Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

Last night was pretty disappointing. Offense was lacking, as expected given all the good pitching options. I was hoping a team or two would break out but it was pretty lackluster for the most part. Hopefully, you had some success, I did not. Today we have another split slate with a six-game early slate (it's only five-games on FanDuel the DBacks/Dodgers game is not included) and a four-game main slate tonight. We continue to have warm weather and wind blowing out in both New York and Washington. We also have heavy winds blowing out today in Cleveland and Kansas City though not quite as warm. There's currently at 15% PPD risk in Cleveland so keep an eye on that one. On the night slate, we have games in Chicago and Texas that will have the winds blowing in and there's also a 15% PPD risk in Chicago. A lot to pay attention to so let's jump in and see what we can find.

Quick note: Since it's so early in the season I'll be using splits from the last two full seasons for data purposes. As we get further into this season we'll slowly reduce the 2016 data and start to add more 2018 data.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. LAD) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $10K)

Unfortunately, this game is not available on any slate on FanDuel but for those of you playing on DraftKings read on. Corbin faces a Dodgers team today that struggles with left-handed pitching including a 21.2% strikeout rate, .130 ISO, and .293 wOBA. Corbin has a SIERA slightly above four, not great but not bad, and he forces 52% groundballs. He has a 10.9% swinging strike rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate. He’s excellent, naturally, against left-handed batters allowing a .290 wOBA with 55.4% groundballs and a 30.1% strikeout rate. Against right-handed batters he can get into trouble so someone like Kike Hernandez, who crushes left-handed pitching, is a bit concerning. Corbin allows a .345 wOBA and 35.5% hard contact with a below average strikeout rate at 19.3%. The good news, he still manages to force more groundballs to right-handers at 51.4%. The Dodgers are a much less imposing team with both Justin Turner and Corey Seager now out of the lineup. If he can avoid damage against a couple of the right-handed bats he should put up a solid score today.

Lance McCullers, HOU (vs. NYY) (DK: $9.1K, FD: $9K)

The downside here is the matchup against a challenging New York Yankees team. They have a .199 ISO and a .342 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Giancarlo Stanton came to life last night with two dingers, granted it was against a lefty. The good news about the Yankees is they strikeout a ton at 24.7% against right-handed pitching which should increase the already strong upside of McCullers. His numbers are excellent with a 3.42 SIERA, 12.6% swinging strike rate, 28% strikeout rate. All of this while forcing 60% groundballs. He’s strong against both sides of the plate. Against right-handed bats the wOBA comes up a bit to .328 but he still strikes out 24.9% of batters while only allowing 27% hard contact and forcing 61.5% groundballs. Against left-handed batters he has a more impressive 31.9% strikeout rate while only allowing a .292 wOBA and forcing 58.2% groundballs. All this while pitching in the most friendly pitching environment in the league. He’s a -125 favorite in this game and my top pitching option on this slate today.

David Price, BOS (@TEX) (DK: $9.7K, FD: $7.8K)

On the main slate, your power pitching target is David Price. He's an absolute steal on FanDuel at just $7.8K. It’s a little cooler than usual in Texas today with a forecasted temperature of 82 degrees and the wind will be blowing in at 13 mph. Price has a 3.83 ERA which is right in line with his 3.79 SIERA. The Rangers have some power with a .171 ISO but they also strike out at an alarming 25.2% rate to left-handed pitching. Price allows a .297 wOBA with 49.4% ground balls to left-handed batters but his strikeout rate does come down slightly at 18.7%. To right-handed batters, the strikeout rate comes up to 25.1% while only allowing a .307 wOBA. The only concerning part about his profile is the groundball rate drops against right-handed bats and he gives up 36.6% hard contact. So, home runs are not out of the question but hopefully the wind will help him out with that today if he gives up a hard fly ball. He's a comfortable -130 favorite today as well.

Value Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (@HOU) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.9K)

Value pitching is tough to come by today. Tanaka stands out, mostly for his price on DraftKings, which is significantly lower than it is on FanDuel. But, there is a significant risk here which I'll touch base on in a minute. First, the good news. He has a 3.90 ERA and a 3.64 SIERA which means he’s actually pitching slightly better than the ERA would indicate. He has an outstanding 13.1% swinging strike rate which has resulted in 23.3% strikeouts while only issuing 5% walks. We know the Astros are dangerous but the Yankees pitchers have done well against them in this series and this is a positive park shift for Tanaka away from the home run machine that is Yankee Stadium. The Astros strikeout at a high rate of 23% to right-handed pitching which only increases his upside. Tanaka is excellent against left-handed batters with a .289 wOBA, 23.2% strikeout rate and causing 51.4% groundballs. Against right-handed bats the wOBA comes up slightly, though not bad, to .310 with a 23.4% strikeout rate. Now, the bad news. For those of you who are BVP believers go check out the daily matchup page for Tanaka today. The top three of Springer, Altuve, and Correa have shelled Tanaka. The sample size is small with only 17 plate appearances but it's enough to make Tanaka a tournament only option for me. The skillset and price are certainly appealing but his history against the defending champs is cause for concern.

