Shoutout to LineStar subscriber Josias, who hangs out with us in chat all the time, for running away with the freeroll last night!

Really Minnesota? Really Boston? Both of these teams couldn't have asked for better matchups yesterday and they did next to nothing with them. The Twins even had 13 innings to get the job done! That's baseball for you. When you think you have it all figured out, it doesn't go the way you planned. Hopefully you guys made it through okay last night. I had to ride a handful of home runs from players outside of my main stacks to get to the minimum cash line. I'll take that all day. Baseball is about surviving. You play the percentages, manage your bankroll, and if you survive enough slates, eventually you'll hit. If you can keep that process going, you'll hit enough times to turn a nice profit, which is what everyone's goal is in the end. We've got a big-time Friday night slate to get to that I'm pretty excited about. There's plenty of pitching to work with, including some arms I'm feeling pretty good about for SP2, which has been a complete wasteland all week. It's very hot and humid around the league today with games in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Cincinnati, Texas, and St.Louis that are all over 90 degrees. I see almost no threats of rain anywhere, which is a nice change this week, and very little wind helping out in either direction. We've got a lot to talk about, so let's jump in and start this weekend off right!

Power Pitching Options

There are four arms in the top tier that are all worth considering. I think the best way to approach this is to break it down with some "blind resume" so we can get a good side by side comparison. That way, we get to discuss each of them and then I'll rank them at the end.

We’ll start off with some high-level, overall numbers. Each of these guys has a very impressive SIERA, over 30% strikeouts, and reasonable walk rates. Pitcher #1 has the highest strikeout rate but only the third highest swinging strike rate, so he should eventually level off with the rest of this group. Nothing stands out to me here. We should be happy to have an opportunity to roster any of them.

Here are the splits against left-handed batters. Pitcher #1 has a ridiculous 2.37 xFIP with 41.9% strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. They do, however, let up a lot of fly balls and are potentially prone to the long ball. Pitcher #3 has an ugly walk rate, WHIP, ISO, wOBA, and hard contact allowed. Pitcher #4 is looking solid with 33.2% strikeouts, 45.1% groundballs, and only a .094 and .256 wOBA allowed.

Here are the splits against right-handed batters. Pitcher #2 stands out here. 2.35 xFIP, 34.5% strikeout rate while forcing nearly 50% groundballs and allowing just a .039 ISO, .202 wOBA, and 28.7% hard contact. The fly ball rate and 12.7% HR/FB is still really bothering me with pitcher #1. Pitcher #3 is much better against right-handed pitching than left, but they are allowing 42.3% hard contact, which is concerning.

This shows the numbers of the opponent they are facing today against the pitcher’s handedness. All of these teams strikeout and walk pretty close to the same rate and all the BABIP is very close to the average so I don’t see much regression one way or the other. Pitcher #4 has a difficult matchup as their opponent has a .179 ISO and 41.6% hard-hit rate. Pitcher #3 has the next most difficult matchup and he had all those red flags against left-handed batters. It’s safe to say, at this point, they will be last on this list. Pitcher #1 and #2 both have appealing matchups against teams with low ISO and wOBA. Pitcher #2’s opponent strikes out just a little more and has a higher groundball rate, with a slightly lower ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ than Pitcher #1. So I’m going to give them the edge.

Okay, we’ve seen the strikeout upside, splits, and matchups. At this point, I’ve got a pretty good idea of how I’m going to rank these guys. Let’s factor in price and a few other things that may help our decision. Right off the bat, Pitcher #3 is priced well below the rest of this tier, which makes sense given some of the issues we found. In hindsight, I probably didn’t need to include him in this group but the initial strikeout upside was intriguing. This is tough. All of these guys are similar favorites, no help from the weather, and there aren’t any big enough differences in the ballpark for that to weigh in a whole lot. Pitcher #4 is the highest priced player on FanDuel and the second highest on DraftKings, yet they have the toughest matchup by far. They are the one player who is not in an extreme pitcher’s park today, and their opponent’s implied run total is the highest of the remaining three. There’s a fairly significant price difference between pitcher #1 and #2 on DraftKings. Pitcher #1 is $600 less but is a heavier favorite, and their opponent has a lower implied run total (though by very little).

