There are nights when you make a mistake and it costs you. While those are not fun they are good experiences because you can go back and understand what happened and learn from it. Unfortunately, last night was just one of those nights where you probably did everything right but it just didn’t work out. That’s going to happen in DFS it’s just a part of this crazy thing called fantasy sports. The Cardinals were absolutely the team to stack they just didn’t show up. The value pitching tier was full of landmines that were difficult to miss. Weaver, despite the great matchup, had a rough beginning to his start, ran up his pitch count, and, as expected, got the hook after just 5.1 innings despite settling down. Pivetta started off strong before getting blown up later. Outside of the two of them the only other value pitcher I considered, but didn’t use, was Matt Boyd. He was fine. Not good but not bad he certainly didn’t kill your lineups if you used him. The most important takeaway from Boyd is that I think this thing about using lefties against the Twins is real. Brian Dozier is broken and the Twins have been miserable against left-handed pitching. File that one away for safe keeping on a future slate.

As far as tonight goes, there are two Germans on this slate (German Marquez and Domingo German) and I like the one the rest of you probably don't.  We'll get to that shortly. As usual, for these Thursday articles, I’ll highlight my favorite players from any of the games today and point out which slate they are on (as best I can FanDuel is doing some weird stuff with their slates lately). Even though these are small slates, there is enough to work with and I have one pitcher in particular that I really like who I’m thinking will fly under the radar. As far as weather goes, it should be pretty quiet. There’s a small rain threat in Atlanta that I doubt has any impact. There’s some heat in a couple spots like Atlanta (84) and Detroit (81). The only wind I’m watching is in New York where it’s currently forecasted to be blowing out around 13 mph which could be tough in that small park. Let’s take a look and see how our rosters will shape up on both of these slates today.  

Early Slate

Justin Verlander, HOU (@OAK) (DK: $13.1K, FD: 11.4K)

Verlander is your top arm of the day on either slate and has the highest ceiling of any pitcher available to us. Similar to what we discussed yesterday regarding Cole, the floor is lower in this spot than it normally would be because Oakland hits right-handed pitching so well. But, unlike yesterday, we don’t have nearly the same amount of options on this smaller slate so despite the added risk he’s still your best bet for both cash games and tournaments in my opinion. He has a 2.97 SIERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and 13% swinging strikes. Just like Cole, the downside is his very high fly ball rate at 55.9% but unlike Cole, he manages his hard contact rate very well at just 26.5% which has resulted in only a 5.1% HR/FB rate. When we look at the splits, Verlander has a 3.33 xFIP and 35.4% strikeout rate against lefties and a 3.64 xFIP and 29.3% strikeout rate against righties. His fly ball rate to both sides of the plate is huge (55.8% to lefties and 56% to righties) but his hard contact is very low (25.6% to lefties and 27.2% to righties) as well as the wOBA (.209 to lefties and .215 to righties). He profiles very similarly to Cole, with a little less strikeout upside but he does a much better job managing hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. This will work in his favor today against Oakland who crushes right-handed pitching with a .176 ISO and 41.8% hard contact rate. Verlander’s ability to limit hard contact greatly diminishes the threat presented by the Oakland bats. He’s a very comfortable -170 favorite today and I think he’s worth the salary and the chalk you’ll have to eat when you roster him. There are other places you can differentiate your roster and it’s important that you lock in as many points as possible from your pitchers on this small slate.  

German Marquez, COL (@PHI) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $7.7K)

Here’s my wildcard for today. I love targeting Rockies pitchers on the road because nobody else ever plays them. People take one look at a Colorado pitcher’s numbers and cross them off their list. They don’t stop and think about the fact that they pitching half of their starts in Coors Field. Yes, Marquez gave up three home runs in one inning in his last start, that’s true. But he was facing the Diamondbacks, who have a 40.8% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, at Coors Field, in 95-degree weather with the winds blowing out. What did you think was going to happen? Today presents Marquez with a significantly better matchup, against a Phillies team that strikes out 27% of the time to right-handed pitching (worst in the league) and has just a 28.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching (also worst in the league). Marquez, at least this season, is a completely different pitcher on the road. He has a 2.06 ERA (3.75 xFIP) with a 23.8% strikeout rate and a 1.09 WHIP away from Coors (1.90 WHIP at home). He forces 44.7% groundballs while allowing only 30.2% hard contact and a .267 wOBA. On the road, against left-handed bats, he has a 3.75 xFIP, while maintaining his 23% strikeout rate and allowing only a .251 wOBA. Against right-handed bats, still on the road, the xFIP decreases to 3.55 and the strikeout rate increases to 24.6% with a whopping 56.1% groundball rate and allowing just a .285 wOBA and 27.9% hard contact rate. The magic of Coors field. You take a pitcher who is well-below average and place him anywhere else in the league and suddenly he’s above average. Citizens Bank Park is still a very hitter-friendly ballpark, so this doesn’t come without risk, but on a small slate, where you need to dig a little deeper, I think Marquez is someone that will easily get overlooked by the field simply cause his surface numbers are inflated due to his starts at home. I love him for tournaments today and honestly, though I’m less confident in this idea, I really think he’s in consideration as an SP2 in cash on DraftKings against this very weak Philadelphia lineup.  

