Top MLB Plays 5/4 | It's a Fifteen Game Friday Night in MLB!

May 04, 2018

Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

We are hosting a freeroll today on DraftKings use this link to sign up!

  • 1st: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd-3rd: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

Happy Friday everyone! We've got a massive fifteen game slate to get to today. As far as weather goes we have no rain concerns (except for LAD/SD in Mexico which we'll get to shortly) as of now but definitely some warm weather and wind that will come into play. In Washington, as has been the case all week, we should see winds blowing out between 10-12 mph and close to 90-degree temperatures. We have two games in New York today that will be in the low 80s with the wind blowing out around 13 mph. The rest of the outdoor games have fairly average temperatures with low wind and we also have a handful of indoor games today. There is a pretty good mix of pitching options today including a couple of higher priced players, some value tournament plays, and plenty of places to target pitchers for offense. I like a lot of stacks so we'll do our best to narrow it down. Let's get to work!

Important: The game today between the Dodgers and Padres is NOT at Petco Park. It's at Estadio de Beisbol in Monterrey, Mexico. I did a little homework on the field to help you guys out today. The elevation is most important as it's at 1,770 feet. This would make it the second highest elevation among MLB parks. Still well below Coors Field but it projects to be a solid hitter's park. It's 405 feet to straightaway center and 325 feet to both left and right field. The current forecast actually calls for a possible rain risk with temperatures around 77 degrees and winds blowing out to center at 9 mph. I was originally viewing both Buehler and Lucchesi as SP2 options in cash on DraftKings but I'm downgrading them to tournament only now. They still have good skill sets but this ballpark shift is cause for concern.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@ARI) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $11K)

The most expensive pitcher on the slate today is also likely the safest when it comes to cash games. Cole is a comfortable -170 favorite taking on an Arizona team that strikes out 24.4% of the time to right-handed pitching. Cole has a nearly identical 3.84 ERA and 3.86 SIERA along with a 23.5% strikeout rate and a 96 FBv which is the second highest on the slate today. He’s deadly against right-handed batters with a 48% groundball rate, 21.6% strikeout rate and just 26.3% hard contact while allowing only a .285 wOBA. He can get into a little trouble against left-handed batters, so David Peralta is a potential trouble spot. He allows a .337 wOBA and 36.4% hard contact to lefties but he also has a 25.6% strikeout rate. This game will be at Chase Field today, which is transitioning into a more pitcher-friendly park with the use of a humidor this season. He's had at least 40 FanDuel points in each of his six starts this season and double-digit strikeouts in four of them. Cole should be able to keep the runs down and has the upside to approach double-digit strikeouts again tonight.

Multiple games over 60 fantasy points so far this season

J.A. Happ, TOR (@TB) (DK: $11.7K, FD: $9.5K)

Happ today is a -135 favorite taking on the Tampa Bay Rays in the friendly pitching environment known as Tropicana Field. Happ has a SIERA slightly over 4 compared to his 3.35 ERA which suggests some light regression could be on the way and the Rays have solid numbers against left-handed pitching this season with a .172 ISO, .347 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. But, they are also looking at some regression with a current BABIP of .346 which should start to come down over time. Happ only allows a .249 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .306 wOBA to right-handed batters. He also has above-average strikeout abilities at 21% against lefties and 23% against righties. The Rays, meanwhile, strikeout 24% of the time against left-handed pitching. There’s some definite strikeout upside in this lineup and the Rays numbers suggest they are getting a little lucky at the plate right now. Happ has had 52 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts. I think he's cash game viable though I’d rank him behind Cole today.