Honestly, outside of Pitcher #3, who is really in a tier just slightly below the rest of this group in terms of talent, we should be happy if we land on any of these guys. There’s one other factor that was difficult to show when viewing the numbers this way, and that is Pitcher #2 has an opponent that is very right-handed heavy. We saw how strong he was against right-handed batters when we looked at the splits and that is ultimately having me lean in his direction. My top arm of the night is Jacob deGrom. I know, we have the “Marlins Factor” to think about. If you aren't familiar with what that is, basically the Marlins, despite nothing on paper that would indicate this, have found a way to ruin the nights of many DFS players multiple times this season when they are facing an elite pitcher. I’m not going to let that sway me because everything else suggests he’s your best bet today. But I understand if that makes you nervous. After him, in cash, I would go with Pitcher #1, who is Gerrit Cole. In reality, I’m more interested, from a talent perspective, in Pitcher #4, who is Trevor Bauer. But, Cole’s matchup today is what is putting him ahead. Bauer has a tough task against an Oakland team that hits right-handed pitching really well, but I would consider him an elite tournament option tonight, as he’ll likely carry the least amount of ownership of the top three in this group. Pitcher #3 is Patrick Corbin. I really didn’t need to include him here. He’s clearly not in the conversation, but I was intrigued by his 32.5% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging strike rate enough to make him as part of this comparison. He’s an elite tournament option tonight as well (he’ll go overlooked completely with people looking to pay above him or below him). For me, deGrom is the priority and the player I’m looking to fit into my cash game lineups today, and Bauer is the one I'm most interested in for tournaments.

Value Pitching Options

Marco Gonzales, SEA (vs. KC) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.3K)

I really like Gonzales in this spot as an SP2. He’s pitching really well this season and brings a 3.75 SIERA with 21.1% strikeouts into a matchup with a very weak Kansas City Royals team. I don’t typically like to target the Royals with pitchers, as their strikeout rate is very low, but it does increase to 21.4% against left-handed pitching and comes with a poor .139 ISO, .302 wOBA, and 89 wRC+. For splits, Gonzales has a .389 xFIP with 45.8% groundballs while allowing just a .136 ISO and .295 wOBA against left-handed bats. My concerns here are a very low 14.5% strikeout rate and a very high 42% hard contact rate. But, Moustakas is really the only left-handed bat in this lineup you are worried about, so that’s not going to scare us away. When facing right-handed bats, the numbers improve with a 3.41 xFIP and 22.4% strikeout rate while allowing a similar 44.9% groundball rate, .150 ISO, and .324 wOBA. Again, hard contact here is the one concern, though it’s better against righties at 35.1%. Besides, which right-handed bat are you really worried can exploit that? Merrifield and Perez, maybe, but that’s really it. Gonzales is the largest favorite on the board today at -210 and at home, in a pitcher-friendly park (that avoids all the heat and humidity too). His upside is questionable, so he may not be the best tournament play, but I think he’s a really safe SP2 option for cash games.

Marcus Stroman, TOR (vs. DET) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.2K)

Stroman returned from the disabled list in his last start and pitched very well in a tough matchup against the Angels. He scattered six hits over five innings without allowing a run and only issuing one walk. He had five strikeouts. Today, he gets a similar matchup with another right-handed heavy (and less powerful) Tigers lineup, which I think really plays in his favor. He has a respectable 4.03 SIERA with a below average, 18.8% strikeout rate. He gives up a massive 45.4% hard contact rate but he’s also, arguably, the best groundball pitcher in baseball at 62.6%. He’s taking on a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup today, which should provide his fantasy output with a little boost. Against right-handed batters, Stroman's strikeouts increase to 22.2% with a comfortable 3.52 xFIP. He still gives up a ton of hard contact (45.5%) but he keeps the ball on the ground an incredible 67.9% of the time. This results in only a .133 ISO allowed. He’s worse against lefties, but not by much, and he will only see a couple of them in this lineup today. The strikeout rate drops all the way to 16.4%, but the xFIP is still fine at 3.96 and he continues to force nearly 60% groundballs despite 45.4% hard contact allowed. Again, because of the groundballs, he only gives up a .145 ISO. It’s possible the Tigers single and double him to death with a lot of hard-hit ground balls, he does allow a .351 wOBA to lefties and a .339 wOBA to righties, but I really think Stroman can eat up some innings and limit the damage in this spot. Plus, we can add a few more strikeouts on top since he’s up against so many right-handed bats today. As an added bonus, Detroit doesn’t matchup well against his pitch types. Castellanos (.204 ISO, .343 wOBA) and Martin (.178 ISO, .352 wOBA) are the biggest risks. Everyone else has a below average ISO and wOBA. He's another massive favorite today, at -200, and he's extremely affordable on both sites. He has appeal as an SP2 in both cash and tournaments tonight.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

