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We finally made it to Friday. After a week of just awful slates, we have a crazy fun one tonight that is absolutely loaded with arms in every pricing tier and plenty of offense as well. Real quick, before we jump into figuring out how we are going to handle today, I wanted to briefly talk about yesterday. I wrote up Jalen Beeks as a value option on the main slate. Granted, I said he was very high risk, high reward in a poor matchup and I would only use him in large field GPP. But, I ended up stacking against him heavily last night. I always feel a bit guilty when I end up going against my original recommendation because I don’t want any of you to think I’m steering you in the wrong direction purposely. Nobody called me out on this but I know I saw some people in chat yesterday upset about their Beeks’ lineups and I was hoping I wasn’t the reason you ended up there. Once the Sox posted the lineup last night it was an instant red flag, almost like they were planning to lose that game and weren’t worried about it. They had their rookie first basemen, Sam Travis, playing left field (my understanding is he’d never played outfield before), they had J.D Martinez playing the huge right field at Fenway Park, Christian Vasquez and his under .200 batting average was their DH, and Blake Swihart, who is just an awful game manager, was the catcher. I pivoted every Beeks share to Matt Boyd and then stacked up the Tigers as much as possible after I saw this. When a drastic change of heart like this happens I always make sure to tweet out my thoughts (give me a follow @GP_Landry) and I’ll jump into chat as well and talk about it. The point is, I know a lot of you build your lineups early in the day and don’t always pay much attention to the lineups being posted (unless one of your players isn’t playing and you need to find a substitute). Make sure you leave yourself enough time to review all the lineups once posted. Is the order different for some reason? Who is playing defense? Are they left or right-handed heavy? Who is catching? Your routine should be to leave yourself about an hour before lock to review all this information, as well as the weather, and make any final adjustments as needed. Sometimes you don’t need to change anything, and that’s completely fine, but sometimes you’ll see something that stands out and you’ll either want to jump on board or avoid the situation entirely.

Back to tonight, the biggest threat of rain is currently in Cincinnati but it’s not looking like enough to impact the game at this stage. We’ve got some hot weather in Washington (84), Philadelphia (82), Cinncinatti (86), Texas (95), and Colorado (89 – yes, it’s a Coors slate). The only place with any winds that we might need to factor in is Minnesota where we are looking at 10+ mph blowing directly in from center field. We can give a boost to the pitchers if that holds up. For the Rays, Wilmer Font is going to be their “opener” today but I haven’t found anything at this point about who is going to follow. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 5.1 innings on Wednesday so he shouldn’t be available today, Austin Pruitt pitched 7 innings last night so he’s out, and Anthony Banda is now on the disabled list. Those three are the usual “follow” guys in this strategy they’ve implemented. The only other potential option I see is Matt Andriese but I’ll be sure to post something if I hear more today. Sorry for the long introduction. We’ve got a lot to talk about so let’s get to work!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

It’s time for another exciting episode of……who the hell am I going to roster at pitcher tonight? The top tier is loaded with talent today (as well as the other tiers). As I’ve done several times in this article before, when I have this many options I like to take the names and the prices out of the equation initially and just focus on the actual numbers. It helps me to see if I can narrow down my pool and if there might be some inefficient pricing in the market that we could exploit. I’ve got six arms here that are worthy of a side-by-side comparison, so let’s take a look:

Pitcher #1 is running away with this already. Best SIERA on the board at 2.70, best strikeout rate on the board at 34%, and nearly the best swinging strike rate at 15.4%. Pitcher #6 is right behind him with similar numbers (2.74 SIERA, 33.9% strikeout rate, and 15.6% swinging strike rate). Not enough to eliminate him but pitcher #2’s ERA is a bit concerning though the SIERA is very solid. Pitcher #5 has a higher walk rate than I’d like to see from an elite arm, so we’ll keep an eye on those. Let’s check out the batted ball profiles:

I’m still very comfortable with pitcher #1. His WHIP is under 1 and his hard contact rate is at just 26.2%, which are both outstanding. Pitcher #3 also has an incredible WHIP at 0.72. He allows a very high 55.3% fly ball rate, but only 24.9% hard contact and 4.5% HR/FB, so the balls are staying in the yard despite being hit in the air. The red flag here is the very low .209 BABIP. Pitcher #6 is solid across the board. Good, not great groundball rate, excellent WHIP, best hard contact allowed in the group at 24%, and a .311 BABIP, so he’s actually been a bit unlucky despite these numbers. Pitcher #5 has very concerning hard contact at nearly 40%. At this point, #1 is the top of my list, with #6 behind him, followed by #3, #2, #4, and #5. With me so far? Let’s look at the opponents:

Crap, #6 has a tough matchup. That’s going to knock him down a couple spots. #1 just keeps getting better, he has the highest strikeout rate on the board and so does his opponent. I’m really intrigued by #2. That initial ERA was more than I’d want for an arm in this tier, but the batted ball profile and now the opponent is getting my attention. Their opponent has a .145 ISO, .301 wOBA, 87 wRC+ and only a team 31.9% hard-hit rate. Outside of pitcher #6, none of these opponents appear to be anything to shy away from. #5 is facing a team that doesn’t strikeout often so that limits the ceiling a bit. I think I’m about ready to eliminate him.

