers against curveballs with just a .120 xISO and .184 xwOBA. If Mikolas goes heavy on those pitches today, he should be able to keep that .200 xISO he’s allowing under control. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.34 xFIP with a more respectable 20.8% strikeout rate and still less than 5% walks. His LOB% is impressive at 82.1% and he’s getting 57.4% groundballs with only 26.4% hard contact. Righties have only a .096 xISO and .249 xwOBA against him this season. Similar to Bauer, his statcast numbers have been impressive over the past month. He’s allowed 89 batted balls, of which 48.3% have been groundballs, 30.3% have been soft contact (that’s amazing) and they’ve only had an average exit velocity of 84.5 mph. This really lines up as a very good matchup for him. If he can avoid damage against the left-handed batters using his curveball and slider, he should be able to keep this game well under control. His low strikeouts will get a nice lift today against this very strikeout happy team. He gets some solid pitching weather tonight as well, where it will be only 79 degrees at first pitch. He’s a -166 favorite and I like him as an SP1 tonight (especially in cash games) even for tournaments, where I think his ceiling will be higher than usual and he’ll open up some additional salary for bats, which are everywhere today.

Value Pitching Options

Rich Hill, LAD (@SD) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8K)

Since returning from the disabled list in mid-June, Hill has been very solid. He’s 1-1 in four starts, with a 3.68 xFIP, only seven earned runs, four walks, and 26 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of work. Because he missed some time in the middle of the season (about a month) the sample size is a bit smaller with him than everyone else on this slate, so I’ve pulled numbers for both this year and last to give us a little more to work with. He has a solid 3.70 SIERA with 28.5% strikeouts (although only 10.5% swinging strikes). He does allow above average fly balls at 44.8% including 13.6% HR/FB and 34.3% hard contact, so that’s something we’ll need to keep an eye on as we dig more. Hill has reverse splits, so against lefties he has a pretty ugly 5.82 xFIP and 14.4% walk rate. He does still maintain an above average 22.7% strikeout rate and only allow 26% hard contact. The hard contact helps limit home runs and any major damage, as opposing lefties have just an average .176 xISO against him despite an above average .365 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, things dramatically improve. Hill has a 3.49 xFIP with 30.3% strikeouts and only 6.9% walks. Home runs are still potentially an issue, with a 45.1% fly ball rate, 14.2% HR/FB, and a .176 xISO, but the xwOBA drops pretty dramatically to just .285. Bottom line, Hill’s numbers don’t get you very excited. There are certainly some positive marks on his resume, such as the strikeout upside, but home runs are a little concerning with the high fly balls, high HR/FB rates, and slightly above average expected ISO. The good news, and perhaps the biggest reason I like him today, is the matchup with the Padres, who strikeout 24.4% of the time to left-handed pitching with an average .163 ISO and well below average .298 wOBA and 89 wRC+. I like Hill to flirt with 7+ strikeouts today while keeping the game under control in this pitcher-friendly park, which should be more than enough to pay back his reasonable salary. He’s a comfortable -163 favorite and firmly in play in tournaments on FanDuel, or as an SP2 in both cash and tournaments on DraftKings.

Enyel De Los Santos, PHI (@NYM) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $5.5K)

It’s always difficult to recommend a pitcher making their major league debut. The nerves he will undoubtedly be feeling tonight are enough of a risk before we even get into the numbers. But this kid is standing out on a slate where I’m not in love with anything in the value-tier. I think you could take some shots on him tonight. From his scouting report, I learned his fastball has an average velocity of 94.5 mph and can reach as high as 98 mph at times. He has extremely good swing and miss abilities with that fastball and a very effective changeup that throws hitters off. He has a less effective curveball, which is considered not major league ready at this point. He’s having a lot of success so far this season, with a 9-3 record in 16 starts. He has a minor league-leading 1.89 ERA and a respectable 3.89 xFIP. His strikeout rate is slightly above average at 22.7% (he has 87 strikeouts in 95.1 innings pitched this season), an excellent 1.08 WHIP, and an elite 92.6% LOB this season. He’s forcing an average 42.8% groundball rate with a below average 9.8 HR/FB. I pulled some splits from Baseball Reference as well to give us a better picture. Against righties, he’s allowing a .188 BA, .266 OBP, .295 SLG, and just a .562 OPS. Outstanding. Against lefties, which he’ll see several of today facing the Mets, he’s allowing a .234 BA, .304 OBP, .383 SLG, and .688 OPS. Really good numbers there. The only red flag I see in the splits is low BABIP (.234 against right-handed batters and .264 against left-handed batters). Overall, there’s very little not to like here aside from the fact that he’s making his major league debut, and that increases the risk. I’m planning to plant my flag here, especially on FanDuel, where he’s an absolute steal at just $5.5K. There are so many bats I want to play today and he’s the ticket to help me do exactly that. As an added bonus, he’s facing off with another, lesser-known prospect, also making his major league debut. As a result, Santos is a healthy -120 favorite. He’s on my tournament radar today on both sites.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