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• Eugenio Suarez, CIN (vs. Chase Anderson): Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher, which may actually help him out against a team full of left-handed power bats, but Suarez is the one player who is standing out to me. Anderson is allowing a .233 ISO with an 18.4% HR/FB rate on 43.8% fly balls and 36.2% hard contact. This has resulted in 2.01 HR/9 against right-handed bats this season. Suarez has been outstanding so far this year with a .266 ISO and 46.4% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. He also matches up well against Anderson’s pitch types. His top three pitches against righties are a fastball, curveball, and cutter. Suarez has a .266 ISO against those pitch types, including a massive .700 ISO against curveballs this year.

• Yadier Molina, STL (vs. Julio Tehran): Tehran allows a 17% HR/FB rate on 42.3% fly balls with a 34.8% hard contact rate, which has resulted in a .234 ISO against right-handed bats. I thought Molina would have a smaller sample size with some of the time he missed but he’s actually had 150 at-bats against right-handed pitching, which is more than enough for me to trust the numbers. He has a .233 ISO and a massive 47.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

• Jesus Aguilar, MIL (vs. Sal Romano): He’s been very, very good to me lately. This will be my third time calling a home run from him this week but I’m 2 for 2 so far so why stop now? In the past week, Aguilar has a .696 wOBA, .889 ISO, and 350 wRC+. He has five home runs in his last six games. His next victim is Sal Romano, who’s allowing a .208 ISO to right-handed bats including a 20.5% HR/FB on 31.4% fly balls with 34% hard contact. As if he wasn’t on fire enough, he has a .309 ISO and 45.4% hard-hit rate against righties this season.

• Yoan Moncada, CWS (vs. Yovani Gallardo): Since being recalled from Triple-A, Gallardo has made two starts and allowed nine earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched, while giving up three home runs. They should probably send him back down. But, until they do, we can have some fun rostering players against him. Moncada gets a nice park upgrade in the hot Texas heat today. He has a .214 ISO and 43.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He matches up very well with Gallardo’s pitch types with a .218 ISO and 85.8 mph aEV so far this season.

• Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (vs. Andrew Suarez): Sorry for the “Thank You Captain Obvious” moment but this is too good of a spot to not mention. Suarez is allowing a .184 ISO and 19.5% HR/FB rate on 30% fly balls with an abysmal 50% hard contact rate to right-handed pitchers. I think Goldy goes yard twice tonight in this matchup. As we know, he crushes left-handed pitching with a .392 ISO and 52.5% hard-hit rate so far this season. He’s been red-hot all month long with a .400 ISO with a 59.2% hard contact rate in June.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day

