A new week and a new set of slates for us to work with. Hope you all had a good weekend. We kick off the final week of June with ten-games on this Monday night. This is shaping up as an interesting slate, as I’m not totally aligned with Vegas in a number of areas. When I do my research, I make it a point to collect all the data and create an outline for how I plan to attack that slate (and write this article) before ever looking at player pricing or any Vegas lines. This way, I have a totally unbiased opinion and I’m simply focused on what the numbers are telling me. On the offensive side of things today, I like quite a few teams that are buried a bit lower on the list of implied run totals, which makes the tournament potential interesting today if everyone I like is going to be lower owned. The Rangers check in with the highest implied run total so far today at 5.16 but I actually think this is a tough spot for them. They are a left-handed heavy team taking on Joey Lucchesi who’s been really solid against left-handed batters this season. Now, I’m not saying go out and roster Lucchesi because he’s going to be pitching in Texas today in the 95-degree heat, so there’s simply too much risk there. But if Texas is going to be the chalk stack of the night, I will gladly fade for some of the other options with lower implied totals that I think are in great spots. We’ll see how this plays out as the day goes on. In the meantime, after a cooler weekend around the league, we’ve got some warmer, hitter-friendly environments today with games in Philadelphia (81 degrees), Atlanta (89 degrees), Texas (95 degrees), and St. Louis (86 degrees) all looking like potential spots to look for bats. St. Louis has the largest threat of rain at the moment, so we’ll have to watch that, and the wind impact is looking pretty minimal today. We’ve got one pitcher, Shelby Miller, making his season debut after a very long absence and another pitcher, Duane Underwood Jr, making his major league debut today. There’s a lot to talk about so let’s jump in and see how we can beat this slate tonight.

Power Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. TOR) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $11.7K)

We start things off with Verlander, who is a -240 favorite today at home taking on the Toronto Blue Jays. He has a 2.95 SIERA with 32% strikeouts and a 13.1% swinging strike rate. The Blue Jays can hit for power with a .185 ISO and 35.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. But, they strikeout nearly 24% of the time and they get a park downgrade today playing in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park in Houston. We’ll start with the lefties as this is where a lot of Toronto’s threats come from including Solarte, Smoak, and Granderson. Verlander has a 3.36 xFIP with a 34.6% strikeout rate and just a 0.73 WHIP. He allows only a .207 wOBA and 23.8% hard contact rate. Against righties, the numbers are fairly similar with a 3.64 xFIP and a slightly lower 29.9% strikeout rate. He only allows a .236 wOBA and 27.6% hard contact. The biggest concern with Verlander is his incredibly high fly ball rate at 56.4% to lefties and 56.6% to righties. But, because he does such a great job limiting hard contact, the fly balls are still only resulting in a 5.30 HR/FB rate to lefties and a 7.30 HR/FB rate to righties. So, while I definitely wouldn’t rule out a home run from the Blue Jays, they are clearly over-matched in this spot. Verlander is the heaviest favorite, he has the most strikeout upside of all the arms available today, and his opponent has the lowest implied team total at just 2.62. There should be enough value out there today for you to fit him in. He’s an excellent option for both cash games and tournament on this slate.

Mike Clevinger, CLE (@STL) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $9.8K)

This is a really good spot for Clevinger against a right-handed heavy Cardinals lineup today. He’s average, at best, against left-handed batters but he’s really solid against right-handed batters, which makes this matchup line up perfectly for him. St. Louis has a 23.4% strikeout rate with just a .151 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. My only concern with them is their 39.1% hard-hit rate. As far as splits go, we’ll start with the bad news. Clevinger has a 1.81 ERA but a 4.43 xFIP against left-handed batters, so there is absolutely some regression on the way. His strikeouts drop to 19.6% and the walks rise to 10.3%. He hasn’t given up many home runs yet, along with just a 29.9% hard contact rate, but I’d expect those numbers to get worse as his ERA and xFIP become more aligned. With that said, he’s likely only going to face two left-handed batters, which makes me okay with overlooking the possible regression. What we really care about is how he does against right-handed batters. He has a 3.42 xFIP (lower than his ERA) with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a walk rate that drops to 6.1%. The GB/FB ratio is average and he’s only allowing a .285 wOBA to go with 33.6% hard contact. In addition to today’s matchup being so good for him, Clevinger has been outstanding recently, coming off two consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts and only allowing one earned run in each of those games. Both of those starts were against the White Sox, who like his opponent today, are also a right-handed heavy lineup. In the last month, Clevinger has forced 21.5% soft contact while allowing an 86 mph aEV and only two barreled balls. He makes for a fine pivot today off of Verlander in both cash games and tournaments if you’re looking to save a little salary.

