Hope all you fellow dads out there had a wonderful Father's Day.  It was a wild weekend in sports. The U.S. Open was just plain ridiculous with how difficult that course was. Plus, we had the Phil Mickelson "incident," which I honestly think everyone is making way too big a deal out of. He was frustrated. It wasn't his best moment but things happen. World Cup soccer action is in full swing.  I’m not a soccer person and I didn't watch any of the games but I can appreciate the magnitude of this particular event. Of course, there was plenty of baseball action as well. We kickoff Monday with a nine-game slate on DraftKings and a ten-game slate on FanDuel. DraftKings is not including the Yankees/Nationals game which will begin 30 minutes after they conclude the game they have to finish from last month, which is currently in the sixth inning. Since they only have to play a few innings I don’t think we’ll see any major changes to the lineups like we would in a normal doubleheader but it is something to keep an eye on as we likely won’t know official lineups until after lock. This is a Coors slate, and my initial reaction was a complete fade of Coors today, with deGrom on the hill against the Rockies and a lefty in Tyler Anderson on the hill against the Mets, who are terrible against left-handed pitching this season. But, as we’ll talk about in the stack section, it may not be as much of a fade as I originally thought. Depending on where you land with Coors, we do have some good options for pivots. It’s going to be extremely hot and humid around much of the league today and the winds are even blowing out in a few spots. Six of the nine games have temperatures expected to be above 80 degrees (and Coors is not one of them). Several games have the potential for pop-up thunderstorms that we'll need to watch. Wrigley Field has the most rain potential. Weather will play a big factor today, so be sure you leave enough time prior to lock to get up to speed on the latest forecasts before making your final decisions.    

Power Pitching Targets

Gerrit Cole, HOU (vs. TB) (DK: $13K, FD: $11K)

This is your top option on the board against a Rays team that’s better than we give them credit for since the addition of the young guns including Bauers, Adames, and Smith. But, this is an extremely tall order against Cole and it’s actually a park downgrade for the Rays going from the Trop to Minute Maid Park in Houston. Cole has an impressive 2.51 SIERA that is just slightly above his 2.40 ERA. He has a 36.7% strikeout rate which is by far the highest on the board today and 13.6% swinging strikes which is also the highest on the slate. The Rays strikeout 22.2% of the time against right-handed pitching with just a .130 ISO, .312 wOBA, and 100 wRC+. The wOBA and wRC+ are a bit better than they were earlier this season, but the power numbers are still low. As far as splits are concerned, Cole has a 2.26 xFIP and a massive 42.6% strikeout rate against left-handed batters while only allowing a .242 wOBA and 29.9% hard contact rate. So, that trio of Bauers, Adames, and Smith that I mentioned earlier are going to have their work cut out for them today. Against righties, Cole has a slightly higher but still very respectable 3.28 xFIP. His strikeout rate is lower to right-handed batters but still well above average at 31.3% and he allows only a .252 wOBA. The red flags here are the fly balls and hard contact allowed, particularly to right-handed batters. We talked about this in his last outing against Oakland, who has the highest hard-hit rate in the league against right-handed pitching and they were able to blast two home runs off of him. The Rays are not the Athletics, however, and I don’t see anyone who can really exploit this weakness. Maybe C.J. Cron, but I think that’s really pushing it and this is also a very pitcher-friendly park. There is no line on this game, I assume because it hasn’t been made official who the “follow-guy” will be after Stanek gets the “start” for Tampa Bay (it should be Austin Pruitt but I've also seen Matt Andriese). I imagine Cole will be one of, if not, the heaviest favorite once the lines are released. Don’t over think this one, he should take care of business tonight. He’s the cash game arm I’m going to figure out how to pay for and he has the most upside in tournaments in this matchup

Trevor Bauer, CLE (vs. CWS) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $11.2K)

Bauer makes for a fantastic pivot off Cole today but the biggest red flag is something he won’t be able to control. It’s going to be hot in Cleveland today, around 86 degrees at first pitch with the winds blowing out around 12 mph. Now, this doesn’t mean Bauer still can’t have success but it definitely increases the risk, which is why I’m going to find the extra money for Cole in my cash lineups. But, if you wanted to play Bauer in tournaments, my assumption is he’ll be lower owned than he should be in this spot because of the weather. He has an excellent 3.07 SIERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate and a 13.1% swinging strike rate. His BABIP and GB/FB are both right around league average, so there’s little to suggest any regression will hit him. He gets a solid matchup, against Chicago, who strikes out nearly 25% of the time to right-handed pitching. He’s just faced the White Sox in his last start on June 13th where he went 7.2 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 earned runs and striking out 12. His splits are really strong. He has a 3.03 xFIP with 31.3% strikeouts and only a .263 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.05 xFIP, with 31% strikeouts, and only allows a .270 wOBA. The red flags with him are the hard contact allowed which is at 37.4% to left-handed batters and 38.4% to right-handed batters. But, he does a good job limiting the damage from that hard contact by only allowing a 5.3% HR/FB to left-handed batters and a 6.8% HR/FB to right-handed batters. The other good news is he’s only allowed 28% hard contact over the last month and just 4 barreled balls. He’s a massive -240 favorite and the White Sox are hitting just .190 against him in 85 at-bats. I’d honestly be giving him a hard look over Cole today if it wasn’t for the weather factor, but I still love him for tournaments if you’re willing to take on a little extra risk. 