Sold! #1, who I already loved, is the largest favorite on the board and only the third most expensive on DraftKings (second on FanDuel). He’s my top arm today. I’m okay with eliminating #5, I was already on the fence about them, they are one of the lower favorites and the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. I’m also fine with eliminating #6. His advanced and batted ball profiles are fantastic, but it’s a bad matchup and he’s the underdog. Just don’t need to go there today. The remaining three are similar favorites. #3 is the most expensive, pitching in a hitter’s park in 95-degree weather. No thanks. That leaves #2 and #3. #3 is the larger favorite with the lower total and in a neutral ballpark. #2 is still a comfortable favorite, in a hitters park with a high total (but that could be due to their team) and is also the cheapest (by a lot on FanDuel). I’m going with #2!

Our top arm of the day, pitcher #1, is Chris Sale. He’s a huge favorite, has the highest strikeout rate and facing the team with the highest strikeout rate, and he’s priced well today. Pitcher #2, surprisingly, is J.A. Happ. I would never have picked him by name out of this group but he really stacks up well. The ERA initially was concerning but he really holds his own with the SIERA and strikeout upside. He has the best groundball rate of the group and his opponent has the weakest ISO, wOBA, and hard-hit rate of the group. I’d still say he’s a GPP only option as he’ll face a bunch of right-handed bats today, but I also think he could carry the lowest ownership of all these guys, which makes him really appealing. Pitcher #3 was Justin Verlander, #4 was Stephen Strasburg, #5 was Trevor Bauer, and #6 was Jacob deGrom. All of these guys are in play today, especially in tournaments. When you break down the numbers, however, Sale and Happ are really priced well given their upside and stand out above the rest.

Value Pitchers

Garrett Richards, LAA (@MIN) ($DK: 7.7K, FD: $8.1K)

As far as value arms go, since we just went through a bunch of expensive options and this is also a Coors slate, I’m going to go through the two cheapest arms that I like. The first guy is Garrett Richards who will be taking on the Minnesota Twins today with some wind helping him out from center-field. Richards has a solid 3.85 SIERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 11.7% swinging strikes. He has one of the better groundball rates on the day at 52.5% and he gets a nice matchup with the Twins who strikeout 21.8% of the time to right-handed pitching, with an average .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. The red flags here are Richards' high walk rate at 11.3% and the Twins have some power with a .168 ISO and 39.2% hard-hit rate. What stood out to me about Richards are his splits. Minnesota can roll out quite a few left-handed bats, which initially made me nervous, but Richards is excellent against lefties this season. He has a 3.44 xFIP with massive 28.9% strikeouts rate and 58.2% groundballs. He does allow above average contact and a high HR/FB ratio so giving up a long ball isn’t out of the question, but he’s still holding left-handed opponents to a .266 wOBA. Against right-handed bats, he owns a 3.73 xFIP with a 24.6% strikeout rate. He forces less but still solid 46.8% groundballs while allowing just a .301 wOBA. Again, hard contact is a bit concerning here at 41.8%. He’s a -125 favorite and I mentioned the wind is expected to be blowing in which should help him out. Minnesota bats are currently hitting just .200 against him in 46 at-bats, which is a solid sample size. I think he makes for a really nice tournament arm today if you want to pay up for offense instead and he’s firmly on my SP2 radar for cash games on DraftKings.

