I hope you all enjoyed the holiday weekend! We’ve got a 14 game main slate on both sites to talk about today. Pitching does not feature a clear “stud,” if you will, but there are still plenty of usable options for both cash games and tournaments. We also have plenty of bad pitching options and should be able to find a lot of home runs and stacks to work with. This is a Coors Field slate, so we’ll need to keep that in mind (we are going to have a lot of Coors slates to deal with as Colorado has the most home games left of any team in baseball). As far as the weather goes today, the Braves and the Mets continue to deal with the tropical storm in the southeastern part of the country. After a three-hour delay yesterday, they were able to get the second game of the doubleheader in. Tonight is looking iffy at best so this will be a game worth watching. The temperatures around the league are not going to be as warm as they were over the weekend but there are still a few good spots for potential offense. It will be 80 degrees or above in Pittsburgh, New York, Detroit, and Kansas City. All of those locations will be in the low 80's except for Kansas City where it will be approaching 90-degrees during the game. Wind is not looking like a factor anywhere. The worst spot is in that game in Atlanta where it will be blowing in around 10 mph if they even end up playing. We’ve got a lot to get to so let’s jump in and breakdown this slate!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Charlie Morton, HOU (@NYY) ($12.1K, FD: $9.9K)

I’d feel a little better if this game were in Minute Maid Park instead of Yankee Stadium but it’s hard to ignore the success Morton had in this matchup almost exactly a month ago. That night, he went seven and two-thirds innings while only allowing two hits and an earned run with ten strikeouts. Anytime a pitcher can do that against the Yankees you need to be paying attention. The issue, of course, is now the Yankees have seen him once so that does give them an advantage this time around. Due to the matchup itself and the short time frame between meetings, I’m only willing to use Morton in tournaments today despite his outstanding numbers. He has a 3.51 SIERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. He’s forcing 52.6% groundballs while allowing only 27.6% hard contact. The Yankees, as we know, are incredibly dangerous with their .214 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 120 wRC+ to right-handed pitching. But, as Verlander proved last night, and Morton proved about a month ago, they can still be defeated. To left-handed batters, he has a 2.85 xFIP with a 35% strikeout rate while allowing a very high 47.2% groundball rate and only a .238 wOBA and 29.7% hard contact rate. The only potential drawback here is the very low .238 BABIP which will likely regress toward the mean and have a negative impact on some of his numbers. Against right-handed bats, he has a 3.87 xFIP with a 21% strikeout rate while creating a massive 56.3% groundball rate and only allowing 26.1% hard contact. He does allow an above average .332 wOBA to right-handed batters so that's a bit of a red flag. He’s a slight favorite at -121 (it was minus -111 last night so the line is moving in Houston’s favor) and the current Yankees lineup is batting just .160 against him in 44 at-bats. He’s a great tournament play today and should be very low owned with all the value pitching available.

Kenta Maeda, LAD (vs. PHI) (DK: $10.8K, FD: $9.3K)

Maeda has been on absolute fire in his last two starts allowing just four total hits and zero earned runs with 20 strikeouts (12 in one game and 8 in the other) and picking up the win in both games. He’ll look to keep that going today in a great matchup with a strikeout happy Philadelphia Phillies squad. Maeda has a 3.59 SIERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 13% swinging strikes dating back to the start of last season. He’s only walking 6.6% of batters faced and allows a 29.9% hard contact rate. The high strikeout and swinging strike rate will get a boost today against the Phillies who are striking out 26.4% of the time to right-handed pitching (second highest on the slate behind only San Diego). They have a little power with a .166 team ISO but only a .311 wOBA, 95 wRC+ and the worst hard-hit rate of any team on the slate at 29.2%. We'll start with the bad news first. Maeda can have some issues with left-handed bats. He’s got a 4.42 xFIP with an average 21% strikeout rate while allowing a .334 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, he’s significantly better with a 2.90 xFIP and a 32.4% strikeout rate while only allowing a .269 wOBA and 29.2% hard contact. In addition to the clear advantage Maeda has based on the numbers, this is also a massive negative park shift for the Phillies going from Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium. He’s a heavy -160 favorite, averages 29% more fantasy points when pitching at home, and the current Phillies lineup is hitting just .230 off him in 31 at-bats. He’s checking all the boxes today and you can consider him in both cash game and tournament lineups.

Value Pitchers

Tyson Ross, SD (vs. MIA) (DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.4K)

I’m breaking my own rule a bit here and letting myself getting sucked into some recent results a little more than I should. If you look at the larger sample, going back to the beginning of last season up until tonight, Ross is not a player I’m trying to roster. He has a 4.88 SIERA with only an average 20.4% strikeout rate, a poor 8.4% swinging strike rate, and an even worse 12.2% walk rate. Sound like someone you want to invest in? Me neither. But, the further we get into this season the more success he seems to have. We are far enough along at this point where I really think you can start to consider that the changes he’s made are real. In 60.1 innings pitched this season, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 10.5% swinging strike rate. The walks are still higher than you’d like to see at 9.1% but much improved over the previous season. The one negative that continues to plague him is the 39.5% hard contact allowed. He gets a matchup today with the Miami Marlins who, quite frankly, I have no idea what to do with. Their numbers suggest they should be our favorite team to target with pitching every night. They have a 23.9% strikeout rate with just a .111 ISO, .279 wOBA, and 76 wRC+. All three of those numbers are the lowest on the slate. Yet, somehow, Miami finds a way to show up when you least expect it like in this last matchup against Max Scherzer. With the uncertainty of both Ross, who appears to be a new man but still has some rough numbers from his past, and the matchup against a Miami team that he should be able to, theoretically, handle with ease, I like Ross a lot today but I’m going to stick to tournaments only.

