I’m introducing a new section to the Daily Ledger today simply called “The Bullpen”. You can find it at the bottom of the article under the stacks section.  This is still a work in progress, but the plan is to show a daily chart of all the bullpens that are in play on the slate and any relevant data that could help us in our decision making. I’ll highlight anything that stands out to me with some bullet points below the chart as well. I’m also going to do a better job incorporating bullpen information into my daily stack and home run calls. In the past, I’ve never put very much weight behind bullpen data when playing MLB DFS but, at this point in the season, the average starter is throwing just 91 pitches per game. That’s down five pitches from the previous season. We are seeing bullpen arms earlier and more often in games these days. In fact, most of the hitters that we roster are likely to see a bullpen arm for the same number of bats as they do the starter in that game. This means, in many cases, we should be equally focusing on bullpen stats as we do on starting pitcher stats. If we are going to get better at MLB DFS then we need to embrace this trend and use it as a competitive advantage over the rest of the field. I’m going to do a better job including this information in the articles on a daily basis. I’m open to feedback so let me know what you think and anything else you’d want to see included. With that said, we have a huge 14-game slate tonight with a ton of high-priced pitching options to choose from so let's get right to it!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. TB) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $12K)

Third times a charm, right? I’ve been wrong on Scherzer in each of his last two starts. The first one was against the Marlins where he was essentially singled and doubled to death on route to giving up seven hits and four earned runs in just six innings of work, with only four strikeouts. The next start, I liked him and recommended him but I also said that Paxton was the better option between the two. Paxton went on to get roughed up somehow against a strikeout happy, left-handed heavy Rangers team and, meanwhile, Scherzer mowed down 12 Orioles in eight innings while only allowing two hits. I’m very confident this time around, however, with Scherzer going up against the Tampa Bay Rays. This is a dream spot, even for a guy like this who doesn’t need any extra help. The Rays are very right-handed heavy and will roll-out at least six right-handed bats against him. They will do their best to throw a few left-hand bats in there but none of them will be any kind of real power threat. Plus, this game is in Washington so the Rays will lose the DH.  Scherzer is flat out ridiculous against right-handed batters with a 1.95 xFIP and 44.1% strikeout rate. His WHIP is elite at 0.66 and he only allows a .190 wOBA and 29.1% hard contact rate. Against the few lefties he could see, he’ll bring a worse 4.16 xFIP but with a still very strong 28.6% strikeout rate and only a 1.10 WHIP.  His downfall, as always, is the 50.6% fly ball rate to left-handed batters but outside of maybe Brad Miller, there is really nobody in this lineup that can exploit that. Plus, even with the fly balls, Scherzer still only allows a .290 wOBA and 27.4% hard contact. His BABIP is low to both sides of the plate which means he’s due for a bit of regression. We saw a little of that in his start against Miami but then he was lights out against Baltimore. I think you’ll continue to see the regression occur in spurts here and there but it’s certainly not going to make me second guess my decision to roster him, especially against Tampa Bay. The Rays strikeout 21.6% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .132 ISO, .317 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. I just don’t see a scenario where they can get anything done against him. Scherzer is your top arm of the day, particularly in cash games, and he has the most upside of any pitcher on this slate which makes him equally appealing in tournaments.  

Corey Kluber, CLE (vs. MIL) (DK: $12.6, FD: $11.5)

If you’re brave enough to fade Scherzer, let me introduce you to Corey Kluber, who is currently on a streak of 112 batters faced without issuing a walk and has a 0.68 ERA in his last four starts. If there is anyone on this slate who can keep pace with Scherzer in terms of strikeout upside, he is that person. We’ll address the elephant in the room first. Yes, Kluber did face the Brewers already this season back on May 8th. Yes, it wasn’t his best performance allowing five hits, three earned runs (two home runs) and only four strikeouts in six innings of work. I refuse to allow myself to be results-oriented based on a one-game sample when I have a season and a half worth of data that tells me that game was an outlier and Kluber is elite. He has a 2.73 SIERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate and a 14.3% swinging strike rate while only allowing 4.2% walks. He’ll see a few left-handed batters today with Travis Shaw being the most noteworthy. Kluber has a 2.72 xFIP, 31% strikeout rate and only allows a .248 wOBA to lefties. To right-handed batters, he has a 2.45 xFIP with a 33.3% strikeout rate while only allowed a .233 wOBA. The WHIP is less than one and the walk rate is less than five percent to both sides of the plate. Just like Scherzer, the only downside here is a low BABIP but the potential reward of a guy like Kluber far outweighs the risk of some potential regression coming his way. Milwaukee strikes out 24.3% of the time to right-handed pitching which only further adds to his upside. They have above average power with a .167 team ISO but this is a big negative park shift for them going from hitter-friendly Miller Park to pitcher-friendly Progressive Field. We’re also looking at cooler temperatures in the 60's today with the wind blowing directly in from center field around 10-11 mph. Kluber is a very heavy -210 favorite today in ideal pitching conditions. If you’re playing cash games he doesn’t bring the same level of “safety” that Scherzer does but he makes for an excellent pivot option in tournaments today.  

