Halfway through the week and we have a ten-game main slate to talk about. Pitching is a little funny today. There are guys I like but don’t love, for reasons I’ll explain, but options are pretty limited, so you won’t have that warm and fuzzy feeling like you get when you push the add button next to Scherzer’s name. We’ve got a few warm games to consider, with temperatures right around 80 degrees in Minnesota, close to 90 degrees in St. Louis, and well over 90 degrees in Texas again today. No concerns related to wind, including in Wrigley, it’s pretty neutral everywhere today. No threats of rain at this point but there’s always a chance of a pop-up storm, so I’d be sure to still check back before lock. Let’s take a look and see how this slate breaks down today.

If you missed yesterday’s article, I’m working on a new section called “The Bullpen” which, essentially, highlights the relevant data for any bullpen in play on the upcoming slate. I’ll then be pointing out how some of those numbers could impact our decision-making process when building rosters. I’m open to feedback as I build this part out so let me know your thoughts. For that matter, I’m always open to feedback on the article in general so don’t be afraid to hit me up on Twitter or the LineStarApp chat.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Shoehei Ohtani, LAA (vs. KC) (DK: $11K, FD: $8.6K)

I have yet to roster Ohtani but it looks like that’s going to change today. I know, I know, I’ve been preaching for the past couple of weeks about how I don’t like rostering pitchers against Kansas City. They have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball and they kill the ceiling of the pitcher that faces them. But Ohtani is making the case to join the ranks of the elite starters in this league. This season, he has a nearly identical 3.18 ERA and 3.28 SIERA with an incredible 31.3% strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging strike rate. The BABIP is a little low at .265 and the hard contact is a bit high at 34.6%, so at least some regression is likely on the horizon, but his upside is just too good to ignore. I already mentioned the bad news about the matchup. The Royals only strikeout 17.7% of the time to right-handed pitching. The good news is they also only have a .129 ISO, .304 wOBA, and 89 wRC+. As far as splits are concerned, he’s real strong against both sides of the plate. Versus lefties, he has a 3.62 xFIP and 26.8% strikeout rate. He’s forcing 46% groundballs, only allowing a .238 wOBA, and 30% hard contact. The two red flags here are 12.2% walks and a low .245 BABIP. Moustakas is always a threat but he’s got his work cut out for him today against these numbers. It gets even better against right-handed bats. He has a 2.96 xFIP, a massive 35% strikeout rate and only allows a .288 wOBA. The BABIP to righties is closer to the average at .283 so regression is less likely to bite us in the ass here. The only noteworthy number here is he’s allowing 38.6% hard contact. Soler and Merrifield, maybe, can take advantage of that hard contact, but honestly I’m not worried about it. I like him today but don’t love him but you can’t argue with his numbers, even if it’s not the best matchup. He’s also a huge -260 favorite at home which puts him squarely in consideration for both cash games and tournaments.

Lance McCullers Jr, HOU (vs. SEA) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $8.8K)

Similar to the Royals, the Mariners are proving to be another team that is difficult to target with pitching. Can you imagine if they still had Robinson Cano? It seems like they just started getting the bats rolling right around the time of his suspension. Regardless, Seattle is another team with a low strikeout rate that can hurt the ceiling of the opposing pitcher. McCullers is having another impressive season after a strong 2017 campaign. He has a 3.69 SIERA, slightly below his 3.89 ERA, with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging strike rate. He’s an excellent groundball pitcher, with 55% groundballs this season and 61% groundballs last season. Seattle is a bit worse of a matchup than what Ohtani is dealing with against the Royals but they are still beatable. They strikeout only 19.9% of the time to right-handed pitching with a .157 ISO, .315 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. All slightly higher numbers than Kansas City. Taking a look at the splits, McCullers is solid against either side of the plate. To lefties, he has a 3.52 xFIP with a 28.3% strikeout rate, and 51.4% groundball rate. He only allows a .269 wOBA but the hard contact is up a little this season at 32.2% compared to 26.2% last season. The BABIP is low at .221 (I feel like I’ve been saying that a lot lately) but I’m not worried about it as these numbers are very similar to what he had last season in a much larger sample size. Against right-handed bats, he has a 3.50 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate. Here, he’s forcing a whopping 60% groundballs and only allowing a .309 wOBA. Even better, the BABIP is actually high at .330 so these numbers should only get better as time goes on. Again, I like him, but I don’t love him. I wouldn’t talk you out of him if you wanted to roster him today, but the ceiling is a bit lower in this spot. Still, he’s at home and a very comfortable -190 favorite today.

