Welcome back! Hope everyone had a great weekend and I’m glad the NBA Finals was finally put out of its misery so we can just focus on baseball for a little while. After a week of what I considered to be some of the worst slates we had seen all season, we kick things off this week with a good (not great) slate that’s definitely an improvement over what we had last Monday. There are eight games today and there are enough usable arms to make things interesting. As far as the weather is concerned, most of these games are indoors so there’s not a whole lot we need to think about. It’s very hot in St.Louis, around 90 degrees so we can give a little boost to the hitters there. Nothing to worry about in terms of rain or wind in any of the outdoor games. Overall, it should be relatively quiet on the weather front right up until lock. No need for a long introduction today, let's jump right in and see how this slate breaks out.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. PIT) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $9.3K)

The initial price tag for Corbin, particularly on DraftKings, is a little hard to swallow. But, when you start to look at his numbers it becomes less and less of an issue. He’s having an outstanding season so far, with a 6-2 record, 2.87 ERA, and 105 strikeouts to only 22 walks in 81 innings pitched. The ERA is more impressive when you see his SIERA is actually better at 2.78. He has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at a massive 32.7% with 13.8% swinging strikes. The Pirates have a low strikeout rate at only 19.8% to left-handed pitching, but with Corbin’s strikeout abilities, this is less of a concern for me than it normally would be. They’ve got some decent power with a team .175 ISO, .326 wOBA, and 105 wRC+ but they only have a 27.9% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Corbin uses his slider most often and outside of Sterling Marte (who is currently on the disabled list) nobody on this team has very impressive numbers against that pitch type this season. Looking at splits, Austin Meadows and Corey Dickerson are the biggest bats we need to be concerned about, but the lefty on lefty matchup really decreases their upside. Corbin has a 3.18 xFIP, 30.9% strikeout rate while creating 51.4% groundballs and only allowing a .301 wOBA to left-handed batters. Without Marte, this team doesn’t have a whole lot of power bats from the right side (I’m actually surprised by their numbers against left-handed pitching). Josh Bell is a switch hitter, so he’s someone to watch and Francisco Cervelli is one of the better hitting catchers in the league, but there’s no guarantee he even plays today after leaving Saturday’s game early to be evaluated for a concussion. Regardless of the lack of right-handed bats, Corbin has even better numbers against righties this season with a 2.51 xFIP, 33.2% strikeout rate and only allowing a .241 wOBA. Now, all of this sounds a bit too good to be true, right? There are some red flags we need to consider here as well. For starters, the BABIP is low right now at only .249 and he’s allowing above average hard-contact at 40.8%. The current Pirates lineup is batting .390 against him in 31 at-bats. But, that’s a small sample, and they haven’t faced him this season. When we look at Corbin’s numbers from last year he had just a 4.12 SIERA and only 21.6% strikeout rate. He’s drastically better this year compared to last, so I would expect that the Pirates would have had more success off of him previously. That doesn’t automatically translate to more success again this season. He’s a -145 favorite and, because of his price on DraftKings, I think he’s a very sneaky option for tonight in tournaments.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (@MIA) (DK: $10.4K, FD: $8.8K)

I went on a rant last week about how difficult it has been to roster pitchers against the Marlins and then here I am, three days later, going right back to the well. Part of me can’t help but feel like this is a trap but it’s difficult to argue with the numbers and this really does feel like the safest place on the board tonight. His first start back was solid, scattering eight hits with only two earned runs and getting the quality start despite taking the loss in a 3-2 game. He forced 61.9% groundballs while only allowing 19% hard contact and an aEV of just 81.6 mph. He only threw 82 pitches in that game but I know he was on a “soft” limit of about 90. I’m not seeing anything about restrictions for this start today. Obviously, since he’s only had one start this season we’ll need to look at last year’s numbers. He had a 3.94 SIERA with 22.4% strikeouts and a 10.3% swinging strikeout rate and only 4.4% walks. He gets to face the Marlins today, who have solid plate discipline with a 10.1% walk rate and a 20.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, but just a .123 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. Factoring in the splits, Bumgarner is fairly even to both sides of the plate. He had a 4.19 xFIP and only 19.2% strikeout rate to left-handed batters but he only allowed a .237 wOBA and 29.3% hard contact rate last season. Against right-handed batters, he had a 4.05 xFIP with 23.1% strikeouts while only allowing a .308 wOBA. He gave up a bit more hard contact to righties at 36.2%. There’s nothing in this matchup that really spells trouble, and while I don’t think we are keeping Bumgarner in the elite category anymore, he’s certainly still an above average pitcher. He’s a -165 favorite in a very pitcher-friendly park today. I like him for cash games and you can consider him for tournaments, though I’m expecting he’ll be fairly popular, which would make me want to pivot to other options instead.