Value Pitching Options

Jonathan Loaisiga, NYY (@PHI) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.4K)

You can make a case for Loaisiga today. I’ll be honest, I don’t love it, especially after watching him labor through 3.2 innings in his last start and needing 84 pitchers to get there. But that was a tough challenge against a very dangerous Seattle team, and he still flashed his strikeout upside with four strikeouts in less than four innings. He gets a better matchup this time around against the Phillies who have the highest strikeout rate (26.5%) and the lowest hard-hit rate (29.6%) on the slate today. It’s a very small sample size at this point, but Loaisiga is managing a 26.3% strikeout rate with 12% swinging strikes and forcing 54.5% groundballs. His SIERA (4.36) is over a run higher than his ERA (3.12) which suggests some incoming regression, but he also has an incredibly high .409 BABIP. So for now, given how little data we have, I’m going to let those two things cancel each other out. Looking at splits, he has a very high ERA but also an extremely high BABIP and a very low xFIP, so he’s clearly pitching better than what the ERA indicates against lefties. He has a 40% strikeout rate and a 66.7% groundball rate. Neither of those numbers is sustainable but they at least show us he has the strikeout upside and the ability to force groundballs, even if not at such an extreme level. Interestingly enough, against righties, the strikeout rate comes all the way down to 17.4%. He’s still forcing 50% groundballs and has yet to give up a home run in either of his starts. Bottom line, the sample here is still very small. But if we combine his first two major league starts with his minor league numbers, we see a high strikeout, high groundball pitcher with some command and control issues given his walk rates. In his first start against Tampa Bay, he was respectable, going five innings, scattering three hits without giving up an earned run and striking out six. I think today’s matchup has a similar profile to that one, which gives him a path toward a solid return on investment. There is plenty of risk here, so this is a tournament only recommendation, but you could do a lot worse today in this price range.

Seth Lugo, NYM (vs. PIT) (DK: $7.1K, FD: $5.9K)

If I decide to pay down at all today, this is likely where I’m headed. Lugo’s sample size has grown to the point where I’m beginning to have confidence in his numbers and he continues to impress. He has a 2.93 SIERA with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 10.4% swinging strikes. He takes on a Pirates lineup today that strikes out less than I’d like (19.3%) for a team I plan to target with a pitcher, but I think Lugo has the upside to overcome this. The good news is, Pittsburgh only has a .154 ISO, .310 wOBA, and 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The splits are fantastic, with very few weak points to speak of. Against lefties, Lugo has a 3.25 xFIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate and a 45.2% groundball rate. At the moment, he’s only allowing a .224 wOBA but the BABIP is low at just .213, so I’d expect that to increase. But it would still need to rise pretty significantly before I had any concerns. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.86 xFIP with a similar 27.4% strikeout rate and 46.2% groundballs. Here, he’s allowing a .296 wOBA but the BABIP is actually high at .329 and he’s allowing below average 27.5% hard contact. The only red flag I can pull out of this data is his 1.29 HR/9 and 15.4% HR/FB rate on 33.3% fly balls, which means he’s a bit vulnerable to the long ball against righties. But most of the Pirates' power comes from its left-handed batters and he’s in a very pitcher-friendly park today to help with this. In the past month, he’s forced 23.3% soft contact while allowing just an 86.8 mph aEV and this includes one start where he got shelled while pitching in Coors Field. He’s firmly in play for tournaments and strongly in consideration as an SP2 for cash games on DraftKings.

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• Francisco Lindor, CLE (vs. John Gant): We are dealing with a small sample size on Gant but what’s standing out to me is the massive 64.4% hard contact rate he’s allowing to left-handed batters. So far, miraculously, that hasn’t resulted in a lot of home runs allowed but I don’t think he’ll be able to hold off on that much longer. Lindor has a .273 ISO and 41.7% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. He also profiles well against Gant’s pitches. He throws his fastball 55% of the time and his changeup about 30% of the time to left-handed batters. This is bad news against Lindor who has a .356 ISO against fastballs and a .385 ISO against changeups this season.

• David Peralta, ARI (vs. Dan Straily): This is a very bad matchup for Straily, which we’ll talk more about in the stacking section, but for now, we can just focus on Peralta. Straily allows 18.2% HR/FB on 31% fly balls with a 1.46 HR/9 and a ridiculous 48.7% hard-hit rate against left-handed batters. Peralta has been on a tear recently, especially against right-handed pitching, with a .254 ISO and a 52.3% hard-hit rate. Straily throws a fastball 57% of the time, a changeup 23.6% of the time, and a slider 19% of the time to left-handed pitching. Peralta crushes both the fastballs (.260 ISO) and the sliders (.355 ISO). He’s average against the changeup with a .172 ISO. Good enough for me given all the other positive numbers.