This is a Coors Field slate, so I will not be including any players from that game in the home run watchlist today. They are too obvious. Let's look around at the other games and see where we can find some long balls:

Mitch Moreland, BOS (vs. Yovani Gallardo): We’ll talk more about Mr. Gallardo and how terrible his night is going to be in a little while. For now, all you need to know is he’s allowing a miserable 2.92 HR/9 including a .213 xISO to left-handed batters. I like several left-handed bats for the Red Sox today including Benintendi, Devers, and Bradley Jr, but Moreland stands out above them all. He has a .249 ISO and 38.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also profiles extremely well against Gallardo’s pitch types (two-seam fastball, fastball, and slider). Moreland has a .368 xISO against the fastball with an 88.6 mph aEV, a .479 xISO against the two-seam fastball with an 88 mph aEV, and a .316 xISO against the slider with a 90.8 mph aEV.

Justin Smoak, TOR (vs. Julio Tehran): Here’s a name I haven’t called in quite a while. This is a great spot for Smoak, facing Tehran who is allowing a .239 xISO with 18.9% HR/FB on 42.4% fly balls and 36.4% hard contact to left-handed batters. Smoak has been a bit hot and cold this year but you can’t argue with his .239 ISO and 36.2% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. Tehran throws a fastball 46% of the time, a two-seam fastball 24% of the time and a changeup 13.5% of the time to lefties. Smoak has a .284 xISO against the fastball, a .339 xISO against the two-seam fastball, and a .370 xISO against the changeup.

George Springer, HOU (vs. Sean Manaea): This is not a good matchup for Manaea taking on a right-handed heavy team like the Astros. He only has a 16.4% strikeout rate against righties along with .251 xISO and a massive 41.4% hard contact rate. Springer has a .239 ISO with 32.9% hard-hits against lefties so far this season. Manaea mainly throws a fastball (54%) and a changeup (37%) with the occasional slider (7%) mixed in. Springer has a .354 xISO against fastballs, a .181 xISO against changeups, and a .215 xISO against sliders.

Mike Moustakas, KC (vs. Aaron Slegers): Small sample size on Slegers at the major league level but he does appear to struggle more with left-handed batters. He has a 46.2% hard contact rate, which is very concerning considering he’s allowed nearly 50% fly balls so far. I pulled this and last season’s data to increase the sample size a little more and I found that opposing left-handed batters have a very high .273 xISO against him. Moustakas continues to play out what will likely be his final games in a Royals uniform. He has a .248 ISO and ridiculous 47.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also smashes each of Slegers pitch types including a .264 xISO against fastballs, a .367 xISO against changeups, and a .251 xISO against sliders.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day:

Adam Jones, BAL (vs. Masahiro Tanaka): Tanaka will return from the disabled list after straining both hamstrings running the bases during an interleague game. Before going on the disabled list, he was allowing a .217 xISO including 22.9% HR/FB on 42.5% fly balls and 2.31 HR/9 to right-handed batters. Jones has slightly above average numbers, including a .186 ISO and 32% hard-hit rate against righties this season. But, he also matches up very well with Tanaka’s pitch types. He throws a slider, split-fingered fastball, and fastball most often. Jones has a .235 xISO against the slider, a .283 xISO against the split-fingered fastball, and a .266 xISO against the fastball. As an added bonus, Jones is 11 for 27 with 3 home runs and a .524 ISO against Tanaka in his career.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

I'll exclude both teams at Coors Field from the stack list as well. Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are obviously on the radar tonight. I’m going to focus on other lineups we can potentially use.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Yovani Gallardo): It’s not Coors, but it's close enough in this matchup. Boston will likely gain popularity throughout the day, but with it being such a big slate, ownership isn’t going to be as important as it normally would be in tournaments. Gallardo is allowing a .225 ISO (.213 xISO), .363 wOBA (.379 xwOBA), and 32.5% hard contact to left-handed batters. To right-handed batters, he’s allowing a .233 ISO (.155 xISO), .392 wOBA (.339 xwOBA), and 36.2% hard contact. First observation so far, notice how much lower the expected ISO and wOBA are compared to the current ISO and wOBA against right-handed batters. Gallardo also has a very high .370 BABIP against righties. Meanwhile, the expected ISO is only slightly lower against lefties and the expected wOBA is higher. Plus, the BABIP is only at .278, so we can expect his numbers against left-handed batters to get worse over time. Long story short, I really like the Boston lefties today. Moreland, Benintendi, Devers, and Bradley Jr all profile well against Gallardo’s pitch types. Don’t get cute, Betts and Martinez are still the top plays on this team (Betts is in a heated battle with Arenado for my top play overall). But I’m just saying, I don’t mind trying to get a bit creative with some wrap-around or more bottom of the order stacks as well, to include some of the other guys and make your lineups a bit different. Boston should have a field day in this one.

