Well, I guess we answered the question from yesterday. Verlander was definitely not worth the price tag. That’s baseball for you. The fly ball rate caught up with him a little last night against a lineup that has some power in it (though I obviously didn’t see the Curtis Granderson double-dong coming). If you had him on your team last night don’t kick yourself. It happens. He had the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and the only question about whether or not to use him was related to his cost and not his skills. Shake it off because we have a 14-game slate on our hands for today and there’s nothing left to do but move forward. Today is LOADED with top-tier pitching but a couple of options stand out a little more than I thought they would (at least in my opinion). As far as weather goes, we have quite a bit of warmer, hitter-friendly environments today. Baltimore (80 degrees), Philadelphia (80 degrees), Detroit (81 degrees), Atlanta (90 degrees), and Texas (98 degrees) are all hitter-friendly parks with very hot temperatures that should make the baseball fly. St.Louis is also looking at 85 degrees at first pitch, so that’s another spot you could look at despite the more-pitcher friendly park. As far as rain goes, Chicago looks like the biggest threat for a possible PPD today but it’s still way too early to tell. Atlanta has some rain in the forecast but it looks like it will hit later in the game or even after the game. As always this time of year, pop-up thunderstorms can come out of nowhere, so it’s really important you check the weather before lock.

Power Pitching

Luis Severino, NYY (@PHI) (DK: $13.1K, FD: $10.6K)

I had considered doing another game of “blind resume” since the top tier is so loaded for tonight’s slate, but two of these players stood out to me enough where I decided it wasn’t needed. The first is Severino, who takes on a Philadelphia team that I’ve been targeting with pitching now for weeks with a lot of success. For the second straight night, the Phillies have the highest strikeout rate on the board today at 26.3% against right-handed pitching, and the second lowest hard-hit rate (another team that we’ll get to in a minute stole that honor) at 30%. Yesterday, I wrote up Jonathan Loaisiga as a value option in this same matchup and he went on to throw 5.1 innings (wish he had gone longer) of one-hit baseball without allowing any runs and striking out eight. Now we get Severino, so you can basically take Loaisiga’s performance and multiply it by ten. Severino is 11-2 with a 2.24 ERA and a 3.02 SIERA. He has a 30% strikeout rate and a 12.7% swinging strike rate with an incredible 0.96 WHIP. Against lefties, he has a 2.79 xFIP with a 33.8% strikeout rate. His GB/FB ratio is average with only a 7.1% HR/FB and allowing just a .252 wOBA. The BABIP is right on the money at .291, so it’s safe to say these results look very sustainable. I know that Herrera is on fire right now but this is a very, very tough task for him. When facing righties, the xFIP remains solid at 3.04 with a 27.9% strikeout rate. The groundball rate increases slightly to 45.5% while only allowing a .240 wOBA and 30.4% hard contact rate. BABIP is .268, so a bit lower to this side of the plate but not enough to make me concerned about any regression coming his way. His statcast numbers over the past month are filthy. In four starts this month, he’s forcing 25% soft contact, just an 85.3 mph aEV resulting in only an average distance of 198.9 feet and 3 barreled balls. Severino is a -205 favorite tonight, and with his upside combined with the high strikeout rate and low hard-hit rate of his opponent tonight, I see very little reason why you wouldn’t want to pay his salary in both cash games and tournaments.

James Paxton, SEA (@BAL) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $9.6K)

Similar to Severino, Paxton is really standing out to me today because of the matchup. His talent and individual numbers are right up there with the likes of Kluber, Morton, etc. But, Paxton has the added advantage of facing a very weak Orioles team today. Despite being right-handed heavy, Baltimore has just a .137 ISO, .290 wOBA, and 81 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They strikeout 21.5% of the time, so not as much as Philadelphia, but they have the worst hard-hit rate on the slate today at just 29.7%. Paxton can make up the difference in strikeouts on his own anyway, as he has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher available today (not counting Freddy Peralta the sample size is too small) at 31.5% with a 13.2% swinging strike rate. We are mainly concerned with right-handed bats today as it wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Orioles have a complete lineup of only righties. It doesn’t matter though. Paxton has a 3.25 xFIP with a 31.4% strikeout rate. He does allow a high fly ball rate (45.8%) and above average hard contact (37.6%) to right-handed batters, but this Baltimore lineup is so weak that I’m not going to concern myself with that. The BABIP to righties is low at .243 and combine that with the xFIP that is a bit higher than the ERA and we’ve got a scenario where regression could come his way. But with the Baltimore lineup having under 30% hard-hits and just a .137 ISO, I don’t see a path to how they can beat Paxton today. If he does happen to face any lefties, his strikeout rate is nearly identical at 31.7% and the fly ball rate drops way down to 23.9%, while the ground ball rate goes way up to 45.7%. Go ahead Baltimore, add some lefties to the lineup. He’s a -140 favorite today, which actually seems a bit low to me, though it was -130 when I looked last night so it’s already starting to rise. Don’t make the mistake of shying away from him because of his last two starts. They were against the Red Sox and the Yankees. That’s just really bad luck to get two starts in a row against the best offenses in baseball. He has as much upside as anyone else on this slate and the matchup is simply too good to ignore. I love him for both cash games and tournaments today.

