Much better night for me other than I forgot to update my original dummy lineup in the freeroll (I always do a quick build in the morning after I finish this article while the information is still fresh and then re-build in the afternoon when I've had a chance to look at more information and see the posted lineups). Shoutout to DraftKings user: kutty83 I'm pretty sure this is his third trip to the top three in the freeroll tournaments. Not sure if you're a LineStar subscriber or not.

We’ve got baseball games all-day but for the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on the nine-game main slate which has plenty of options to stand on its own. I like this slate quite a bit. There’s a good mix of pitching options across all pricing tiers and some solid spots for offense (though not a ton of stacks, which I'll talk about later). As far as the weather outlook is concerned for today, Philadelphia and New York are the only two games with any chance of rain, from what I can tell, and both threats are extremely small. We’ve got a few hot weather games where it will be 85 in St. Louis and Kansas City and 82 in Philadelphia. Philly also has some light winds blowing out around 10 mph. That’s not much, but when you factor in the heat and the very small ballpark, this is shaping up to be a good hitter’s environment today. Winds are blowing out in Detroit around 12 mph and it will be approaching 80 degrees at first pitch, so this is another spot where I’d give a slight boost to the bats. I would expect the roof to be closed in Miami, so nothing to worry about there and everywhere else is pretty quiet. Let’s get to work and see how this slate breaks down for us today!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@OAK) (DK: $13.2K, FD: $11.8K)

Cole is your top tournament arm on this slate but I don't necessarily think he's who I'm going to use in cash tonight. His numbers this season continue to be mind-boggling with a 2.41 SIERA, 37.8% strikeout rate and 14% swinging strikes. He gets a fairly difficult matchup against an Oakland offense that really hits right-handed pitching hard. They have a .178 ISO, .321 wOBA, and 105 wRC+. Their most impressive stat is their team 41.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. This isn’t going to get me off of Cole (the A's have to actually make contact first) but it does make things slightly more interesting than they would be against most teams. If we check out the splits, we’ll see Cole carries only a 2.18 xFIP with a monster 43.4% strikeout rate while only allowing a .247 wOBA against left-handed batters. On the other side, he has a 3.18 xFIP with 32.1% strikeouts and only allows a .228 wOBA to righties. The only downside that I’m seeing is a very high fly ball rate (48.1% to lefties and 45.8% to righties) and some above average hard contact allowed (31.3% to lefties and 35.7% to righties). Basically, if someone can actually overcome the massive strikeout rate and make contact there’s a pretty good chance that ball is going to go high and far, but that’s never a guarantee. This will be his third appearance against Oakland this season. On April 29th he went 6.2 innings, scattering 6 hits, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 12. On May 9th he went 6 innings and allowed 4 hits and only 1 earned run while striking out 9. He’s a very comfortable -180 favorite and the Athletics’ lineup is batting just .220 off him in 58 at-bats. If you want to play him in cash I definitely wouldn't talk you out of it. I'm a bit concerned about how hard Oakland has hit right-handed pitching this season. I think the floor is lowered a bit more in this matchup than it is for Berrios or Bauer. With that said, he still has a massive ceiling and he's my favorite option for tournaments.

Jose Berrios, MIN (@DET) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $9.8K)

