If you have no idea what the subject line of the article is referring to, don't worry, we'll get to it. Strange night yesterday all around with a lot of unexpected performances both good and bad. Jason Vargas and Nathan Eovaldi (as @ZeroInDenver will happily point out) both threw gems last night but James Paxton did not pitch well. My Royals stacks kept me in the money in tournaments but, unfortunately, I had them paired with a lot of Braves, Mets, and Rockies who all disappointed. Sometimes you just have to take those nights where you break even and run. Regroup and get ready for the next slate. If you had a bad night, chances are you fell into the Fernando Romero trap. Don’t beat yourself up if that happened. I understood his appeal as he was dirt cheap, has upside, and was coming off a strong outing. There were a lot of red flags, however. For starters, he was getting a lot of buzz around the industry throughout the day. Something about chalk Fernando Romero just didn’t sit right with me. I also don’t like using pitchers against the Royals. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league and it kills the ceiling of the opposing pitcher. It was also very hot and the wind was blowing out in that game last night. If you used him, this is not a criticism of you but rather me just providing some insight as to why I avoided him to hopefully help you with future decisions. There was a lot of talk about him in the chat last night so I figured it was worth discussing. Shake it off and let’s get ready for the nine-game main slate tonight.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (vs. PHI) (DK: $11.8K, FD: $11K)

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea what to do with Kershaw tonight. I want to play him, especially at the discounted price tag, but part of me wants to give him a start so I can watch before I invest in him at all. He’s been battling biceps tendinitis but they aren’t actually sure if that was the cause of his decreased velocity or not. His fastball is only averaging 92.1 mph so far this season which is a full mph lower than the previous season and nearly two mph lower than the season before. He also claims to have made mechanical adjustments during the rehab. There are just a lot of unknowns here. On the plus side, he gets a home matchup tonight against Philadelphia. The Phillies have significantly more plate discipline against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching with just a 21.8% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate. But, they have very little power with only a .134 ISO, .318 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. Plus, Rhys Hoskins, their best bat against left-handed pitching, landed on the disabled list this week. If Kershaw can get back to his old ways with his 29.1% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate then the plate discipline won’t make a difference as he’ll still be able to dominate. If this were a larger slate, with a lot of pitching options, I’d be comfortable fading Kershaw tonight and pivoting elsewhere. But, unfortunately, pitching is pretty thin today so, although I don’t like taking a guy with possible injury risk, it’s hard to predict for sure what’s going to happen. If you want to use him today, I definitely wouldn’t talk you out of it. I’ll be paying close attention to the buzz he’s getting around the industry and trying to figure out what his ownership will be. My gut is telling me he’s a bit too risky for cash games but he could wind up being an excellent tournament play. We know he has the upside and, under normal circumstances, he’s a lock and load kind of guy. But all the variables out there today such as coming back from a month off, his injury is a bit unclear, and some mechanical changes to his delivery, are just making me a bit hesitant to go all in.

Aaron Nola, PHI (@LAD) ($11.1K, FD: $11K)

On the other side of this matchup, we have a guy I’m very comfortable with despite being the underdog today. Nola has a 3.54 SIERA with a 26% strikeout rate and an 11.1% swinging strike rate. He’s forcing 50.4% groundballs with a 28.4% hard contact rate. Today, he’ll face the Dodgers who have a 21.9% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching to go along with their team .164 ISO, .313 wOBA, and 99 wRC+. Pretty average numbers across the board. Nola handles both sides of the plate pretty well, which is crucial in this spot as the Dodgers have the ability to go right or left-handed heavy if they want to. Against lefties, he has a 4.15 xFIP with a 49.2% groundball rate and only allows a .301 wOBA and 28.3% hard contact. To right-handed batters, he has a 2.55 xFIP with a 30.9% strikeout rate, and 51.6% groundballs. He’s only allowing a .258 wOBA and 28.4% hard contact to players on this side of the plate. There’s truly nothing in Nola’s numbers that really stands out to me as being a red flag. His WHIP is solid, the BABIP is right around the average to both sides of the plate, he keeps the ball on the ground and his HR/9 is low. It's also a great park shift for him going to Dodger Stadium from Citizens Bank Park. The only downside here is he’s an underdog and, naturally, we’d like to be able to pick up those win points if we can. This game has a very low 6.5 O/U. Nola is strongly in consideration for both tournaments and cash games today. I'm currently viewing him as my number one option today.