Value Pitching Options

Freddy Peralta, MIL (vs. KC) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $7.7K)

This is my wildcard of the day. Everything on paper today looks outstanding. Peralta has a 2.85 SIERA with a 41% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging strike rate. Obviously, the 41% strikeouts aren't sustainable but the 14.3% swinging strikes suggest he’ll still be a well above average strikeout pitcher. He’s facing a weak Kansas City lineup today whose only saving grace is their ability to always put the ball in play and only strikeout 18.9% of the time against right-handed pitching. But despite avoiding strikeouts, it doesn’t typically amount to much, as they have just a .124 ISO, .289 wOBA, and 80 wRC+. Best of all, they are traveling to a National League park today, so that weak lineup will get even worse when they have to replace the DH with the pitcher. Taking a look at the splits, Peralta has a 2.74 xFIP with 39.4% strikeouts while allowing just a .273 wOBA and an insane 13.3% hard contact rate. That hard contact rate will never stay that low, but the BABIP lefties have against him is at .286. So it may be fair to say he’ll allow below average hard-contact to left-handed batters, even if it doesn't stay as low as it is now. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.66 xFIP with 42.9% strikeouts. Now, I just listed off a bunch of extremely good numbers. With all of that said, we need to pump the brakes here quite a bit. I already see Peralta getting a bunch of love. There are quite a few red flags here that we need to consider. First and foremost, the sample size we have is very small. This will only be his fourth start and he’s yet to go more than six innings so we have only about 15 innings worth of major league data to look at. Second, there is regression coming in several places. He has a .077 BABIP against right-handed batters but is allowing 46.2% hard contact. So the fact that he’s yet to allow a home run to a righty or only has a .118 wOBA against him is never going to last. He also has a very high 13.1% walk rate including 15.2% to left-handed batters. There is a bunch of upside here, I completely agree with that. The swinging strikes are very encouraging but there are still plenty of question marks as well. With that said, this is an outstanding matchup today against a bad Kansas City lineup who will lose the DH. Vegas seems to agree, as Peralta is a heavy -215 favorite and the Royals have one of the lower implied run totals on the board today at just 3.07. While I may very well end up on him myself tonight, just don’t say I didn’t warn you if it doesn’t go according to plan.

Lance Lynn, MIN (@CWS) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8K)

Lynn could potentially be a really good value on DraftKings today. It feels like the price really hasn’t caught up to his recent production. In the month of June, he’s made four starts. He’s 2-1 with a 1.90 ERA. He has 23 strikeouts in 23.2 innings of work and has forced 53.3% groundballs. He has a 24% soft contact rate with just an 85.5 mph aEV and an average distance of only 199.5 feet during that same span. Pretty impressive right? His opponents make it even better as those four games were against the Indians, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox. I will say, the .220 BABIP and 4.24 xFIP suggest the success he’s having isn’t sustainable, so there’s still risk with using him. But I do like how his matchup lines up today and he’s cheap enough where I’m willing to take on that risk. He’s facing the Chicago White Sox who strikeout 25% of the time to right-handed pitching (fourth most on the slate) with a below average .156 ISO and a very poor .304 wOBA and 93 wRC+. Chicago checks in today with the third lowest hard-hit rate on the board at 30.6% behind the aforementioned Orioles and Phillies. As far as the splits go, Lynn has some issues with lefties (and by some I mean a lot), with a 5.10 xFIP and only 15.2% strikeouts and 16.7% walks. He allows a .359 wOBA and 40.9% hard contact rate. The only good thing about Lynn against lefties is his 60.2% groundball rate to help him limit the damage. Pay attention to the lineup that Chicago rolls out today. If they manage to go very left-handed heavy it may be in your best interest to pivot. If they go more right-handed heavy (or even have just a few weak left-handed bats in there) the reward may outweigh the risk as Lynn is fantastic against right-handed batters. He has a 3.88 xFIP with a 26.9% strikeout rate. He’s allowing 44.8% groundballs and just a .319 wOBA so far this season. This is an interesting one for sure. On the one hand, you have a player who has pitched very well recently against some very tough opponents but you know that the numbers suggest he might not be able to keep it up. His numbers against lefties are very concerning but he’s cheap enough where I still think you need to consider him even if he has to face a few. For me, it will really depend on what the lineup looks like today. Unless he gets a very righty friendly lineup today, I wouldn’t go here in cash but I think he’s firmly on your tournament radar.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

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• Asdrubal Cabrera (vs. Chad Kuhl): Kuhl’s struggles with lefties are well-documented, which makes this a very tough spot for him against the Mets. He’s allowing 19.6% HR/FB on 44% fly balls and 43.3% hard contact which has resulted in 2.14 HR/9 to left-handed batters. Cabrera has a .223 ISO and 44.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Kuhl throws his sinker (.298 ISO to LHB), fastball (.385 ISO to LHB), and slider (.212 ISO to LHB). Cabrera hits all these pitchers very well with a .241 ISO against fastballs, a .167 ISO (but .235 xISO) against sinkers and a .208 ISO against sliders.

