Split slates today but the majority of the action is on the main slate so that’s where we will focus our attention. We have ten games to look at with a couple of aces that stand out above the rest, some pretty good value pitching options, and, as usual, plenty of bad pitching for us to pick on. As far as weather is concerned, Atlanta and Detroit both have threats of rain. They somehow managed to get the Atlanta game in last night and tonight, at least at this point, it's looking a little better with the heaviest rain close to the start of the game but tapering off later in the evening. Things could certainly change, but this is looking like a delayed start in Atlanta. In Detroit, it’s expected to get heavier as the night goes on, which can always complicate things. We’ll need to keep an eye on these spots right up until lock. Cooler temperatures around the league with most games in the 70's (or inside). It will be right around 80 degrees at first pitch in Atlanta (and humid) and it will be around 90 degrees in Kansas City, so those are places to note for some possible offense. Wind is a concern in a few spots today as well. In Detroit, in addition to the rain, we are looking at winds blowing in between 14 and 15 mph. It’s a similar situation in Pittsburgh with winds expected to be blowing in around 12 mph. Give an upgrade to the pitchers in both of those games. In Kansas City, we are looking at winds that are going to be a bit all over the place. As low as 7 mph but up to as much as 12 mph. It will be blowing out and, with the heat, you can definitely upgrade hitters here. I don’t normally pay much attention to the wind in Oakland but 16 mph blowing out is pretty significant, so you can upgrade the hitters here as well. Last, but certainly not least, this is another Coors Field slate so we’ll need to figure out how to work that into our rosters. We’ll get to that in the “stacks” section. Alright, enough small talk, let’s win some money today.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Max Scherzer, WAS (@BAL) (DK: $13.9K, FD: $11.8K)

Well, he let us down his last time out but that’s certainly not going to stop us from going back to him. Even in a less than ideal performance he still showed a strong floor. Obviously, we’ll need more than that tonight to pay off this salary. He has a 2.80 SIERA with a 35.4% strikeout rate and a 15.8% swinging strike rate. Against left-handed batters, he has a 28.4% strikeout rate while allowing just a .293 wOBA and 27.2% hard contact rate. To right-handed batters, he has a 1.97 xFIP with a massive 44.1% strikeout rate while allowing just a .193 wOBA and 29.4% hard contact. He doesn’t come without a few red flags. First of all, he has a .254 BABIP (.257 vs lefties and .249 vs righties) and he allows a high fly ball rate (50.7% against lefties and 43.3% against righties). Neither of these things are going to scare me off of him but I think we saw a little bit of that BABIP regression in action against Miami his last time out. Today, he gets a really good matchup against the Orioles who strikeout 24.8% of the time against right-handed pitching. They have low power with just a .157 ISO, the second lowest wOBA on the slate at .293, and the second lowest wRC+ at just 82 (behind only San Diego). He’s a heavy -210 favorite and the current Baltimore lineup is batting only .190 against him in 70 at-bats. He’s strongly in play for both cash games and tournaments today.

James Paxton, SEA (vs. TEX) (DK: $11.7K, FD: $9.8K)

You can definitely make the argument for Paxton over Scherzer today with some incredible numbers of his own and a matchup with plenty of upside. He has a 3.29 SIERA that is actually above his 3.02 ERA, but obviously not by much. His strikeout rate is at 29.8% with a 13% swinging strike rate and only a 6.9% walk rate. He gets a matchup today with the Rangers, who have some serious power with a .190 ISO, but only a .316 wOBA and 94 wRC+. They also strikeout 25.9% of the time to left-handed pitching which is the third highest on this slate. Against left-handed batters, he has a 3.32 xFIP with a 25% strikeout rate, and 53.2% groundball rate. He’s allowing just a .305 wOBA and a very impressive 22.3% hard contact rate. Gallo, Mazara, and Choo will have a very difficult time today. Versus right-handed batters, he has a 3.20 xFIP with a 30.7% strikeout rate. The groundball rate drops to 39.3% but he’s still only allowing a .250 wOBA. He’s a very heavy -240 favorite, at home, in a pitcher-friendly park. I want to jam in as many Colorado bats as possible today (we’ll get to that later) and the $2200 savings you get from Paxton instead of Scherzer, with similar upside, make him awfully appealing in both cash games and tournaments. Depending on how roster construction shakes out I think Paxton will end up being my highest owned pitcher today.

