Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

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Wild night in baseball yesterday! About fifteen minutes after lock I checked my phone and saw that Dylan Bundy had been replaced, in the first inning, without recording a single out after giving up four home runs and seven earned runs! The Royals went on to score ten runs in the first inning and 15 runs in the game. If you rostered Bundy last night, don’t beat yourself up. There was nothing in the numbers that would indicate something like that would happen. I saw some sharp players, including a former millionaire maker winner who posted a picture of Bundy’s name with the lock button next to it, that were on him yesterday. The Royals just came out swinging and caught everyone by surprise. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, while Bundy was getting chased in the first inning, James Paxton was busy throwing a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays. Congratulations to him! In the final at-bat, against Josh Donaldson, Paxton threw three straight fastballs of 98, 100, and 99 mph. You think he wanted to get that out? Today, we have a split slate. DraftKings has a six-game early slate starting at 1:10 pm EST and FanDuel has a very strange four-game early slate that starts at 12:35 pm EST. For the purposes of this article, we will focus on the seven-game main slates on both sites tonight, since that’s where all the big money tournaments are anyway. There are no stud pitchers tonight but there are some decent options when we do a deeper dive in the numbers.  Should also be a good night for some stacking as well! Let’s jump in and see what we can figure out.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. LAD) (DK: $13.4K, FD: $10K)

If you’re playing cash games today this is more than likely where you’ll want to wind up.  Corbin enters this game as a slight underdog at +117. He has an average SIERA at 4.04 but it is slightly below his ERA of 4.25 so that’s some good news. He also forces 51.8% groundballs with a 10.9% swinging strike rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate. The Dodgers definitely have some lefty mashers, but without both Justin Turner and Corey Seager right now they are more thin than usual on the offensive side. Currently, they have a .140 ISO, .293 wOBA, and just an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They also strikeout 22.1% of the time to left-handed pitching. To left-handed batters, Corbin has an excellent 54.1% groundball rate and 29.7% strikeout rate while allowing just a .289 wOBA. Guys like Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson should have trouble today. To right-handed batters, the strikeout rate comes down to 19.4% but the groundball rate is still up at 51.3%. The issue here is the .343 wOBA and 35.6% hard contact. If he can find his way past a few of the right-handed bats he should be in line for a solid outing tonight. The floor is high for Corbin but I do think he’s overpriced so I would only really consider him in cash. In tournaments, I think there are some better spots for the money, especially on DraftKings at $13.4K.  He'll have a hard time exceeding value.     

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (@SD) (DK: $11.4K, FD: $9K)

Gonzalez is a -125 favorite against the strikeout-heavy Padres on the road in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. We’ll start with the good. He has an above average groundball rate at 47.1% and strikeout rate at 22.8%. To left-handed batters, he has a 53.4% groundball rate with 22.3% strikeouts while allowing a .289 wOBA and a very impressive 25.5% hard contact rate. To right-handed batters, he has a lower but still above average 22.9% strikeout rate with a 45.2% groundball rate while allowing just a .310 wOBA. The other good news is he's facing a strikeout happy San Diego team today who goes down 25.8% of the time to left-handed pitching. There’s plenty of room for upside here. Now, for the bad news. Gonzalez’s numbers indicate someone who’s been a bit more lucky than good. Dating back to last season he has a 3.58 ERA but a 4.16 SIERA. That gap has grown larger in 2018 with a current 2.85 ERA but a 4.31 SIERA. The regression train could be on its way. The other thing that stood out to me is the power the Padres have against left-handed pitching with a .184 ISO and 38% hard contact. You aren’t going to get scared off of a matchup against San Diego but just be aware it’s not out of the question they put up some runs and maybe a long ball in this spot.  Any other night Gonzalez would be tournament only but given the weaker pitching options today I think you could make a case for him in cash and hope the Padres bats are asleep tonight.

Value Pitchers

Julio Teheran, ATL (@TB) (DK: $8.9K, FD: $7.4K)

This has been a thing for a couple of years now but for whatever reason, Julio Teheran is much better on the road than he is at home. In his last 110.2 innings pitched on the road he has a 3.09 ERA. In his last 114.2 innings pitched at home, he has a 5.57 ERA. Today, the Braves are in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field for a matchup with the Rays who struggle a lot with right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has a 27.7% strikeout rate, the highest on this slate, to right-handed pitching. They have just a .123 ISO, .292 wOBA, and an 87 wRC+. Teheran has average strikeout numbers with a 10.1% swinging strike and 20.5% strikeout rate. Left-handed batters are where he has big trouble with an ugly 5.53 xFIP, 16.7% strikeout rate, 43.4% fly ball rate and 35.3% hard contact rate. But, the Rays don’t have much for power left-handed bats (or left-handed bats at all) outside of Brad Miller. Teheran is much better against right-handed bats with a 3.62 xFIP and 24.4% strikeout rate while allowing only a .281 wOBA and 28.5% hard contact. Honestly, I think you can make the argument for Teheran in cash today given the matchup. He’s firmly on the SP2 radar for DraftKings. We’ll see how things shake out throughout the day but he’s currently shaping up to be my highest owned pitcher.