Berrios continues to transform into the elite pitcher we all thought he had to chance to be. He’s 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and has 84 strikeouts to only 14 walks in 83.2 innings of work. He’s coming off a complete game where he allowed just 2 earned runs without any walks while striking out 10 against the White Sox. He has a 3.30 SIERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, and 11.8% swinging strike rate. He’s limiting his opponents to a below average 29% hard contact rate so far this season. Today, he’ll get a Detroit Tigers team, who he’s already faced once this season, that strikes out 21.3% of the time with a .143 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 85 wRC+. The Tigers will be without Miguel Cabrera, who has a ruptured bicep tendon and will miss the rest of the season. As far as splits go, typically Berrios has been a guy we preferred against right-handed hitters. Last season, versus lefties, he had a very poor 5.31 xFIP with just 20.2% strikeouts and nearly 12% walks while allowing a .341 wOBA. What a difference a year makes as this season, against lefties, Berrios has a much improved 3.60 xFIP with 23.5% strikeouts and only 4.9% walks while allowing just a .258 wOBA. Of course, this doesn’t matter much today since he’s facing a very right-handed heavy Tigers lineup. But still, I always think it’s fun to see when a pitcher has made drastic improvements in their development like this. Against righties, he has an outstanding 3.25 xFIP, 28.1% strikeout rate, and only 3.7% walks. He’s only allowing a .266 wOBA and 27.5% hard contact to this side of the plate. The only red flag I’m seeing is a low .248 BABIP but this is just too good of a spot for that to alter my use of him at all. In his last appearance against Detroit, on May 21st, he went 8 innings allowing only 3 hits, 2 earned runs and struck out 9 in the victory. He’s my favorite option today for cash games and makes for an excellent pivot off of Cole in tournaments if you wanted to save some salary and invest more in your bats.

Value Pitchers

Nick Pivetta, PHI (vs. COL) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8K)

Admittedly, Pivetta has gone a little cold in his last two starts, but the statistics suggest these are outliers and not something to be overly concerned about. The best part is his price has dropped (nearly $2K on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel) which makes this the perfect time to jump back on board (minus the ownership). He has a 3.76 ERA which is slightly above his 3.33 SIERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and 11.2% swinging strikes. These are elite level numbers. He has an average GB/FB ratio, a solid 1.16 WHIP, and he’s only allowing 27.5% hard contact. His BABIP is high right now at .312, which could help explain why he hasn’t been as sharp as we would expect in his last couple of outings. It would appear to be a bit more about just being unlucky than his actual skill set. He’ll face the Rockies today, who we love to target outside of Coors, with their less than impressive .159 ISO, .304 wOBA and 75 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They strikeout 23.3% of the time which should boost Pivetta’s already high strikeout upside. Like his teammate Aaron Nola, who had a fantastic outing last night, Pivetta is another curveball guy which is a pitch that Colorado struggles with (outside of Blackmon and Desmond). Against lefties, Pivetta’s xFIP is a little high at 4.13, but he still has an excellent strikeout rate at 24.6% while only allowing a .314 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, he’s dominant with his 2.63 xFIP and 30.3% strikeout rate while allowing just a .264 wOBA and 24.2% hard contact rate. He’s a -143 favorite and I think he’s significantly underpriced in this spot tonight. The downside here, of course, is he’s likely to be chalky, so you’ll have to decide if you’re comfortable with chalk Pivetta or not in tournaments. He’s in strong consideration for my SP2 in cash on DraftKings.

Dylan Covey, CWS (vs. CLE) (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.6K)

The million dollar question of the day brings us to our wildcard option for this slate. Are we buying Dylan Covey this season? He’s coming off of a fantastic performance in which he allowed no runs and 3 hits with only 1 walk while striking out 7 against the Boston Red Sox. But, in case you don’t remember, the Red Sox lineup that night was without both Mookie Betts and J.D Martinez. Boston’s lineup is still above average even with both of those players missing but that obviously helped him out. Today, he’ll get a tougher test against Cleveland assuming all their regular starters make the lineup tonight. Watered down Boston lineup or not, however, you can’t argue with Covey’s numbers this season and how much better they are compared to last year. Let’s take a quick look at a side by side comparison of the two seasons:

