Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

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• 1st: porkchopexpress71: 196.90

• 2nd: G.O.A.T: 180.65

• 3rd: IRhowie2: 179.50

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Welcome back! Crazy weekend in baseball! If you didn’t get a chance to watch at all this weekend we had multiple walk-off home runs including the Cardinals, Yankees, and Athletics. There was a 16 strikeout performance by Gerrit Cole on Friday night and a 15 strikeout performance by Max Scherzer yesterday. The Dodgers threw a rare combined no-hitter on Friday night with four different pitchers against the Padres in Mexico. Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw both landed on the DL while Mookie Betts left yesterday’s game early and is currently listed as day-to-day. Oh! I almost forgot! James Shields flirted with a no-hitter. Yes, you read that right. If you had a good week of DFS last week let’s see if we can build on that momentum. If you had a losing week let’s shake it off and see if we can get back on track. We start today with a small (at least by MLB standards) seven-game slate to ease us in. Nothing crazy from a weather perspective. Mostly mild temperatures and calm winds throughout the league. The one interesting spot is in Texas, where it will 92 degrees but it will also have winds blowing in at 10 miles per hour. Despite the small slate, there are still some decent pitching options to choose from and plenty to pick on. Pull up a chair, grab some coffee, and let’s get to work!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (@ SDP) (DK: $13.6K, FD: $10K)

Strasburg enters today’s game with an impressive 3.27 SIERA, 12.1% swinging strike rate, and 29.6% strikeout rate. He’s taking on a Padres team with the highest strikeout rate to right-handed pitching in the league at 28% and he’s doing this at Petco Park which is the second most friendly pitcher park in baseball.  I could honestly stop my analysis right there.  But, I won't.   The Padres have just a .125 ISO, .290 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Strasburg, meanwhile, allows only a .265 wOBA and 23.1% hard contact rate to left-handed batters to go with a 28.8% strikeout rate. He’s even better against right-handed batters with a 30.5% strikeout rate while allowing just a .269 wOBA. There’s very little reason not to go here in cash. You can make the ownership argument in tournaments to justify fading but even then I’m going to have a hard time not rostering him. He’s a heavy favorite (-159) and double-digit strikeouts are well within his range of outcomes in this matchup.

Kyle Hendricks, CHC (vs. MIA) (DK: $9.6K, FD: $7.9K)

One potential pivot option, even in cash, is Kyle Hendricks. He provides significant savings, especially on FanDuel where he’s under $8K. He’s in an excellent matchup today against a Miami Marlins team with a 24.3% strikeout rate, .097 ISO, .267 wOBA and just a 68 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Hendricks forces 49.5% ground balls and has a 22% strikeout rate. To left-handed batters, he has a 22.7% strikeout rate with 45.1% ground balls and only allowing a .293 wOBA. To right-handed batters, the ground balls go up even higher to 52.7% with a similar 21.4% strikeout rate while only allowing a .257 wOBA. He’s the biggest favorite on the board today at -240. There is some downside here though as well. For starters, the game is at Wrigley Field, even though the wind is not expected to be blowing out this is still a hitter’s park. Hendricks also just doesn’t have nearly the upside that Strasburg does. The floor is very high, but the lower strikeout rate (both Hendricks and his opponent) make the ceiling lower. I can see the argument in tournaments if you wanted to take the lower price and ownership and hope he gives you something close to the output of Strasburg with all the extra money to spend on bats. Just know this is risky.

Value Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija, SFG (@ PHI) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $6.9K)

His 4.47 ERA certainly leaves room for improvement but his 3.75 SIERA suggests he’s pitching better than what the results are indicating at the moment. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.54 xFIP, with 22% strikeouts while allowing 48.6% ground balls and just a .281 wOBA. Against left-handed batters is where he can get into a little trouble with a .332 wOBA and only 38.7% ground balls with a 31.1% hard contract rate. But he still has a solid 22.1% strikeout rate. The Phillies have a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching of 26.4% with just a .152 ISO, .311 wOBA, and 95 wRC+. He’s a bit too cheap in this spot, particularly on FanDuel, where he’s under $7K.