Value Pitchers

Kyle Hendricks, CHC (@PIT) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $8.4K)

We’ll start with the bad. Hendricks isn’t the highest upside pitcher on the board and he’s facing a Pirates team that only strikes out 19.5% of the time. This definitely hurts his ceiling for tournaments. But, the good news is he has a 3.98 SIERA with only 6.5% walks and a very low 1.14 WHIP. To left-handed batters, he has a 23.4% strikeout rate while only allowing a .308 wOBA. To right-handed batters, the strikeouts go down to only 19.3% but the groundball rate goes up to 54.5% while only allowing a .272 wOBA and 29.9% hard contact. As I mentioned before, the Pirates don’t strike out a ton, but they also have a low .156 ISO, .315 wOBA, and 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This is a great park shift for Hendricks going from the very small Wrigley Field to the much bigger PNC Park. Even better is the fact that the wind is expected to be blowing in hard, around 12 mph, from center field. Truth be told, I was debating between Hendricks and Manaea for this part of the write-up. Manaea has more upside but comes with a lot more risk as well. He’s facing a weak, but still right-handed heavy, Rays team today and he struggles with right-handed bats with a 4.42 xFIP, only 20% strikeouts, and allowing 39.2% hard contact. Plus, the wind will be blowing out in Oakland tonight at around 16 mph with gusts over 20 mph periodically. Hendricks is the safer, high floor play and an ideal target for cash games tonight. Manaea carries significantly more risk but has the upside that makes him a better target for tournaments.

Ross Stripling, LAD (vs. PHI) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.5K)

Stripling is looking to make it three wins (and quality starts) in a row when he takes on the Phillies tonight. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts and allowed no more than two earned runs. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gone past six and two-thirds in any one of those starts. I’m banking that he’s fully stretched out at this point and he’ll be able to go longer if needed. He'll have to because Kenta Maeda left yesterday's game early and the Dodgers had to use a bunch of bullpen arms. Stripling has a 3.15 SIERA with an excellent 26.2% strikeout rate and an 11.1% swinging strike rate while only allowing 26.2% hard contact. To left-handed batters, he has an unsustainable 1.67 ERA but a still impressive 3.16 xFIP with 26.4% strikeouts and 48.2% groundballs. He allows just a .238 wOBA and only 22.2% hard contact. Against right-handed bats, he has a 3.11 xFIP with 26.1% strikeouts and 48.9% groundballs (very similar numbers to both sides of the plate). The wOBA and hard contact allowed rise a bit at .323 and 29.4% respectively but neither of these numbers are high enough to concern me. He gets a great matchup today against a strikeout happy Phillies team who goes down 26.4% of the time to right-handed pitching. They have some power with an above average team ISO of .165 but a low .310 wOBA and 94 wRC+. They also have the lowest hard-hit rate of any team on this slate at just 29.4%. Stripling is a heavy -170 favorite and makes for a strong value tournament option tonight and a fantastic SP2 in cash games on DraftKings.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Derek Holland): HAHAHAHAHA. Are they really going to put this poor guy out there tonight in Coors? Holland has below average strikeouts, above average walks and a 1.58 WHIP. He’s allowing 44.3% fly balls, 16.7% HR/FB rate, 2.08 HR/9, and 42% hard contact to right-handed bats. Again, 44.3% fly balls and 42% hard contact….in Coors Field. The Giants bullpen is depleted as well with Samardzija only lasting an inning last night and then Dereck Rodriguez leaving after three innings with an injury. You can stack this however you want but the right-handed bats are the priority.