Value Pitchers

Joe Musgrove, PIT (@ARI) (DK: $8.5K, FD $7.5K)

The Diamondbacks are coming off a monster weekend sweep of the Colorado Rockies but they were playing at Coors Field, in over 90-degree weather (it almost hit 100 degrees on Saturday) and the winds were blowing out in two of the three games. You could roll out the farm league affiliate of any team in baseball to play at Coors Field in those conditions and they would put up similar runs to what Arizona did this weekend. This is a huge letdown spot, going back home, to a park that is much less hitter-friendly than it used to be. Musgrove is off to a great start in his Pirates career with a 3.88 SIERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, and 10.4% swinging strike rate. He’s forcing 46.4% groundballs and only allowing 28.6% hard contact so far this season. In the last month, he’s only allowing an 87.8 mph average exit velocity, an average distance of 195.7 feet, and just two barreled balls. He’s been extremely good against right-handed hitters with a 3.25 xFIP, 22.5% strikeout rate and only 4.1% walks. His groundball rate goes up against righties to 52.8% and he’s allowing just a .282 wOBA and 22.2% hard contact rate despite a BABIP that is actually above average at .314. I’m a little nervous about left-handed batters, where his numbers are definitely not as strong. The xFIP goes up to 4.84, the walk rate increases to 10.3%, and the hard contact is at 40%. Jake Lamb and Daniel Descalso, in particular, could exploit his weakness here. But despite having some seemingly strong left-handed batters, Arizona is one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching with just a .152 ISO, .286 wOBA, and 77 wRC+. They also strikeout 25.1% of the time which is the second highest rate of any team on this slate today. I can’t use Musgrove in cash, the numbers against lefties make him too risky for that, in my opinion, but I love him as a tournament option today, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Sam Gaviglio, TOR (@TB) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.3K)

Gaviglio is a player I’ve yet to roster this season but he’s been on my radar for the past few weeks and this is finally a spot where I’m planning to pull the trigger. He has an impressive 3.54 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate. He’s forcing 54.4% groundballs while only allowing a 28.8% hard contact rate. He’ll face the Rays today who have pretty average numbers against right-handed pitching, including a 21.7% strikeout rate, .317 wOBA, and 102 wRC+. They lack power, however, with just a .135 team ISO. Where things get a little sketchy is when you look at Gaviglio’s splits. We’ll start with the bad news, against left-handed batters, his xFIP is over two runs more than his ERA at 4.58, with only a 14% strikeout rate. But, the good news is he still allows 47.5% groundballs, a .273 wOBA, and best of all is he’ll only face two or maybe three right-handed bats today depending on the lineup. What I like about Gaviglio so much in this spot is how he does against right-handed bats, since he’ll face so many today. In this situation, he has an outstanding 2.89 xFIP and 29.7% strikeout rate with a 61.5% groundball rate. He’s only allowing a .264 wOBA and 25% hard contact rate to right-handed batters so far this season. The matchup really lines up well with his strengths and he even gets a nice park shift going to Tropicana Field today. I love him for tournaments and, because of the matchup, I even think you can consider him as your SP2 on DraftKings in cash games today.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Lucas Giolito): The Indians have the highest implied total on the board today and for good reason. Giolito is…well…let’s just say he’s not having a good season. He has a 7.08 ERA and a 6.35 SIERA. He walks more batters (13.8%) than he strikes out (11%). His WHIP is perfect stacking material at 1.66. He throws his fastball over 50% of the time to both sides of the plate and allows a .273 ISO (.267 xISO) to left-handed batters and a .210 ISO (.227 xISO) to right-handed batters. Cleveland absolutely crushes fastballs including Lindor (.416 xwOBA, .222 xISO), Kipnis (.340 xwOBA, .181 xISO), Ramirez (.478 xwOBA, .363 xISO), Brantley (.524 xwOBA, .456 xISO), and Encarnacion (.434 xwOBA, .387 xISO). Once they make quick work of Giolito today they’ll get a White Sox bullpen that is middle of the pack at best with a 4.14 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. Steven Wright): The Orioles are either going to win someone all the money tonight or they will crash and burn. They are a boom or bust type of team with a lot of talent, but you just never know which team is going to show up on any given night. This will be exaggerated against the knuckleball tonight, which is a very difficult pitch to predict. Wright threw a gem in his first start of the season but I’m not ready to buy in after a one-game sample size. Plus, Baltimore has some good history against him. The sample sizes are still on the smaller side but Jones (17 plate appearances, .378 wOBA, .400 ISO), Trumbo (13 plate appearances, .358 wOBA), Schoop (12 plate appearances, .698 wOBA, .818 ISO) and Chris Davis (15 plate appearances, .321 wOBA, and .286 ISO) all have solid numbers against Wright. Even Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia have had success in very limited sample sizes. Mancini is 2-5 with 2 home runs and Valencia is 1-4 with a home run himself against Wright. In fact, the only member of the Orioles who has faced Wright before and doesn’t have a good history against him is Manny Machado. That could make for an interesting tournament stack if you use Baltimore but leave out Machado. It’s unlikely others will do that and it’s very affordable to help you fit in the Indians.

