Happy almost the weekend! Hopefully, for most of you, it’s a long weekend. Let’s start getting ready for the 14 game slate we’ve got ahead of us tonight. There are a ton of pitching options today including a group of studs that are nearly impossible to separate. Weather is going to play a factor today but it’s not rain related. In fact, despite so many games, we currently have zero threats of rain to worry about. But, the eastern part of the country is very hot today with the games in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York, Detroit, Boston, and Cleveland all in the 80's and near 90 degrees in a couple of spots. It will also be 93 degrees in Texas. It’s even going to be 88 degrees at Coors Field! We’re also looking at double-digit winds blowing out in Philadelphia, New York, and Boston. That’s a lot of hitting weather out there today. Some of the danger is minimized by the pitchers on the hill in these spots but some places are definitely areas we’ll be looking for stacks and home runs. Let’s not waste any time, there’s a lot to discuss.    

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Max Scherzer, WAS (@MIA) (DK: $14K, FD: $12K)

Even on a slate full of studs, this man stands out above the rest. He’s undoubtedly your top option today and will be worth every penny in this spot. He has the lowest SIERA (2.74), the highest strikeout rate (36%), and the highest swinging strike rate (16%) of anyone on this slate. Ironically, he even has the highest BABIP.  These numbers and he's been a bit unlucky?  How is that possible? But wait! It actually gets better. He’s facing the Miami Marlins today. The right-handed heavy Miami Marlins. Ready for Scherzer’s numbers against right-handed bats? 2.15 ERA, 1.78 xFIP, 45.6% strikeouts, and a 4.9% walk rate. He allows only a .187 wOBA and 29% hard contact. The Marlins have a 24.1% strikeout rate with a .113 ISO, .279 wOBA, and a 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. There’s not much analysis needed here. He’s the largest favorite on the board at -245, he’s pitching in one of the best pitcher parks in the league, and he’s facing very weak and very right-handed heavy Marlins lineup that he should just rip apart. He’s without question your cash game arm and I’m going to try very hard to fit him on as many tournament lineups as I can. With his price and the other available studs on this slate it wouldn’t shock me if his ownership was a bit lower than it should be.   

We’ve got a group of four studs behind Scherzer and you could make a case for any of them. I figured the best way to approach this was to take the names and the prices out of the equation and do a side by side comparison and see how we rank these guys. 

Taking a look at the individual numbers, well, this is pretty difficult. Pitcher #2 has the highest SIERA of the group along with the highest walk rate, plus the lowest groundball rate and the most hard contact allowed. I’m being very picky here but this is someone we can consider crossing off. Pitcher #3 is the only one of the group with a SIERA that’s lower than his ERA and both numbers are outstanding. He does have the lowest strikeout rate of the group but also the highest swinging strike rate. Remember, a general rule is your strikeout rate is about double your swinging strike rate. This means the other three pitchers should expect their strikeout rate to decrease a bit while pitcher #3 should actually increase. He also has the lowest walk rate and hard contact allowed of everyone in this group. Finally, he has the highest groundball rate and BABIP. So, he’s actually getting a bit unlucky with his batted ball data and he’s still putting up numbers like this. I’m leaning toward #3 at the moment. Let’s check out the opponents they will face.

Man, this is rough. I think I’m going to eliminate pitcher #4. His opponent has the lowest strikeout rate, a high wOBA, and a high ISO. They’ve also got the best wRC+ and one of the better hard contact rates. The problem is I’m suddenly interested in pitcher #2 again who I was thinking of crossing off before. His opponent has a very high strikeout rate, a below average ISO, and the lowest wOBA and wRC+ of the group. They’ve also got a high .323 BABIP indicating they have been a bit lucky and yet they still have average or below average numbers. It’s crazy how close these guys are. Let’s look at a few other factors that might help out.

