Top MLB Plays 6/27 | Questionable Pitching Options

Live look at me researching pitchers for this slate

We basically get the opposite of yesterday's slate today. We had a loaded top-tier of pitching to work with and today, I want nothing to do with anyone priced over $8.5K. Bumgarner is fine, I guess, but the strikeout rate hasn't been there since his return, and the Rockies hit left-handed pitching well. Taking Colorado out of Coors and putting them in a huge park like AT&T Park always helps, but I just don't see the upside for Bumgarner, especially at his price. I love Robbie Ray but I'm not paying that much for a guy who won't throw more than 80 pitches in his first start off the disabled list. Jack Flaherty has been very good recently. He's even made drastic improvements against left-handed batters, which he was struggling with earlier in the year, but I'm not going to force a pitcher against the Cleveland Indians. Maybe, just maybe, you could talk me into Rick Porcello but there are other options I like more, for less money, so why bother? This is going to be a value pitching only slate for me. The bad news is that means we'll be rostering pitchers with less safety than we'd like for our most expensive position. The good news is we get to load up on bats and there are several good spots for offense today.  As far as the weather goes, several spots including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, and New York all have threats of rain that we'll need to watch. It's going to be hot in St.Louis, around 90 degrees, and crazy hot in Texas at over 100 degrees, so give a nice bump to the bats in those spots. We've also got some potential winds blowing out over 10 mph in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. There will be a lot to pay attention to today so make sure you have enough time to check the weather (probably more than once) before you make your final decisions.  

Value Pitchers

Kyle Gibson, MIN (@CWS) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.3K)

Gibson gets a very favorable matchup today against a White Sox team that has the second highest strikeout rate (25%), the lowest walk rate (6.7%), and the second lowest hard-hit rate (30.6%) on the slate. His numbers don’t get me excited but they don’t make me nervous either (that’s going to be a theme for today) and the matchup provides some added security. He has a 4.19 SIERA with 23.3% strikeouts and 11% swinging strikes. If we look at the splits, he’ll see a good mix of players from both sides of the plate today. His numbers don’t change all that much between right-handed and left-handed batters. Against lefties, he has a 4.14 xFIP with 23.3% strikeouts while forcing 44.1% groundballs and allowing just a .282 wOBA. Against righties, the xFIP comes down a bit to 3.81 and the strikeout rate is exactly the same at 23.3%. His groundball rate increases to 50.7% and he allows just a .286 wOBA. I do have a few concerns. First, the walks. He has a 10.1% walk rate to left-handed batters and an 11% walk rate to right-handed batters. But, as I pointed out already, Chicago has the lowest walk rate on the slate today, so that should help cancel some of this out for Gibson. Next concern is the hard contact rate. He’s allowing 40.4% to lefties and 36.5% to righties. Obviously, this isn’t ideal but the groundball rate definitely helps with that. He only has a 0.72 HR/9 against lefties and a 1.05 HR/9 against righties. Most impressively, his starts during the month of June have come against Cleveland (twice), the Angels, and the Red Sox. Despite those difficult matchups, he’s only allowing an 87.4 mph aEV with an average distance of just 196.4 feet. His ability to keep the ball on the ground really helps him keep things under control. Facing the White Sox should seem like a cakewalk after four games against those high powered offenses. I like how this lines up today. He has a strong floor in this spot and the White Sox will add to his strikeout upside, and thus, increase the ceiling. He’s a comfortable -137 today and strongly in consideration for both cash games and tournaments. 

Very solid in some bad matchups

Shane Bieber, CLE (@STL) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $7.4K)

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Bieber’s price only increased by $100 on DraftKings after he threw a gem in his last start. I think we are getting a little help with the price because his ownership in the previous start was so low. If you recall, that game had a ton of weather concerns and a lot of people (unfortunately myself included) pivoted off of him. The low ownership is likely what’s giving us another chance to use him at this price. The game ended up playing and he went seven innings allowing only four hits, zero walks, zero earned runs, and striking out nine. He faced Detroit in that game, who profiles very similar to St. Louis with both teams being right-handed heavy. Bieber’s sample size is still small but he continues to back up his impressive minor league numbers. He has a 2.78 SIERA with 29% strikeout rate and 12% swinging strikes. Against left-handed bats, which he’ll most likely only see two or three of (Carpenter, Fowler, and Garcia) he has a 3.69 xFIP with 25.5% strikeouts. The red flag here is he’s allowing a .413 wOBA and 53.1% hard contact rate but the BABIP is .433, which is incredibly high, so I don’t expect either of those numbers to remain as high as they are now. Plus, like we already talked about, he should only see a maximum of three left-handed bats anyway. When facing right-handed batters, he has an insane 1.14 xFIP with 34.5% strikeouts and he’s yet to give up a single walk. He has an elite 0.91 WHIP while forcing 63.2% groundballs and has yet to give up a home run. His wOBA allowed to righties is .212 and the BABIP is currently well above average at .368. While these numbers aren’t sustainable in the long run, the high BABIP gives me confidence that even if he does see some regression, it won’t be anything too drastic. Despite the inexperience, he’s my favorite pitcher on the board today. He’s at a pitcher-friendly park, facing a bunch of right-handed bats, against a team that has just a .152 ISO, .310 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I think the floor is a little lower than Gibson (mainly because of the inexperience) but the ceiling is much higher with the strikeout upside he brings to the mound. I love him for both cash games and tournaments today.  

