There’s nothing really to say. I’m taking the loss last night and moving on. I was way off on pitching with both Carrasco and Flaherty throwing gems (note: If I say fade Carrasco, you should probably play him and when I say play him, you should run like hell. I can never get him right). Meanwhile, another above average pitcher struggled with the mighty Miami Marlins and my value play of Sam Gaviglio got shelled. I’m really bummed about Gaviglio. I’d been waiting for weeks to use him as his numbers had been solid and it felt like the perfect spot against a non-threatening Rays lineup. The icing on the cake was the Cleveland bats, who were less than exciting in a prime spot. Just not my night but that’s the beauty of DFS. You need a short-term memory because every day is a clean slate to start it all over again.

Today is an interesting 15-game slate with pitcher selection being a bit of a challenge. On DraftKings, value is seriously lacking which can be explained by Clay Bucholz's ($8.2K) and Adam Plutko's ($8.3) price tags. On FanDuel, we seem to have the opposite problem where there is too much value as all the top tier arms are priced well below where they are on DraftKings (Nola – DK: $12K, FD: $9.5K, ERod – DK: $11.1K, FD: $8.5K, Folty – DK: $11.8K, FD: $9K). Too much value sounds like a great problem to have in theory, but it can actually make it difficult to narrow down your player pool because you want exposure to everyone when you can afford them. I’ll do my best to sort through that today.

As far as the weather, we have threats of rain in a few spots such as Detroit, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis with Chicago being the one we need to watch the most. Cooler temperatures around the league for mid-June, outside of St. Louis where it will be 89 degrees and Kansas City where it will be 92 degrees at first pitch. No major winds that would have an impact on any of the games so not much to consider there.  

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. COL) (DK: $12K, FD: $9.5K)

Our top arm of the day is Aaron Nola, who is at home facing the Colorado Rockies. First thing I did when I saw Nola’s name on the list was lookup the Rockies players against the curveball because we know that’s his best pitch. What I found is outside of Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond, every player on the Rockies has a below average wOBA and ISO against the curve. That's good news. Even better is Nola has a 3.42 SIERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging strikes so far this season. He’s getting 53.7% ground balls and only allowing 27.3% hard contact. Colorado, meanwhile, strikes out 23.3% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .159 ISO, .304 wOBA, and 75 wRC+. When we factor in the splits, Nola’s upside takes a slight hit against lefties with only a 19.8% strikeout rate, but he still limits any damage with just a 3.76 xFIP, 56.8% groundball rate while allowing just a .239 wOBA and 22.1% hard contact. BABIP is low at just .248 but even if we see some regression here, these numbers are still very strong. Against right-handed bats, he has an excellent 2.60 xFIP with a 30.5% strikeout rate while still getting 50% groundballs and only allowing a .237 wOBA. It’s not the best ballpark in the league for pitching but Nola is averaging 39% more fantasy points at home this season. He’s a comfortable -150 favorite and the Rockies have the lowest implied run total on the board today at 3.39. He’ll be my cash game arm tonight and I like him for tournaments as well.  

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (@BAL) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $8.5K)