Value Pitchers

Sean Newcomb, ATL (@SD) (DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.9K)

Pitchers against San Diego. If you rostered Tehran last night you’re probably thinking, "no thanks." Don’t let one game cloud your judgment. For starters, Teheran is not Newcomb. Secondly, outside of their .178 ISO, the Padres are not a scary lineup against left-handed pitching with a .302 wOBA, 93 wRC+ and a very appealing 25.7% strikeout rate. Newcomb is also a reverse splits pitcher and should see at least six, maybe seven right-handed bats today. Against righties, he has a 24.1% strikeout rate with 46.7% groundballs while only allowing a .305 wOBA and 26.2% hard contact rate. Against lefties, he still has a solid 23.7% strikeout rate with 45.3% groundballs while only allowing a .324 wOBA and 29.6% hard contact. He has excellent strikeout upside which is even better against this team and he does a great job of limiting hard contact to both sides of the plate. The only red flag I’m seeing for Newcomb today is his high walk rate, but San Diego helps him out with that as they only walk 7.5% of the time.  He's not as cheap as I'd like for someone I'm recommending as a value pitcher but I've combed through the mid and low-tier options today on multiple levels and I keep coming up with the same conclusion. There is maybe one person under $9K on DraftKings today (who we will talk about next) that I have any interest in rostering. This game has a low 7.5 total and is in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He’s a -128 favorite and one of my favorite options on the board today.  

Kyle Hendricks, CHC (vs. PHI) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8K)

Hendricks is really about as cheap as I’m willing to go today. There is just very little value available to us at the pitcher position on this slate. He has solid, if unspectacular, numbers with a 4.04 SIERA and 20.8% strikeout rate. His average strikeout numbers should get a little help today as he’ll face Philadelphia and their very high 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Their offensive numbers are not very inspiring. They have a little power with a .163 team ISO but just a .307 wOBA and 92 wRC+ against righties. Something I love pointing out about the Phillies as well is their low team hard-hit rate that currently sits at just 29.1% (the lowest in the league) against right-handed pitching. He’s a little vulnerable to left-handed batting with a 4.17 xFIP, 9.3% walk rate, and 33.6% hard contact rate. But, he still has a 22.9% strikeout rate and only allows a .308 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a 3.45 xFIP, only 4% walks, and 54% groundballs while allowing just a .277 wOBA and 29.3% hard contact. The downside here is his strikeout rate goes down to 18.9% but remember he's facing the strikeout-heavy Phillies lineup. Hendricks is boring, I’m not going to lie to you. He’s not the type of pitcher that will break a slate with a crazy ceiling game. He goes out there, eats up innings, and does his job. He’s a much better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. But, on a day like today, where the value is virtually non-existent, I think you can consider him as your SP2, especially in cash games, as he’ll provide a really nice floor and open up enough salary for you to fit in the bats you need and still get Scherzer or Kluber. I forgot to mention this, but as of now, the wind is expected to be blowing in at 13 mph at Wrigley Field. Keep an eye on this cause Wrigley winds can always change but the wind and the very cool 58-degree temperatures tonight only add to his appeal. If you need any further convincing he’s a big -220 favorite. I'm not going to overthink this one today. There is nothing else I like below his price point.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Brad Keller and the Royals Bullpen): We get a bullpen game against one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Brad Keller will start the game but he’s not fully stretched out and isn’t expected to go past 70 pitches. This means we’ll get an early look at the Royals bullpen who have a 5.51 ERA (4.23 SIERA) with only 17.7% strikeouts, and a 1.50 WHIP. They allow a 15.7% HR/FB rate and a league-worst 39.8% hard contact rate. A low strikeout bullpen that gives up a lot of hard contact facing a team that has below average strikeouts and a lot of players with above average hard-hits. Stack them up. Impossible to prioritize which side of the plate to focus on since we will see a lot of different arms today but it honestly shouldn’t matter.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Artie Lewicki and the Tigers Bullpen): As I mentioned in the home run section, Lewicki will be making his second career major league start today. His career numbers, which date back to 2014 at all levels of the minors, are less than impressive. He has a 4.62 ERA and an even worse 4.77 SIERA with just a 15.3% strikeout rate and a 1.82 WHIP. He’s got an average GB/FB ratio and allows above average hard contact at 37.4%. He’s a bullpen arm who is not stretched out, making a spot start. He won’t last very long. Then the Red Sox will get to face the Tigers bullpen who are currently contending with the Royals for one of the worst in the league. They have a 4.46 ERA (4.09 SIERA) with an average 20.9% strikeout rate and allow 35.6% hard contact. Boston has the highest implied total on the slate today with good reason. You don’t need me to tell you how powerful this offense is. Stack these guys up however you want.

