I'm going to skip the intro today and get right to it as this is actually a pretty big slate for a Thursday and I want to be sure I get this published in time for you guys to read about the early games. As always, watch the weather and good luck today!

Early Slate

Jon Gray, COL (@SF) (DK: $9.5K, FD: $8.4K)

I’m not paying Kershaw’s salary right now. There is something very wrong with that situation. They skipped his rehab start and rushed him back when he clearly wasn’t ready and he goes out and gives up a couple of earned runs in only 3 innings pitched and gets the hook after just 55 pitches. His velocity is still down he just doesn’t seem right to me at all. That basically leaves us with Gray as the only higher priced, possible upside option on DraftKings today (Note: if you’re playing FanDuel they are including the 12:10 game between Arizona and Miami. Greinke is in consideration over there). Everything in Gray’s numbers suggest he’s pitching significantly better than what the actual results are. He has a 3.16 SIERA which is more than two runs below his 5.52 ERA. He has a 28.6% strikeout rate which is the highest of any pitcher today (not just on the early slate) and he has a 13.5% swinging strike rate. If we look at the splits, he’ll see a pretty good amount of batters from both sides of the plate today against this Giants lineup. Against lefties, the xFIP (2.74) is almost four runs lower than the ERA (6.17). He’s getting 30.7% strikeouts to only 6.9% walks. He is allowing a .344 wOBA and 37.3% hard contact but the BABIP is also super high at .370 so those numbers should decrease. Against right-handed batters, again, we have an xFIP (2.91) that is well below the ERA (4.79) with a still really good 26.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s able to get 51.2% groundballs while only allowing a .327 wOBA and 28.2% hard contact. Plus, the BABIP is even higher against righties at .388. So, here we have a guy with xFIPs that are significantly lower than the ERAs to both sides of the plate and BABIP that is incredibly high to both sides of the plate, that still forces above average groundballs and has massive strikeout upside (including swinging strikes). This all sounds like good news right? Unfortunately, it’s not that easy. We are banking on a lot of regression to fall our way for him to have the kind of fantasy output we are looking for. He’s also already faced the Giants twice this season and it hasn’t been pretty. On May 19th, he was only able to get through 3.2 innings (78 pitches) allowing nine hits and five earned runs while striking out four in a loss. On May 30th, he was only able to get through 3.1 innings pitched (91 pitches) allowing six hits and four earned runs with just five strikeouts. The first game was at Coors Field but the second game was not. Despite those results, the Giants are really not an intimidating matchup on paper. They have a 24.1% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching with just a .150 ISO and .315 wOBA. While there's definitely some risk, he's still my favorite arm on the early slate today. He’s coming off of three consecutive strong starts where he’s had 10, 9, and 12 strikeouts. In the past month he’s allowed 63 batted balls of which 19% of them have been soft contact and just three of them have been barelled. He’s only allowing an 87.1 mph aEV and an average distance of 210 feet. I’m going to roll the dice here that he’s getting some confidence back based on his recent results and we finally start to see some of that positive regression come his way. There’s a lot of risk (everyone is risky on this slate) but also plenty of upside to go with it.

Jake Odorizzi, MIN (@CWS) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.5K)

Value options on the early slate are limited. It basically comes down to Odorizzi and Mike Leake. Leake has pitched pretty well recently with two of his last three starts having over 35 DraftKings points (against tough opponents in the Angels and the Red Sox). My personal issue with him is he lacks any real upside. He only has a 14.4% strikeout rate so you are literally banking on him to eat innings, give up very few hits, and basically throw something close to a shutout every time he takes the mound cause he won’t get you points any other way. Odorizzi on the other hand, has similar numbers to Leake, but with a much higher 22.7% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging strike rate which believe it or not is third highest of any pitcher on this slate today including Greinke (11.1%), Nola (11.2%), and Kershaw (10.9%). He gets a good matchup against a White Sox team that I love to attack with pitchers. They strikeout 25.1% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .156 ISO, .306 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. If you used Gibson last night, I know he didn’t have the outing you were hoping for, but he still had a solid floor with seven strikeouts, you take away that one home run he gave up and he was one of the better pitchers of the night. I think Odorizzi can do something similar. In fact, he’s already faced the White Sox twice this season with positive results. On May 3rd he allowed six hits and five runs (only three earned) with eight strikeouts (31 DraftKings points) and on June 6th he allowed six hits and three earned runs with seven strikeouts (27 DraftKings points). He doesn’t come without risk. He’s a fly ball pitcher (49.1% to lefties and 50% to righties) so home runs are a concern, especially to lefties, where he also allows 37.6% hard contact. His saving grace today may be the slider, which he throws 33.8% of the time to right-handed batters and I don’t see a single White Sox player who has had any success hitting the slider this season. It’s far from safe, but he’s currently a -130 favorite and he should bring enough upside today to exceed your return on investment.

