What a letdown today is. I rarely play MLB DFS on the weekends. The baseball season is such a grind with so many games, statistics, and other factors that need to be incorporated into your decision making every day. I like using the weekends as a mental break. A chance to regroup, reflect on my results from the previous week, watch the games as a fan, and pay attention to anything that might help me get ready for the upcoming week. By Sunday night, when I start my research for this article, I’m pretty excited to get back to it. I cracked a beer, tossed on the Sunday Night Baseball game (which happened to be the Red Sox as an added bonus) and got to work. Then, I pulled up the probable starters and saw that we only have four games today. Not only that, but four games with back of the rotation pitchers available to us. Honestly, this is a good slate to probably sit out, especially if you play cash games. There’s a ton of volatility and a lot of risk. It does present an interesting tournament slate though. Despite all these pitchers being back of the rotation guys, we do have a few that are intriguing despite being risky. If you’re the type of person who doesn’t like to take any slates off, and you want to take a few shots in tournaments tonight, I don’t blame you. I’ll probably wind up doing the same myself since I’m already putting in the research time for the article today anyway. Let’s dive in and see what we can figure out for tonight.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Zack Godley, ARI (@SFG) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $8.5K)

Your most expensive arm of the night is Godley who is a +115 against DEREK HOLLAND. That first sentence basically sums up this entire slate. Everything you do tonight will have a lot of uncertainty. Godley, despite being an underdog, gets a favorable matchup against the Giants in the very pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Since the start of last season, Godley has a solid 3.88 SIERA just slightly above his 3.66 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging strikes. He has a very high 54.2% groundball rate but allows above average 32.9% hard contact. He gets to face the Giants, who are swinging the bat pretty well right now. I had low expectations for them over the weekend, coming back home from their series in Coors Field, but they went on to sweep the Phillies and are looking to build on that momentum today. Still, despite the recent success, they have the second highest strikeout rate on the slate at 25.1% against right-handed pitching with only a .143 ISO, .313 wOBA, and 100 wRC+. Average to below average team numbers at best. Against lefties, Godley has a 3.49 xFIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate. His 60.9% groundball rate is massive and he only allows a .299 wOBA and 30.8% hard contact rate. With a groundball rate that high, in a park like this, that is not left-handed power friendly, he should have little trouble with the lefties. Plus, Brandon Belt will be out tonight. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.56 xFIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate. The groundball rate drops to 48% to righties while the wOBA rises slightly to .303 and the hard contact is a bit concerning at 35%. He’s a viable option today, with a low floor but a decent ceiling given his strikeout abilities and a Giants team that tends to strikeout at an above average rate. He's not my favorite play but I wouldn't fault you for going here.

Julio Teheran, ATL (@SD) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $7.6K)

Quite honestly, there’s not a whole lot about Teheran that is appealing to me other than he’s facing the Padres at Petco Park today, which puts him squarely in consideration. His has a 4.84 SIERA with below average 18.8% strikeouts. He allows a high 44.1% fly ball rate and 38.6% hard contact. All of these things should be mitigated today, however, in this matchup. For starters, his strikeout rate will get a boost facing a San Diego team who strikes out 25.9% of the time to right-handed pitching (the highest on the slate). His fly ball rate and hard contact allowed should also be suppressed against a team with only a .119 ISO, .285 wOBA, and 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Plus, this game is at Petco Park which is the second-best pitcher park in baseball. Further adding to Teheran’s appeal is his home/road splits. So far this season, he has actually pitched better on the road than he has at home. When away, he has a 3.18 ERA and 4.76 xFIP compared to a 4.91 ERA and 5.17 xFIP at home. He’s allowing a .280 wOBA and 33.7% hard contact rate on the road compared to a .355 wOBA and 43.3% hard contact rate at home. Even the strikeout rate goes up when they are away at 20.3% compared to 18.9% at home. I always have interest in the pitcher facing San Diego, so I'm not going to stop tonight. I think there's potential that he goes lower owned because the surface numbers don't look great and he's the second highest pitcher on the slate.