Main Slate

David Price, BOS (@SEA) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8.4K)

I really don’t love this idea today but I’m going to explain why I’m recommending Price. I think everyone is going to play Domingo German on the main-slate tonight and it will be a mistake. German’s numbers on paper are pretty solid I won’t argue with you. He definitely got my attention at first glance. But he still carries a ton of risk and if he’s going to be chalk I want no part of him. The Tampa Bay Rays offense is better than you think, especially with some of these younger guys starting to get more playing time. It’s also a massive park upgrade for them going to Yankee Stadium and the wind is expected to be blowing out around 13 mph. With the amount of hard contact that German gives up I can see that going south on him in hurry. I’m more likely to stack Rays bats against him today. That leaves with me Price, who has a tough task ahead of him today but is pitching really well as of late. He has a 4.17 SIERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate. His groundball and fly ball rates are both average and so far he’s got the hard contact under control at 31.9%. Against righties, which I’m terrified of with guys like Cruz, Haniger, and Healy all in the mix, Price has been fine with a 4.18 xFIP and 24.1% strikeout rate while only allowing a .084 HR/9 and a .309 wOBA. He’s a little worse against lefties actually with only a 19.5% strikeout rate. His wOBA allowed (.234) and hard contact allowed (20.7%) to lefties are both excellent but his BABIP is very low at just .179 so I don’t expect that to last. Still, the Mariners are lacking left-handed power with Robinson Cano on suspension. We could get an even bigger upgrade if Kyle Seager misses again today. He’s really the only other lefty I’d be concerned with. He was a late scratch prior to yesterday’s game and he’s listed as day-to-day for personal reasons which doesn’t sound good. Hopefully everything is all right. But, again, if he’s out it’s a significant downgrade to this lineup. On top of all this, Price is a -122 favorite and this is a nice park upgrade for him going from Fenway to Safeco Field. I fully admit it’s not the best spot but I think I’ve made a case for how he can be successful today and I’m just not comfortable with using German especially if he’s going to be the chalk option on this slate.  

Anibal Sanchez, ATL (vs. SD) (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.3K)

Third time’s a charm, right? We’ve had very little luck using pitchers against San Diego this week but I’m going right back to this well today with Sanchez. He’s pitched okay this season. Not good enough to get you excited but not bad enough to make you run away and he’s so inexpensive that you’ll be able to do anything you want with the bats. His 4.21 SIERA which is almost two runs above his ERA isn’t ideal but he has an above average 21.3% strikeout rate and a solid 46.3% groundball rate while along allowing 22.9% hard contact. The hard contact rate obviously isn’t sustainable as shown by his very low .205 BABIP but it helps today that he’s facing San Diego and their very weak .126 ISO, .287 wOBA, and 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They also strikeout 25.8% of the time which should give Sanchez an additional boost. Against lefties, he’s had mixed results. His 3.63 xFIP, 29.6% strikeout rate, and 53.3% groundball rate are impressive. But, he’s also allowed 2.19 HR/9 and 36.7% hard contact to lefties which is why I recommended Hosmer in the home run watch list. He’s been worse against righties, with a 4.62 xFIP and only 14.7% strikeouts with a much lower groundball rate. Don’t pay any attention to the .266 wOBA and 15.1% hard contact allowed. The sample size is very small and those numbers are not sustainable. But, even with some regression due against righties, which right-handed bats scare you in this San Diego lineup? Maybe Renfroe? But that’s really about it. I’m not super comfortable with the idea of using Sanchez but on small slates like this we need to take some risks and with no single pitcher really standing out on the main-slate I think the strategy that makes the most sense is to find as much value as you can at pitcher and the load up on the Yankees, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Mets who are all in fantastic spots tonight.  

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The Bullpen

• The Diamondbacks bullpen is currently ranked first in the league but there are some red flags here. For starters, their SIERA, while still good, is significantly higher than their ERA. They also have a very low .256 BABIP and they allow a very high 38.4% hard contact rate. I like the Mets against Koch enough that I’ll take my chances and hope we get a regression game against this bullpen.

• Stacking against Clevinger is an interesting strategy on this small slate today. He’s one of the more talented arms available to us but he’s not elite by any means and I think he’ll be popular. If the White Sox get to him early, you’d then have a stack lined up against the awful Indians bullpen. Could be a solid move from a game theory perspective

• I talked about how much I like Arizona today against Steven Matz and they get a bigger boost because after they crush him they’ll get to crush this below average Mets bullpen and either 4.51 ERA, 10.6% walk rate, and 40.8% fly ball rate.

That’s it! I don't see either of these as cash game slates so I'm planning to cut down on how much bankroll I put in play today and take some shots in a few tournaments.  That's typically how I approach Thursday split-slates like this.  On the early slate, I'm sticking to my guns with German Marquez.  It probably sounds scary but I think I presented a compelling argument and he'll be very low owned even with only four games.  That will leave you plenty of room for Verlander and some bats.  On the main-slate, I'm pivoting off the chalk German (assuming he's chalk) with Price and Sanchez and then attempting to load up on bats here as well.  Good luck today!

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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