Happy Friday everyone! Hope you’ve all had a good week and are ready for the weekend as much as I am. We’ve got a 14-game slate on top for us tonight and I think there’s a good mix of everything for us to work with today. There’s not an “elite” SP on the table but there are plenty of good options at different price points spread throughout the mid-tier. There are plenty of spots for offense, with ten teams having an implied run total of 4.5 runs or better right now. It’s a Coors slate and we have a bad lefty on the mound against the Rockies so Colorado is far and away the best bats available. Though, I do think there are several good pivot options for your tournaments and we’ll talk about those soon. Something to note, the Oakland and Chicago game that was rained out yesterday is part of a double-header today, but it isn’t on either main slate. Unfortunately, that means we don’t get to stack against Lucas Giolito today like I had planned on but what can you do. As far as weather is concerned, it is cool around the league for mid-June. There are only two games on this whole slate expected to be above 80 degrees and one of them is in Colorado (as if they needed more help being the top offenses on the board today). Everywhere else, we are looking at low 70's and even in the 60's in a few spots in the eastern part of the country. Cincinnati is the only spot that looks like rain could pose a threat at the moment, but we know that could change. Winds are fairly light for the most part, with the largest impacts happening in Pittsburgh and Washington where it’s going to be blowing in around 10 mph in both parks. Each of those games are in the 60's with winds blowing in, so keep that in mind for pitcher and hitter decisions. Alright, enough with the introduction, let’s see what we’ve got in store for our rosters today!

Power Pitching

Patrick Corbin, ARI (@PIT) (DK: $11.6K, FD: $9.2K)

I’ll start off by saying I don’t think you need to go here today, especially on DraftKings where he’s incredibly expensive. But because of the price, he should be lower owned and he does check off a lot of boxes. He has a very impressive 2.96 SIERA with 31.4% strikeouts and 13.8% swinging strikes. Against left-handed bats, he has a 3.01 xFIP with 30% strikeouts while forcing 50% ground balls. Against right-handed batters, he’s got a better 2.71 xFIP with 31.7% strikeouts and still keeps the ball on the ground 44.4% of the time. The red flag for Corbin is the hard-contact rate which is, admittedly, concerning. He’s allowing 42.6% to left-handed batters and 42.5% to right-handed batters. He’ll get a little help with that today as the pitching conditions are going to be ideal in Pittsburgh. First, PNC Park is pitcher friendly. Second, it’s going to be cool during the game today at around 69 degrees at first pitch and the wind is forecasted to be blowing in directly from center field between 10 and 11 mph. Pittsburgh does have some power against right-handed pitching with a .171 ISO but they only bring a 28.9% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching so far this season. They don’t strikeout a lot (20.5% to left-handed pitching) but Corbin has the upside to overcome that. He’s a slight -115 favorite coming off of a couple of bad starts and I like his chances to bounce back today. Like I said, I don’t think you need him today, but I certainly wouldn’t talk you off of him if this is where you wanted to go. 

Sean Newcomb, ATL (vs. BAL) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $8.9K)

I love this spot for Newcomb today. He’s a reverse splits pitcher taking on a right-handed heavy Orioles team that is very weak against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has a 21.9% strikeout rate, with just a .141 ISO, .295 wOBA, and 84 wRC+ against lefties this season. They also have a 28.8% hard-hit rate, slightly below the Pirates against Corbin, which is the lowest on the board today. We’ll start with Newcomb against lefties, where he’s not as solid, but he’ll likely only see two or maybe as few as one in the lineup today. He has a 4.15 xFIP with 14% walks and 41.2% hard contact. Ouch. He does have a 26.3% strikeout rate with 50% groundballs and only a .307 wOBA allowed but the BABIP is incredibly low at .161 so I would absolutely expect the wOBA to increase over time. But, I’m not concerned about the regression here with the lack of lefties he’ll face. Against right-handed bats, he’s outstanding with a 3.78 xFIP, 24.5% strikeout rate and still forcing 50% groundballs. He only allows a .259 wOBA and 26.3% hard contact rate and the BABIP here is much closer to the average at .277 so only some slight regression could be on its way. The downside to righties is the walks at 10.4%. That’s really his biggest issue overall. With the Orioles only walking 8.1% of the time to left-handed pitching though, I’m really not going to let that worry me. Looking at the Statcast numbers, he’s got a 23.9% soft contact rate with just an 87 mph aEV and an average distance of 185.8 feet over the past month. He’s a very heavy -200 favorite today and my second favorite pitcher on the board for this slate. 