Value Pitchers

Domingo German, NYY (@DET) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $6.6K)

This is my favorite option of the night and, honestly, it's not close. German’s sample size is smaller than everyone else on the slate, which increases the risk, but on such a small slate I’m going to take a stand and trust the numbers we have for him. His 3.81 SIERA is nearly a full run below his 4.78 ERA. He has a very impressive 28% strikeout rate with a 13% swinging strike rate. His groundball rate is solid at 44.7% while allowing 32.8% hard contact. Really, the only true knock on him at this stage is the high walk rate of 12.3%. When facing left-handed batters, he has a 4.06 xFIP, 23.8% strikeouts, and 48.5% groundballs. He allows only a .276 wOBA and 26.5% hard contact. But, he has a high 11.4% walk rate and his BABIP is at a very low .203. Both are reasons to be concerned. When facing righties, he has a 3.13 xFIP with an outstanding 32.1% strikeout rate. He has 13.2% walks, however, and allows a .331 wOBA and 40.4% hard contact. The groundball rate also decreases against righties to 40%. But, opposite the incredibly low BABIP against lefties, it’s incredibly high against righties at .370. For the most part, the numbers are telling us we should still see some changes in German’s numbers. The strikeout upside is real, judging by the high swinging strikes, but he still has a lot of positive regression coming his way when facing righties and negative regression coming his way when facing lefties. We should see these numbers balance out over time. Hopefully, we’ll see that positive regression start coming his way today as he’ll be facing a very right-handed heavy Detroit Tigers team. Detroit has a low 20.7% strikeout rate but German should be able to overcome that with his high strikeout potential. The Tigers also have a below average .149 ISO, .307 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. It’s a bit intimidating to target a pitcher from the game with the highest O/U of the night at 10 runs. Granted a lot of that is coming from the Yankees, but even the Tigers have the third highest implied total of the slate. He’s the biggest favorite of the day at -200 and, in my opinion, the reward outweighs the risk in this spot.

Nick Tropeano, LAA (@KC) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8K)

Tropeano is not a guy I like to use often because he allows a lot of hard contact. But, he does have the upside to do some damage on your tournament lineups even with the low floor. He has a 4.50 SIERA which is well above his 3.80 ERA. His strikeout rate sits at 20.4% but it comes with an 11.6% swinging strike rate which tells us his strikeouts should go up a bit higher. Where it gets sketchy is his above average 44.1% fly ball rate and 43.3% hard contact rate allowed. To left-handed bats, the xFIP is an uncomfortable 4.18 with only a 17.9% strikeout rate while allowing a .333 wOBA and a massive 45.3% hard contact rate. Versus right-handed batters, the xFIP goes up to 5.02 but his strikeout rate improves to 22.7%. Still, he allows a very scary 52.4% fly ball rate with 41.3% hard contact. He’s going up against a Royals team tonight that I hate to target with pitching but you have to consider them on such a small slate. They never strikeout, with just a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. But, the good news is, they also have very little power, which should help a guy like Tropeano with his high fly balls and hard contact. Kansas City only has a .127 ISO, .305 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ against righties. He’s a very comfortable -185 favorite and coming off a couple of solid starts where he’s averaged 22.65 FPPG (DraftKings scoring), and 39 FPPG (FanDuel scoring). He's firmly in play on this small slate.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• New York Yankees (vs. Mike Fiers): The Yankees have the highest implied total on the slate tonight at 5.64. That’s nearly a full run above the Angels who are the next closest team. They will face Mike Fiers who has an extremely low 15.3% strikeout rate while allowing 44% fly balls and 33.9% hard contact. All of the Yankees are in play here but Fiers does allow more power to the right-handed side of the plate, so I would prioritize the big three of Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton along with Torres and Andujar. If you’re rolling out multiple lineups, definitely don’t be afraid to include Bird and/or Gregorius as part of full stacks. This is the only game in a hitter-friendly park tonight. Watch the wind here. Right now it’s forecasted to be blowing across the diamond at 16 mph, which doesn’t help anyone. But I’ve seen models that show it blowing in and others that show it blowing out. If it’s blowing out, bombs away. If it’s blowing in, at such a high speed, you could make a case for an interesting fade of the chalk here on such a small slate. Definitely check on that prior to lock.