Heavy favorite, good pitching environment, and he's pitched well recently

Rick Porcello, BOS (@TEX) (DK: $10.8K, FD: $9K)

The former Cy Young winner who had a down season last year has started off the 2018 campaign very strong. He’s a -180 favorite today against the Rangers and has a 3.72 ERA and a respectable 3.96 SIERA. His opponent today has a very high strikeout rate of 25.1% to right-handed pitching with just a .158 ISO, .307 wOBA, and 87 wRC+. Porcello is excellent against right-handed bats with a 46.4% ground ball rate, 20.9% strikeout rate, 3.8% walks and only allowing a .304 wOBA. Against left-handed bats, which is where Texas is a bit more dangerous, he has a 21.4% strikeout rate and only allows a .303 wOBA BUT the groundball rate comes down significantly to just 36.9% and he has a hard contact rate of 35.9%. So, someone like Joey Gallo is a concern here with his power and the strikeouts being less of an issue against Porcello who’s right around the league average. That’s not going to make me shy away from him but just something to keep in mind. Either way, Porcello is one of the most consistent pitchers in fantasy baseball with FanDuel performances of 31, 44, 49, 46, 43, and 36 so far this season. The ceiling a little low for a pitcher with no games over 50 points but the floor is high and he makes for a great cash game option today.

Texas strikeouts are very high to right-handed pitching

Value Pitchers

Walker Buehler, LAD (@SD) (DK: $8.6, FD: $7.7)

If you missed my note about this game being in Mexico today go back up and read the introduction again. I’m really excited for this game today with two pitching prospects facing off against each other. The sample size here is small so I’ll touch on some of his minor league numbers as well. So far, in the majors, he has a 4.66 ERA but only a 3.88 SIERA to go with a 26.4% strikeout rate. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher forcing 66.7% groundballs to both sides of the plate. Clearly, not sustainable numbers but his minor league splits show a similar profile with 53.6% ground balls and a high strikeout rate. The downside here is his walk rate which currently sits at 13.8% and was similar in the minor leagues. The good news is he’s facing a Padres team that has a massive 27.4% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching with just a .120 ISO and .292 wOBA. Playing in Mexico definitely increases the risk as he was one of my favorite options when I thought they were at Petco Park but I still think he's firmly in consideration for tournaments, especially on FanDuel where he’s priced under $8K today.

Risk is increased in Mexico but this is still a great matchup

Joey Lucchesi, SD (vs. LAC) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.6K)

Buehler’s opponent is another lesser known but still exciting prospect in Joey Lucchesi. Similar to Buehler the sample size is small but he has an outstanding 2.78 ERA with a respectable 3.52 SIERA and an impressive 11.9% swinging strike rate resulting in a 26.9% strikeout rate. Against left-handed batters, he forces a 57.9% groundball rate with 34.4% strikeouts and allows just a .249 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, the ground ball rate drops to 35.9% and the hard contact rate rises to 42.4% but he still has a 24.5% strikeout rate and only allows a .286 wOBA. In the minors (though he never went further than Double-A before being called up) he had a less extreme but still solid 50% ground ball rate and 22.4% strikeouts. Today, he gets a Dodgers lineup that is struggling right now with just a .130 ISO, .293 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Remember, sorry to be a broken record, this game is in Mexico which obviously increases the risk. Regardless, it's a good matchup and I think he makes for an excellent tournament option today.

Really impressive for someone who skipped AAA

Jose Quintana, CHC (@STL) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.9K)

Huge slate so I’m throwing a couple extra pitcher breakdowns in here today to help us narrow down our player pool. Quintana is actually a slight dog in his matchup with the Cardinals but he has a 3.74 ERA and a 3.94 SIERA to go along with a solid 23.6% strikeout rate. He’s excellent against left-handed batters with a .320 xFIP, 50.4% ground ball rate, and 24.6% strikeout rate while only allowing a .269 wOBA and 6.8% HR/FB. Against right-handers, it gets a little messy but still very respectable numbers with a 40.6% groundball rate, 23.3% strikeout rate and allowing just a .310 wOBA. The Cardinals have some big bats in their lineup but so far they have a less than impressive .144 ISO and .300 wOBA to left-handed pitching. The stats that give me some concern, however, are their 12.7% walk rate and their .254 BABIP. It seems as though they are getting a bit unlucky with balls put in play and this number should start to come up over time. Either way, they are still striking out 22.8% of the time to left-handed pitching. There’s risk here but also a nice ceiling which makes me very interested in Quintana for tournaments today.