Value Pitching Options

Alex Wood, LAD (@NYM) (DK: $9.1K, FD: $7.4K)

You read that right. Newcomb is my second favorite pitcher available today because Alex Wood is my favorite. He’s a lock for me on FanDuel at his very reduced price tag which should make it easy to get exposure to Coors Field tonight. The Mets are horrendous against left-handed pitching this season striking out 25.9% of the time and having just a .114 ISO, .274 wOBA, and 73 wRC+. To be honest, those numbers may even be a bit inflated as they had one successful game against lefty Tyler Anderson recently while they were at Coors Field. But I’m throwing that out the window here and so should you. Wood is dominant against left-handed batters. He has yet to walk or give up a single home run to any lefty this season. If that’s not convincing enough, he also has a 2.22 xFIP with 23.6% strikeouts. He gets 50.9% groundballs while allowing just a .260 wOBA and 29.1% hard contact rate. Oh, and he’s doing all this despite a very high .345 BABIP against him. He’s worse against righties but still above average and definitely not something we need to be worried about. The ERA is a little rough at 5.11 but his xFIP suggests he’s pitching much better than that at 3.84. The strikeout rate is solid at 21.3% and he’s still getting 44.6% groundballs while allowing just a .299 wOBA. He does give up 41% hard contact to righties so perhaps Todd Frazier or Wilmer Flores knock one deep today but, again, that’s just not enough for me to not use him tonight. He’s a -150 favorite and in a pitcher-friendly park today. I’ll have heavy exposure tonight.

Shane Bieber, CLE (vs. DET) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $6.6K)

I think Bieber is still in play on DraftKings but it’s a much tougher sell at his increased price tag. I love him for tournaments on FanDuel tonight where he is $2.1K cheaper and facing a very right-handed heavy Detroit lineup. The major league sample size with him is very small but his minor league numbers back up some of the success he’s had so far. In ten starts this season between Double-A and Triple-A he’s 5-1 with a 1.10 ERA in 65 innings. He has 61 strikeouts to only 3 walks. In the majors, so far, he has a 25.5% strikeout rate to just a 3.9% walk rate. His SIERA is excellent at 3.20 and he’s getting 47.2% groundballs. He’s struggling a bit with lefties so far but he should have a ton of positive regression coming his way. He has a 4.92 xFIP with a 2.68 WHIP while allowing a .536 wOBA and 57.7% hard contact. Scary right? Remember, it’s a very small sample size (only three games) and the BABIP is ridiculous at .542. Plus, he’ll only face a couple of lefties today anyway. I’m not worried about this. He is AWESOME against right-handed batters with a 1.02 xFIP, 37.5% strikeout rate and he’s yet to walk a single right-handed batter. He has a 70% groundball rate while allowing just a .165 wOBA and the BABIP is right on the money at .300 so these numbers, at least early on, are looking somewhat sustainable (I need a larger sample size but it’s definitely a very positive start to his career). Terry Francona recently compared him to Corey Kluber and, while I obviously think it’s way too early for stuff like that, it tells you all you need to know about how they feel about this kid. He’s a very comfortable -200 favorite tonight and I’m looking forward to watching this game and seeing him pitch again.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• The Rockies have recently taken over as the worst bullpen in baseball (though their numbers are a bit inflated because of their home park). Either way, as we talked about in the stack section, you have to love the Miami bats tonight even if they don't look as appealing on paper.

• I think Shane Bieber gets some ownership tonight, but despite his promising start, he's still a 22-year-old rookie.  If you wanted to be truly sneaky tonight you could roster some Tigers bats and hope they get to Bieber early, which would then bring in the Indians bullpen who has a 4.20 xFIP, 15.7% HR/FB rate, and 35.9% hard contact rate.  

• I won't touch a single Pirates bat tonight for any reason. Tough matchup against Patrick Corbin. Tough matchup against the Diamondbacks bullpen. Perfect pitching weather in a pitcher-friendly park.

• After the Rockies have finished off Wei-Yen Chen (I'm setting the O/U at 3 innings) we'll get some shots at the Marlins bullpen and their 4.36 xFIP and 38.9% hard contact rate.  

This is a really fun slate. I'm pretty sold on Newcomb, Wood, and Bieber as my heaviest owned arms today. The spots are just too good and the prices are reasonable (Bieber is a little high but it's a perfect matchup for him).  Miami is my favorite stack tonight because I think they will get less ownership than they should and they are not priced through the roof like teams usually are at Coors. Houston is a great pivot from Colorado against Danny Duffy and, eventually, the Royals bullpen. Texas is a really sneaky option with all that left-handed power. There are a lot of ways to go tonight, which should make it really fun for both cash games and tournaments to see where everyone lands. Best of luck in your contests today and over the weekend. I'll see you guys back here on Monday!

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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