Main Slate

Lance McCullers, HOU (@TB) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $10.4K)

Pricing is all over the place today with the top tier. If you look at the all-day slate, Nola is the most expensive pitcher (by $400) on DraftKings but then he’s the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel (out of Kershaw, McCullers, and Greinke). The salary may change your opinion depending on the site but I’m going to view this strictly from a numbers standpoint. First off, I really want to recommend Nola here. I know that McCullers is going to be chalk facing the Rays and on a small slate I would much rather pivot to Nola, with similar upside, for less ownership. The problem is this will be Nola’s second straight start against the Nationals. We’ve seen this recently (looking at you Wade LeBlanc) where a pitcher goes out and throws a gem in the first start against a team and then faces them again only a week later and gets blasted. Nola did not throw a gem but he was serviceable in their first meeting. I just don’t think I can bring myself to do it knowing that Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto, etc all just saw this guy and now have the advantage. That leaves us with McCullers, who is in an excellent spot against the Tampa Bay Rays, who strikeout 22.7% of the time against right-handed pitching with just a .132 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 97 wRC+. McCullers, meanwhile, has a very comfortable 3.68 SIERA with 25.7% strikeouts and 12.7% swinging strikes. Against lefties, he has a 3.30 xFIP with a 29.2% strikeout rate. He forces 48.7% groundballs while allowing just a .260 wOBA. Against righties, he has a 3.65 xFIP with a lower but still respectable 21.9% strikeout rate. He’s forcing a massive 56.9% groundball rate while allowing an average .330 wOBA. I should point out the BABIP to lefties is a bit low (.221) but the BABIP to righties is a bit high (.328) so ultimately we should see his wOBA allowed end up somewhere right around the average to both sides of the plate. His signature pitch is a knucklecurve, which he throws 52% of the time to left-handed batters allowing just a .163 ISO and .261 wOBA and 34.8% of the time to right-handed batters allowing just a .147 ISO and .305 wOBA. Outside of CJ Cron (.444 ISO, .456 wOBA against knucklecurves) nobody on this Rays team has had any success hitting that pitch. He’s on the road, but a -150 favorite, in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. He brings plenty of upside and he profiles well against this team. He’s my favorite arm of all the pitchers available today.

Junior Guerra, MIL (@CIN) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.4K)