• San Francisco Giants (vs. Wei-Yin Chen): The Giants, especially with Brandon Belt currently on the shelf, will go very right-handed heavy today, which is very bad news for Chen. Versus right-handed batters this season he has a 5.13 ERA and an even worse 6.84 xFIP with only 11.9% strikeouts and 14.3% walks. His WHIP is 1.78 and he allows 50% fly balls and a .392 wOBA. Chen throws his fastball over 50% of the time to both sides of the plate and every member of the Giants outside of Joe Panik hits that pitch type extremely well. Posey (who we already talked about), McCutchen (.228 xISO, .464 xwOBA vs fastballs), Longoria (.209 xISO, .419 xwOBA vs fastballs), and Hernandez (.226 xISO, .410 xwOBA vs fastballs) are my favorite options here. Remember, if they can make quick work of Chen, they get to face a Marlins bullpen that has a 5.41 ERA, 10.7% walk rate and allows 39.2% hard contact.

• Chicago White Sox (vs. Carlos Carrasco): Trying to go off the board here as it’s a smaller slate tonight and ownership will be important. Carrasco is one of those boom or bust pitchers who is either lights out or gets completely blown up. It’s difficult to know for sure which guy is going to show up on any given night. The White Sox have an implied total today that is middle of the pack and have four players in their projected starting lineup with a .200 ISO or better against right-handed pitching. In the past month, Carrasco has allowed only 15.7% soft contact, an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, an average distance of 211.8 feet and seven barreled balls. I think he’ll be a popular play today, people are going to see his results against the White Sox in the past, but I’m not putting much stock into those since they are from last season. He has a higher SIERA, lower strikeout rate, lower swinging strike rate, lower groundball rate, and allows more hard contact this season compared to last season. Carrasco is not a guy I have enough confidence in that I'd roster if he’s going to be popular. So, if that turns out to be the case I will gladly play some Chicago stacks against him and hope the variance falls in my favor. Even better is if the White Sox do get to the Indians bullpen early, this is where your stack would really pay off. Cleveland has the worst bullpen in baseball right now with a 5.82 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, a 17.1% HR/FB, and 37% hard contact.

• San Diego Padres (vs. Jack Flaherty): This is similar to the White Sox vs. Carrasco take but even more sneaky. Flaherty will get a lot of love today facing the Padres who have the lowest implied total on the board, but outside of one really good start against the Phillies back on May 20th, he’s been mediocre this season at best and pretty awful in his last two outings in which he put up 10 DraftKings points against the Pirates and 9 DraftKings points against the Marlins. In the last month, Flaherty has allowed only 18% soft contact, and average exit velocity of 88 mph, an average distance of 212.1 feet, and four-barreled balls. San Diego has the ability to roll out 4-5 left-handed bats, which is where Flaherty really struggles with just a 4.43 xFIP, 20% strikeout rate, nearly 10% walks, a 1.47 WHIP, and 43.4% hard contact. I would love San Diego more if Franchy Cordero was not on the disabled list right now, and honestly, I don’t think you need to go here today. The point is more about the fact that I don’t like Flaherty as much as everyone else is going to. If you are playing a large field multi-entry GPP you could roll out some Padres stacks as a leverage if Flaherty is going to be popular.

The Bullpen

• Although I think the Cubs are very capable of getting to Junior Guerra I'm hesitant to roster them as they'd have to face the Milwaukee bullpen who is currently the best group in the majors with a 2.54 ERA (3.13 SIERA), 28.6% strikeout rate, and 13% swinging strike rate.

• The Angels are appealing on paper as a very right-handed heavy team facing a left-handed pitcher but LeBlanc has limited his opponents so far this season allowing just a 27.6% hard contact rate and he'll be followed by a very strong Seattle bullpen.

• The Red Sox are always in play against a right-handed pitcher but Dylan Bundy has been really good this season outside of that one outing against the Kansas City Royals that he'll never be able to live down. But, if Boston can get the bats going early, they'd be doing themselves a favor with increased opportunities against the Baltimore bullpen and their 4.25 SIERA and only 20.3% strikeout rate.

There’s really not a pitcher that jumps off the page at me today. There are certainly usable options and some that are clearly better than others, but nobody is in that elite category and you could really make a case for both sides of any matchup. Bumgarner is the top option for cash games even though Miami continues to make me nervous for reasons I can’t quite explain. I’m not as high on Flaherty or Carrasco, despite being big favorites today, and can definitely see myself pivoting to Patrick Corbin for a little more money and a lot less ownership. As far as bats go, Cleveland is far and away my favorite team of the day and I will do my best to have as much exposure to them as I can. The problem is they are very expensive, which can make stacking a challenge. Baltimore is intriguing given their success, though a small sample size, against Steven Wright. I really like them as a tournament option today.

As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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