Incredible right? Obviously the sample size is smaller this season but the SIERA suggests this isn’t a fluke. In fact his BABIP this year is higher than it was last year! The only thing I see that could potentially change is the swinging strike rate indicates that his strikeout rate isn’t sustainable in the long run. But even if he could keep that around the league average it would still be a drastic improvement over last season. His two-seam fastball, his most often used pitch, has had some serious movement on it which has resulted in only a .056 ISO and .313 wOBA allowed against lefties and a .057 ISO and .258 wOBA against righties this season. The BABIP is super high on both of those pitches as well, suggesting he may only get better as the season goes on. The only red flag I’m seeing is a very high 14.3% walk rate to left-handed batters. Outside of that, his groundball rate is absurd, the strikeout rate is solid, and he’s not giving up home runs (seriously, he’s yet to give one up this season although we know that isn't sustainable). So, I’ll ask again, are you buying Dylan Covey this year? I do think he’ll have some regression come his way, as some of these numbers are just not realistic (again, the home runs), but I still think even with that he’s shaping up to be an above average pitcher. I don’t think, however, this is the best spot (although James Shields proved me wrong once again yesterday – I hate that guy) against a tough Indians offense. I’m only a 1-3 lineup per night type player who focuses heavily on multiplayer contests, so I won’t be using Covey myself. But, if you’re a mass-multi entry GPP person, I would definitely consider lightly sprinkling some Covey into your lineup mix and then loading up on Yankees and Cardinals bats.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

I’ll be honest, there are not a ton of stacks that I like today. There’s plenty of spots for offense but, at the moment, I think my strategy would be to use one of these stacks below and build around them with some one-offs or a pair of players in a good spot as opposed to a full stack. Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Philadelphia all appealed to me at first glance but I found strong arguments to eliminate all of them as I went through my research process. With that said, I really like these stacks:

The Bullpen

• I like but don’t love the Giants tonight. I considered them for the stacking section as they have a handful of guys who can hit left-handed pitching really well but decided to save them for this section instead. Caleb Smith is a talented, high upside pitcher who I’m a fan of and, this is obviously not a great park for hitters, so I couldn’t bring myself to say the Giants are a strong stack candidate. With that said, Smith does allow a lot of fly balls and hard contact and the Giants have several players including Posey, Longoria, and McCutchen who can crush lefties. If they do get to Smith then things would really be looking up as they’d get to take on a terrible Marlins bullpen.

• I’m going to reiterate the fact that the Padres, despite being a strong bullpen on paper, are completely worn out right now. If Eric Lauer gets shelled, which is likely, we’ll probably be looking at several innings from Phil Hughes who is at the bottom of this bullpen rotation. Fire up the Cardinals today.

• I’d expect an early hook for Erik Feede for Washington today (either because he’s inexperienced or because he’s getting killed) so the Yankees should get an extended opportunity against the bullpen. The Nationals are good, not great. They have a 3.78 ERA and 3.45 SIERA with a solid 24.9% strikeout rate. They do allow nearly 40% fly balls and 34.8% hard contact, however, which will not do them any favors against this offense in this very hitter-friendly ballpark.

That’s it! Sorry for a quicker than usual article but I have a very busy day (including a presentation at my full-time job that I’m not ready for hahaha) and I wanted to be sure this was up in time for you guys. Cole is my top tournament arm as he carries the highest ceiling but I like Berrios more for cash games as I think his floor is stronger. I'm probably in the minority on this one but this is what the research is telling me. I think Berrios makes for a strong tournament pivot as well, and I didn’t mention Trevor Bauer but he's in a great spot for tournaments too. For value, I’m leaning Pivetta over Weaver right now. Weaver, especially at his price tag, against the Padres is going to be very popular. My issue with him is he has a super quick hook. Here are his innings pitched in his last 10 starts: 4, 4.2, 5.1, 4, 5, 7, 7, 4, 5, 5. Even at his price tag, you’re asking an awful lot of someone to meet or exceed value when he can’t get past 4-5 innings of work. As far as offense is concerned, like I said, I don’t love a ton of stacks today, but the ones that I did mention above I REALLY like and will be using heavily tonight. The Cardinals are my top choice because of how tired the Padres bullpen is right now but the Yankees are a close second and the Reds not much further behind.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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