When I started to get more serious about being a DFS player and turning it into an actual source of income instead of just something I do for entertainment, my whole mindset changed. It wasn't about chasing the "big one" or trying to make a certain amount of money each month. I have one simple goal on every slate.  Be profitable. That's it. It sounds so dumb but it completely changed how I view each slate. It doesn't matter if I win hundreds or a dollar. If I end each week with more money than I started, then I won that week. It's a slower, perhaps less exciting grind, but it also means not having to deposit your own money onto the sites once you get into a rhythm. Plus, as your bankroll goes, you can play for more (I play a max of 10% of my bankroll each night - less if I'm not feeling the slate for some reason) and the stakes can get a bit higher so you'll get some of that excitement still, even if you aren't chasing down a $100K first place prize.  On top of that, if you follow that same format across multiple sites, you spread out the risk and increase your chances of being successful.  DraftKings and FanDuel did not treat me well last night. I ended up on a lot of the Royals value in order to pay up for pitching and it did not go well for me. Cole did not pitch his best (especially for the salary) and the Royals bats did very little. I was also on the wrong Rangers (Gallo and Profar). My lone bright-spot in my main lineup was punting with Rosario at shortstop in Coors Field but that wasn't enough for me to get anywhere near the money. I should have trusted my research. That said, the Mets were a good play, even against the lefty Tyler Anderson, as he'd been just as bad against lefties himself. But, despite that, I had a great night on Draft (thank you Paul Goldschmidt) and was still able to have a profitable night overall.  So, while I was disappointed in my results as a player (made poor decisions and not cashing on FD and DK) it's a bit easier to swallow knowing I still ended up with profitability overall. Just a little insight into how I approach each day. Alright, with that out of the way, we have a massive 15-game slate today and a lot to talk about. I have a crazy idea at pitcher that I'm going to make my case for. You're either going to say I'm smart or a complete moron after reading this one, so I'm looking forward to the feedback today. Let's get to it! 

Power Pitching Targets

Justin Verlander, HOU (@TB) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $11.5K)

If you paid $13K on DraftKings for Cole last night, then you have to have interest, for only $300 more, in Verlander today. It’s actually not as shocking as it seems that the Rays got to Cole like they did. We’ve discussed multiple times in this article that fly balls and hard contact are an issue. I was very concerned about it when he faced Oakland a week ago but I was less concerned about it last night given the lack of power in the Rays lineup. Obviously, it didn’t matter. I also wasn’t expecting him to struggle with command so much and give up as many walks as he did. These will be things we need to keep an eye on going forward. Regardless, I have fewer concerns today about Verlander. While he doesn’t have quite the same strikeout upside (31.7%) that Cole does, he is still well above average and he, unlike Cole, is much better at limiting hard contact (26.5%). Despite what you saw last night, the Rays are not a strong team offensively with just a .130 ISO, .312 wOBA, and 99 wRC+ to right-handed pitching. Verlander is excellent to both sides of the plate with a 3.44 xFIP and 34.7% strikeout rate while allowing just a .209 wOBA and 24.7% hard contact. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.71 xFIP with 29.1% strikeouts while only allowing a .226 wOBA and 27.7% hard contact. The only red flags here are his very high fly ball rates at 58.1% to lefties and 56.9% to righties. But, we already mentioned how he limits hard contact and this results in a very low 5.6% HR/FB rate to lefties and 6.4% HR/FB rate to righties. He’s at home, he’s the largest favorite on the board today at -260 and if you can figure out a way to fit him in that makes sense I wouldn’t talk you out of it. He’s got a great floor for cash games and plenty of upside for tournaments.

Chris Sale, BOS (@MIN) (DK: $12.7K, FD: $11.4K)

Even with everything I just said about Verlander, he is still not the best option on the board today. I will gladly take the discount, which is fairly significant on DraftKings, and move down to Chris Sale. The Twins are approaching New York Mets territory in terms of their performance against left-handed pitching. They have a 24% strikeout rate to go along with just a .130 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 87 wRC+ against lefties this season. Sale should shred this lineup to pieces with his 34% strikeout rate and 15.4% swinging strike rate. Against left-handed batters, Sale has a 2.07 xFIP with 34.6% strikeouts. He has yet to give up a home run to a left-handed bat while allowing just a .260 wOBA and 25.8% hard contact rate. Oh, and the BABIP against him is very high at .355 so somehow he’s actually been unlucky against lefties this season. It doesn’t look any better for the right-handed bats today either with Sale’s 2.92 xFIP and 34% strikeout rate. He’s allowing just a .260 wOBA and 24.7% hard contact to this side of the plate. Honestly, the only knock against Sale today is he’s not as big of a favorite as Verlander is. That’s not because of his own skill set, but rather because the Red Sox have an interesting matchup of their own against Twins ace Jose Berrios. In the past month, on top of all the strikeout upside, Sale has only allowed an aEV of 82.4 mph and an average distance of 190.6 feet. He’s my favorite option on the board and I really want to figure out a way to fit him in along with some Coors exposure for my cash games.  