ERod comes in as the largest favorite on the board today at -160 (although there are a couple of games without lines at the moment and I suspect Miles Mikolas will eventually own that title). You’re going to have two initial reactions to Rodriguez today. First, you’ll balk at the price because this is by far the most we’ve ever paid for him. Then, you’ll get nervous about the matchup because he’s a lefty and the Orioles can roll out a ton of right-handed bats. Then, you’ll start to remember how good he is against Baltimore and how good he has been this season in general. There’s enough plate appearances against Rodriguez here that have my attention, most notably Manny Machado, who has just a .242 wOBA and .065 ISO in 34 plate appearances, Jonathan Schoop who has a .264 wOBA and .167 ISO in 25 plate appearances, and Danny Valencia who has a .305 wOBA and .059 ISO in 20 plate appearances. All good news so far right? Rodriguez has also already dominated the Orioles twice this season with just one earned run and two walks with 15 strikeouts in 11 innings and getting the win in both games. It only gets better. He’s 7-1 this season with a 3.68 ERA (3.45 SIERA), 27.6% strikeout rate, and 11.7% swinging strike rate. Baltimore strikes out 22.6% of the time to left-handed pitchers with a very poor .137 ISO, .291 wOBA, and 81 wRC+. We don’t need to worry much about lefties since the Orioles hardly have any but just know he dominates them. Against righties, he’s been outstanding with a 3.99 xFIP, 23.7% strikeout rate and only allowing a .292 wOBA and 27% hard contact rate. In the past month, he’s forced an incredible 29.2% soft contact which has resulted in an average exit velocity of only 86.2 mph and an average distance of 199.5 feet with just one barreled ball. He’s my second favorite arm today and similar to Nola is in the conversation for both cash games and tournaments on this slate.

Value Pitchers

Zack Wheeler, NYM (@ATL) (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.2K)

This is where it starts to get a bit more fuzzy. I’m telling you now that I’m paying up for pitcher tonight but if you’re playing multiple lineups and looking to mix in some cheaper pitching I’d give Wheeler a look. I realize the Atlanta Braves are not a team we want to make a habit of targeting with pitchers, but they are more intimidating against lefties and also still missing Ronald Acuna Jr from the lineup right now. Against right-handed pitching they are pretty average across the board with a 20.7% strikeout rate, .158 ISO, .316 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. Wheeler has a SIERA exactly at 4.00, which is fine, not great, but fine. He has an above average strikeout rate this season at 22.4% and he’s forcing 46.7% groundballs while allowing 30% hard contact. The BABIP is high as well at .317 so he should have some positive regression heading his way. So far, so good right? Nothing that makes you want to invest heavily in him but nothing that’s telling you to run away either. Let’s look at the splits. He’s interesting against lefties. The 5.11 ERA is far from ideal but the 3.95 xFIP suggests it’s not as bad as it seems. His strikeout rate also goes way up to 26.2% and he only allows a .318 wOBA. There is some home run danger here, however, as he allows 41.5% fly balls and 44.1% hard contact but the BABIP is very high at .323 so hopefully we’ll start to see those numbers come down. Freddie Freeman is one of the best players in baseball but you can’t argue that these numbers for Wheeler against lefties present a challenge. When facing right-handed batters, Wheeler has a 4.08 xFIP with 20% strikeouts. The home run threat softens as he's getting 51.3% groundballs while allowing just 23% hard contact. He still has a high BABIP of .314. I’m a bit surprised by how much I like Wheeler’s numbers. His ability to limit damage and eat up some innings is definitely visible. The downside is he doesn’t have as much strikeout upside as we’d like but it’s not horrible, especially against lefties. Further supporting the argument for him is his 21.7% soft contact rate, 84.9 mph average exit velocity, an average distance of 190.8 feet, and only one barreled ball in the past month. These are some of the best numbers in the league over that span.  He’s an underdog in this spot but there’s a lot going for him and I think he flies WAY under the radar tonight. Look at the other options in this price range today. Jake Odorizzi, who is historically a reverse splits pitcher taking on a very right-handed heavy Detroit team, Trevor Williams against an Arizona team that’s on fire right now, Tanner Roark against the Yankees, or Daniel Mengden who has only a 16% strikeout rate and is facing the Astros today.  