• Freddie Freeman, ATL (vs. Tyler Mahle): Mahle is one of my favorite pitchers to target for home runs, especially with left-handed bats. He allows huge numbers including a 24.4% HR/FB on 44.6% fly balls and a 47.7% hard contact rate. All of this adds up to a 2.65 HR/9 rate against lefties. Freeman will bring his .212 ISO and 47.3% hard-hit rate to the plate against him tonight. Mahle throws his fastball, for some reason, 70% of the time to left-handed batters and allows a .280 ISO. Freeman has a .288 ISO (.415 xISO) and an 89.2 mph aEV against fastballs this season.

• Christian Villanueva, SDP (vs. Cole Hamels): Villanueva gets a nice park upgrade today against a bad left-handed pitcher. He’s probably had this game circled on his calendar for a while. Hamels is allowing 21.5% HR/FB on a 37.8% fly ball rate with a 47.6% hard contact rate to right-handed batters. This has resulted in 1.95 HR/9. Villanueva’s numbers continue to be absurd against left-handed pitching with a .515 ISO, 231 wRC+, and a 46.5% hard-hit rate. It's going to be 95-degrees in Texas today.

• Adrian Beltre, TEX (vs. Joey Lucchesi): Lucchesi has been fairly impressive in terms of strikeout upside in his young career but he’s struggled with the long ball against right-handed batters, and he won’t get any help with such a massive park downgrade today. Beltre’s numbers are down this season, with only a .100 ISO, but it’s still a very small sample size and he does have a 42.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. I’m willing to give Beltre a pass on his current season numbers and focus on the larger picture. He has a .218 ISO and 35.3% hard-hit rate in his career against lefties.

• Teoscar Hernandez, TOR (vs. Justin Verlander): If you’re looking for some leverage in a large field GPP where Verlander will likely carry significant ownership, I think Hernandez makes sense as a one-off. I would never stack against Verlander, but we talked about the extreme fly ball rate he allows and this is a player who could exploit that and potentially get a long ball today. He has a .253 ISO and 40% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• If you want to try and be sneaky today and stack the Marlins against Shelby Miller (making his first start in the majors in over a year) I don’t blame you. I have no interest in Miller either. But just know the risk is increased quite a bit here. For starters, the Marlins are coming back from a series in Coors Field that they wrapped up yesterday. Secondly, even if they do get by Miller, they’d get a tough challenge from the Arizona bullpen who currently has a 3.94 xFIP and 51.1% groundball rate.

• I have some sneaky interest in the Mets stack today for large field GPPs if they role out a very left-handed heavy lineup (which is likely). Taillon struggles quite a bit with left-handed bats and this is a spot where it wouldn’t shock me if he got into trouble. This means the Mets would then get some shots against a Pirates bullpen that has a 35% fly ball rate and an above average 10.9% HR/FB rate. They aren’t the worst bullpen but they definitely aren’t the best either.

• The Reds are an interesting tournament stack. Mike Foltynewicz is a good pitcher but he’s struggled with lefties in the past. This is also his first start off of the disabled list so we have no idea if he’s 100% yet or how many pitches they are planning to let him throw today. This could mean some increased opportunity against the Braves bullpen, which is mediocre at best including a 4.06 xFIP, 11.1% walk rate, and 34.4% hard contact allowed.

• Another reason I’m a bit skeptical of the high implied total for the Rangers today is even if they get past Lucchesi, the Padres bullpen is no walk in the park. San Diego’s relievers have a 3.64 xFIP with 24.9% strikeouts and just a 1.18 WHIP this season.

The biggest debate for me right now is whether or not Verlander’s price tag is worth it on DraftKings. There’s something about paying over $13K for a pitcher that just never sits right with me. Toronto has some capable bats in their lineup that could exploit Verlander’s high fly ball rate and very quickly make you regret pouring so much of your salary on him. I’m not saying don’t do it, I’m just saying I’m thinking about it more than I normally would for a guy of Verlander’s caliber. I like the spot for Clevinger enough that I’m considering a pivot and taking the salary even in cash games. Seth Lugo is far and away my favorite cheap option. The ceiling is a little lower than we’d like for tournaments but I still think he has enough upside to overcome the Pirates’ low strikeout rate. There are several stacks that I like today. Seattle is at the top of that list with a matchup against Cashner and, eventually, the Orioles bullpen in a hitter-friendly park. I also have a ton of interest in the Dodgers if they are going to be under-owned against a rookie pitcher. I still can’t figure out why their total is so low and if I’m missing something here, but all signs point to Underwood being a below average pitcher at best and the Dodgers have a ton of guys who hit right-handers very hard. They are also more affordable than some of the other teams on that list, especially on FanDuel.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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