Value Pitchers

Jose Quintana, CHC (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8.3)

There’s nothing fun about the thought of rostering Jose Quintana. He’s a very inconsistent pitcher and someone I’d never associate with safety. But, the bottom line here is until further notice we need to consider every left-handed pitcher that faces off against the New York Mets. They have a huge hole in their lineup without Frazier and Cespedes and are forced to go left-handed heavy even in these situations. This has resulted in a miserable 27.1% strikeout rate with just a .095 ISO, .269 wOBA, and 70 wRC+ against lefties this season. You could tell me that Derek Holland was facing the Mets right now and he'd strongly be in consideration for me. That’s how bad this situation is. Even Wilmer Flores, who’s normally one of my favorite plays anytime he sees a lefty, was recently placed on the 10-day disabled list. The Mets just have no answers when a southpaw is on the hill right now. While inconsistent, Quintana certainly has the ability to produce the type of fantasy outing we are looking for. Dating back to the start of last season he has a 3.96 SIERA with 25.2% strikeouts and 44.7% groundballs allowed. He’ll see a lot of left-handed bats today, which works very much in his favor. He has a 3.20 xFIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate while creating 47.5% groundballs. He’s only allowing a .251 wOBA and 26.2% hard contact in these situations. Right-handed batters are a bit more tricky as Quintana has a 4.08 xFIP with 24.7% strikeouts. The groundball rate drops to 43.9% against righties and the wOBA and hard contact increase to .326 and 35.8% respectively. But outside of Mesoraco and Cabrera, who are we worried about? No offense Jose Bautista but you just aren’t the player you once were. Quintana is a heavy -160 favorite and Citi Field is extremely pitcher friendly. Quintana is arguably your top value pitcher on the board and a great SP2 on DraftKings, even in cash (gulp).

Shane Bieber, CLE (@MIN) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6K)

I never thought I would say the words "I have Bieber Fever" in my lifetime but here we are. You ever hear of this guy? No? Me neither. I did a deep dive on him last night and you know what I found out? His numbers are filthy. Like really, really filthy. I’m a bit surprised he’s not getting more hype and that makes me nervous that I’m missing something. Bieber is being called up today to make a spot start and give Trevor Bauer an extra day of rest after logging 127 pitches in his last outing. He’s 22 years old and was a fourth-round selection of the Indians in the 2016 draft. He’s on the MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list and he’s ranked third on the Indians current prospect list. In ten starts this season between Double-A and Triple-A, he’s 5-1 with a 1.10 ERA in 65 innings. He has 61 strikeouts to only 3 walks so far this season (go ahead and read that last sentence again….I’ll wait). In his last outing, he had a no-hitter through seven innings before the game was called due to rain. Technically, since it was an official game, it means he threw a no-hitter despite being rain-shortened. He has a 26.5% strikeout rate and just a 1.7% walk rate. He’s allowing only a .148 average and has an incredibly low 0.55 WHIP. He forces 50% groundballs on average (59.8% so far this season) and has a 2.40 xFIP. Like I said, absolutely filthy. Now, wipe the drool from your mouth and let’s regroup for a second. Don’t go out and invest your entire bankroll on this guy today. While his numbers are outstanding, they are against inferior competition. This also isn’t the best spot for a major league debut. The Twins do have some left-handed power bats (I don’t have any info on Bieber’s splits so I’m just going to assume they are normal). This game is also in Minnesota which is very hitter-friendly and it will be 85 degrees today. Not a very good pitching situation. There are still a lot of unknowns here and because of that I’d put Bieber in the tournament only category today. I’ll absolutely have some exposure to him but you need to resist the temptation to go all in. The numbers paint the picture of a guy with a bright future but he’s still only 22 years old and doesn’t have a ton of experience in the minors. I will be 100% glued to my TV to watch this kid tonight and it would not shock me in the least if he threw a total gem.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• New York Yankees (vs. Andrew Cashner): You have to love stacking against Cashner. He has a SIERA nearly two full runs above his ERA at 5.34, with only 14.5% strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. He’ll face the Yankees today who have a .214 ISO, .347 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (all those numbers are the second highest on the slate). Camden Yards is an excellent ballpark for runs and is especially friendly to right-handed power. We know the Yankees have plenty of that. Fire them up today.