Luis Castillo, CIN (@ARI) (DK: $8K, FD: $7.8K)

I'm rolling with Castillo because I think he'll be less popular than some of the other options available today. I’ve rostered Castillo basically every start this season and so far he’s been a great investment. His price is beginning to creep up with his productivity and will eventually get to the point where we need to really pause and consider him but, for now, I'm going to keep investing. If we check out his numbers, we see an impressive 3.81 SIERA which is slightly below his 3.99 ERA. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 13.6% swinging strike rate. He also has the highest fastball velocity of any pitcher on this slate at 96.6 mph. This is something he struggled with last season as it appeared the velocity went away but now we can see it slowing coming back up again. By the numbers, he gets one of the best possible matchups on the board against the Diamondbacks. They have been awful against right-handed pitching including a .126 ISO, .266 wOBA, and 64 wRC+. Keep in mind, however, much of these numbers were generated without Jake Lamb who provides a solid boost to this lineup and a left-handed power bat. To left-handed batters, Castillo is a bit exposed with a 4.30 xFIP, 22.8% strikeout rate, and 36.1% hard contact rate. He still manages to keep 50% of those balls on the ground but Lamb could definitely pose a threat here. Against right-handed batters, he has a much better 3.03 xFIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate while forcing 57.6% groundballs, allowing only a .299 wOBA, and just 28.5% hard contact. This is a great spot for him and he checks a lot of boxes today. Despite being a slight underdog (though he went from +115 to +105 overnight) I think he’s firmly in play for tournaments and even in consideration as an SP2 for cash games on DraftKings.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Jeff Samardzija): Samardzija was once a pitcher with a ton of promise but something is definitely not clicking with him anymore. He’s especially bad to left-handed bats which will do him no favors against this Colorado lineup. He has a 43% fly ball rate, 15% HR/FB rate, and allows 33% hard contact. Blackmon, Dahl, and Parra are my favorites with Arenado and Story close behind. You can obviously stack this one pretty much any way you want.

• San Francisco Giants (vs. Kyle Freeland): There is really nothing in Kyle Freeland’s numbers that make me want to go out of my way to attack him with bats but since this game is in Coors Field they are in consideration by default. A couple of things are standing out to me, however, that are worth noting. For starters, Freeland has a very low 13.2% strikeout rate to right-handed bats so with the amount of contact he gives up it could lead to trouble, especially in this ballpark. The other thing I’m seeing is the Giants are cheap, like really cheap for a Coors game. Evan Longoria under $4K on both sites against a lefty is a joke. The Giants have four right-handed bats with a .193 ISO or better against left-handed pitching (McCutchen, Posey, Longoria, and Williamson) so if you wanted to stack it up this is where I would start.

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Steven Matz): The weather here is a concern so I may end up avoiding this game completely. For now, however, it’s worth discussing and hoping that the weather will improve before first pitch. The Braves are the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching with a very low 18% strikeout rate and very high .194 ISO, .358 wOBA, and 128 wRC+. Losing Ronald Acuna to the disabled list doesn’t help them but I still like the rest of the team enough to keep them in stacking consideration today. Focus on the right-handed bats including Albies, Suzuki, and Flowers but don’t be afraid to use some lefties as well. Suzuki and Flowers make the full stack surprisingly affordable.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Danny Duffy): What a difference for this Twins lineup against left-handed pitching when Sano is back. They instantly go from a team I’d consider rostering the pitcher against, to a team that I want to stack against lefties. Duffy struggles with right-handed bats with a 1.49 WHIP and allowing 42.6% fly balls, a .352 wOBA and 34.5% hard contact. Dozier, Sano, and Escobar are an intimidating combination of right-handed power. You’ll have to mix in at least one lefty to make the full stack or you could even consider Mitch Garver coming off a big game yesterday. Duffy is getting some buzz today with his incredibly low price tag so this is an interesting leverage spot if he turns into chalk.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx): Bibens-Dirkx has a 5.04 SIERA with only 13.4% strikeouts while allowing a 1.67 HR/9 and 37.8% hard contact. He’s bad to both sides of the plate but worse to lefties with an abysmal 8.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate while allowing a .345 wOBA. I’d start any stacks with Kyle Seager and build around him. With Jean Segura unlikely to play it will be interesting to see what the posted lineup looks like so keep an eye on that.

• Texas Rangers (vs. Felix Hernandez): Hernandez is obviously not the pitcher he used to be and this is shaping up to be a difficult matchup for him today. He has a hard time with left-handed bats with his 6.03 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, and only 19% strikeouts. He has a 1.50 WHIP and a 17.4% HR/FB rate while allowing a .348 wOBA to lefties. He gets to face a lineup today that can go very left-handed heavy and has the power to back it up including Choo, Mazara, Profar, Gallo, Odor, and Guzman. I think the Rangers are very sneaky in this spot tonight.

It's a really good day to pay down at pitcher with Morton being the most expensive on the board and in a bad matchup. Obviously, I couldn’t include everyone but guys like Zack Godley, Dan Straily, and Blake Snell are all standing out to me as well. Godley has been roughed up his past few outings but his larger sample size still suggests we don't need to be very concerned. Straily is facing the Padres today and I always have interest in that matchup. Snell get's an Oakland team that is really hurting against left-handed pitching without Khris Davis in the lineup. I have interest in the Coors bats today which should be easy to fit given all the pitching options. Samardzija is just bad right now there’s no nice way to put it. The Giants are interesting mainly because of their prices. In fact, you can game stack this and still have enough money left over for some decent pitching options. This is shaping up to be a slate where I prioritize my bats completely and then just see where I land on pitching in the end since there are guys I Iike in each pricing tier. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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