He continues to impress

Wade LeBlanc, SEA (@BAL) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $6.5K)

We’ll continue with our theme today of pitchers who aren’t good enough to get me excited but not bad enough to make me concerned either. LeBlanc is pitching better than advertised as a bullpen arm turned starter this season. He has a 4.14 xFIP with an average 19.8% strikeout rate. He’ll get some help today against the Orioles, who check in with the lowest hard-hit rate of any team on the slate at just 29.9%. They have terrible numbers against left-handed pitching including a .137 ISO, .289 wOBA, and 80 wRC+. I’m really only concerned with how he does against right-handed batters, as he’ll likely see an identical lineup to what James Paxton saw last night. It had eight right-handed bats and Chris Davis (who went 0-3 with, you guessed it, 3 strikeouts) who is striking out 40.3% of the time to left-handed pitching this season. My interest in LeBlanc is (well, besides the fact that there aren’t a lot of good options today) because he has reverse splits which should serve him well in this spot. His strikeout rate increases to 21.4% against right-handed batters with a very low 1.18 WHIP and allowing just a .293 wOBA. Against lefties, he’s slightly worse allowing a .326 wOBA and the strikeout rate drops to 15.3% but, again, Chris Davis. LeBlanc also does a great job managing hard contact, only allowing 27.6% to left-handed batters and 31% to right-handed batters. He’s coming off a really bad start in which he got shelled by the Red Sox, but in fairness, that was the second time in a week he had to face that team. In the first, game he threw a masterpiece allowing just two hits, with zero earned runs and nine strikeouts in 7.2 innings. He was just at a major disadvantage having to face the same lineup again in such a short time frame, so I’m willing to throw that last start out. This game is looking a bit risky from a weather standpoint, so be sure to keep an eye out on that. He’s in play, though not my favorite option of the day. But if you’re looking to save some salary, you could do a lot worse.

The opposing team splits are really standing out

Clayton Richard, SD (@TEX) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $8.7K)

This is going to be my unpopular recommendation, so we’ll go ahead and call this one the wildcard for today. First, I’m breaking my own rule of avoiding pitchers in Texas in the middle of summer where it’s going to be 101 degrees at first pitch. What initially caught my attention is his price, which is $1K less on DraftKings than on FanDuel today.  I think we have some possible value on our hands with Richard today, so I’m going to make my argument and then you guys can make fun of me on chat if you don’t agree. When you attack Texas with pitching, it’s best to do so with a left-handed pitcher since they have so much left-handed power in their lineup. They have a solid, yet unspectacular, .161 ISO but a below average .317 wOBA and 96 wRC+ against lefties this season. They also strikeout 24% of the time, including multiple players with over a 30% strikeout rate (Chirinos: 33.3%, Mazara: 30.3%, Gallo: 44.6%, and Guzman: 31.7%). This should help boost Richard’s average 19.5% strikeout rate so far this season. Where my interest really starts to peak is when we look at the splits. He is dominant against left-handed batters. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I’d like at 21.9%, but he has a 2.67 xFIP and forces 75.4% groundballs while allowing just a .265 wOBA and 28.4% hard contact. Against righties, the xFIP increases to a still respectable 3.82 and the strikeout rate drops to 18.8%, but he still gets a very high 54.6% groundball rate while allowing just a .311 wOBA. The one red flag here is he’s giving up 42.4% hard contact. In the past month, he has a 69.7% groundball rate while forcing 22.5% soft contact and allowing an average distance of 170.3 feet. I get that it’s a hitter-friendly park and very hot today but does it matter if the Rangers are going to be forced into hitting soft grounders all night? I wouldn’t do this in cash but he’ll be very low owned in tournaments, as the Rangers implied total will certainly scare people off. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his last three starts. This will be a tough test to keep that streak going but I think he can pull it off today.  

The elite groundball and soft contact rates are hard to ignore

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

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  • Christian Villanueva, SD (vs. Mike Minor): I can’t help myself with Villanueva against lefties, his numbers just fly off the page. Today, he faces Mike Minor, who allows 46.4% fly balls and 12.2% HR/FBs with 43.6% hard contact. Villanueva has a .479 ISO and 44.4% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Minor throws his fastball 46.8% of the time while allowing a .286 ISO, his slider 21% of the time while allowing a .180 ISO, and his changeup 19.8% of the time while allowing a .259 ISO. Villanueva has a .529 ISO against fastballs, a .429 ISO against sliders, and .750 ISO against changeups this season.

