Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

Congratulations to the winners of Monday's Freeroll:

• 1st: gcsimonsays: 198.20

• 2nd: Elard17: 188.85

• 3rd: WhiteLillyWaters: 185.35

We'll continue to host freerolls during the week throughout MLB season on DraftKings.  Here's the link for today's contest. 

• 1st: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

DM us on Twitter tomorrow @LineStarApp with your winning lineup!

We’ve got fourteen games on this Tuesday slate and amazingly there is very little weather that needs to be discussed. There isn’t a single threat of rain as of this writing and the only noteworthy weather topic is the heat in Texas where it will be over 90-degrees at first pitch. There’s some wind blowing in but remember this park was designed specifically to prevent the effects of the wind as it has a massive windscreen and is adjacent to a four-story office park. You can factor the wind in less as a result of this. This is also a Coors slate so keep that in mind. There’s a couple of solid pitchers on the hill in Colorado tonight so I don’t think you have to go there but anytime there is a game in Coors it’s always in play. We’ve got a lot of great pitching options tonight and quite a few stacking options tonight as well so let’s not waste any time and jump right in.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Corey Kluber, CLE (@MIL) (DK: $13.6K, FD: $11.4K)

Your top arm on the slate today is Corey Kluber who travels to hitter friendly Miller Park to take on the Brewers. The ballpark downgrade is about the only negative thing on the list for Kluber today. He’s tied for the largest favorite on the board at -200 against a Milwaukee team that strikes out 24% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .147 ISO and .306 wOBA. Kluber has a 3.09 SIERA just slightly above his excellent 2.68 ERA with a 13.7% swinging strike rate which is the highest on today’s slate. He has a .320 xFIP with a 27.8% strikeout rate while allowing only a .263 wOBA to left-handed batters. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.86 xFIP with a 31.6% strikeout rate to just a 4.7% walk rate while only allowing a .248 wOBA and just 27.8% hard contact. He’s got a high floor and a high ceiling, particularly today against a high strikeout team. You’re going to want exposure in both cash and tournaments today.

Before I get into the next recommendation I want to do a quick comparison of two players as I think people will likely come across this same decision today. Let’s take a look at some numbers.

Sorry if the text is a little small but I'll walk through it.  Pitcher #2 has a better ERA and SIERA while Pitcher #1 has a better GB/FB profile forcing 51.9% groundballs and just 28.7% fly balls. Pitcher #2 has an impressive 12.5% swinging strike rate and 27.1% strikeout rate while pitcher #1 has a sold 10.3% swinging strike rate and a 25.2% strikeout rate. They have nearly identical walk rates and pitcher #2 allows a little more hard contact at 32%. Right now, I’m leaning pitcher #2. Let’s look at their opponent data:

Pitcher #1 is facing a team that strikes out more against his handedness at 23.5% which helps even out his lower strikeout rate than pitcher #2. Pitcher #1 is also facing a team with a lower ISO at .132 compared to a .164 ISO for the opponent of pitcher #2. Both teams have similar wOBA and wRC+. What’s interesting though is the opponent of pitcher #1 has a high BABIP at .321 suggesting some negative regression is possible while pitcher #2’s opponent has a low .272 BABIP suggesting positive regression may be on the way. Things are pretty even now right? Maybe you’re leaning one way over the other slightly? Pitcher #1 is a heavy favorite at -200 at home today. Pitcher #2 is a slight favorite at -110 on the road today. Pitcher #1 is $900 less on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel. Figure it out? Pitcher #1 is Aaron Nola and pitcher #2 is James Paxton. I like both of these guys a lot and they catch my attention anytime they are on a slate. But when I do the side by side comparison like this I’m going with Nola today if having to choose between them. I could have gone either way based on the numbers with Paxton having slightly better individual numbers while Nola has the slightly better matchup today. Then you factor in Nola is less expensive, a heavy favorite, and at home and it makes the decision a bit easier.  

Value Pitchers

Mike Minor, TEX (vs DET) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.5K)

First thing we need to talk about here is the weather as it will be over 90 degrees once again in Texas today.  Minor is a comfortable -160 favorite today taking on a Detroit Tigers team that has mixed results against left-handed pitching. The power is down, presumably because they’ve been without Miguel Cabrera, as they have just a .138 ISO. The wOBA is solid at .330 and they have a 106 wRC+. The BABIP is high, however, at .323 which tells us they may have been getting a little lucky recently. The strikeout rate is also a bit lower than we’d like to see at just 18.6%. I’m viewing the Tigers as a team who is capable of putting up numbers but is equally capable of being shut down. Perfect for a tournament pitcher. Minor, meanwhile, has pretty impressive numbers. His SIERA is 3.48 which is the fifth lowest on this slate. Only Kluber, Paxton, McCullers, and Severino have a lower SIERA than Minor today. The difference? The cheapest player of that group on DraftKings is Severino at $10K. Minor is $6.3K on DraftKings today. Minor also has an outstanding 11.8% swinging strike rate at 26% strikeout rate which helps any concern about the Tigers being a low strikeout team. He’s particularly strong against left-handed bats with a 2.33 xFIP, 35% strikeout rate, and 54% groundball rate. He gets into a little trouble against right-handed bats with a much lower groundball rate of 36.5% and a still solid but not as strong 22.5% strikeout rate. A couple of the power right-handed bats could be an issue in the Tigers lineup today but no Miguel Cabrera helps us with that. Because the sample size on Minor is fairly small, and we know the Tigers can create some problems, the risk is increased here. I’m viewing Minor as a GPP option today and you could consider him as a SP2 on DraftKings in cash.