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Jason Vargas): This is almost as bad as Holland. With Noah Syndergaard going on the disabled list, somebody needs to fill in for him today which would have been his next scheduled start. So, the Mets decided that Jason Vargas, who’s already terrible on normal rest, would be their best solution when he’s on short rest? Huh? Bad news if you’re a Mets fan but good news for DFS players. The Braves are already the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching. Vargas’s numbers over the last two seasons actually show some signs of reverse splits so don’t be afraid of the left-handed batters here either. Albies, Flowers, and Free Money Freeman are my favorites. An important player to watch: Dustin Peterson was called up to replace Ronald Acuna. Peterson was the 50th overall pick in the 2013 draft. In 113 at-bats in Triple-A this season he has a .267 AVG, .190 ISO, and .347 wOBA. He’s dirt cheap on both sites and provides significant value.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Matt Moore): Seattle has a group of batters, that are usually consecutive in their lineup, that just crush left-handed pitching (Haniger, Cruz, Seager, Healy, and Zunino). I love stacking them because you can typically mix in Healy and Zunino who are always a bit cheaper and help make the stack more affordable. Today, the Mariners have a 5.21 implied run total which is the second highest of the main-slate (as of this writing). Moore is awful to both sides of the plate with a 4.92 SIERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 37.4% hard contact.

• New York Mets (vs. Julio Tehran): While I like the Braves a lot tonight that doesn’t mean I can’t like the Mets too. This is shaping up to be a high scoring game just like last night. The Mets are so much better at the moment against right-handed pitching as they are forced to go lefty-heavy every night with both Cespedes and Frazier on the disabled list. Nimmo, Conforto, Bruce, and Cabrera all crush right-handed pitching. You can include Mesoraco and Gonzalez too in order to mix things up. Tehran has a 5.58 xFIP, with almost as many walks as strikeouts, and allows 37% hard contact to left-handed bats. This is one of my favorite stacks of the night.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Brad Keller): Sample size for Keller in the majors is a bit small (only about 22 innings) but I pulled up his numbers from his time in the minors (somehow he went from only Double-A straight to the majors) with the Diamondbacks’ organization and he’s nothing we need to worry about. Last season he was 10-9 with a 4.68 ERA in 26 starts. He had just a 19.1% strikeout rate with a high 9.8% walk rate and a 1.52 WHIP. Even better, he’s a bullpen arm that's not stretched out so I’m assuming he won’t be able to go more than three or four innings. Then we’ll get a full dose of the very terrible Royals bullpen today. Did I mention it’s going to be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out? This is my other favorite stack of the night (outside of Colorado of course).

Stack to Fade:

San Francisco Giants (vs. Jon Gray): To be clear, they are in Coors Field so I’m not calling the Giants a complete fade I’m just saying that I’m unlikely to do a full stack here against Jon Gray. He’s been really good this season with a 3.56 SIERA and 25% strikeout rate. After a very clear mistake in pricing last night a lot of these guys had a big price increase today as well. Depending on roster construction, I might end up on a bat or two but there’s nothing standing out in Jon Gray’s numbers that make me want to go after him other than he’s pitching in Coors. I’m not going to go out of my way to prioritize the Giants tonight like I did yesterday.

There are quite a few spots I like tonight for bats so I’m not sure if I’ll be doing any full stacks. It will really depend on how roster construction starts to come together as these lineups get posted. I might just pick and choose my spots with some one-off or maybe even pairs of players from the teams I like most. I love the Braves, Mets, and Twins tonight but, for me, everything starts with Story and Arenado against Holland at Coors Field. I’m leaning Paxton as my top pitcher as I think he’ll bring a similar fantasy output to Scherzer but with quite a bit of salary savings to help fit in some of these bats we need. Stripling is my SP2 in tournaments as he has more upside and Hendricks is my SP2 in cash in what should be a very safe spot for him tonight. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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