Value Pitching Options

Miles Mikolas, STL (@PHI) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $9.5K)

You can look at him on FanDuel for tournaments if you want, but this is really more about DraftKings. His priced dropped $2.6K from his previous two starts. I’ve been targeting the Phillies recently with pitching and it’s been paying off very well. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching at 27.1% and the lowest hard-hit rate in the league at 29%. They have some power, mostly due to Rhys Hoskins, with a .164 ISO, but only a .307 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Mikolas is a control and command type of pitcher. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, as displayed by his 18.7% strikeout rate, but he’ll get help with that today against this lineup. He’s also got a 3.55 SIERA and forces a 51.6% groundball rate. For splits, there’s very little to be worried about. To left-handed batters, he has a 3.69 xFIP with only 15.7% strikeouts but 1.7% walks. He has a 45.5% groundball rate and only allows a .303 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a 3.03 xFIP with 22% strikeouts and only 3.8% walks. His groundball rate is absurd at 59.1% while allowing just a .199 wOBA and 28.5% hard contact. The one red flag, however, is his very low .211 BABIP to righties, which likely explains the .199 wOBA allowed. But, even with that potential regression, the very high ground ball rate along with the very low 23.5% fly ball rate and 7.4% HR/FB rate show that he can limit damage in most situations. Despite a couple of rough starts, I like him quite a bit today. In the past month, he’s only allowing 22.6% hard contact, an 86 mph aEV, 190 feet average distance, and just 3 barrelled balls. I am, admittedly, a bit concerned about the weather in this game but most places today outside of the two late games are looking at hot and humid conditions, so it may be a risk we have to take. He’s firmly in play as a SP2 on DraftKings today.  

Nick Pivetta, PHI (vs. STL) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.3K)

The last time I recommended this guy it didn’t work out. That slate had very limited pitching options and Pivetta presented the most upside despite facing several left-handed bats in the Colorado lineup. Today’s matchup plays right into the strengths of Pivetta who is dominant against right-handed batters and will face a right-handed heavy Cardinals team. He has a 3.43 SIERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging strikes. He allows slightly above average fly balls (38%) but a below average HR/FB at 9.9% and below average hard contact at 29.2%. He always has a high BABIP of .323 so his numbers should improve, even slightly, over the course of the season. He’ll face St. Louis today who has some power bats but this is not a good spot for them. They strikeout 22.5% of the time to right-handed pitching with only a .144 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. The one negative is their 39.3% hard-hit rate. Against left-handed batters is where Pivetta makes you nervous, but I’m only expecting two (Carpenter and Fowler) in the lineup today. He has a 4.10 xFIP with a still solid 24.1% strikeout rate. He does allow above average fly balls at 41.9% and an average 10.3% HR/FB. Nothing really stands out here. The numbers are average. Not great but not bad either. The BABIP is slightly higher than average at .315, so we could actually see some improvement against lefties in the long run. Against right-handed batters, however, is where he shines. He has a 2.81 xFIP with a 29.5% strikeout rate. He forces 44.7% groundballs and nearly 10% less fly balls at 34%. He’s also only allowing a .288 wOBA and 27% hard contact rate. Even the BABIP is high here at .330, so his numbers should only get better. He would be my favorite SP2 option for cash games on the board today, but I think the weather makes him a tournament only consideration. The hot weather, in that small park, with the winds blowing out create too much of a risk for cash. I think he’s a great tournament play especially if you think most will shy away due to the weather.  

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The Bullpen

• If you decide to go with the Mets against Tyler Anderson you should feel good about the potential bullpen situation. Colorado is coming off a game they lost 13-12 and they used a ton of arms. They will be totally depleted for tonight, which means Anderson is going to have a long leash even if the game doesn’t go well. If the Mets, despite their struggles with left-handed pitching, can find a way to get to him and then eventually see a tired bullpen it could make a big difference at this park today.

• Similar to the Rockies bullpen situation, the Mets are more rested but not much better. Rostering Colorado bats against deGrom never feels good but this is Coors and anything is possible. If they can find a way to knock deGrom around a little they’d face a bullpen that carries a 4.36 xFIP, 41.2% fly ball rate, and 12.9% HR/FB rate.

• I gave a long look to the Angels as a possible stacking option before ultimately deciding against it. Greinke does struggle with the home run ball to right-handed batters and the Angels are right-handed heavy, but even if they do get to him they’ll have to go through the Arizona bullpen after which has a 3.9 xFIP and 50.3% groundball rate. It’s going to be very cool at this game today too. There are just better hitting environments to attack.

• The Cubs are interesting today as a stack option. I couldn’t bring myself to highlight them above but I think it’s worth a look here. Kenta Maeda only threw 75 pitches in his first start back from the disabled list and he wasn’t particularly sharp. If he’s not 100% he can get into trouble real fast. The Cubs would then face a Dodgers bullpen that’s middle of the pack with a 4.03 xFIP and a 10.9% HR/FB in a much smaller ballpark.  

SP1 today is pretty straightforward. In cash, I’m going Cole because the weather is worrying me in Cleveland a bit. In tournaments, I would go with whichever is less owned of the two. SP2 is a little more blurry. Originally, I was all about Mikolas or Pivetta for cash but I’m starting to move away from that as I think about the hot and humid weather, with winds blowing out, in Citizens Bank Park. I think they are still very much in play for tournaments, but I’m giving Caleb Smith a strong look as my SP2 in cash. He’s very cheap, he gets a matchup with a Giants team that is missing one of their best hitters against left-handed pitching, and it’s a great ballpark for pitching. I’m going to sit on this decision right up until lock but just to give you some insight into where my head is at. As far as bats. I don’t love Coors as much as I normally would. You can consider the Mets as I pointed out how Anderson has struggled with left-handed bats. If anything, I’ll have a one-off or two from there but may not go into full stack mode. Be careful with that Yankees/Nationals game if you’re playing on FanDuel. I really don’t know how that’s going to work out.  

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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