How are your U.S. Open lineups doing? Don’t get discouraged yet. Everyone is in the same boat right now. It may only take one golfer to have a breakout round to put you right back into the thick of things. In the meantime, we have 15 baseball games to distract you from that chaos. I like this slate. I don’t love it, but I like it. Pitching is very interesting. The mid and value tiers are very thin but there are quite a few options in the top tier that I like and you might be surprised by who I like the most. Kluber is fantastic and he’s firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments. But he’s expensive and I don’t think you need him today. If you can find a way to get there and you’re happy with your bats then go for it, but I’m not sure if that will be the most optimal lineup. I love Charlie Morton but for cash games only. He’s also priced up and he’s facing a Royals team that doesn’t strikeout, which lowers his ceiling. The floor is rock solid, as the Royals offense is weak. So he should be able to eat up some innings and get a respectable number of strikeouts, but I would doubt it’s anything that would win you the money in a GPP. The lower tiers are pretty ugly and you can make weak arguments for a handful of guys. I’ll get to a couple of my suggestions in a minute. There are several good spots for bats, but many of them come with a high cost. That will make roster construction very interesting today because I don’t really want to pay down at pitcher either. This is looking like one of those nights where I don’t accomplish a whole lot until after lineups start getting posted and hopefully a little-unexpected value opens up that we can work with.  

Real quick, before we jump into the breakdown. The only place I'm seeing any kind of rain threat is in Atlanta but I don't see it having an impact. It's hot in a few spots including Texas (95), Kansas City (92), St. Louis (91), Atlanta (85), and Chicago (84). No impact from the wind at this point but that could obviously change. Even if I don't have much to report weather wise in this article, you should always check it again before lock.  

Power Pitching Targets

James Paxton, SEA (vs. BOS) (DK: $10.7K, FD: $10K)

The Red Sox struggles against left-handed pitching are real. I don’t have an explanation for it and, as a Boston fan, I don’t want to believe it but it’s true. They have a 24.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season and are hitting the ball on the ground over 48% of the time. Their team ISO is a lousy .143 to go along with a very weak .299 wOBA and 84 wRC+. Their hard-hit rate is 29.9%. That’s the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors against lefties. In their most recent game against a left-handed pitcher, they faced Carlos Rodon in his first game off the disabled list. They won the game 4-2, but Rodon had seven strikeouts and only gave up 2 earned runs. The White Sox committed three errors in the game (all in the same inning) that led to the other two runs. Had Rodon got any help from the defense, he likely would have walked away with a victory. The game before that was against Matt Boyd who allowed just 2 earned runs with six strikeouts in 6.1 innings of work to pick up the victory. I’ve got news for you, Matt Boyd and Carlos Rodon are NOT James Paxton. Plus, Paxton is getting the Red Sox discount today which I will gladly take advantage of. He has an ERA and SIERA that are almost identical at 3.02 and 3.00 respectively with 31.4% strikeouts and 13.2% swinging strikes. I’m throwing his numbers against lefties completely out the window. He has an 8.31 ERA but a 3.00 xFIP and a ridiculous .472 BABIP. This suggests regression will be coming his way in a hurry, so I’m not even going to worry about the hard contact rate or home runs allowed to lefties. They are just bad beats on good pitches. He also still has a 30.3% strikeout rate versus lefties despite all the bad luck. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.15 xFIP, 31.7% strikeout rate and .225 wOBA allowed. He does give up 45.7% fly balls and 36.2% hard contact, so it’s okay to be afraid of Betts and Martinez. I certainly wouldn’t go here in cash but he makes for an excellent tournament pivot today. He’s underpriced because he’s facing the Red Sox and he’ll likely be under-owned for the same reasons. He’s at home, in a good ballpark for limiting offense, and is a comfortable -142 favorite. He’s firmly on the tournament radar today.

Ross Stripling, LAD (vs. SF) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $9.1K)

You couldn’t hand Stripling a better spot than the one he is in today if your life depended on it. The Dodgers are home and had the day off yesterday. The Giants, meanwhile, played yesterday, in Miami, in a game that went 16 innings. Oh, and Evan Longoria broke his finger when he got hit by a pitch and is now on the disabled list. These guys are exhausted from playing 16 innings which will only be magnified having to fly east to west to play today. And now they have two huge holes in their lineup without Belt or Longoria. I know McCutchen is on fire right now but he can’t do it alone. Stripling is my favorite pitcher on the board and I’m gladly taking the discount on him over the higher priced guys in both cash games and tournaments. The Giants have the lowest implied total today at just 2.78 and they strikeout 24.9% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .154 ISO. Still need convincing? Stripling has been really good this season. He has a 2.69 SIERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, and is only allowing 23.3% hard contact. Against lefties, he has a 2.52 xFIP and the strikeout rate goes up to 31.2% while giving up just a .262 wOBA and an incredible 18.5% hard contact rate. The best part? His BABIP is actually high to lefties at .333. Let’s recap for a second. He’s giving up a wOBA well below .300 and hard contact below 20% and he’s been unlucky? How is that possible? He’s been just as good against righties with a 2.83 xFIP, 29% strikeouts, 50.7% groundballs, and only a .256 wOBA allowed. He’s a massive -220 favorite, at home, and in the last month, he’s allowed just an 86.5 mph aEV, a 187.1 average distance and two barreled balls. The only argument against him is his ownership in tournaments today. If he’s shaping up to be the chalk, I could see pivoting to some of the higher priced guys if you can make it work. 

