We've got two seven-game slates to cover today (five-game early slate on FanDuel) so let's not waste anytime. The early slate looks fairly clear as far as weather is concerned. It's hot in Cincinnati and Philadelphia, which is where I want to go for bats on this slate. Very little wind to speak of including Wrigley where it looks fairly neutral and even blowing in a bit at times. The main-slate is uglier. We have rain threats in all the east coast games including Pittsburgh, Washington, and New York. It's hot in Washington, Minnesota, and Kansas City. The winds shouldn't play a factor anywhere. This is another Coors slate, as the Mets and Rockies wrap up their three-game series today. Value pitching is a problem on the main slate which makes fitting in Coors bats a bit of a problem. Let's get to work and see what we can figure out for today.  

Early Slate Pitching

Corey Kluber, CLE (vs. CWS) (DK: $12.6K, FD: $12.1K)

Kluber is far and away your top option (only option?) on the early slate today. He got roughed up a bit his last time out against Minnesota but I expect him to fully shake that off and go back to his usual ways today against the White Sox. Kluber has a 2.87 SIERA with 26.9% strikeouts and only 2.8% walks. He’ll be facing a Chicago team today that strikes out 25% of the time to right-handed pitching and has just a team .158 ISO, .306 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. He’s solid to both sides of the plate with a 2.66 xFIP, 28.3% strikeout rate, and 44.4% groundball rate while only allowing a .243 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.74 xFIP with 25.7% strikeouts while forcing 51.7% groundballs and allowing just a .246 wOBA. BABIP is low, at .222 against lefties and .255 against righties. We may have seen a bit of that regression happening against the Twins in his last start. He also allows a lot of hard contact, but that’s often the case with hard-throwing pitchers like him. I’m not worried about the regression, he’s an elite pitcher and even if his numbers drop, he’s still well above average relative to the rest of the league. He’s a massive -300 favorite today and the White Sox are only batting .220 against him in a 90 at-bat sample size. He’s chalk on the early slate, the best cash game option, and has the highest upside for tournaments as well.

Joey Lucchesi, SD (vs. OAK) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8K)

I’m really pushing my luck with this one. I’m going to continue my experiment about lefties against Oakland. It worked out very well last night with Lauer going six innings and allowing just three hits, one run (zero earned) and having seven strikeouts. Theoretically, if we liked Lauer yesterday and he had those results, then we should love Lucchesi today, right? He’s more talented and has higher upside. This is true but it’s not that simple. What I really liked about Lauer yesterday was how cheap he was, so even in the event that he didn’t have a good game the risk was fairly low that he wouldn’t destroy your lineup. Today, Lucchesi is significantly more expensive, and if he does happen to get blown up, it’s going to be very hard for your lineup to recover. But, with that said, I think we have to roll the dice here. There is very little that I like for pitching on this early slate and Lucchesi presents us with the best chance. His numbers are impressive with a 3.72 SIERA and 24.9% strikeout rate. He’s outstanding against lefties, with a 1.92 xFIP, 29.3% strikeout rate and an incredible 65.4% groundball rate. He’s only allowing a .252 wOBA and 23.1% hard contact rate. Plus, the BABIP is high at .346, which tells us these numbers are for real and could potentially improve in the long run. Things are a bit more concerning, though still not bad, against right-handed batters. His xFIP and strikeout rate are still good at 3.73 and 24.1% respectively. Home runs are an issue with his 23.6% HR/FB, 2.44 HR/9, and 41.1% hard contact rate allowed. But, remember, this is in Petco Park, which is a downgrade for Oakland and more importantly, Oakland loses a DH in this spot. So, while Khris Davis is still very scary (and maybe Chad Pinder) who else are we really that worried about? All the logic we talked about with Lauer still applies today with the downside being that the risk is increased because of the price tag. Also, I haven’t been able to find anything about Lucchesi being on a pitch count today but I would definitely keep your eyes and ears open about that. If it turns out he’s going to be limited, then you’ll need to pivot elsewhere.  