Value Pitchers

Jack Flaherty, STL (vs. MIA) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $7.8K)

We’ve got a major price discrepancy between the two sites on Jack Flaherty today. On DraftKings, he’s the third most expensive pitcher on the main slate at $10.2K but on FanDuel he’s one of the cheapest options on the board at just $7.8K. He’s a no-brainer on FanDuel but, for me, the question is whether or not he’s worth his elevated salary on DraftKings. He gets a matchup with the Miami Marlins who, on paper, look like the ideal team to target but they are a scrappy group who can sometimes surprise you (like that game against Scherzer a couple of weeks ago). They put up seven runs yesterday, granted they got some help from Carlos Martinez who walked five batters and looked a bit rusty returning from the DL. In the five games prior to that, however, they never had more than three runs. I’m not telling you this to discourage you from rostering Flaherty but rather so you’re aware that the risk is a bit higher than you would think. On the plus side, Flaherty is having an excellent season with just a 2.62 ERA (3.46 SIERA), a 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate. He had an issue with walks last season at 10.6% but he’s brought that down to 6.7%. He gets a Miami team who can surprise you, as we already mentioned, but still has a 23.9% strikeout rate and only a .112 ISO, .281 wOBA, and 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Sorry, but scrappy or not, I’m taking my chances rostering pitchers against a team with those numbers. Looking at the splits, we are mainly concerned with right-handed bats today as the Marlins are very right-handed heavy and likely to roll out seven bats from that side of the plate. This is where Flaherty becomes so appealing today as this plays right into his strengths. He has a 2.94 xFIP (2.00 ERA) with a huge 33.3% strikeout rate and only 4.4% walks. He gives up some fly balls (46.3%) with a little hard contact (33.3%) but still only allows a .266 wOBA to righties. The BABIP is low at .256 so regression could always hurt him a bit but not enough to get me off of rostering him. Against lefties, which is basically Brinson and Bour, Flaherty is definitely worse. He has a 4.42 xFIP with 19.7% strikeouts and nearly 10% walks. He does still allow only a .291 wOBA, which is very encouraging, but also 38.3% hard contact. Back to the original question. Is Flaherty worth the money on DraftKings? Honestly, on most nights, I would tell you to find the extra $300 and grab McCullers, but because I expect the Marlins to be so right-handed heavy tonight, this really lines up as a dream matchup for Flaherty. Pay attention to Miami’s lineup tonight when it’s posted but, yes, I expect Flaherty will be worth his price tag on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s an absolute steal. He’s my favorite option so far but I am a bit concerned he could turn into chalk as the day goes on. I don’t care on FanDuel because of how cheap he is, but if he’s going to be real popular in tournaments on DraftKings, I’ll definitely pivot to one of the more expensive guys we already talked about.