I'll start this off by saying the "safer" (there is very little safety on this slate) play tonight is Tanner Roark. If you're trying to play cash games on this small slate then Roark is the guy you want (unless you can figure out a way to jam in two high priced guys). It's a great matchup against the Phillies who you know I love to attack with pitching. They have the highest strikeout rate and lowest hard-hit rate of any team on the slate. But, I assume he'll be crazy popular. So, let me use this space to make a case for another guy we could potentially pivot with. I’m not playing Jaime Barria against Boston or Anthony DeSclafani against Milwaukee (we’ll talk more about that in a bit). Brian Johnson intrigued me, as the Angels don’t hit left-handed pitching as well as they should given all the right-handed bats they have in that lineup. But, Johnson is being primarily used out of the bullpen this season and hasn’t thrown more than 56 pitches in any outing. You could take a shot, given his cheap price tag, and hope he gets to maybe 60-65 pitches and gets you 10-15 DraftKings points but that’s a tough ask. That leaves us with Guerra against the Reds. Honestly, I don’t love it, but I’ll make an argument for him because I really don’t see another choice. He does have some strikeout upside, especially against lefties, at 24.4% (11.3% swinging strikes) and he’s allowing just a .166 ISO and .296 wOBA. The downside here is the BABIP is low at .250 so he will see at least some regression on that ISO and wOBA allowed. Against righties, the strikeout rate drops, but only slightly to 22.2% (while still maintaining an 11.7% swinging strike rate) but he’s only allowing a .091 ISO and .279 wOBA. BABIP here is closer to the average at .281 so I’m more confident in what I’m seeing with right-handed batters. He’s a fastball and slider pitcher and the Reds are having mixed results against those pitch types. They lack some power against the fastball with Gennett (.189 ISO), Votto (.175 ISO), Schebler (.186 ISO), and Duvall (.185 ISO) all having average to slightly above average isolated slugging percentages. Eugenio Suarez is the one guy who’s really strong against both pitch types. In the month of June, Guerra has allowed 70 batted balls, of which only two have been barreled, with an 18.6% soft contact rate, an 88.6 mph aEV, and an average distance of 197.1 feet. I think the strikeouts are there for him and he profiles well enough against this team that it doesn’t make me crazy nervous. I’ll be honest the one major concern for me is this game being played at Great American Ballpark in 88-degree weather. There's a lot of risk, but if forced to choose, he's my favorite option in the mid and value tiers on the main slate today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

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Early Slate

• Logan Morrison, MIN (vs. Lucas Giolito): Giolito is very, very bad against left-handed batters. I’ll go into more details in the stacking section. For now, he’s allowing 45.5% fly balls to lefties with a .219 ISO, .402 wOBA, and 86.3 mph aEV. He throws his fastball most often (nearly 57% of the time) and allows a .307 ISO with only 5.3% swinging strikes (maybe he should throw some other pitchers more?) Morrison’s ISO is a little lower than I’d like for a home run call (.174) but he does have a 39.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. This matchup sets up very well for him today. He has a .267 ISO and .294 xISO against fastballs this season.

• Khris Davis, OAK (vs. Michael Fulmer): Fulmer actually isn’t all that bad against right-handed batters this season. He’s allowing only a .109 ISO and .311 wOBA while forcing 50% groundballs. The problem is, he gives up a ton of hard contact at 42.5% and he’ll have to face Khris Davis today who should be able to put that hard contact to good use. He has a .295 ISO and 49.7% hard-hit rate against righties this season. Fulmer throws a slider, two-seam, and four-seam fastball against right-handed batters. Davis has a .250 ISO against sliders, a .269 ISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .471 ISO on four-seam fastballs.

• Ryon Healy, SEA (vs. Jimmy Yacabonis): We have very little to go off of in terms of sample size for Yacabonis. I pulled last season’s data and combined it with this season to create as much of a sample as I could. He has incredibly low strikeouts and incredibly high walks while allowing 10% HR/FB on 38.5% fly balls and 34.6% hard contact. Healy has a .212 ISO and 39.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this year. Yacabonis has thrown his slider 50% of the time against righties and Healy crushes sliders with a .361 ISO.

Main Slate

• Eric Thames, MIL (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): DeSclafani is getting ruined by left-handed power so far this season allowing 25% HR/FB on 36.4% fly balls and a massive 40% hard contact rate. This has led to a 2.38 HR/9. Thames is absolutely pounding right-handed pitching this year with a .337 ISO and 46% hard-hit rate. He also profiles really well against DeSclafani, who throws his fastball and slider most often against lefties. Thames has a .273 ISO against the fastball and a .333 ISO against sliders. Did I mention this game is in Great American Ballpark which was built for left-handed home runs? Thames honestly might be my favorite player today.

• Xander Bogaerts, BOS (vs. Jaime Barria): Opposite of DeSclafani, Barria is getting destroyed by right-handed power this season allowing a massive 49.3% fly ball rate and 18.9% HR/FB which had led to a 2.52 HR/9 rate. He’s allowing 41.3% hard contact, a .255 ISO, and a .344 xISO to righties this season. Bogaerts has a .249 ISO and 39% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As far as pitch types, Barria throws a slider nearly 50% of the time and a fastball almost 40% of the time. Xander has a .227 ISO against sliders and a .394 ISO against fastballs this season.