• Ozzie Albies (vs. Matt Harvey): Harvey, like Kuhl, struggles with left-handed batters. He’s allowing 18.2 HR/FB on 42.3% fly balls with a 41.1% hard contact rate. This has led to 2.3 HR/9 allowed to lefties so far this season. Harvey throws his fastball (.513 ISO), four-seam fastball (.200 ISO), and a slider (which is actually an effective pitch he should probably use more). Albies has a .217 ISO and 33.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also has a .341 ISO against fastballs, a .310 ISO against four-seam fastballs, and a .450 ISO against sliders.

• Jesus Aguilar (vs. Jakob Junis): Junis takes a park downgrade today that could burn him with his high fly balls and hard contact. He’s giving up 22% HR/FB on 40.1% fly balls with a 40.3% hard contact rate versus right-handed batters. This is resulting in a massive 2.28 HR/9 which is the highest on today’s slate. He throws a fastball, sinker, and slider. Aguilar has a .296 ISO and 44.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He has a .364 ISO against the fastball and a .297 ISO against the slider. He’s weaker against the sinker but Junis only throws this about 18% of the time and Aguilar does have a .364 xwOBA and 91.7 mph aEV against that pitch. So there’s plenty of potential, even if he’s not connecting with them just yet.

• Mitch Haniger (vs. Kevin Gausman): Gausman is not a guy I’m going to go out of my way to pick on today. In fact, I think you could even make an argument to roster him as there isn’t one single person that I’m considering a “must-play” as far as value pitching goes. But, Haniger does have a ton of power against righties this season (.250 ISO and 40.7% hard-hit rate), he gets a nice park upgrade today, and he profiles well against Gausman. He only allows 27.4% fly balls but 25.6% of them go for a home run which has resulted in 2.02 HR/9 to right-handed batters so far this season. He’s also allowing a 37.3% hard contact rate. His three primary pitches are a fastball (.259 ISO), slider (.214 ISO), and split-fingered fastball (.180 ISO). Haniger has a .373 ISO against fastballs, a .237 ISO against sliders, and a .429 ISO with a massive 94.6 mph aEV against split-fingered fastballs so far this season.

• Enrique Hernandez (vs. Jon Lester): This game will go completely overlooked but I think there is some appeal on the Dodgers side. Lester is struggling with right-handed batters with a 4.60 xFIP, only 18.7% strikeouts and allowing 36.8% hard contact. Hernandez is heating up with three of his last four hits going for home runs. He has a .256 ISO against lefties this season and a .444 ISO in his career against Lester. He'll be under-priced and under-owned today.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• The Brewers didn't make my stacking list today as I have concerns about the health of Travis Shaw and Lorenzo Cain, but keep an eye on this lineup today. They have a very favorable matchup against Jakob Junis followed by the Royals bullpen which continues to fight with Colorado for worst in the league (except the Royals don't have to pitch in Coors Field).

• The Pirates are a sneaky stack today. Starling Marte is back and heating up and Osuna is still with the team at the moment. That gives them a couple of serious power bats against Steven Matz who is struggling with right-handed batters this season. Assuming the Pirates can get past Matz early enough, they'd face off with the Mets bullpen and their 4.51 xFIP and 1.41 WHIP.

• I know the Red Sox are tempting with their implied team total at home today, but they have been really bad against left-handed pitching this season and they are very expensive. Even if they do get through Lamb (which is certainly possible) the Angels bullpen has a respectable 3.75 SIERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate. I won't talk you off of Boston if you want to play them. They are in play on any given night as that offense can explode. Personally, I'm just not able to justify the cost today and I'm not buying into their implied team total.

• I had some interest, initially, in a Tigers stack against Frankie Montas, who literally can't strike anyone out. But I don't think we need to go there today on this big slate. Plus, the Athletics bullpen has been solid recently with a 3.53 ERA, 3.76 SIERA, and 12.4% swinging strikes.

This should be a good one. There are a ton of spots you can go for offense with so many average or worse pitchers on the hill below the top-tier. I wouldn't worry much, if at all, about ownership in tournaments today. Just pick your favorite spots and attack them. As far as the top tier pitching goes, I know I highlighted Severino and Paxton but that doesn't mean I don't like Kluber and Morton. If you have a different take than I do, I would never talk you off of either of those guys. It may be one of those slates where you just choose the guy who is looking like they'll be the lowest owned, and that becomes your highest owned player. Even Ross Stripling, to a lesser extent, as I don't love his matchup today, is in play with his numbers and in a good pitcher's park tonight at home. He'll go completely overlooked against the Cubs in the latest game of the night. As far as bats, I'm really liking the Twins right now. I'll need to see the lineup, but if they come out with six left-handed bats today, all with the hard-hit rates we talked about, I think I'll have heavy exposure. I'm not as big a tournament player as many of you, but when I find a spot like this that I really believe in, I'll typically enter a few and see how it plays out. I understand if you don't agree with me, as there is nothing exciting about stacking the Minnesota Twins but this really lines up well for them today.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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