Caleb Ferguson, LAD (vs. TEX) (DK: $6.1K, FD: $5.5K)

Here is my wildcard of the day. Ferguson will be called up this afternoon to make the start against the Rangers. He got shelled in his major league debut but he’s super young and I’m sure he was nervous as hell. I’m not going to let a one-game sample divert my attention from some of the really strong numbers he’s posted in the minors the last couple of seasons. Before we even get into that though, this is actually a great matchup. He’s taking on a Texas Rangers team that is one of the worst offenses in baseball and have been playing at home for the past week in 90+ degree weather. Now they get a huge negative park shift on the road in Los Angeles with significantly less favorable hitting weather. Texas has some power but it should be diminished in this hitting environment and they strikeout 24.3% of the time to left-handed pitching. Last season, in Single-A, Ferguson was 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA and a 26.6% strikeout rate. This season, in Double-A and Triple-A, the strikeout rate is climbing to 28.7%. He has the upside to put up a solid fantasy outing. The concern I’m seeing is a very high flyball rate (50%) and walk rate (nearly 20%). Both of those could definitely get him into trouble with some of the power the Rangers have. This is far from a ringing endorsement, but he’s an unproven 21-year-old kid with some serious strikeout potential and I think we can use him in tournaments to exploit this Rangers offense who he is catching at the perfect time. As I said, value is really lacking today in the pitching department and, personally, I’d rather take a couple of shots here at his very cheap price tag and load up on bats than go with someone else in that mid-range, even if they have more experience at this level.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• LA Dodgers (vs. Bartolo Colon): Colon is a low strikeout pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact to both sides of the plate. To be exact he has a 14.4% strikeout rate with 41.5% hard contact to left-handed batters and a 16.4% strikeout rate and 46.4% hard contact to right-handed batters. The Dodgers have a team .185 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. In fact, every member of our projected lineup except for Logan Forsythe has a .200 ISO or better against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers do not have an implied total yet (I don’t think they’ve made Caleb Ferguson official so there’s no line available) but I’m anticipating they will be up there in the top three for implied runs once it gets released. The Dodgers are very inexpensive as well which is key given that we’ll need to pay up at pitcher today.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. David Hess): The Red Sox were shut down by Dylan Bundy last night but I like them to bounce right back today against the rookie Hess. He’s a fly ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly park against the best lineup in baseball (especially now that Mookie is back). The Red Sox have a .214 ISO, .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Hess throws his fastball 62.2% of the time to left-handed batters and allows a .321 ISO and .458 wOBA. This puts Benintendi (.204 xISO against fastballs), Moreland (.271 .xISO against fastballs) and even Jackie Bradley Jr. (.255 xISO against fastballs) on the radar (wrap around stack anyone?). Hess throws his slider 41.2% of the time to right-handed batters and JD Martinez has a .338 xISO against that pitch. Fire up Boston today.

• Cincinnati Reds (vs. Ian Kennedy): Kennedy has been one of my favorite pitchers to stack against this year and I don’t think I’m stopping today. He has a 4.44 SIERA, 1.64 WHIP and is allowing 40.3% hard contact this season. He’s especially bad to left-handed batters where he allows a 46.4% fly ball rate, .222 ISO, .358 wOBA, and 41.9% hard contact. Schebler (.230 ISO vs. RHP), Votto (.238 ISO vs. RHP), and Gennett (.191 ISO vs. RHP) are the top of my list with Suarez, Winkler, and Duvall in the mix as well. I’d even add Tucker Barnhart who doesn’t have great power (.117 ISO against right-handed pitching) but he mashes fastballs (.190 ISO, .205 xISO) which Kennedy is throwing 58% of the time to left-handed bats. Keep in mind it will also be 92 degrees at this game today.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. James Shields): I have had ZERO luck stacking against Shields this season. Every time I’ve done it Shields has thrown a complete gem. So, based on this recommendation, you should probably load up on Shields tonight (please don’t do that). In all seriousness, despite a couple of outstanding performances this season, there is nothing in the numbers that tell us we should be afraid to stack against this guy (maybe he should sign with the Marlins then we’d have a team full of people I can’t figure out and I could just fade them all together every night). Shields has a miserable 5.06 SIERA, 16.4% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate, and allows 42.2% fly balls and 32.6% hard contact. The Indians have a .194 ISO and 39.1% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this year. I’m going to keep going back to this well. It’s going to hit sooner rather than later.

• Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Tyler Chatwood): Chatwood is another guy that I’ve stacked against quite a bit this season and it hasn’t quite worked out just yet but I’m confident that day is coming. He has a 3.86 ERA but a 6.19 SIERA! That’s the largest gap between ERA and SIERA of any pitcher in baseball that I've seen. He also has an awful 20.7% walk rate (higher than his 19.6% strikeout rate) and a 1.78 WHIP (highest on the slate). How this guy has somehow managed to have a 3-4 record with that ERA has me dumbfounded, but his luck is going to run out and I want to be on the other side when it happens. The Brewers bats are hot right now, they had a monster weekend in Philadelphia scoring 12 runs in two of the three games. I like almost this entire lineup (1-7) assuming Erik Kratz gets another start at catcher. He’s been on fire in his limited playing time and the beat writers are reporting the Brewers' staff is taking notice. I think he’s going to earn more.

• New York Mets (vs. Mike Foltynewicz): Folty is one of the top projected pitchers (and one of the most expensive on the board). He has a history of struggling with left-handed batters, which the Mets have plenty of. If this were last season I’d be all over this spot, but he’s actually been significantly better this season. Last year, against left-handed bats, he had a 5.34 xFIP and a below average 18.9% strikeout rate while allowing a .375 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 33.1% hard contact. This season, still against lefties, he has a 3.93 xFIP, with 28.9% strikeouts while only allowing a .302 wOBA. So, which version of this guy are you going to trust? The Mets will roll out at least four left-handed batters each with a .197 ISO or better plus Todd Frazier who is always a threat to go yard. Vegas is giving the 2018 version of Foltynewicz a lot of respect, with the Mets having one of the lowest implied point totals on the board. I think this is a good spot to take a stand against Vegas in some large field GPPs and hope the old Folty shows up and gets ruined by the left-handed power in this Mets’ lineup.

The Bullpen

• I only talked about the Reds but you can absolutely make a case for the Royals against Sal Romano today. They don't have as much power as Cincy does but if they can get to Romano they'll get to face a Reds bullpen with a 4.19 xFIP and allowing 37.8% hard contact. This game should be high scoring on both sides. 

• The White Sox against Plutko is interesting. Plutko is being called up to make the start today. He's been inconsistent when he's been in the majors this year, and it's not out of the question he gets blown up in this spot.  He would be followed by the awful Cleveland bullpen and their 5.72 ERA and 36.8% hard contact rate.

• I considered stacking against Buchholz but he's pitching better this season than he has in past years. It's still a small sample and I think things could go south for him in a hurry but even if that happens today he'll be backed up by an Arizona bullpen that has a 2.53 ERA (3.69 SIERA), 21.6% strikeout rate, and 50% groundball rate

• The downside of the Brewers stack is if they do get to Chatwood they'll then have to face a Cubs bullpen that has a 3.77 SIERA and 24.9% strikeout rate while allowing just 29.5% hard contact. You'd need your Brewers stack to meet your expectations while Chatwood is still on the hill because it will get more difficult after he gets the hook.

This should be a good tournament slate. It will be really interesting to see how the rest of the field handles pitching. Wheeler and maybe a couple of deep shots on Ferguson are the only value you guys I’m willing to have any exposure to today. I’m curious if people try to force in some of these other mid-tier options to make their lineups work. Ideally, I want to pay up at both pitcher spots if there is enough value to make the bats work. A lot of my final decisions will probably come down to how lineup construction goes once we get some posted lineups. As far as offense, I really like the Reds today against Kennedy and then potentially the Royals bullpen, and I want to be on Milwaukee and Cleveland as I think both of their opposing pitchers are due for a disappointing performance. The Dodgers are likely going to be chalky, as they have a great matchup and they are relatively inexpensive, which will make it easier to pay up at pitching. That makes me want to pivot away from them in tournaments but I will have heavy exposure to them in cash games today.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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