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Danny Duffy): This is not a good spot for Duffy against a team that can go extremely right-handed heavy. Right-handed bats lower his already sliding strikeout rate to below 20% and he allows a .350 wOBA and 34.6% hard contact. Assuming Ohtani is moved down in the order or left out of the game entirely today, I like basically 1-7 in this spot with Kinsler, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Simmons, Maldonado, and Cozart. Whichever player between Cozart and Kinsler that is moved down in the order is a sneaky play as they both have over a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching. The Royals bullpen is also among the worst in the league, so the Angels could be the gift that keeps on giving today.

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Clayton Richard): I’m seeing some love for Clayton Richard already today, which is making me love the Braves even more than I already did. I realize they are not as intimidating against left-handed pitching without Ronald Acuna Jr., but are you really going to completely count out the best team in baseball against lefties just because one player is missing? They still have a .185 ISO, .348 wOBA, and 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Richard’s numbers are average at best. He has a solid 3.92 SIERA and a 56.5% groundball rate but only a 19.7% strikeout rate and a very concerning 38.3% hard contact rate. He doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, but when he does they leave the yard nearly 20% of the time. The argument against the Braves today will be that they are flying across the country and playing the same day. I get that, but you have to go against the grain on small slates like this to succeed in tournaments. The Braves currently have the second lowest implied total on the board at just 3.62. If that’s going to make them low owned, despite the numbers we just discussed, they easily become my favorite stack of the night.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Derek Holland): This is another team with a surprisingly low total coming out of Vegas today that I don’t agree with. Arizona is just above the Braves with a 3.83 implied total but their bats are really heating up lately, specifically against left-handed pitching. Today, they face Derek Holland, who needs no introduction. He’s not a good pitcher; with a below average strikeout rate and an awful 7.9% swinging strike rate. Arizona has a high strikeout rate against left-handed pitching but that’s not a concern against Holland. They also have incredible power with a massive .220 ISO (higher than the Yankees), .336 wOBA, and 112 wRC+. Ever since Jake Lamb returned, they seem to have flipped a switch. John Ryan Murphy is also finding his way into the lineup more and he has massive power against left-handed pitching. The right-handed bats are the priority here with Goldschmidt, Murphy, and Ahmed leading the way. If the Yankees and Angels are going to be the chalk stacks today, I love the Braves/Diamondbacks combo as a pivot play.

• San Diego Padres (vs. Julio Teheran): There’s not really a clear-cut sneaky stack today because it’s such a small slate, but the Padres are probably as close as it gets. They are just never a team we like to associate with stacking but they do have some power from the left side that makes them interesting. They are also sitting right in the middle in terms of implied totals today and will probably carry next to no ownership even on a four-game slate. Teheran has a 5.61 xFIP with only 17.3% strikeouts and a very high 13.4% walk rate to left-handed bats. He also has a 1.47 WHIP while allowing a .334 wOBA and 37.3% hard contact. Jankowski, Hosmer, Galvis, and Lopez are my favorite options here. I’d like this spot a lot more if Cordero were not on the disabled list right now.

Overall, my suggestion here is not to go very heavy tonight if at all. Maybe get a jump start on your research for tomorrow instead. It’s just a huge travel day around the league and not an optimal night for DFS purposes. I’ll probably do a low dollar three max entry on both sites just for fun, and I’ll be targeting the Braves/Diamondbacks combo as a pivot off the Yankees with German. Maybe I’ll mix in a couple of different SP2 options. Not going crazy here. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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