• Jesus Aguilar, MIL (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): I’m doubling down on my home run calls against DeScalafani who is just really having issues with hard contact to both sides of the plate and he won’t get any help in such a small ballpark. We already talked about his poor performance against lefties, against righties he’s allowing 14.3% HR/FB on 45.2% fly balls and a ridiculous 54.8% hard contact rate. This will be my second time calling a long ball from Aguilar this week and he came through for us the first time so let’s try to make it 2 for 2 today. He has a .309 ISO and 45.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. DeSclafani throws his slider 37.3% of the time and then a four-seam fastball 34% of the time and a two-seam fastball 24% of the time. Aguilar hits all these pitch types well including a .297 ISO against the slider, a .261 ISO against the four-seam, and a .357 ISO against the two-seam.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Early Slate

• Detroit Tigers (vs. Sean Manaea): Detroit let me down last night but I’m more excited about this spot (which I actually thought was going to be yesterday originally). Manaea has all kinds of problems with right-handed batters and he’ll see a very right-handed heavy lineup against him today. He has just 17.7% strikeouts while allowing 42.4% hard contact. The wOBA (.270) and ISO (.176) are both low but the xwOBA (.364), xISO (.255) and BABIP (.214) all suggest that he has some pretty serious regression coming. His two main pitches are a fastball and a changeup and the Tigers have multiple players who hit both of these very well. Candelario (.357 ISO, .450 wOBA vs. changeups and .333 ISO, .537 wOBA vs. fastballs), McCann (.231 ISO vs. changeups and .333 ISO vs. fastballs), Hicks (.286 ISO vs. changeups and .393 wOBA vs. fastballs), and Castellanos (.475 wOBA vs. changeups and .359 wOBA vs. fastballs) are my favorite options from this team today.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Lucas Giolito): I mentioned very briefly in the home run watch list about how bad Giolito is against left-handed batters. Let me provide you with a little more detail now. He has a 7.34 ERA and a 7.53 xFIP with just 9.6% strikeouts and 16.6% walks. That’s right, he walks nearly DOUBLE the amount of left-handed batters that he strikes out. I’m not done yet. He has a massive 1.97 WHIP while allowing a .219 ISO and .402 wOBA. The Twins can literally roll out seven left-handed batters and when they do it’s arguably their strongest lineup. This is a nightmare situation for Giolito which is why the Twins are my favorite stack possibly of the whole day. Cave (only has 20 at-bats but a .350 ISO and .355 wOBA), Escobar (.323 ISO, 43.2% hard-hit rate), Rosario (.286 ISO, 39.4% hard-hit rate), Morrison (40.9% hard-hit rate), Adrianza (40.9% hard-hit rate), Grossman (40.8% hard-hit rate), and Kepler (39.1% hard-hit rate) all have tons of potential in this matchup. Dozier has a .192 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate so don’t be afraid to include him in your stacks despite being right-handed. Down season or not, Dozier still has above average numbers and fills a typically weak second base position. It’s not like Giolito is much better against right-handed batters anyway.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Jimmy Yacabonis): We don’t have a huge data sample to go off of here so I’ll include some minor league numbers as well as everything we have on him in the majors going back to last season. In Triple-A, he’s currently 3-2 in 13 starts with a 4.31 xFIP and only 18.8% strikeouts. His GB/FB ratio is pretty average and he’s allowing quite a bit of hard contact. In the majors, dating back to the start of last season, he has a 7.14 SIERA with only 8.7% strikeouts and 18.3% walks. Yup, he actually does walk more than double the amount of batters he strikes out. He throws mainly two pitchers, a slider, and a fastball, and Seattle profiles very well against those pitch types with guys like Seager, Zunino, Haniger, and Healy all having an above average wOBA and ISO. Let’s not forget that Baltimore has one of the weaker bullpens in the league right now as well which was put on display last night with Britton’s blown save and the three earned runs they gave up which ultimately ended in a loss. Seattle is in a great spot yet again today.

