Tonight's game between Oakland and Chicago has been postponed due to weather.  Make sure you don't roster anyone from those games!

Coors Field rules all. I saw a lot of chatter about Seth Lugo yesterday and I agreed his numbers were very solid. I even mentioned in the article that I would have had a lot of interest if the game wasn’t in Colorado. But, even when value pitching is as bad as it was last night, you can’t get sucked into a player’s numbers when he’s pitching at Coors. Even Tyler Anderson in the first game of that series got a lot of love because of the lefty vs lefty matchups and that didn’t work out either. If they aren’t named Scherzer, deGrom, or someone of that caliber then don’t play them at Coors. As far as today goes, we’ll focus on the seven-game (now six-game) main slate. This is an interesting slate for sure. Scherzer is head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of price and upside but value pitching is a little tricky today, which might make it difficult to fit him in. On the plus side, Coors is not on this slate, so we might be able to go hunting for some more value bats in this spot. Roster construction will be interesting. I have one idea I’m strongly considering to help fit in Scherzer and I’ll get to that in a minute. We have one rain threat already decided, which makes things a little easier.  Cincinnati looks like the rain will be early on in the game and cause a delayed start but should clear up. You’ll need to keep an eye on this before lock, so make sure you leave yourself enough time. It’s Thursday, the weekend is almost here, our golf lineups are locked and running, let’s win this baseball slate tonight.

Power Pitching

Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. BAL) (DK: $14.5K, FD: $12.2K)

It’s not a question of whether or not you want to roster Scherzer. It’s a question of whether or not you can afford him today. He is a well-deserved $14.5K in this spot on DraftKings (he’s more affordable on FanDuel at $12.2K and should be 100% owned in cash). Baltimore is a very right-handed heavy, struggling offense that doesn’t have a snowball's chance in hell of getting anything done against Mad Max today. He has a 1.65 xFIP, 45% strikeout rate, and 0.71 WHIP against right-handed batters. He has an average GB/FB rate with only a 3% HR/FB and allows just a .196 wOBA. Ridiculous. I’m sure the Orioles will make an attempt to throw in a few extra left-handed bats today but they are all incredibly weak, headlined by Chris Davis. Even if they do, Scherzer has a 3.20 xFIP with 33.8% strikeouts while allowing just a .274 wOBA. He can be exploited via fly balls to lefties (52.1%) but even then he only allows 28.2% hard contact. Plus, none of the lefties on the Orioles have the talent to do anything with that “weakness”. The last time he faced Baltimore, he had 12 strikeouts while only allowing two hits and one earned run. He’s a massive -300 today and we’ll need to figure out how to make him fit.  

Tyler Skaggs, LAA (vs. TOR) (DK: $10.7K, FD: $9K)

Skaggs is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. Nobody puts him in that “elite” category even though he’s very close to it and because of that, he usually goes under the radar. He has a 3.51 xFIP with 25.9% strikeouts and 11.2% swinging strikes. He’ll get a matchup today with Toronto which isn’t ideal but is certainly winnable. They have some solid power with a team .178 ISO. Their wOBA (.302) and wRC+ (89) are both below average but their BABIP at .254 suggests they are hitting the ball a little better than what meets the eye. Even with some potential positive regression on the way, this is a tough challenge for the Toronto bats. Skaggs is excellent against lefties with a 2.76 xFIP, 30.2% strikeout rate and only 2.3% walk rate. He forces 50.9% groundballs while allowing just a .204 wOBA. BABIP is low (.214) so I’d expect the wOBA allowed to increase, but Skaggs will still be well above average against left-handed batters even when that happens. He’s solid against right-handed bats as well, which is what would make me nervous in this Toronto lineup (Hernandez comes to mind). He has a 3.79 xFIP with 24.4% strikeouts and 46.3% groundballs. He allows an average .331 wOBA here but the BABIP to righties is very high at .348, so I would expect the wOBA to decrease over time. In the end, as regression hits in both directions, we wind up with a maybe not elite, but well above average pitcher, with excellent control and a lot of strikeout upside. He’s a significant discount off of Scherzer today. My issue is, I don’t think he stands a chance of keeping up with him in terms of upside, which makes him a tough sell for me as a pivot. But, he will allow you to fit in a lot more bats so you’re just going to have to weigh those two choices and make a decision.  