Marco Gonzales, SEA (@TB) (DK: $7.1K, FD: $8.3K)

Gonzales is the most inexpensive arm on the slate today that I can see myself rostering. He’s made some pretty drastic improvements over his uninspiring numbers last season (4.48 SIERA, 17.3% strikeout rate). Currently, he has a 3.76 SIERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate while allowing 46.7% groundballs and only 6.2% walks. BABIP against him is very high at .339 so the progress he’s making should only get better as he sees some positive regression come his way. As far as the matchup is concerned, he’ll be facing a very-right-handed heavy Rays team today. They have a 24% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and a .152 ISO, .319 wOBA, and 103 wRC+. Pretty average, not terrible, but nothing to shy away from either. What I love about Gonzales today, is he has reverse splits, and he’ll be facing a team that plays right into his strengths as they typically are very right-handed heavy. Going left-handed heavy for Tampa Bay means forcing in some pretty weak bats. They did call up Jake Bauers so he’s someone worth keeping an eye on, but they also sent Brad Miller down so that’s one less left-handed bat with some power to worry about. If we look at the splits focusing mostly on Gonzales against right-handers since he should see a bunch today, he's solid, with a 3.25 xFIP and a 23.7% strikeout rate. He still keeps the ball on the ground 45.5% of the time while allowing an average .320 wOBA. A couple of other things to point out against righties are his very high .358 BABIP, which is great news, and also his super low 9.5% HR/FB and 0.62 HR/9. He doesn’t give up the long ball often and that will only be exaggerated pitching at Tropicana Field today. Against left-handed batters, Gonzales sample size this season is really small, so I ended up pulling career numbers instead. The strikeout rate drops way down to just 15.7% but he still has an excellent 50.6% groundball rate and only allows 20.5% hard contact. This is a great spot for Gonzales, he’s pitching really well this season, has scored 25.25 FPPG on DraftKings over his last three starts (45.33 FPPG on FanDuel), and Tampa Bay is batting just .240 against him in 21 at-bats. He’s a -131 favorite and provides some salary relief. If you want to go cheap at pitcher or pair him with a top arm to hopefully squeeze in some bats, he provides you with a lot of options today.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. German Marquez): This will be Marquez's seventh start at home this season. I like to dive into the home/away splits, especially at Coors, once the sample sizes start to get large enough. We should feel very good about stacking Arizona today. Marquez has a 7.22 ERA and a 4.80 xFIP while allowing a .402 wOBA, 1.92 WHIP, and a 35.8% hard contact rate pitching in Coors Field this season. Yikes. Arizona’s numbers against right-handed pitching are less than exciting but it doesn’t matter against Marquez, at Coors Field, in 89-degree weather. I think the total, currently 10.5, is too low here. I know Greinke is on the other side of this game but 89 degrees in Coors? If you blow on the ball it’s going to leave the yard today. Goldschmidt, Lamb, and Peralta are the priorities. Small sample but Chris Owings has a .357 wOBA and .375 ISO in ten plate appearances against Marquez in his career. You could consider him to make a four-man stack. Even better, the Rockies bullpen is pretty average. Their numbers are inflated because of how often they pitch in this park. They have a 5.03 ERA but only a 3.78 SIERA with 23.4% strikeouts but they don’t do themselves any favors with a 10% walk rate.

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Zack Greinke): Greinke actually pitched pretty decent at Coors Field last season going 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 14.1 innings of work. He allowed 15 hits, 6 earned runs and only 2 home runs in those games. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to stack against him here but it does mean it wouldn’t totally surprise me if he didn’t get shelled. Something that’s standing out to me about him is his 45.1% hard contact rate allowed this season (43% to lefties and 46.6% to righties). That is not going to serve him well in this ballpark and this heat today. You can stack up these guys however you want but, as usual, Blackmon, Arenado, Gonzalez, and Story are the priority. All these guys have at least 23 at-bats against Greinke. Story has a .464 ISO in 29 at-bats, Gonzalez has a .273 ISO in 23 at-bats, and Blackmon has a .194 ISO in 31 at-bats. Arenado has an average, but still solid, .179 ISO in 30 at-bats. Arizona currently has one of the better bullpens in baseball but they only have a .255 BABIP and allow 38.3% hard contact so some regression could get them hard today in this park.

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Matt Harvey): Looking for a pivot off Coors? Look no further. The Cardinals let us down in their series with the Marlins but this is a great bounce-back spot against Matt Harvey in Great American Ballpark which is about the size of my bedroom. Harvey is better, but not good against right-handed batters, which he’ll see a lot of today. He has a respectable 3.55 xFIP and 47.5% groundball rate but below average strikeouts at 18.9% and he allows 36.1% hard contact. I took a look at last year’s splits against righties also to get a better sample size and it gets worse with a 4.71 xFIP and 17.2% strikeout rate. Against lefties, such as Matt Carpenter, who is one of my favorite players on the board today, he has a 5.10 xFIP with only 15.5% strikeouts while allowing 42.2% hard contact. Dexter Fowler could be sneaky in this spot as he’ll bat from the left-side as has a .191 ISO against right-handed pitching. Harvey will be backed up by a Reds bullpen that has a 4.02 SIERA, 10.7% walk rate, and allows 37.6% hard contact. Reminder, it will be in the upper 80's in this park today.