Main Slate Pitching

Charlie Morton, HOU (vs. TB) (DK: $12.2K, FD: $10K)

These Rays bats are doing just enough to annoy you when rostering the elite Astros arms against them this week. Verlander may not have got the win last night but he still had double-digit strikeouts and only gave up one run. Today, Morton will get his turn in the rubber match of a series that has been surprisingly very competitive. Morton has a 3.26 SIERA that’s just slightly above his 2.94 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate, 12.3% swinging strikes and forcing 51.3% groundballs. He has a massive 38.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.77 xFIP, 44.6% groundballs and just a .285 wOBA against left-handed batters. He does allow a 17.2% HR/FB with 42.4% hard contact to lefties but it’s likely he only sees three in this Rays lineup (Bauers, Adames, and Smith). Against right-handed batters, the strikeout rate comes down to a still respectable 22.4% and the xFIP goes up almost a run to 3.58. But, he has a 56.3% groundball rate and he does a fantastic job limiting hard contact at 29.5% while allowing a .299 wOBA. He should be able to take care of business today in this matchup with plenty of strikeout upside and the one risk being a possible home run to a left-handed bat. Nothing to be concerned with. He’s a -260 favorite, at home (where he averages 34.3% more fantasy points) and in a very pitcher-friendly park. He’s my favorite option on the main-slate for cash games and I think he’s firmly in consideration for tournaments (though, unlike the early slate, I do see some solid pivot options on the main slate).  

Chad Kuhl, PIT (vs. MIL) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.4K)

Value pitching is really ugly on this slate today so we are going to have to take some risks, especially if we want to fit in some Coors bats. I think you can seriously consider Kuhl in this spot. He’s an average strikeout pitcher at 22.1% and he should get a little help today against a Milwaukee team that strikes out nearly 25% of the time to right-handed pitching. My one concern with him, and it’s a pretty big one, is how bad he is against left-handed hitters. He has a 4.52 xFIP and allows 43.9% fly balls, a 17% HR/FB, and 41.4% hard contact. But, we might catch a break if Travis Shaw misses this game (he’s currently listed as day to day). That would take a major left-handed threat out of the equation and leave us with Thames, Yelich, and Villar. Thames is scary but Yelich is a groundball hitter who will get on base but not do a ton of damage, and Villar is certainly not a power hitter of any kind. I like those odds if this is how the lineup shakes out. If Shaw does play, I’d probably pivot to Suter on the other side of this game, who I considered but ultimately decided against because he has no strikeout upside and he’s facing a Pirates team that doesn’t strikeout often. If we can escape damage from the left-handed batters, Kuhl is very good against right-handed bats with a 3.9 xFIP and 20.4% strikeout rate while allowing an average .320 wOBA and 30.8% hard contact. Right-handed bats also have an above average BABIP of .328 against him, so his numbers here should improve, at least slightly, over the course of the season. He’s a slight underdog in this spot (though I would expect that to shift if Shaw were to miss the game) but he averages 24.7% more fantasy points at home and the Brewers lineup is only batting .200 against him in a solid 59 at-bat sample size. Make no mistake there is plenty of risk here but I think Jonathan Loaisiga will be a popular value option with all the hype he’s getting. I agree he has talent but I’m not ready to buy a rookie pitcher against a tough Seattle offense who’s getting a park upgrade today when he could barely get through five innings against the Rays in his first start. I’d rather take the $1100 discount and take a shot on Kuhl.  

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• The Rangers are very much in play for stacking today.  Junis is worse against right-handed batters than left-handed batters so that doesn't work in their favor but they still have enough power to get to him and then they'd be lined up for a few shots at this Royals bullpen.

• Mets and Rockies bullpens in Coors Field #analysis

• Red Sox should fly under the radar today competing with Coors Field and the Yankees as a stacking option.  Lance Lynn is pitching much better this season but he's no match for this offense.  The Twins bullpen isn't up for that challenge either with their 14% HR/FB and 38.1% hard contact rate

• The Phillies against Michael Wacha are interesting.  He's giving up a ton of hard contact and it's a great environment for hitting today.  If they can get to him early they'd be up against a Cardinals bullpen who has a 4.22 xFIP and 37.6% hard contact rate this season.  

These are not my favorite slates but I understand the mentality of "someone has to win the money."  On the early slate, you're likely using bats from the games in Cincinnati and Philadelphia.  Two small ballparks, hot weather, and mediocre to bad pitching.  You can mix and match those games up.  Kluber is the obvious SP1 and then I like Lucchesi or you could even take a shot on Montas as your SP2 if you wanted.  Montas has little to no strikeout upside but he'll get some help against that Padres lineup today.  On the main slate, Coors is interesting and still contains the top stacking options but it definitely has some competition tonight if you wanted to pivot.  I have interest in several other teams playing on this slate as well (Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, and Royals - you know, basically the whole slate!)  As far as pitching goes, I could see myself taking shots on Gio Gonzalez, who hasn't been good recently but gets a great matchup against a struggling Baltimore team who will lose the DH today and David Price, who has been pitching really well lately and faces a Twins team that struggles with left-handed pitching.  Using those guys and fading Morton could open enough salary to get at least some Coors exposure.  

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

Catch us on LineStar MLB Chat and don't forget to enter the freeroll today!