Today we celebrate the lives of those who gave the ultimate sacrifice while serving our country. I have a friend from college who was killed in action serving in Iraq and I know if he were around today he'd want to eat some steak, drink some beers, and watch some baseball. So, with that in mind, let's get our roster's set up so we can spend the day enjoying time with friends and family.

We’ve got a ton of day baseball to talk about today and since the early slates have way more games, we are going to focus on them for the article. FanDuel’s early slate features seven games (it cuts off any games after 2:10 pm EST) and DraftKings’ early slate features twelve games (ending with the games at 4:10 pm EST). The slates kick off at 1:05 pm EST on both sites. They also both have the main slate, with just four games, that starts at 7:05 pm EST if you’re interested in playing that. As far as weather goes, there isn’t a ton to discuss. Atlanta is the only spot with a threat of rain (which is ironic since they have a doubleheader today to make up a previous rainout). Cooler temperatures on the east coast with Boston expected to be in the 50s today and New York in the 60s. It will be hot in Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh with temperatures in the upper 80s so those could be some spots where we look for some offense. Nothing super impactful in terms of wind today but as always make sure to check before lock to be sure. Alright, let’s see how these early games breakdown for us today.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Justin Verlander, HOU (@NYY) (DK: $12.6K, FD: $11.K)

Pitching is a bit awkward. There’s plenty to like but none that I feel are truly “safe” for your cash games. Verlander is the first guy on my list who is normally an excellent cash game option with a solid floor/ceiling combination but today he gets a matchup with the Yankees that really reduces that floor. He’s got a 2.76 ERA and a 3.72 SIERA this season with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging strikes. To left-handed batters, he has a 3.83 xFIP with 31.3% strikeouts and only allows a .277 wOBA. The red flag here is a super low .261 BABIP and his very high 47.4% fly ball rate. The low BABIP could definitely lead to some regression and the high fly ball rate is just not something I feel comfortable with in Yankee Stadium against this lineup. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.43 ERA but a much higher 4.06 xFIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate and is only allowing a .254 wOBA. He has similar red flags to this side of the plate as well with a .253 BABIP and 45% fly balls. The Yankees are the best offense in baseball. They show incredible plate discipline with 10.6% walks and an average 22.6% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching. They have a league best .216 ISO and also a .349 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. Their 17.2% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching also leads the league and makes me nervous when you factor in Verlander’s high fly balls allowed. This is by no means safe, but Verlander brings the upside that keeps me interested in him for tournaments today. He’s a -130 favorite and the current Yankees lineup is batting just .210 off him in 80 at-bats.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (DK: $11.1K, FD: $10.7K)

Right now, this is where I’m leaning in cash games which sounds crazy considering what the Braves did to Chris Sale yesterday. Remember, however, the Braves are significantly better against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. Versus righties, they have average or even below average numbers with a .152 ISO, .317 wOBA, and a 99 wRC+. They also are a team that doesn’t strikeout very much with only a 20.7% strikeout rate. deGrom’s numbers are very impressive with a 3.08 ERA, 3.29 SIERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, and 13.7% swinging strike rate. He’s also forcing 45% groundballs. It’s worth pointing out that with the exception of ERA, all those numbers are in favor of deGrom over Verlander. Against left-handed bats, he has a 3.42 xFIP and 27% strikeout rate while only allowing a .289 wOBA and 29.7% hard contact rate. To right-handed batters, he has a 2.76 xFIP with a 32.6% strikeout rate and only allows a .269 wOBA. Atlanta is definitely not an offense I’m going to go out of my way to attack anymore but they are much more intimidating against lefties than they are against righties and deGrom has the ability to put up a nice outing in this spot. The low strikeout rate of Atlanta reduces deGrom’s ceiling in tournaments so be careful if you’re considering him but I think he still offers a nice floor for your cash games today.