Danny Duffy, KC (@BAL) (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.8K)

Remember the days when we were paying nearly five figures to roster Duffy? Times have definitely changed but I like him as a sneaky tournament option today in a matchup with the Orioles who have struggled with left-handed pitching. Duffy has struggled so far this season but has a 3.96 SIERA over the last two seasons with an 11.8% swinging strike rate and 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s lights out against left-handed batters with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate while allowing just a .205 wOBA and 24% hard contact. Right-handed bats is where he can get into trouble so someone like Machado scares me though he’s been cold recently. Duffy’s strikeout rate drops to 22.3%, while allowing 42.2% fly balls and 36.3% hard contact. The Orioles have the fourth highest strikeout rate on the board today at 25.3% to left-handed pitching. They have a .162 ISO, .316 wOBA, and 96 wRC+. It’s possible they could chase Duffy with a few long balls, which he’s struggled with this season, but I’m leaning Duffy today based on the numbers as a value tournament pitcher that will leave you plenty of room to fit in the Coors bats.

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Colorado Rockies (vs Andrew Heaney): It’s a Coors slate so the two teams playing in Denver are automatically in play as stacking options. Heaney has an awful 6.21 ERA but his 3.67 SIERA and 12.8% swinging strike rate suggest some massive positive regression should be heading his way. Unfortunately, I don’t think that will happen tonight. The one place he really struggles is with fly balls (only 32.2% ground balls) and hard contact (43.1%) which will not serve him well in this park. Arenado and Story are the top options here and you can build around them with just about anyone. The right-handed bats are the priority.

• LA Angels (vs Jon Gray): Gray is a solid pitcher with a 3.70 SIERA, 24.3% strikeout rate while forcing 47.3% groundballs and just 29.3% hard contact. The Angels, however, have some bats that could do some serious damage and they don’t strikeout very often which will hurt Gray in this spot.  Everything starts with Trout here obviously but don't be afraid to mix and match both sides of the plate. 

• Cincinnati Reds (vs. Jason Vargas): I’m going right back to Cincinnati tonight. They came through for us with six runs last night and a couple of dingers and I would expect something similar this evening. Jason Vargas has been getting shelled all season and this is a terrible park downgrade for him. He’s equally bad to both sides of the plate so while I really like Suarez and Duvall tonight don’t be afraid to include the lefties like Votto, Winkler, and Schebler if he cracks the lineup.

• Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Lucas Giolito): The Pirates are not a team I typically associate with stacking but this is a great spot for them tonight. Giolito has a 5.35 SIERA with just a 16% strikeout rate and a 10.7% walk rate. The Pirates have some left-handed bats that can hit right-handed pitching well including Polanco, Bell, and Dickerson. Watch the lineup here! The Pirates called up Jose Osuna yesterday and he’s near minimum price on both sites. He’s not a lefty but he had a .269 ISO in Triple-A last season. This will be my top stack of the night if Osuna is in the lineup as his price will still allow us to either pay up at pitching or pair the Pirates with some Coors bats.

• New York Yankees (vs. Drew Pomeranz): There’s a lot of good spots for offense tonight. Anytime the Yankees face a left-handed pitcher at home I have interest. The trio of Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez are just a ridiculous combination for any left-handed pitcher to have to get through. Tonight, that victim will be Drew Pomeranz. He happens to be in the bottom 20% in average exit velocity and the bottom 5% in average distance over the last month. Neither of these things will help him tonight in Yankee Stadium. New York has the fifth highest implied total on the night at 4.83

Sleeper Stack:

• Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Sean Newcomb) and Atlanta Braves (vs. Blake Snell): These guys are playing each other tonight and I can’t wait to watch the game. That’s right, a game between the Braves and the Rays is the one I’m most excited about. Both of these pitchers have been really impressive this season. But, they are still young and prone to mistakes. Both the Rays and the Braves are in the top half of the league against left-handed pitching. Snell has a 3.63 ERA but a 4.46 SIERA suggesting some regression is coming. He also allows 11% walks which can always get you into trouble. Meanwhile, the Braves only strikeout 16.6% of the time to left-handed pitching with a .182 ISO and .358 wOBA. On the other side, Newcomb has a 4.08 ERA and a similar 4.43 SIERA and he too can also get himself into trouble with a 12% walk rate. The Rays are a higher strikeout team but they still have a .177 ISO and .349 wOBA to left-handed pitching this season. Of all the teams on the slate today, the Braves have the top wRC+ at 129 and the Rays have the third best at 122. It’s a bad park for hitters but I think both of these teams are sneaky if we believe the young guns (with promising futures) are due for a letdown performance. 

An interesting slate.  There are some good options to pay up at pitcher but then you'll have trouble fitting in the Coors bats.  But, with so many potential stacking options tonight do you really need Coors?  There's a definite argument for the fade tonight.  I'm likely going to mix in some Mike Minor with Coors stacks and then go up to Corey Kluber and pair him with some of the less expensive stacks.  I'm a big fan of the Pirates tonight and I really hope that Osuna get's the start.  As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

Catch us on LineStar MLB Chat and don't forget to enter the freeroll today!