• New York Yankees (vs. Marco Estrada): This is a very bad spot for Estrada who really struggles with right-handed batters and especially right-handed power. The Yankees, as we know, have a ton of that. Estrada allows 52.7% fly balls, a .371 wOBA and 31.5% hard contact to right-handed batters. Judge, Stanton, Andujar, Sanchez, and Torres incredibly all have a .241 ISO or better against right-handed pitching. Five players, possibly consecutively in the order, with a .241 ISO or better. That’s insanity. It will be tempting to include left-handed batters, especially as part of a full-stack. I wouldn’t talk you out of it but just be careful as Estrada still has a high fly ball rate to lefties but he does a remarkable job limiting hard contact at only 25%. Lefties can still do damage but it’s just less likely to happen.  I'm all over the right-handed bats in this spot.  

• Texas Rangers (vs. Sean Manaea): I’ll like this more if Manaea gets some ownership, which is possible since the mid-tier for pitching today isn’t very appealing. I legitimately think that he’s broken but people still seem to want to roster him because he had some success early on this season. Since his no-hitter against Boston, here are his FPPG results by start (DraftKings scoring): 31, 11, 6, 14, 2, -6, and 4. He has a 4.38 SIERA with only 19.7% strikeouts which helps a team like the Rangers who tend to strike out quite a bit. They have a very high .180 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and it’s going to be over 90 degrees in Texas today. The ball will be flying out of that park.

• Oakland Athletics (vs. Matt Moore): On the other side of the Rangers, we have Oakland who gets to face Matt Moore today. I honestly think the total in this game, currently set at 10 runs, is too low. I’ve already mentioned the heat in Texas today and this is a hitter-friendly park. Remember, don’t worry about the wind forecasted to be blowing in. There is a jet stream that constantly blows through that park so they designed it specifically to block out the wind. There are massive windscreens and a huge four-story office park that completely take the wind out of the equation. All we need to worry about is the heat and it will absolutely boost the bats in this spot. Moore has a 6.09 ERA (4.90 SIERA) with only 18.2% strikeouts. He has an awful 1.63 WHIP which is one of my favorite stats to look at when choosing stacks. The Oakland offense has completely turned around since Khris Davis returned and all Athletics stacks today will start with him.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): The Rockies are coming out of a series at home which is typically a good time to target pitchers against them because of the massive negative park shift they typically endure. I’m going to go against that theory today, however, as they actually find themselves in a nice spot at Great American Ballpark which, outside of Coors Field, is one of the best parks in baseball for home runs. It’s particularly friendly to left-handed power, which the Rockies have quite a bit of. DeSclafani hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016 and for the most part in his career, he’s been an average pitcher with a 19.6% strikeout rate, 9.4% swinging strike rate, 43% groundballs, 35% fly balls, and 31.2% hard contact. Pretty unexciting overall. Colorado has five bats with over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching (Blackmon, Gonzalez, Parra, Story, and Arenado). The weather is also going to help out the bats today as we are looking at 81-degree temperatures with the winds blowing out at close to double-digit speeds. I rarely like to target Colorado on the road but I think they have extremely sneaky appeal tonight on this massive slate if you’re playing in a large field GPP.  

The Bullpen

• The Tigers had a doubleheader yesterday in which the bullpen was heavily used in the first game and today they will be heavily used again with Lewicki not stretched out (and likely to get shelled anyway). They are a bottom ten bullpen with a 4.09 SIERA, 20.9% strikeout rate, 1.43 WHIP, and 35.6% hard contact allowed.• The Royals will also have a bullpen game today as Brad Keller is only expected to reach about 70 pitches. They have a miserable 5.51 ERA (4.33 SIERA) with only a 17.7% strikeout rate while allowing nearly 40% hard contact.• We’ll likely see the bullpen fairly early for the Cardinals as we don’t know exactly what Carlos Martinez will be able to throw for pitches today. In his rehab start on Thursday, he threw 62, so I'd be surprised if he goes much over 80 in this game. Their bullpen is not great with a 4.03 SIERA, nearly 10% walks, a 1.42 WHIP and 36.6% hard contact allowed. You could go here if you wanted to but the Marlins aren’t very appealing, especially if their first two at-bats are going to be against Martinez.• We may also see the Giants pen a bit earlier than usual with Bumgarner on a soft count of about 90 pitches today. They are middle of the road with a solid 3.80 SIERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, and 11.2% swinging strike rate. I won’t be using Bumgarner today but I don’t see myself going after any Diamondbacks bats either. 

This should be a great slate.  We are going to have to go hunting for value bats because you'll definitely be paying up for pitching. Most of my exposure will be to the four pitchers I mentioned above and I'll try mixing them up to see what I can do with the bats. Scherzer's price on DraftKings concerns me a bit if I don't have a clear-cut value SP2. I'm curious how difficult it will be to fit in bats that I'm comfortable with. Hopefully we'll get some value when the lineups start posting. I wouldn't put a ton of weight on ownership today or you'll find yourself forcing in bad pitchers when you don't need to. There are plenty of spots for offense on this slate where you can differentiate yourself in tournaments. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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