Low floor but his cost makes him a solid value

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

  • New York Yankees (vs. Josh Tomlin): The Yankees have the top implied total on the board today at 5.33 as they get a massive park shift from the worst hitting environment in Minute Maid Park to one of the best parks for home runs at Yankee Stadium. Tomlin has low strikeout numbers including a 7.90 swinging strike rate and a 16.9% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity is the worst on this slate (for the record 42 year old Bartolo Colon is also pitching today) at 87.6 mph. The Yankees have a .199 ISO, 114 wRC+ and 37.2% hard contact against right-handed pitching. Bombs away!

  • Boston Red Sox (vs. Bartolo Colon): Speaking of Colon, the Red Sox get to face the ageless wonder today in the friendly hitting environment that is Rangers Ballpark. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.6% and a strikeout rate of only 15.3% against a Boston team that only strikes out 17.4% of the time to right-handed pitching. They also have a .202 ISO, .366 wOBA, and a 127 wRC+. All three of those stats are the highest of any team on this slate.

  • Minnesota Twins (vs. Carson Fulmer): Fulmer enters today with an unimpressive 4.95 ERA which may only get worse considering his 5.35 SIERA. He's allowed 46.4% fly balls, 12.3% walks and has just a 17.5% strikeout rate. The Twins have a .175 ISO and 37.4% hard contact rate to right-handed pitching this season. Fulmer is actually a bit worse against right-handed bats so while I like a couple of these power lefties I'm really interested in Dozier, Escobar, and Rosario today.

  • Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Nick Kingham): This should be a sneaky one. Kingham is a top prospect who took a perfect game into the seventh inning in his major league debut. I think people are more likely to roster him as a value pitcher today in tournaments then they are to stack against him. His debut was in pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. Today, he goes to hitter-friendly Miller Park to take on the Brewers. There’s a ton of strikeout upside in this lineup so this could absolutely not work out but there’s also a lot of power, especially if Travis Shaw is back in the lineup today. Kingham’s minor league numbers suggest a fairly average profile with around 19% strikeouts, average GB/FB numbers, and slightly above average hard contact. I think he comes back down to earth today.

  • Houston Astros (vs. Kris Medlen): Medlen is getting called up today to make his first start in the majors since 2016. Although Chase Field is more of a pitcher’s park this season after the installation of the humidor, it’s still a better hitter’s park then the Astros home stadium. His last time in the majors, with the Royals, he went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA (6.19 SIERA) in six starts. He had just a 15.1% strikeout rate with a 16.8% walk rate and a 2.05 WHIP. This year, in Triple-A for Arizona, he’s 0-3 in four starts with an ERA of 6.00. This guy screams please stack against me and that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

Sleeper Stack:

  • San Francisco Giants (vs. Mike Foltynewicz): While Sun Trust Park in Atlanta isn’t considered a “hitter’s park” by any means, it’s definitely an upgrade over the Giants typical home of AT&T Park. While it tends to suppress right-handed power it’s actually a sneaky good place for left-handed power. The Giants don’t have much power but they do have a few bats that have teed off on Foltynewicz in the past. The sample sizes are small, which is why this is only a sleeper stack, but worth looking at. Check out the breakdown of the history of some of these guys against Folynewicz.

Okay! I think that covers it! Huge slate tonight with lots of potential. I'll be mixing up my exposure between the main slate and some of the smaller slates throughout the night. There's a lot of places I could see myself going both pitching and hitting. Good luck tonight and this weekend and I'll see you back here on Monday! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. If you're playing NBA at all still I'll be posting updates on the second round breakdown throughout the week. Thanks for reading!