Jon Gray, COL (@CIN) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.3K)

I love slates where my favorite arm comes from the value section. Nothing against Ohtani and McCullers, as they are both outstanding pitchers, but Gray has similar upside and a much better matchup. The problem, of course, is he’s really not pitching well this season. His 5.68 ERA is scary but remember, it’s inflated because of how often he pitchers at Coors Field. His 3.33 SIERA shows us that Gray may have more to offer us on this slate then what meets the eye. He’s got a 26.2% strikeout rate with 12.7% swinging strikes and only 6.6% walks. He’s got a high 47.9% groundball rate and the BABIP is crazy high at .376, so we should be on the right side of regression, at least for a while. Great American Ballpark isn’t the best place to use pitchers, but it’s not Coors Field and the Reds have a 21.2% strikeout rate to go along with a low .129 ISO, .304 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Against lefties, he still has that ugly ERA, but his xFIP is extremely solid at only 2.95. He’s got a 27.3% strikeout rate with 47.3% groundballs. The bad news is he’s allowing a .358 wOBA with a 37.9% hard contact rate. But, the BABIP is very high at .367 so I don’t expect the wOBA or the hard contact to stay that high for long. Against right-handed bats, he has a 3.20 xFIP with 25.2% strikeouts and 48.5% groundballs. The wOBA is improved here at .326 as well as the hard contact at 31.6%. Again, a massive BABIP here of .385. He’s pitching way better than what the surface numbers are describing. So, what does all this mean? We’ve got a pitcher, significantly less expensive than the two power pitchers on the slate, with similar strikeout upside (actually higher than McCullers) and a better matchup. But, he’s on the road, in a hitters park, and not nearly as big a favorite at -124. I’m going to roll the dice as I like what some of the more advanced stats are indicating even if most of the standard data is tough to swallow. He’s firmly in play for tournaments today and in consideration as my SP2 for cash on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Wei-Yen Chen): Chen gets his worst case scenario type of matchup today against a very right-handed heavy Cardinals team. Chen has awful numbers against right-handed bats this season including a 7.10 xFIP, 12% strikeout rate, and 14.8% walk rate. You read that correctly, his walk rate is 2.8% higher than his strikeout rate against righties. He also gives up 55.4% fly balls and a .389 wOBA. The Cardinals have a .181 ISO and 36.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. They also have the highest walk rate on the slate at 11.5%, which is going to be a nightmare for Chen. We should see the bullpen early here which just adds to the good news. Miami’s bullpen has a 5.79 ERA (4.24 SIERA), with a 1.59 WHIP and allows 38.9% hard contact. Fire up those Red Birds, they are my favorite stack on this slate.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Blaine Hardy): This is an interesting spot because Boston has actually struggled a lot this season with left-handed pitching. As a team, they strike out 24.6% of the time with only a .136 ISO, .296 wOBA, and 81 wRC+. Yet, they have the highest implied team total on the board today at 5.47. Hardy is not an intimidating matchup (although he's not as bad as you think). He has a 2.77 ERA but a 4.62 SIERA and allows 48.6% fly balls and 35.5% hard contact. Despite their struggles against lefties, we know the Red Sox offense is capable of having huge games on any given night. Plus, if they can find a way to get Hardy out of the game early, they’d get another night against the very weak Tigers bullpen that they beat up on yesterday. Detroit’s bullpen has a 4.29 ERA (4.06 SIERA) with a 1.40 WHIP and allows 35.6% hard contact. This is probably a situation for me where, if Boston is going to be chalk today, I’ll pivot elsewhere and hope the struggles with left-handed pitching hold up. But if others are scared off of them, then I’ll load up and side with Vegas that this offense is simply too good regardless of the splits.

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Ian Kennedy): This one comes down to what the final lineup looks like. There are a lot of question marks on the Angels' side. Albert Pujols missed last night’s game with a sore left knee, Andrelton Simmons left yesterday’s game early with a leg injury, Kole Calhoun was placed on the disabled list recently, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching tonight and, therefore, not part of the lineup. That’s a lot of missing pieces. If Pujols and Simmons wind up playing today, I could have some interest. Kennedy is getting beaten up this season with a 6.08 ERA (4.40 SIERA) while allowing 40.6% fly balls and 41.2% hard contact. Kennedy has only lasted six innings in three of his last ten starts which means the odds are in our favor of getting a long look at the terrible Royals bullpen who have a 5.65 ERA and only 17.7% strikeout rate this season.