• Nick Williams, PHI (vs. Erick Fedde): The sample size on Fedde is still pretty small, so I pulled last year’s numbers to combine with this season and give us a larger sample size to work with. It’s not pretty for Fedde against left-handed batters. He does force 60.3% groundballs, which is obviously really good, but of the 17.2% fly balls he allows, 40% of them go for home runs. He’s giving up a .225 ISO and 32.3% hard contact. Williams, to my surprise, has a .224 ISO and 31.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He profiles well against Fedde’s pitch types, with a .224 ISO and .230 xISO. He makes for an outstanding value option today and has a good chance to put one in the seats.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Chicago White Sox (vs. Yovanni Gallardo): I’ve been picking on the White Sox bats with pitchers quite a bit recently, but now it’s their turn to have the fun. They get a great matchup today against a struggling Yovanni Gallardo down in hitter-friendly Texas where it will be around 100 degrees at first pitch. Gallardo’s sample size is small, but he has a 6.80 xFIP with more walks than strikeouts while allowing a .310 ISO and .442 wOBA against left-handed batters. Yoan Moncada, who we already talked about in the home run watch list, is my favorite option both from this team and one of my favorite options on the whole slate. Daniel Palka has a .203 ISO and 34.7% hard-hit rate while Yolmer Sanchez has a .177 ISO against right-handed pitching. Against right-handed batters, Gallardo has a 5.65 xFIP while allowing a .250 ISO and .461 wOBA. This time, he has more strikeouts than walks, but it’s still a very low 16.1% strikeout rate. Jose Rondon is my second favorite option from this team behind Moncada, as he has a .310 ISO, .471 wOBA and 47.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Matt Davidson (.195 ISO, 38.1% hard-hits), Avisail Garcia (34.5% hard-hits), Jose Abreu (.195 ISO, 34.2% hard-hits), and Tim Anderson (.183 ISO) are all on the radar as well. These guys are pretty affordable too, which makes them even more appealing.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Ian Kennedy): Admittedly, this isn’t one of the better hitter’s environments today, with some of the hot weather and hitter’s parks on the east coast. But Kennedy is proving to be a great pitcher to attack this season. Against lefties, he’s allowing a .214 ISO, .346 wOBA, and 41.7% hard contact rate. Against righties, he’s allowing a .195 ISO, .344 wOBA and 38.1% hard contact rate. He allows 45.1% fly balls and 11.8% HR/FB to lefties and 42% fly balls and 14.3% HR/FB to righties. Convinced? It gets better. Let’s look at some Seattle batters against right-handed pitching: Cruz (.258 ISO, .368 wOBA, 39.4% hard-hits), Zunino (.241 ISO, 41.3% hard-hits), Haniger (.236 ISO, .357 wOBA, 37.9% hard-hits), Healy (.220 ISO, 40.6% hard-hits), Span (.218 ISO, .383 wOBA, 36.4% hard-hits), Seager (.212 ISO, 41.1% hard-hits), Segura (.355 wOBA), Gamel (.360 wOBA). Stack them up!

• Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Francisco Liriano): The Blue Jays are a very right-handed heavy team with three switch-hitters in their everyday lineup. This is bad news for Liriano, who has a 5.07 xFIP with only 17% strikeouts and 12.7% walks against right-handed bats this season. He’s actually allowing a below average .169 ISO and .326 wOBA to righties, but a .254 xISO and .402 xwOBA along with a .264 BABIP suggest he’s been pretty lucky up to this point. With that low strikeout rate and a 34.8% hard contact rate, I’ll definitely take my chances. Toronto is crushing left-handed pitching this season with several players over a .200 ISO and 30% hard-hit rate. Hernandez (.305 ISO, .368 wOBA), Maile (.297 ISO, .404 wOBA, 55.6% hard-hits), Travis (.268 ISO), Solarte (.255 ISO), Smoak (.350 wOBA), and Morales (45.3% hard-hits) are my favorites here. Solarte and Hernandez in particular, profile very well against Liriano’s pitch types. So they are your priorities.