Value Pitching Options

Vince Velasquez, PHI (vs. STL) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8.8K)

If you liked Pivetta yesterday, then you should like Velasquez today. He’s more expensive but he’s basically the exact same pitcher in terms of strengths and weaknesses. He has a 3.47 SIERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate. He’s facing a St.Louis team that is very right-handed heavy and, like Pivetta, he’s outstanding against right-handed batters. He has a 3.18 xFIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate while only allowing a .271 wOBA. If he gets a similar lineup to what the Cardinals rolled out yesterday (eight right-handed bats) you should feel really good about this spot. Carpenter is still a concern, as Velasquez, again like Pivetta, is a bit home run prone to lefties. He still has a 3.89 xFIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate but he allows 46.2% fly balls and an 18.8% HR/FB rate. But, if Carpenter is really the only left-handed bat in the lineup (or even Carpenter and Fowler) that really shouldn’t scare you off. I chickened out on using Pivetta in cash yesterday because of the 90+ degree weather in that ballpark with the winds blowing out. It was perfect hitting weather. Today is a little better, still in the upper 80's for temperatures, but the wind won’t be a factor anymore, which will help. In fact, the wind is projected to be blowing in a bit, although I don’t think it will be hard enough to make a difference. He’s a -120 favorite and an excellent option in the mid-tier if you’re planning to fade the higher priced pitchers. You could definitely go with a Clevinger/Velasquez combo and then get some Coors bats in with a more balanced lineup approach if you wanted.  

Eric Lauer, SD (vs. OAK) (DK: $4.5K, FD: $5.6K)

Call me crazy, but I think this might be that ticket I’m looking for to help me fit in Sale and at least a few Coors bats today. This is risky and definitely a wildcard option, but I’m going to make a case for Lauer and then you can decide if you want to take the plunge with me tonight or not. There’s nothing in Lauer’s numbers that say we should roster him. In fact, for the most part, it tells us I should abandon this idea and run like hell. He has a 4.98 SIERA with just an 18.3% strikeout rate and 11% walks. He has a 1.98 WHIP with a 41.3% hard contact rate. Ugly right? There is a silver lining. The numbers are poor but the BABIP is extremely high (.388 overall, .364 to LHB and .395 to RHB). This tells us he has a lot of positive regression coming his way. It gives us at least some hope that he’s not pitching nearly as bad as the numbers are indicating. Regardless, the real reason I’m interested in Lauer has absolutely nothing to do with Lauer himself. It’s the matchup he has today with Oakland. The Athletics have been bad against lefties this year. It shocks me as much as you with Kris Davis in the middle of that lineup, but they are striking out 24.4% of the time to left-handed pitching with just a .156 ISO and a pathetic .293 wOBA and 86 wRC+. The only red flag I see is their very high 41.7% hard-hit rate which basically tells me they either hit it out of the park or they strike out. Judging by the high strikeout rate and the low ISO it would appear it’s more strikeouts than home runs. This is where it gets even better. First, Oakland is going to the national league tonight so their already struggling offense against left-handed pitching will now lose a DH for the pitcher. Big boost to Lauer. Plus, this game is in San Diego, so anything they do hit hard and into the air still has a very long way to travel in this massive, pitcher-friendly ballpark. Another boost to Lauer. His low strikeout rate will get a slight bump tonight against this lineup and, as long as he can avoid getting blown up by Davis and Pinder, I think he has enough in this spot to put up a respectable number, especially given how cheap he is. Even if he doesn’t have a good night, the salary he opens up and the possibility of Sale with some Coors exposure might still be enough that Lauer wouldn’t kill your lineups. At the very least, you have to admit, it’s intriguing.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• You'll notice both the Rockies and the Mets bullpens near the bottom of this list.  Just stack Coors today.

• The Royals traded away their one usable arm in the bullpen to the Nationals so now the worst bullpen in baseball is, well, worse. The Rangers are arguably my favorite team to pivot off of Coors with today.

• A Red Sox stack is interesting. It will be very low owned given the bad matchup with Jose Berrios. While Berrios is approaching elite status this season, he's still young and can be prone to mistakes and the Boston bats are on fire right now. If Boston can get past Berrios earlier than usual, it would set them up against the Twins bullpen which is middle of the pack. They have a respectable 3.98 xFIP and 12% swinging strikes but they also allow a 14% HR/FB rate and 38.1% hard contact.  

• The downside of a Yankees stack against Marco Gonzales is that they would still have a tough test against a very effective Seattle bullpen.  They have a 3.80 xFIP, 26.7% strikeout rate, 13.5% swinging strike rate and only allow 31.3% hard contact.  

Great slate today. I think the interesting question is what is the best way to fit in the Coors bats which I definitely think you need exposure to.  Velasquez will likely be the cornerstone of a lot of lineups today, with good reason, as he is in a great spot in that mid-tier and doesn't break the bank. Verlander, in my opinion, is too expensive (though he'll be low owned for an elite arm against the Rays). I really want Sale against the Twins and my idea about using Lauer, while scary, is becoming more appealing to me. If we plug in Sale, Lauer, and then Story and Arenado, you're still left with $3.6K per position. That's definitely doable. I can plug in Mesoraco at catcher and now I have three Coors bats and still $3.6K per position left. It's feasible, but if you want to make fun of me all day on chat for suggesting this, I won't take it personally.  Remember though, Lauer only needs roughly 12 fantasy points today to hit value at his price tag and I don't think it's out of the question for him to meet or exceed that in this spot.  

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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