Mike Minor, TEX (@BOS) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6.3K)

Yes, I'm writing up a pitcher against the Red Sox. This is my complete wild card pick of the day so just hear me out. Boston has the highest implied total of the day and has just been crushing the baseball recently. But, they struggle with left-handed pitching striking out 24.7% of the time with just a .134 ISO and .273 wOBA this season. Minor, meanwhile, has been solid with a 3.36 SIERA, 12% swinging strike rate, and 26.7% strikeout rate. Against right-handed batters he allows a respectable .305 wOBA with 23.5% strikeouts. What’s scary is his ground ball rate comes down a lot to right-handed bats with a 47% fly ball rate and 30.6% hard contact. This is a big risk with all the right-handed power in this lineup. The wind should help him out here though as it’s expected to be blowing in at 13 mph during the game. To left-handed batters, Minor is impressive only allowing a .204 wOBA with a 35% strikeout rate and 54.5% groundballs. The ceiling is massive here but the floor is non-existent. The Red Sox will be the chalk stack of the night on only a four-game slate with the highest implied total. I’m planning to roll the dice with Minor in large field GPPs as a leverage play on the field. Absolutely no guarantee it will work but nobody ever wins the big money playing it safe. If anyone wants to join me we can meet in the Mike Minor chat room.

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

A lot of options today. Here are some of my favorites but I honestly think you could make a case for stacking just about every team today. The only exception is the Chicago/Minnesota game because the wind is expecting to be blowing in hard and it's going to be cold there. That game is a cross off for me today.

• Washington Nationals (vs. Trevor Williams): The Nats have been on fire the past few nights and I don’t see the train stopping today. They get another low strikeout, right-handed pitcher, in near 90-degree weather with the winds blowing out. Williams has an ERA of only 3.99 but a SIERA of 4.75 and a below average 17% strikeout rate. Matt Adams and Bryce Harper once again find themselves in great spots. As long as Harper continues to lead off I will continue to have heavy exposure. It makes it really difficult for teams to pitch around him.

• Detroit Tigers (vs. Eric Skoglund): This stack is dependent on Miguel Cabrera’s status. If he plays, they have three power heavy right-handed bats that should tee off on Skoglund especially in this wind we are expecting. If he doesn’t, the Tigers are still interesting as a stack, but not as much as before. The sample size is small but Skoglund carries a 4.95 SIERA with 41% fly balls and 41.5% hard contact into a game where the winds will be blowing out at 18 mph. There is a chance of rain in this one so keep an eye on it but right now we have the PPD risk at 15%. The Tigers have multiple right-handed power bats that thrive against left-handed pitching including Castellanos, McCann, and Cabrera (if he plays).

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Jason Vargas): Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching this season with an incredibly low 17.3% strikeout rate. They have some power as well with a .205 ISO, .372 wOBA, and .864 OPS. Really impressive numbers. Today, they get lefty Jason Vargas and his 4.80 SIERA, 18.2% strikeout rate and a fastball velocity of just 85.7, the lowest on the slate. If he strikes anyone out today I’ll be surprised. On top of that, it will be 84 degrees in New York with the winds blowing out between 12-14 mph.

• LA Angels (vs. Chris Tillman): Obviously, you’re stacking on Tillman. No real help from the weather here but it really shouldn’t matter in this matchup. At this point, I really don’t know how Tillman is still a major league starter. Since the start of the season, he’s had fantasy point performances of 0, 1, -13, 10, and 27. His last time out he threw a one-hitter in seven innings but I’m absolutely not going to let that scare me away from attacking him. He has a 5.11 SIERA with just a 7.9% swinging strike rate and a 34.6% hard contact rate. The Angels are a low strikeout team to right-handed pitching at 19.7% with a .181 ISO and 105 wRC+. The bottom of this order has some power upside with Cozart and Calhoun in addition to a very strong 1-5.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. Jaime Barria): Barria is being called up today to make his third start of the season. In both of his previous starts, he never got past the 5th inning and never threw more than 80 pitches. The Orioles offense is struggling but this is a great spot for them to rebound. His major league sample size is small but he shows a 6.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate that is equal to his walk rate at 12.5%. He’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher at 52.2%. The downside of stacking against him is he appears to be very good at inducing soft contact with just a 17.5% hard contact rate but this is obviously not sustainable. Even if he can limit home runs it may not matter if he can’t strike anyone out and allows a bunch of free passes.

Pitching is obviously less appealing today after we'd been spoiled for two days straight with nothing but studs. There are a couple of sneaky options if you can stomach it. Offense should be available everywhere with a combination of bad pitching and hitter-friendly weather conditions. Make sure you pay attention to changes in the weather right up until lock and adjust your rosters accordingly. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. If you're playing NBA at all still I'll be posting updates on the second round breakdown throughout the week. Thanks for reading!

Catch us on LineStar MLB Chat!