Value Pitching Options

Brent Suter, MIL (vs. PHI) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $6.5K)

Surprised by this recommendation? Me too. But as I said in the introduction, value pitching options today are pretty thin and Suter is standing out to me. For starters, it’s a solid matchup against a pretty weak Philadelphia offense. Outside of Rhys Hoskins (who admittedly is very scary and swinging the bat well right now), there is nobody else who makes me nervous. As a team, Philadelphia strikes out 23.2% of the time to left-handed pitching with just a .124 ISO, .296 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. We talked yesterday about how weak their hard-hit rate is against right-handed pitching. It’s a little better against left-handed pitching but still pretty poor at 31.4%. Suter’s numbers won’t knock you over but they don’t send you running either. He has a respectable 4.00 SIERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate (which will get a boost against this lineup) and only 5.2% walks. He’s showing reverse split tendencies this season. He has a 3.38 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP against left-handed bats with only a 13% strikeout rate. Not ideal right? But what left-handed batters have you concerned in this lineup? Nick Williams and J.P Crawford have zero power and massive strikeout rates against lefties. Odubel Herrera is fine but he’s not elite by any stretch. The guys who bat from the right-side are more powerful but they also strike out quite a bit and Suter is much better this season against righties. He has a 3.54 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate. His GB/FB ratio is average and the hard contact is slightly above average but not bad at 33.5%. In the last month, he’s forcing 24.6% soft contact and allowing just an 84.8 aEV and 198.8 average distance. Like I said, I’m surprised, but he does check a lot of boxes today. He’s a favorite, against a weak lineup, and he’s pitched really well over his last five starts. There’s a couple of spots where regression could get him, and a Hoskins home run wouldn’t shock me (he got one off Marquez yesterday but Marquez still turned out to be an excellent play). Overall, I like a lot more about Suter than I dislike. Don’t go crazy, but he’s a sneaky tournament value play on this slate.  

Jose Urena, MIA (@BAL) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.8K)

If I’m paying down at pitcher today (hint: I’m not), this is where I would go. Urena gets a matchup that aligns with his strengths. The Orioles are very right-handed heavy and he is excellent against right-handed batters. Overall, he has a 3.84 SIERA with an average 19.8% strikeout rate with only 5.4% walks and forcing 50.8% groundballs. Baltimore will give that average strikeout rate a big boost today, as they strikeout 25.2% of the time to right-handed pitching. They also have a weak .153 ISO, .289 wOBA, and 80 wRC+. We’ll get the bad out of the way first. Against left-handed batters, Urena has a 4.03 xFIP (not terrible) with only 16.3% strikeouts. He still has a 50.4% groundball rate but he is allowing a huge 45.3% hard contact rate. But, which left-handed bats in this lineup make you nervous? Fun fact: There is a bar in Baltimore called “Bartenders Pub,” that is giving out free drinks during the Orioles games every time Chris Davis gets a hit. I don’t think they’ve had to give many drinks out yet. Urena’s low strikeout rate doesn’t worry me in the least when, basically, the only left-handed bat he’ll face (if he’s even in the lineup) is Chris Davis. Now the good news, Urena is excellent against right-handed batters and he’s probably going to face eight of them today. He has a 3.66 xFIP with 23.7% strikeouts and a 51.5% groundball rate. He’s only allowing 0.48 HR/9 and a .300 wOBA and the BABIP is actually on the high side right now at .324. Baltimore can hit for power, and Machado makes for a fine one-off option, so it’s not like this is a risk free move. But, overall, this is a great spot for Urena. Baltimore’s implied run total started up near 5 and has fallen to 4.63 as of 8 am EST. It wouldn’t shock me at all if it came down even more before first pitch.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

The Bullpen

• I like the Astros against Junis and I like them even more against the Royals bullpen who continues to trade places with the Indians for worst in the league.

• We didn't talk about the Rangers in the stack section but I think you can make an argument. I'm not really on board with their huge implied total. Bettis has reverse splits which help him against that left-handed heavy lineup, but, if they do get to Bettis, early it would be a big advantage against a very poor Colorado bullpen.

• The Pirates and Reds both make for interesting stack options. They are both pretty left-handed heavy and they are facing pitchers who are not good against lefties. Both bullpens are pretty weak as well.  This game has an O/U of 9 which is really high for PNC Park.

Big slate with lots of potential. For cash games, if I can get to Kluber, I will, but I'm not going to force it. I think I'm more likely to end up with Morton and Stripling but I'll need to see what that means for bats. In tournaments, I'm in the same boat. I made cases for Suter and Urena but I'll only use them if I absolutely have to. If I can find a tournament lineup that makes sense and still pay up at the pitcher spot, that's really what I'd like to do.  Good luck today and also this weekend!

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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