Joey Lucchesi, SD (vs. WAS) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8K)

I never like rostering a pitcher against the Nationals but you can definitely make a case for Lucchesi today in tournaments on this smaller slate. I would expect most of the field feeling the same way about avoiding the Nationals which could mean very low ownership for Lucchesi. There are a few things working in his favor today. For starters, Washington is much more threatening against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. Against southpaws, they have a 23.2% strikeout rate, .148 ISO, .303 wOBA, and an 88 wRC+. Average numbers at best. This game is also at Petco Park which only further depresses the Nats possible power. Lucchesi, meanwhile, has an impressive line including a 3.72 SIERA, 11% swinging strike rate, and a 26.3% strikeout rate. He forces 60% groundballs and allows only 25% hard contact to left-handed batters. Harper is obviously always a threat but he’ll need to work for it tonight. Against right-hand batters, he still has above average strikeouts at 23.7% but the groundball rate comes all the way down to 37.7% and the hard contact goes up to 40.5%. Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon, who returned from the DL this week and is a solid lefty crusher, are all threats in this spot. This is by no means safe, but Lucchesi has the stuff to minimize damage and pick up some extra strikeouts along the way. If the field is viewing the Nationals as they typically would, a team with a ton of offensive firepower, you could roll the dice in tournaments as a leverage play and hope variance falls on your side.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• New York Yankees (vs. Rick Porcello): I was actually hoping it would be David Price tonight but he’s been scratched and replaced by the much better Rick Porcello. It’s a downgrade to the Yankees but not enough to scare me away from a stack on this small slate. My hope is that since Porcello is one of the better pitchers on the slate, people might stay away, though the Yankees have the highest implied total of the night at 4.93 (keep an eye on this as it may have started this high when Price was the probable pitcher). Porcello can be prone to the long ball, particularly against left-handed batters where he allows a 43.1% fly ball rate and 36.2% hard contact. Didi Gregorius is in a great spot tonight and I think all Yankees stacks start with him. Porcello is much better against right-handed bats but that doesn’t mean Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez can’t still do some damage.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. Eric Skoglund): Revenge game perhaps? The Orioles were embarrassed last night and are just not good at baseball right now but they did get the bats going yesterday (too little too late) eventually scoring seven runs (including a few in the bottom of the ninth). They also got Jonathan Schoop back who knocked in two RBIs of his own and could provide the spark this offense desperately needs. Perhaps they can build on that momentum today against Skoglund. The game is at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Skoglund profiles as a low strikeout (7.7% swinging strikes) with high walks (10%) and a very high WHIP of 1.78. Perfect stacking material. He allows 41.2% fly balls, a .371 wOBA and 36.8% hard contact to left-handed bats. Chris Davis, who hit a bomb last night, is on the tournament radar. To right-handed batters, Skoglund allows a .395 wOBA and 44.1% hard contact. Manny Machado should (hopefully) do something big tonight but he’s ice cold right now. Great night to jump on board at hopefully low ownership in tournaments.

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Ryan Yarbrough): I’m surprised the Braves have one of the lowest implied totals of the day against the left-hander. Admittedly, he’s off to a strong start this season, but the Braves are excellent against left-handed pitching with a .182 ISO, .358 wOBA, and 129 wRC+. Yarbrough is an extreme fly ball pitcher at 52.1%, with a low 6.2% strikeout rate and high 9.7% walk rate. Two things really stand out in Yarbrough’s numbers. First, he’s only allowing 25.4% hard contact. This would explain why his HR/FB rate is just 5.4% despite allowing over 50% fly balls. These numbers, however, are not sustainable as evidenced by the second number that is standing out to me. He has a super low .203 BABIP. It would seem he’s been more lucky than good in his strong start this season. There’s no guarantee that luck doesn’t continue tonight but I’ll likely be heavy on the Braves today.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Masahiro Tanaka): This is not a good matchup. Tanaka is a good pitcher with just a 3.63 SIERA to go along with a 13.1% swinging strike rate and a 23.3% strikeout rate.  It’s likely the Red Sox go overlooked as Tanaka is one of the better arms available today. Anytime the Sox are going to be low owned, even in a bad matchup, you have to have interest in tournaments. They have impressive numbers against right-handed pitching including a very low 17.4% strikeout rate and a very high .209 ISO and .362 wOBA. This is a lineup that can do damage in any spot and this is a great hitter’s park in Yankee Stadium. I’ll have shares tonight if it seems like the field is planning to avoid them.

• Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Wade LeBlanc): Toronto is popping up all over the daily matchup chart today with several players in good spots. They’ll be motivated today after being no-hit last night. Donaldson (.318 ISO), Smoak (.199 ISO), Hernandez (.217 ISO), and Pearce (.231 ISO) all hit left-handed pitching very well. The Blue Jays have the 4th highest implied total on the main slate today at 4.62. They will be a team I have heavy exposure to today.

• Kansas City Royals (vs. Andrew Cashner): I think the answer is really dependent on how much ownership they will have. The Royals put up 15 runs last night which means they are more than capable of having a big game against the much worse Andrew Cashner. Plus, with the bullpen having to be brought in during the first inning with zero outs yesterday the Orioles will be forced to keep Cashner out there for at least six innings even if he’s not doing well. The problem is the Royals will be popular after that thrashing they handed out last night. This makes me want to stay away. A popular Royals stack is never a good idea as the numbers really indicate a team that just got lucky last night. They have very low .119 ISO, .298 wOBA, and 83 wRC+. These are not inspiring numbers. The only thing that does stand out is their strikeout rate of just 16.6%. All that does is make me not want to roster Andrew Cashner which I wouldn’t do anyway. I’m going to wait and see on this one but it’s going to be a fade if these guys turn into the chalk stack of the night.        

Another interesting slate.  When I first saw the list of probable pitchers I was instantly thinking it might be a good night to take off.  But, as I dove into the numbers a bit more I think there are several good options you could go with today.  I gave long looks to both Alex Wood and Nick Pivetta as well.  They didn't end up making the article but I think they are both options so I'd take a few minutes to research them if you can.  For stacks, I'll be watching ownership today before I decide where I want to go.  Right now, I have a lot of interest in Atlanta, Toronto, and Baltimore but depending on where the chalk lands will ultimately determine what I do.  As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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