  • John Ryan Murphy, ARI (vs. Wei-Yin Chen): This isn’t the best ballpark for home runs but this is still a really good matchup for Murphy. Chen allows 47.8% fly balls and 12.3% of those land in the seats, which has resulted in a 1.86 HR/9 against right-handed batters. He throws his fastball 56.8% of the time to righties and allows a .177 ISO while only getting 5.7% swinging strikes. Murphy is smashing left-handed pitching this season with a .327 ISO and 54.8% hard-hit rate. He has a .333 ISO, .569 xISO, and 87.1 mph aEV against fastballs this season.

  • Matt Olson, OAK (vs. Mike Fiers): Fiers allows 43.8% fly balls and a 17% HR/FB rate with 34.2% hard contact. This has resulted in a 2.13 HR/9 to left-handed batters, which is the worst mark on the slate today. He throws a mix of pitches including a fastball (39.3% of the time with a .212 ISO), changeup (20.7% of the time with a .250 ISO), slider (12.4% of the time with a .583 ISO), and a curveball (18% of the time and this is actually a fairly effective pitch he should probably throw more often). Olson has a .265 ISO and 53.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He destroys all of Fiers pitch types including a .407 ISO against fastballs, a .176 ISO (.255 xISO) against changeups, and a .261 ISO against sliders. Despite Fiers not giving up a lot of power with the curveball, I’m going to side with Olson on this one today and his .500 ISO (.468 xISO) against them this season.

  • Kyle Seager, SEA (vs. Alex Cobb): Cobb has pitched better recently but he’s still vulnerable to home runs, particularly against lefties. He has a 34.9% fly ball rate with 15.8% HR/FB while giving up 38.2% hard contact. He throws three pitches and none of them are very effective against lefties. He allows a .277 ISO on his fastball, a .217 ISO on his split-fingered fastball, and a .231 ISO on his knuckle curve. Seager, meanwhile, has a .212 ISO and 41.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Even better, Seager loves being away from Safeco Field as his ISO increases to .253 and the hard-hit rate increases to 43.9% when he’s on the road.

  • Max Muncy, LAD (vs. Kyle Hendricks): Hendricks continues to struggle with the long ball this season, especially against left-handed batters. He’s allowing 40% fly balls and a very uncharacteristic 16.3% HR/FB rate. Muncy is obliterating right-handed pitching this season with a .323 ISO, .407 wOBA, and 46.5% hard-hit rate. Hendricks gets away from his sinker against lefties, which is a less effective pitch for him than it is against righties. But this actually helps Muncy because now he’ll see more changeups and fastballs, which he hits very well. He has a .330 ISO against fastballs and a .233 ISO against changeups this season.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

  • The Cleveland stack is interesting today. I think Flaherty is going to be popular and I’m just not willing to go there myself. If you want to take a shot on a leverage play, you could stack the Indians and hope they get to Flaherty early. The Cardinals bullpen has a less than impressive 4.15 xFIP and 37.2% hard contact rate.

  • I wouldn’t use the Phillies against Cessa today. I was tempted and even spent some time looking at pitch types to find some home run potential. The problem is Cessa is a bullpen arm and will probably only get through this lineup twice before getting the hook. Then we’ll be dealing with the Yankees bullpen who is absolutely filthy right now. They have a 3.19 xFIP and 32.6% strikeout rate with a 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Phillies still have the highest strikeout rate on the board today and that won’t change after this game.

  • Further adding to the appeal of both the Oakland and Arizona stacks I highlighted above are the bullpens they will potentially face after they get through their respective starting opponent. Oakland will face a Detroit bullpen that has a 4.52 xFIP with only 20.6% strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. The Diamondbacks will face an equally bad Marlins bullpen with a 4.37 xFIP and 38.8% hard contact rate.

  • I had some interest initially in a Dodgers stack as a sneaky play against a struggling Kyle Hendricks, but I just don’t want to have to face the Cubs bullpen. They have a 3.95 xFIP with 24.3% strikeouts and a 47.4% groundball rate. You can do better than this today. 

I don't hate or love this slate. I feel pretty good about it overall. My biggest piece of advice for today is to fade the chalk in tournaments. On slates like this, where you could literally argue both sides of almost every single matchup, the best thing you can do is stay far away from the field. The chances of chalk hitting today are significantly decreased, so you want to find a spot that you like where nobody else is looking and stick with it. For example, I think Madison Bumgarner will carry a lot of ownership because he's going to be viewed as "safe". But I could easily see a scenario where the Rockies beat him up. I think Kyle Gibson is equally safe against the White Sox at a significant cost and ownership reduction.   

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!