Value Pitchers

Caleb Smith, MIA (@SD): (DK: $8.1K, FD: $7.7K)

Smith has a ton of upside but several red flags that reduce his floor and overall safety even in a great matchup against San Diego. He has a 3.97 SIERA which is nearly a full run below his 4.90 ERA and a very impressive 28.5% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging strike rate. So far so good right? Unfortunately, he also comes with 12% walks, a 45.3% fly ball rate, and 35.8% hard contact. The threat presented by the fly ball and hard contact rate is reduced playing in Petco Park but it’s still something to be aware of. The Padres have a surprisingly high .182 ISO against left-handed pitching but when you actually analyze their lineup you realize most of this comes from Christian Villanueva who has a massive .587 ISO in 67 plate appearances against lefties. Outside of him nobody else really presents a real threat. They only have a .304 wOBA and 94 wRC+ and they strikeout 25.8% of the time to left-handed pitching. Against left-handed batters, Smith has a 3.39 xFIP (two runs lower than his 5.40 ERA to lefties), with a 28.6% strikeout rate but he allows a .325 wOBA and 38.6% hard contact rate. The good news is he shows a very high .411 BABIP to left-handed hitters. Between his very high BABIP and his xFIP that is two runs below his ERA, he should see positive regression against lefties coming in his direction in a big way. To right-handed bats, he has a 4.41 xFIP with a still very high 28.5% strikeout rate while only allowing a .285 wOBA. The issue here is a very low .229 BABIP with a 13.5% walk rate. Negative regression against righties could be an issue. Despite some uncertainty here, this is one of the best matchups on the board for any pitcher today. He’s a slight favorite and in a pitcher’s park. With so little safety available, you can consider him in cash, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings. He’s one of my favorite tournament options available.

Trevor Cahill, OAK (vs. TB) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8.1K)

Cahill is another guy that I have a bunch of interest in today in the mid-tier pricing range. He’s got a 4.28 ERA but a 4.07 SIERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate. He’s also an extreme groundball pitcher forcing 56.9% groundballs dating back to the start of last season. To left-handed bats, he has a 3.96 xFIP with 24.8% strikeouts and a 58.3% groundball rate. He’s only allowing a .304 wOBA to the left side of the plate. To right-handed batters, he has an even better 3.65 xFIP with a 22.4% strikeout rate while forcing 55.9% groundballs. The red flags here are the .365 wOBA and 35.4% hard contact rate allowed. Today, he gets a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that carries a .323 wOBA, and a 105 wRC+. That’s the bad news. The good news is, they have very little power with just a .136 ISO and they strikeout 21.3% of the time. Not the highest strikeout rate to right-handed pitching on the slate but still above average. I like this spot for tournaments today as the high groundball rate he forces and the low power the Rays display should allow Cahill to keep this game in control. There are enough strikeouts available here for Cahill to produce a tournament worthy outing at what should be lower ownership as I believe much of the field will be focused on Caleb Smith today at a similar price point.

Max Fried, ATL (vs. NYM) (DK: $4K, FD: $5.5K)

This is just too good of a spot to ignore and I couldn’t decide between Smith and Cahill so I’m just going to write about Fried anyway. The first thing that stood out to me is Fried is only a +125 underdog with Jacob deGrom on the hill against him. That should tell you everything you need to know about this matchup. The Mets are pathetic against left-handed pitching this season. I actually don’t think pathetic is a strong enough word to be honest. They have a 26.9% strikeout rate with just a .094 ISO, .262 wOBA, and 66 wRC+ so far this season against southpaws. Now, granted, no Todd Frazier and no Yoenis Cespedes are both massive blows to the team from the right side of the plate but until those guys get back into the lineup I’ll attack the Mets with left-handed arms as much as I possibly can. This is way more about how bad the Mets are than it is about how good or bad Fried is. He has a 4.22 ERA with a closely aligned 4.18 SIERA and a below average 19.7% strikeout rate. He also allows a high 10.2% walk rate. He does, however, force 60.2% groundballs. We only have a small data sample to work with (even going back to the start of last season) but he shows promise against left-handed bats with a 2.75 xFIP, 33.3% strikeout rate, 56.5% groundball rate and allowing just 26.1% hard contact. He does, however, allow a 13.3% walk rate and a .371 wOBA (BABIP is also high at .381). To right-handed bats, he’s vulnerable with a 4.93 xFIP that is slightly higher than his 4.91 ERA and only 13.7% strikeouts while allowing a .359 wOBA. The good news is, he should see around seven left-handed bats today. Cabrera and Flores are really the only threats. I wouldn’t go crazy here but I can definitely see myself with some tournament exposure.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Dylan Covey): Covey allows a .405 wOBA and .257 ISO to right-handed batters and a .374 wOBA and .242 ISO to left-handed batters. He’s got a 5.35 SIERA with only 14.3% strikeouts. His walk rate is near his strikeout rate at 10.4% and he has a massive 1.61 WHIP. He’s an ideal candidate for stacking against. He’ll take on the Indians today who have a .182 ISO and 36.7% hard hits against right-handed pitching. Lindor, Ramirez, and Encarnacion are the priorities with Brantley and Alonso as secondary options.