• New York Yankees (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez): Rodriguez has been pretty solid this season, particularly against right-handed batters, with a 3.98 xFIP, 23.3% strikeout rate and only allowing 25.6% hard contact. But, he’s a lefty, facing the Yankees, in the Bronx, in 90-degree weather. I’m going to go ahead and side with New York on this one. The Yankees are flat-out ridiculous against left-handed pitching, to the point where Aaron Judge has only the 8th highest ISO on the team! Giancarlo Stanton is a top five batter on the slate for me today with his .468 ISO, .493 wOBA, and 222 wRC+ against lefties this year. Andujar (.282 ISO), Hicks (.277 ISO, .369 wOBA), Torres (.268 ISO, .411 wOBA), Austin (.264 ISO, .350 wOBA), and Judge (.211 ISO, .369 wOBA) are all in play.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Andrew Suarez): The Diamondbacks are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching this season with a .200 ISO, .331 wOBA, 108 wRC+ and a 42% hard-hit rate. Today, they will face Andrew Suarez who, overall, is a pretty talented pitcher but has some real issues with right-handed batters. He’s allowing a .184 ISO and .366 wOBA with a 19.5% HR/FB on 30% fly balls. He also has a massive 50% hard contact rate. He’s a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup pitcher and several players on the Diamondbacks profile very well against those pitch types. Goldschmidt, like Stanton who I mentioned earlier, is a top-five player for me today. In addition to the numbers I talked about in the home run watch list, he has a .403 ISO and .460 wOBA against Suarez’s pitch types. Ahmed (.273 ISO, .374 wOBA), Murphy (.327 ISO, .391 wOBA), and Mathis (.200 ISO, .383 wOBA – punt catcher anyone?) are set up well against Suarez pitches also. Even Descalso, despite being a lefty, which Suarez is pretty good against, has some power upside here with a .220 ISO against Suarez’s pitch types. He’s not a priority, but you could include him if rolling out multiple stacks to make your teams different.

The Bullpen

• Part of the reason why I still have interest in Seattle today, despite being one of the few offenses not playing in a pitcher-friendly park in 90+ degree weather, is because they will get a full nine innings of bad pitchers. It will start with Kennedy and end with the Royals bullpen and their 4.60 xFIP and pathetic 17.6% strikeout rate.

• The Mets are an interesting option for stacking if you want to get really sneaky. Sandy Alcantara is being recalled to make the start today. He's 5-3 with a 4.94 xFIP and below average 18% strikeouts. He's stretched out, so if he's pitching well, he can go the distance. But he's young and very inexperienced. So if the Mets can get to him, they'll get some extra shots at the Marlins bullpen who have a 4.37 xFIP and 38.8% hard contact rate.

• The Angels are another team in a great spot today. They actually have one of the higher implied totals on the slate. I hate stacking them because, with Trout in the mix, it makes it really difficult to afford, but they are definitely in play. Hess has been terrible in his limited time in the majors and the Orioles bullpen won't provide any help with their 4.56 xFIP and 10.7% walk rate.

Spots to Avoid:

• The Indians intrigued me at first but they are still priced up and this is one of the worst hitter's environments on the slate today. Plus, the Oakland bullpen is respectable with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate.

• Honestly, I don't know what to do with the Red Sox. They have been better against left-handed pitching recently but they still aren't great. I was considering Sabathia as a tournament option last night and then Boston announced they had acquired career lefty masher, Steve Pearce, in a trade from the Blue Jays. If he's in that lineup tonight, that could make a big difference. But, even with that said, the Yankees still have one of the best bullpens in baseball. I'm on the fence about what to do here still.

Another week in the books! This is a great slate to end on. I really don't think you can go wrong with the top three pitchers. Jacob deGrom feels the safest to me with his incredible splits against righties facing a right-handed heavy team. Cole is in a great matchup but he's been prone to the long ball recently, including his last outing against this Tampa Bay team. Bauer has been absolute money but his matchup today makes me nervous about him for cash games. He's an elite, and my favorite, tournament option today. Corbin is the wildcard as he brings plenty of strikeout upside but also some obvious red flags, but he'll be very low owned at his price point. I also think you have some solid SP2 options including Gonzales, Stroman, Musgrove (depending on the San Diego lineup - they strike out a ton but he needs to avoid lefties). As far as bats are concerned, Trout, Betts, Martinez, Goldy, and Stanton are my top five and, ideally, I want at least one of them in my cash lineup. Some value from the White Sox might be the answer to making that happen. Have a wonderful weekend and good luck in your contests. I'll talk with you guys in the LineStar chat (@glandry) or on twitter (@GP_Landry) and I'll be back here with a new article on Monday. Thanks for reading!

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