Main Slate

• Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): Just in case I didn’t get my point across in the home run watch list I’ll reiterate it again here. I like the Brewers tonight. A LOT. They will actually have a watered down lineup without Lorenzo Cain and possibly Travis Shaw but it really shouldn’t matter. This is a park upgrade, even for Milwaukee who already plays in a hitter-friendly environment, and DeSclafani’s numbers are pretty bad. He has less than 20% strikeouts to both sides of the plate and allows 40% hard contact to lefties and 54.8% hard contact to righties. Despite the lower hard contact rate, I would still prioritize lefties (hopefully Shaw plays) as he’s allowing a .310 ISO and .378 wOBA to that side of the plate. Thames (.337 ISO), Aguilar (.309 ISO), Shaw (.297 ISO), Kratz (.259 ISO), Yelich (.204 ISO), and Braun (.199 ISO) are all high priorities for me.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Jaime Barria): I do believe in the long run that Barria has some talent but he’s got a lot of developing left to do and this matchup is going to be bad for his confidence. What’s mainly standing out to me is the 37.8% hard contact to left-handed batters and the 41.3% hard contact to right-handed batters. He just can’t afford to get hit that hard against an offense that’s this powerful. He’s also worse against righties as evidenced by the hard contact rate I just mentioned and the .255 ISO and .364 wOBA he allows. Mookie and JD Martinez are your top two players of the day and I think Xander Bogaerts is going to be ranked pretty high up on my list as well. Martinez (.369 ISO, .456 wOBA), Betts (.326 ISO, .450 wOBA), Moreland (.288 ISO, .406 wOBA), Benintendi (.241 ISO, .404 wOBA), and Bogaerts (.249 ISO, .362 wOBA) are the priorities. Don’t sleep on Rafael Devers who has a .195 ISO as well.

• Houston Astros (vs. Whatever Rays Pitcher): I honestly don’t know who the follow guy is tomorrow after Stanek. All of these guys have pitched within the last couple of days. If I had to guess, I’d say it’s going to be Ryan Yarbrough, who last appeared on the 24th but only threw one inning against the Yankees. Either way, I actually think Houston could go a bit overlooked for such a small slate with all the other games being held in hitter’s ballparks and this one being in a very pitcher-friendly park. I could be completely wrong on that theory, but I think the Angels against Brian Johnson is going to be fairly popular with a left-handed Johnson going up against a ton of right-handed bats. But, the Angels actually don’t profile all that well against Johnson and they actually don’t hit left-handed pitching that great to begin with. Plus, Johnson isn’t fully stretched out so they’ll likely be facing the Boston bullpen for extended innings which would actually be a downgrade. I’m going to stick with the defending World Champs, in a bat hitter’s environment instead. Alex Bregman is the hottest hitter on the planet at the moment so I’d start all stacks with him.

The Bullpen

• The Cubs present an interesting stack. I don't trust Kershaw right now at all and the Dodgers bullpen is nothing to shy away from. They have a 4.07 xFIP so far this season.

• I'll reiterate the fact that this is a bullpen game for the Orioles who have a bullpen that carries at 4.60 xFIP and just 20.4% strikeout rate. Fire up Seattle today.

• Oakland is an interesting stack option. They didn't stand out to me quite as much as the others but Fulmer does allow a lot of hard contact and the Athletics have a 41% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Fulmer is backed up by a poor Detroit bullpen and their 4.52 xFIP and 37.3% hard contact rate.

Main Slate:

• If Gray is going to be popular I gave you both sides of that story. You could take a shot on the Giants bats and hope they get to him once again. This would mean extra opportunities against the Colorado bullpen and their 4.28 xFIP and 36.2% hard contact rate.

• Yet another reason to love the Brewers stack today is they will face the Reds bullpen who are allowing 10.1% walks and 38.2% hard contact.

• Yet another reason to not like the Reds stack is even if they can get through Guerra the Milwaukee bullpen is excellent with a 3.29 xFIP and 28.8% strikeout rate this season.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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