New York Yankees (vs. Andrew Cashner): Another excellent pivot away from Coors Field is the Yankees taking on poor Andrew Cashner. He is allowing a .233 xISO and .357 xwOBA to lefties and a 183 xISO and .384 xwOBA to righties so far this season. He’s also got a very low 17.7% strikeout rate and a very high 1.56 WHIP, a perfect target for us to stack against. You know the drill by now with the Bronx Bombers, but just in case you need a reminder, here are the players against right-handed pitching this season: Judge (.300 ISO, .416 wOBA), Gregorius (.245 ISO, .343 wOBA), Austin (.235 ISO), Bird (.227 ISO), Hicks (.217 ISO, .357 wOBA), Andujar (.202 ISO, .347 wOBA), Higashioka (.200 ISO), Romine (.194 ISO, .366 wOBA), this is getting ridiculous, Stanton (.183 ISO), and Gardner (.336 wOBA). This doesn't even include Sanchez and Torres, who are both on the disabled list right now! Good luck Cashner. You’re screwed.

Houston Astros (vs. Sean Manaea): Curious how this one will be viewed. To me, this is a very obvious spot for Houston but it’s possible people are still viewing Manaea as a more top end pitcher. I'm not buying it, as the Astros simply have far too many right-handed batters for Manaea to have a prayer in this game. He has a 4.32 xFIP and only 16.4% strikeouts with a massive 41.3% hard contact rate. Opposing right-handed batters have a .251 xISO and a .360 xwOBA against him so far this season. Bregman grades out as my favorite player from this team with a .288 ISO and .427 wOBA against righties. The other priority players from this team include Gattis (.284 ISO, .350 wOBA), Springer (.239 ISO, .368 wOBA), and Stassi (.231 ISO, .387 wOBA). After them, there are some secondary options as well including Gurriel (.345 wOBA) and Altuve (.330 wOBA) and even Reddick (.206 ISO, .352 wOBA) who has great numbers against left-handed pitching despite being a lefty. I know there’s a lot of hype around Tucker (who let me down big time last night) but this is a lefty vs lefty matchup, so I don’t plan to go there myself.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Ian Kennedy): After getting completely shut down by Danny Duffy last night, I’m hoping people will completely cross the Twins off their list today (although their Vegas implied total will probably prevent this). The reality is, however, they are a completely different team when facing a right-handed pitcher instead of a left-handed pitcher. As expected, Kennedy will come off the 10-day disabled list after only missing one start. This is fantastic news for the Twins. He’s allowing a .260 xISO, .351 xwOBA, and a 41.2% hard contact rate against lefties (whom he’ll see a lot of today) and a .260 xISO, .368 xwOBA, and a 37% hard contact rate against righties. I’m expecting another left-handed heavy lineup for Minnesota, with basically everyone hitting from the left-side except for Dozier and whichever catcher gets the start. The priorities here are Escobar (.311 ISO, .388 wOBA), Rosario (.264 ISO, .399 wOBA), Dozier (.200 ISO), Polanco (.427 wOBA), and Morrison (.190 ISO). After them, we have a mix of guys with some upside but much lower floors. Cave has a .180 ISO in limited plate appearances, Garver has a .354 wOBA should he start behind the plate, and Astudillo has 50% hard-hits also in limited plate appearances.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Julio Tehran): This is my favorite under-the-radar stack today. Tehran allows a ridiculous amount of hard contact (41.6% to lefties and 36.5% to righties). Opposing left-handed batters have a .239 xISO and .370 xwOBA while opposing right-handed batters have a .189 xISO and .323 xwOBA. There are a bunch of options on the Blue Jays with a ton of power upside we can use, depending on what lineup gets posted. We’ll start with Grichuk, who has been a major bright spot for this team. He has a .283 ISO and .335 wOBA against right-handed pitching. We already discussed Smoak in the home run watchlist, so you know I like him quite a bit. Teoscar Hernandez has a .234 ISO and .343 wOBA, Morales has a .220 ISO, and Granderson has a .216 ISO and .363 wOBA. The best part about these guys is they are affordable. You can also mix in Smith Jr. (.231 ISO, .392 wOBA – 29 plate appearances), Gurriel (.215 ISO – limited plate appearances), and Diaz (.189 ISO) to add some even lower owned, high upside options to your stack.

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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