I don’t love the situation today for pitcher #4. Hitter-friendly ballpark, hot weather, and winds blowing out fairly hard. Pitcher #3 also has a tougher matchup and is in a hitter’s park today. They are the smallest favorite of the group. So, the winner is? Pitcher #2: James Paxton. Despite Paxton having slightly worse individual numbers than the group (but still really good) he has arguably the best matchup today, at home, in a pitcher-friendly park, and he’s a heavy favorite. After him, I’d go with Pitcher #1, Corey Kluber. He’s facing the Astros, which just because of the names in their lineup instantly makes me nervous, but when you look at the numbers they are just not as threatening as you would think. That will likely change as the season goes on but, for now, I think Houston will struggle with Kluber today. Pitcher #3 is Noah Syndergaard and Pitcher #4 is Luis Severino. One interesting thing to point out in favor of Severino is he’s facing a very right-handed heavy Angels team today. He’s dominating right-handed batters with a 28.6% strikeout rate while only allowing a .239 wOBA and 25.8% hard contact this season. I think that puts him ahead of Syndergaard for me. Regardless, all of these guys are in play.  This is simply the order I’m personally ranking them in.  I wouldn't fault you for ranking them differently or choosing any of them tonight.  This is one of those situations where my strategy is likely going to be having the most exposure to the person in this group I expect to be the least owned, as the ceiling for each of them is very similar.  

Value Pitchers

Sean Manaea, OAK (vs. ARI) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8.3K)

This is a good matchup for Sean Manaea against the Diamondbacks who are without one of their primary weapons against left-handed pitching in AJ Pollock. Manaea’s having a great season so far with just a 2.71 ERA (3.87 SIERA), 20% strikeouts, a 10.3% swinging strike rate and only 4.3% walk rate. He’ll get a boost today against Arizona who strikes out 26.4% of the time to left-handed pitching. Arizona really lines up well for him today. They are a pretty left-handed heavy team to begin with and without Pollock, they are basically down to Ahmed, Owings, and Goldschmidt as the right-handed bats to keep an eye on. Even Goldschmidt, who is normally a lefty masher, is having such a down season right now that I’m not overly concerned. Manaea has an average 4.38 xFIP and 20.4% strikeout rate to righties. The downside is he allows 39% hard contact, so it’s possible he still gets into trouble with someone like Goldy. Against lefties, which he may see more of today, he’s got a 3.79 xFIP with a 23.8% strikeout rate while allowing just a .265 wOBA and a very impressive 14.3% hard contact rate this season. It doesn’t hurt that this game is in Oakland where Manaea averages 31.4% more fantasy points then he does when pitching on the road. It’s also going to barely crack 60 degrees at game time and get even cooler as the game goes on; really ideal pitching weather for him. He’s a -133 favorite and if he can take advantage of the strikeout upside in this Diamondbacks lineup he could be a really solid tournament option today.  

Ross Stripling, LAD (vs. SD) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $6.7K)

I love Stripling today and if I end up paying down this is exactly where I’m going. He has a solid sample size in 2017 with 109 innings and had a 3.22 ERA and 3.28 SIERA with an impressive 25.5% strikeout rate and a 10.9% swinging strike rate. He allowed 47% groundballs and only 26.5% hard contact. This season is looking just as good with a 3.07 SIERA and a 27.8% strikeout rate while still only allowing 25.3% hard contact. A couple of red flags this season are his swinging strike rate is down to 9.1% so his overall strikeout rate should decrease if that continues. The groundball rate is also down to 41.9% but I’m less concerned about that considering he’s still managing the hard contact well. He gets a favorable matchup today with the Padres who have the second highest strikeout rate on the slate at 26.4%. They have just a .121 ISO, .284 wOBA, and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Most of the little power they do have is from the left side of the plate. Against left-handed bats, Stripling has a 3.49 xFIP with a 24.6% strikeout rate. He does an outstanding job limiting damage with only a .37 HR/9, a .250 wOBA, and a 22.2% hard contact allowed. Against right-handed bats, which the Padres don’t have anyone that really concerns me (Villanueva is only a problem against lefties) he has a 3.12 xFIP, 26.1% strikeout rate while forcing 48.2% groundballs and allowing just a .316 wOBA. If this wasn’t a slate already filled with studs, Stripling would be my favorite pitcher on the board. He’s a heavy -200 favorite and I think he makes a solid SP2 option in cash to pair with Scherzer and saves you enough salary to get a least a couple of big bats in your lineup.  