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Matt Boyd): I’m a Matt Boyd fan but this is not the spot against a right-handed heavy Angels lineup. He’s expected to see at least eight right-handed bats today where he allows a .350 wOBA, .200 ISO, and has just an 18.5% strikeout rate. The Angels are well disciplined at the plate with above a 10% walk rate and below a 20% strikeout rate. Cozart, Trout, Simmons, Upton, Pujols, and Kinsler are all on the radar today.

• Washington Nationals (vs. Alex Cobb): Cobb is particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters allowing a .361 wOBA and .203 ISO while striking out only 18.3% of the lefties he faces. As we know, the Nationals have some power left-handed bats that can take advantage of this situation including Harper, Adams, and Soto. You can absolutely include Turner, Rendon and even Taylor or Difo as part of a full stack.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Homer Bailey): Arizona is not a team I’m making a habit of stacking this season but they get a great matchup today and for the most part the players are affordable. Figured I should mention at least a couple of cheaper stacking options today. They get to face our good friend Homer Bailey and his 5.25 SIERA, 14.8% strikeout rate, 1.69 WHIP and 35.3% hard contact rate. Jake Lamb and David Peralta are two of my favorite players on the board today. I’d start stacks with them and then fill in the blanks depending on how many teams you’re rolling out.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Doug Fister): Here's another less expensive option in a good matchup you can consider. With guys like Heredia and Gamel mixing into the top of the order there’s a lot of value here you could build around. Fister has just a 19.3% strikeout rate and allows a very high 15% HR/FB rate and 35.4% hard contact. He’s especially bad against lefties with a really high walk rate, wOBA allowed, and hard contact rate allowed. Kyle Seager is my favorite option, and Gamel can also provide value from the left-side of the plate. Then you can mix in the usual suspects including Cruz, Healy, Segura, and Haniger.

Sneaky Stack of the Day Call:

• Detroit Tigers (vs. Tyler Skaggs): I already talked about Nick Castellanos in the home run section but I’ll reiterate this one more time. I really like Skaggs overall but this is just not a good spot for him. I think it’s possible he carries some ownership today with all of the uncertainty surrounding the pitching options and that will only increase my Tigers exposure. It’s going to be very hot in Detroit and this is a negative park shift for Skaggs. The Tigers have some guys who can crush left-handed pitching including the aforementioned Castellanos, along with James McCann, John Hicks, and even Niko Goodrum. The Angels bullpen is not great either so if the Tigers can get to Skaggs early they should be able to continue piling it on in the late innings.

It’s a fun holiday slate today. Like I said at the start of the article pitching is strange as the obvious cash game candidates really don’t stand out as much as usual. It’s a bad matchup for Verlander. It’s a fine but not great spot for deGrom. I know the Braves are worse against right-handed pitching but they are still a good offense. Guys like Caleb Smith and Trevor Cahill have some appeal but both carry plenty of risks. Right now, I’m still leaning deGrom and Smith for cash as I think the reward outweighs the risk. In tournaments, I love both of them as well, along with Cahill, Verlander, and of course Max Fried. I didn’t mention him in the article today but David Price is also very underpriced on FanDuel today. I think he’s someone you could take a look at over there. Plenty of good offense and stacking spots today. We don’t have to deal with Coors since that game is on the main slate which is nice. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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