• Washington Nationals (vs. Andrew Suarez): Suarez gives up an insane amount of hard contact to right-handed batters at 45.7%. He’s also allowing a .383 wOBA, 2.15 HR/9 and has a 1.47 WHIP. He’s better against lefties but think about the left-handed bats the Nationals have. A right-handed stack from Washington that includes Turner, Rendon, Reynolds and even Taylor and Difo is firmly in play today and you can mix in Harper and Soto to differentiate your stacks. People might shy away from those guys because of the lefty on lefty matchup but you can't exclude Harper if you’re rolling out Nationals stacks. The Giants bullpen is middle of the pack with 22.4% strikeouts but allowing 37.2% hard contact. Remember this is a negative park shift for Giants pitching on the road.

• Houston Astros (vs. Doug Fister): Fister is struggling pretty equally to both sides of the plate this season but I’m mostly interested in his splits against righties today against the Astros. So far this season, he has just 14.5% strikeouts, a 1.48 WHIP, while allowing a .362 wOBA against right-handed bats. He’ll see plenty of them today. I love Houston because they provide some power at a very weak catcher position. I chose Stassi over Gattis last night, which was the wrong move, but both of these guys are on the radar once again today. It’s been hot and humid all week in Texas and today is looking to be the hottest game so far with a forecasted temperature at first pitch of 95 degrees.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Tampa Bay Rays): I’ve yet to figure out who will follow the "opener" for the Rays but, honestly, whoever it is won’t be someone I’m scared to roster bats against. What I really want is a shot at Wilmer Font who is borderline pathetic and I can’t believe he still has a job (think Chris Tillman but worse). Even if the Seattle bats only get one shot at him it will be worth it, followed by whatever comes out of the bullpen which isn’t very good either. Font’s numbers this season: 9.78 ERA (4.39 SIERA), 16.4% strikeouts, 1.83 WHIP, 44.6% hard contact allowed. It’s a bad park but it won’t matter with this guy on the hill. I think they are sneaky today with the uncertainty of who is pitching for Tampa Bay and their new strategy.

The Bullpen

• Don’t sleep on the Reds bats today. The Cardinals will get more attention with their implied run total against Matt Harvey but Luke Weaver is an average pitcher at best and he still has to deal with that ballpark in the hot weather. If the Reds can knock him around early they’d get a Cardinals bullpen with a 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 37.4% hard contact allowed.

• I didn’t mention the Blue Jays in the stack section because there are so many good options today but I’ll mention them here. They currently have a top five implied run total on the board against Andrew Cashner. Cashner will be supported by a poor Orioles bullpen who has a 4.17 SIERA, 10.4% walks, and 1.44 WHIP.

• You’ll be tempted by the Phillies bats today at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park in 80+ degree weather. They are facing Jhoulys Chacin and his 4.95 SIERA, 17.2% strikeout rate, and 40.2% hard contact rate allowed. There are better spots for bats though, because if the Phillies get past Chacin early, they’ll take on a Milwaukee bullpen that carries a 2.61 ERA (3.10 SIERA), 28.7% strikeout rate and 13% swinging strikes. They are arguably the top bullpen in baseball right now.

• I always check out the Marlins situation cause they are a team nobody ever thinks to stack but, as we talked about this week, they keep blowing up when nobody wants them to. Today, however, isn’t the spot. Eric Lauer is a good matchup for them but once they get him out of the game the San Diego bullpen is solid with a 3.43 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. Plus, this is a bad park for offense. Plenty of other places that are much better and will still be low owned. Don’t try to get too cute today.

Very, very, very interesting and fun slate today. It’s about time after a brutal week of comparing bad and worse options. I’m not 100% sure yet what I’m going to do today. I need to do some more homework and give it some more thought. I have a lot of interest in Coors especially given the 89-degree weather. I could see myself going more mid-tier with pitching as there are some guys with solid upside that would still allow me to fit in the bats I want (Vince Velasquez, Caleb Smith, and Garrett Richards come to mind). It’s going to be hard to lay off Chris Sale today and I think there are enough good spots for offense that you could pay up at pitching, fade the Coors bats and still be in good shape. What I like about today is there are enough pitching options that even if the Coors bats get a bit chalky, I think you can still differentiate with pitching to help separate yourself. I also really like J.A. Happ on FanDuel for tournaments as he has similar upside to the big arms but he’s only $9.4K over there. You may be able to get him paired with some Coors exposure on that site. Make sure to jump in the freeroll today, it should be a good one! I hope you crush it in your contests tonight and this weekend. I’ll see you back here on Monday!

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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