Michael Fulmer, DET (@ TEX) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.3K)

Personally, I think Fulmer is a bit overpriced compared to Jeff Samardjia or especially Kyle Hendricks on FanDuel. Either way, you can make a case for him as a mid-range option today. He forces 48.8% ground balls with a 10% swinging strike rate. To left-handed batters, he only allows a .291 wOBA with 46.5% ground balls. To right-handed batters, he allows a .281 wOBA with 51% ground balls and just 27.4% hard contact. His home run to fly ball rate is strong at just 8.6% to left-handed batters and 11.5% to right-handed batters. This should help in a more hitter-friendly ballpark today in the 90-degree heat (the wind will also be blowing in). The downside is his strikeouts are below average at 18.6% which limits his upside. The good news is the Rangers strikeout 25.9% of the time to right-handed pitching which should certainly help Fulmer’s ceiling. They also have just a .158 ISO, .303 wOBA, and 84 wRC+ to right-handed pitching. Fulmer should be able to pick up between 4-6 strikeouts and keep the runs low setting himself up for a possible quality start and the win today.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Detroit Tigers (vs. Matt Moore): This one is interesting. The Tigers have the highest implied total on the slate currently at 4.78 but they also have some injury news that will need to be watched. We already know Miguel Cabrera landed on the DL. Nick Castellanos missed some time over the weekend with the flu as well. If Castellanos plays he’s one of my favorite bats on this slate and would be the core of any Tigers stacks. If he misses, I’m less interested in the stack here but only a little less interested. They are facing Matt Moore after all who’s been getting completely shelled. You could still make a case for Hicks, Jones, and McCann who all have some power against left-handed pitching.  They would also provide some value to help fit in Strasburg.

• Cincinnati Reds (vs. PJ Conlon): Conlon will make his major league debut today in place of the injured Jacob deGrom. What an upgrade for the Reds! Conlon has below average numbers across the board in the minors including a 6.75 ERA and an 18.8% strikeout rate. He has a high WHIP of 1.58 which is always a number we want to pay attention to when choosing stacks. I love the right-handed bats for the Reds today including Duvall and Suarez. You can include the left-handed bats as well if you’re rolling out multiple combinations. Lefty on lefty is never ideal but I’m less worried looking at Conlon’s numbers. Votto, in particular, has pretty good power numbers against left-handed pitching and this is one of the best hitter’s ballparks in the league.

• New York Mets (vs. Homer Bailey): While the Reds are teeing off on PJ Conlon they’ll also be watching their own pitcher get crushed by the Mets bats. This should be a high scoring game for sure. Bailey has a 4.92 SIERA with just a 16.6% strikeout rate and 34% hard contact rate. Bailey is particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats with a 5.38 xFIP and just a 14.2% strikeout rate. I’m interested in anyone against Bailey but some of these power lefties on the Mets roster such as Bruce, Conforto, and Nimmo could really do some damage in this ballpark

• San Francisco Giants (vs. Zach Eflin): Watch out! The Giants swept the Braves over the weekend. The bats are hot right now and they shouldn’t slow down today against Zach Eflin. This is another massive park upgrade for the Giants with Citizens Bank Park being a top ten hitter’s stadium. Eflin has a less than impressive 5.19 SIERA with just a 12.2% strikeout rate. He allows 1.95 HR/9. He has a ton of trouble with left-handed batters allowing a .387 wOBA, 40% fly ball rate and 36% hard contact rate. Belt and Crawford are my favorite options. Eflin is better against right-handed batters but these guys are still in play today. The Giants have the seventh highest implied total on the board so they should be relatively sneaky.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. John Gant): This is not a great ballpark for offense but the Twins are popping up all over the daily matchup chart today with some power potential against John Gant. He has a 4.51 SIERA with an average 19.9% strikeout rate but also a very high 10% walk rate (I love guys who walk people for stacking). He allows a .336 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .354 wOBA to right-handed batters as well as a .206 ISO to both sides of the plate. The Twins have been putting some runs up recently and have some power guys including Dozier, Escobar, Rosario, and Morrison that I’ll have interest in today.  

Sleeper Stack:

• Oakland Athletics (vs Dallas Keuchel): Oakland has the third lowest implied total on the board today at just 4.08 which I’m hoping will keep people away. Normally, I wouldn’t suggest stacking against elite groundball pitchers but the Athletics have some right-handed power bats that can crush left-handed pitching. This will be the second time Keuchel faces this lineup in the last 10 days and he got lit up the first time around allowing six earned runs (including three home runs by Chapman, Pinder, and Canha) with only three strikeouts in an 8-1 loss. That game was in Houston which is the worst hitter’s park in the league. Today, they are in Oakland which is the sixth least friendly pitcher’s park in baseball. I’ll have shares of Oakland today in GPPs.  

This should be a fun slate! Pitching to me is fairly straightforward I’m likely going to jam in as much Strasburg as I can regardless of the ownership and figure out how to build around him.  I don't see a need to get too cute the upside in this matchup is just too good and there is really nobody else who can match it today. I’ll probably mix in some Hendricks just to differentiate a little. There are a bunch of places you can go with bats and stacks today.  As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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