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Julio Teheran): Teheran is a much better pitcher on the road than he is at home but that’s not going to matter today. This sets up as just an awful spot for him. He has below average strikeouts and an above average hard contact rate to both sides of the plate. He’s particularly weak to left-handed batters with a 36.7% hard contact rate last season and a 40% hard contact rate this season. Moreland should make the lineup today with the news of Hanley Ramirez’s pending release (he was DFA’d this morning) so he’s my favorite option, along with Andrew Benintendi and even Rafael Devers. If Moreland is toward the bottom of the order today we could get a nice lefty only stack of Benintendi, Moreland, Devers, and Leon.

• New York Yankees (vs. Andrew Heaney): Maybe I should include the Red Sox and Yankees in my Coors Field filter? Their implied totals every night are ridiculous. What do you think it would be if one of these teams actually played at Coors? I’m getting off track. The point is the Yankees are firmly in play against Andrew Heaney. I like him for his strikeout upside but he has issues with hard contact and that will not do him any favors against this lineup, in the heat, with the wind blowing out, and in this ballpark. I hope Torres stays at the bottom of the order so people continue to not use him. Rostering him has been like printing money recently.

• Tampa Bay Rays (vs. David Hess):  I've named two very expensive stacking options so let's save some salary here. Baltimore still hasn’t officially announced their starter today but all signs are pointing toward David Hess. Small sample size but he profiles as a low strikeout pitcher who allows a high fly ball and hard contact rate. He faced the Rays earlier this season and went six innings giving up six hits and three earned runs. Not terrible but I’d expect Tampa Bay to be more ready for him this time (could be why the Orioles are waiting until the last second to announce this). I like the Rays as a value stack tonight to help you fit in the pitchers you need or load up on other bats if you want to.

• Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Sam Gaviglio): Hard to ignore the Phillies offense today at their home, very hitter-friendly park, in nearly 90-degree heat with the winds blowing out over 10 mph. Gaviglio has a 4.70 SIERA with just 17.2% strikeouts. He allows above average hard contact particularly to right-handed bats at 32.4%. The middle of the order here with Hoskins, Herrera, and Santana are standing out. I also really like Nick Williams and even Maikel Franco.

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Joe Musgrove): Here’s a sneaky one that I’m starting to like. Musgrove will make his Pirates debut today after coming over in the Gerrit Cole trade. If we go back to the start of last season he actually struggles more with right-handed bats with a 4.78 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, and a .351 wOBA. He also has low strikeouts at 16.9%. The Cardinals are full of right-handed power bats that could exploit this today. Pham, O'Neil, and Gyorko are standing out to me. I would definitely include Matt Carpenter it’s not like Musgrove is outstanding against lefties. Martinez and Ozuna are also in that mix.

• Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Zach Eflin): I like the Jays today even though I have to acknowledge that Eflin is pitching really well so far this season. I’m not totally ready to buy into his new success and I’m hoping variance catches him in this spot. We know that the weather is shaping up perfectly for the hitters on these teams today. If we look at the data from both this and last season, Eflin has a 5.33 xFIP, 15.2% strikeout rate with a whopping 2.53 HR/9 and 36.6% hard contact rate. The strikeouts are way up when looking at only this season's data, however, as he’s been relying more on his slider this year than in the past. But, his xFIP to lefties is still well above his ERA and I think regression could be coming. Toronto has a bunch of bats that can hit right-handed pitching really hard including Smoak, Hernandez, Morales, and Granderson. Donaldson, Solarte, and Pillar are on the radar as well.  

I’m not paying for Coors bats today. I want the pitching. The Rockies have disappointed more often than not at home this season and they are just not looking like a great offense in general right now. I don’t think the prices of the Reds players are worth it, even in Coors, with Jon Gray on the hill. You could make a legitimate argument, in my opinion, to play Gray today.  You really don't need to go there with so many options on this big slate and the 88-degree weather in Coors Field isn't doing the pitchers any favors, but I see a path to success for him if you wanted to take a large field GPP flyer.  I’m going Scherzer in cash and likely pairing him with another high priced stud on DraftKings and just locking in the pitching points. There should be enough value on this slate to make that work. The Rays are really standing out to me as value bats against David Hess. In tournaments, I’m going to mix and match the stud pitchers and some Ross Stripling as well. Stripling should make it easier to fit in a few more bats.  I'm not going to worry too much about ownership on this slate, there are a lot of options and it should be pretty well spread out. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry.  Thanks for reading!

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