• Houston Astros (vs. Drew Pomeranz): Only a matter of time, I think, before Pomeranz mysteriously winds up on the DL with some made up injury so the Red Sox can give his rotation spot to Stephen Wright. This may be the night that seals his fate. The Astros are excellent against left-handed pitching with a .172 ISO, .337 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. They have the second highest implied total on the main slate today at 5.39 (as of this writing). Pomeranz is the perfect example of why you can’t buy into a player’s success when he pitches the majority of his games at Petco Park. It’s been all downhill since he was traded to Boston. Tonight won't change that.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Jake Odorizzi): Right now the Indians are my favorite stack of the night. This is a really bad spot for Jake Odorizzi who allows 50% fly balls and 36% hard contact. Against all the power the Indians have, in this hitter-friendly park, with 80+ degree heat, those fly balls will carry for miles tonight and spell disaster for him. Odorizzi has reverse splits, so you can prioritize the right-handed bats if you want, but he’s not great against lefties either. Cleveland is a very strong lineup top to bottom and you can pretty much stack them however you want today.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Mike Minor): Seattle came through last night with six runs against Matt Moore and I’m going right back to the well again today. We talked about this in yesterday’s article but Seattle has a group of players from lineup spots three through seven that just mash left-handed pitching. My favorite part about them is they are always underpriced and give you a strong stack to pair with some solid pitching. Haniger, Cruz, Healy, Seager, and Zunino all have a .180 ISO or better against left-handed pitching.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. Sonny Gray): I really don’t like stacking the Orioles. They are the ultimate boom or bust offense. They have the talent, at least on paper, but they seem to let you down in the spots where they should go off and then come through in spots where you least expect it. They get a matchup today with Sonny Gray who has been just all over the map in terms of performance. Gray’s numbers are pretty average with 21.6% strikeouts, 50.8% groundballs and 29.9% hard contact allowed. The Orioles have five players with a .194 ISO or better against right-handed pitching. If they can put it together, they certainly have the upside to win you a slate. This game has the highest O/U of the night currently at 10.5 runs.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Shane Bieber): This is a pure game theory perspective and it all depends on how the public perceives Bieber tonight. I already told you how impressed I was with his numbers but I can’t stress enough the fact that he’s only 22 years old, making his major league debut, in a very hitter-friendly park in 80+ degree weather. If Bieber gets a lot of interest today around the industry, then I will reduce my exposure to him and increase my exposure to the Twins as a leverage play. If it seems like Bieber is being viewed as risky and won’t be popular then I’ll increase my exposure to him and reduce how many Twins bats I have. This is all about what the rest of the field is going to do because, from what I’m seeing in the numbers, I could really see this game going either way. The idea is to be on the lower side of the variance and hope it falls in your favor.

That’s it for the breakdown. I didn’t talk about the weather at all like I normally do in the introduction so let’s hit on that real quick right now as it could definitely factor in tonight. We have rain threats in Baltimore, St. Louis, and Atlanta. At this stage, I’d say St.Louis is unlikely to play but that could certainly change between now and lock. I mentioned Minnesota a couple of times in the article but it’s going to be in the 80s with some winds blowing out. Good potential for offense there. It’s also hot and humid in Atlanta with the tropical storm still lingering in that area. You’ll absolutely need to pay attention to weather news throughout today. As far as my plans, I’m leaning Nola as my number one and I’m probably pairing him with Quintana in cash. I really like Shane Bieber’s numbers but, for me, it’s just going to be whether or not he gets popular. I'll have tournament exposure for sure, but how much remains in question. The Indians are my favorite stack, followed by the Yankees and Astros. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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