Value Pitching Options

Zach Godley, ARI (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.9K)

There are a couple of guys I like for value pitchers today but they are both more “floor” options and don’t really have the ceiling you would want for an SP2 in tournaments. We’ll start with Godley. His numbers don’t jump off the page but they are fine and he gets a matchup with Pittsburgh who isn’t very intimidating. Austin Meadows has really slowed down after a hot start and Corey Dickerson was placed on emergency leave for a family issue (hopefully everything is okay). Those are the two of the biggest bats the Pirates have against right-handed pitching right there. The problem with the Pirates is they don’t strikeout a lot (19.2% against right-handed pitching) and Godley is not a high strikeout pitcher (22.5%) which is what lowers the ceiling. What raises his floor is his ability to force groundballs. Against lefties, he has a 4.26 xFIP with 21.1% strikeout rate and a 60.4% groundball rate. He does have a high HR/FB rate but since his groundball rate is so high, I’m willing to roll the dice on that (this is a pitcher’s park, which helps). Against righties, he has a 3.95 xFIP, with a higher 24% strikeout rate. But, the groundball rate drops to 42.6% and he’s allowing 40% hard contact. He’s coming off two very strong outings, including a game at Coors Field where he had eight strikeouts and only surrendered two earned runs. I like him to keep that momentum going today. 

Aaron Sanchez, TOR (vs. LAA) (DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.7K)

Here is my wildcard that I think will be enough to help us fit in Scherzer and at least some reasonable batters. This is another more “floor” based play as Sanchez only has an 18.8% strikeout rate and he’s facing an Angels team that strikes out only 19.6% of the time to right-handed pitching. We’ll start with the bad news. He’s AWFUL against left-handed batters. He has a 6.04 xFIP with a 15.8% strikeout rate and a 17% walk rate. You read that correctly. On the plus side, he’s allowing 52.3% groundballs, only .84 HR/9, and an average 30% hard contact rate. My argument for Sanchez today will be completely based on the lineup the Angels roll out. They are typically a very right-handed heavy team with the possibility of having as many as seven right-handed bats. Sanchez is significantly better here with a respectable 4.07 xFIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, and only 8.6% walks. He forces 49.2% groundballs and only allows a .273 wOBA. He gets a park upgrade today, pitching in LA and he’s averaging 20.5% more fantasy points on the road than at home this season. I wouldn’t call it safe, but if the Angels load up on right-handed bats I think the value is there for his price today. He should be cheap enough where you can have Scherzer and at least fit in a few bats you feel really confident in.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• Furthering my love for the Diamondbacks today is that Pittsburgh is one of the worst bullpens on the slate. They are still middle of the pack overall, but without the Royals or Indians playing today, this is one of the better bullpens for us to attack.

• Kevin Gausman's numbers are pretty solid. I can't bring myself to roster him today in a tough matchup with the Nationals, but I'm not going out of my way to stack against him either. But if you wanted to, (they do have a high implied run total) you should feel good knowing that if they get to him, they'll get some shots at a poor Baltimore bullpen. 

• My concern about the Reds stack is potentially facing the Cubs bullpen. They are probably the lowest priority of the stacks I mentioned.   

I will use every option at my disposal to fit in Scherzer today. He’s the clear-cut SP1 but I understand the need to be at least somewhat comfortable with your bats as well. I think Aaron Sanchez might be that ticket if we get a right-handed heavy lineup from the Angels. We’ll have to wait and see what happens there. Skaggs is a great option as well, although it’s a tougher matchup, so he’s a tournament only play. I didn’t mention Bumgarner but he is in a great spot against San Diego. In his first three starts since coming off the disabled list, he’s only had three strikeouts in each game, so I’m really concerned about his ceiling. He’ll get a boost against the San Diego lineup today and it’s a great ballpark for pitching, but for me personally, I need to see something from him before I roster him. But if you wanted to go Skaggs and Bumgarner together in tournaments, I wouldn’t talk you out of it. As far as bats, plenty of good spots today. I love Arizona against Chad Kuhl as they could potentially role out seven left-handed batters plus Goldschmidt. Chicago is also in a great spot against Matt Harvey in a small ballpark with potentially hot and humid weather. 

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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