• Texas Rangers (vs. Daniel Mengden): Mengden has a 2.91 ERA but a significantly worse 4.24 SIERA to go with a very low 16.2% strikeout rate. He’ll see several power lefties today that should give him all kinds of trouble as his strikeout rate drops to 13%, but he’s allowing 42.7% fly balls and 39.7% hard contact. The Rangers have multiple left-handed power bats that can do some serious damage in this 94-degree weather in Texas today. I wouldn’t be afraid to include Adrian Beltre as part of a full stack either. He hit a long ball last night. The Athletics bullpen started off sluggish this season but they are steadily improving with a 3.87 SIERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, and allowing 37.3% hard contact. Still, I'm not going to shy away from this spot.

• Oakland Athletics (vs Bartolo Colon): I feel obligated to mention both sides of this game given the hot weather and the high O/U which is currently at 10, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it got higher as the day goes on. Bartolo Colon is….well…not very good at pitching anymore. He’s got a 4.21 ERA with only a 16.5% strikeout rate and allows 42.9% hard contact. These low strikeout, high hard contact pitchers in very hot weather are just a recipe for disaster. I love Matt Olsen in this spot and I would build any stacks around him. The Texas bullpen isn’t bad, middle of the pack, with a 3.77 ERA (3.80 SIERA), 21% strikeout rate and allowing a 37.7% hard contact rate. Certainly not something I’d shy away from using batters against, especially in this ballpark and in this heat.

• Chicago White Sox (vs. Jake Odorizzi): I’m a little surprised at the White Sox implied total today of only 3.97. They are typically a better team against left-handed pitching but they face off against Jake Odorizzi today who has reverse splits. Chicago was in a similar matchup just last week against Chase Anderson (who also has reverse splits) and they put up eight runs. Odorizzi has an average strikeout rate, allows high fly balls and high hard contact. He’s especially weak against righties with his 55.3% fly ball rate, .339 wOBA, and 34.7% hard contact allowed. The White Sox right-handed bats are the priority including Abreu, Anderson, and even Thompson, assuming he cracks the lineup. If the White Sox can chase Odorizzi early, the Twins bullpen is not something to be concerned with. They have a 4.29 ERA and allow 39.1% hard contact.

The Bullpen

• As discussed in the stack section, I’m assuming we get a lot of chances against the Miami bullpen today, which is really good news for any Cardinals batters you have. They have an average strikeout rate, above average walk rate, and a miserable 1.59 WHIP.

• I had briefly considered the Phillies as a low owned stack against Jose Quintana today. Quintana is a very inconsistent pitcher and is coming off a very strong performance (in a very easy matchup) against a Mets lineup that is really struggling with left-handed pitching. But, the Cubs bullpen is one of the best in the business with a solid 3.84 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate while forcing 48.2% groundballs and only allowing 28.8% hard contact. I’ll pass on the Phillies bats.

• The Tigers bats are in an interesting spot against another inconsistent pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez. They jumped out at me when I first started breaking down the slate as they are an extremely right-handed heavy lineup taking on a left-handed pitcher. But, Candelario was pulled from the game last night and if he’s out, that’s one less big bat to worry about. The Red Sox bullpen is excellent with a 3.40 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate while only allowing a 28.6% hard contact rate. Plus, they are well rested after Stephen Wright threw a gem last night.

• Houston against Wade LeBlanc was another team that made my original list before getting crossed off. LeBlanc, despite starting the season as a bullpen arm, is pitching better than expected. He has a low 1.11 WHIP, only 8.2% HR/FB rate, and only allows 26.8% hard contact. This game is in Houston, which is the best pitcher’s park in baseball. If the Astros did manage to get past LeBlanc they’d still have to deal with the Seattle bullpen and their very impressive 3.12 SIERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 13.7% swinging strike rate. There are better spots tonight.

Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

Catch us on LineStar MLB Chat and don't forget to enter the freeroll today!