I’m not excited about this slate or slates I should say. Because the main slate is only three or four games depending on what site you use I’m going to do more of an “all-day” article where I’ll talk about players or teams from any game that are standing out to me. Pitching is pretty ugly. The ones with the most upside are not in great spots and there are two pitchers whom I’ve never even heard of taking the mound tonight. To put it bluntly, Dylan Bundy is looking like a chalk option. He's viable for sure but I just don't think I can bring myself to play chalk Dylan Bundy. As far as weather goes there is very little to discuss. It will be hot again down in Texas so look for some bats there. The rest of the games are more mild in the high 70s and 60s. Light winds everywhere with the exception of Oakland where it’s expected to be blowing out close to 12 mph. Give a small boost to the bats in that one. No threats of rain anywhere. Let’s jump in and see what we can sort out for these games today!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Charlie Morton, HOU (@CLE) (DK: $11.4K, FD: $10.2K)

I really don’t like using pitchers against a loaded Cleveland Indians lineup but pitching on both slates today is less than ideal. Despite being the most talented and highest priced pitcher on the board, I’m labeling Morton as a tournament only option due to the matchup. There’s another pitcher available today with a higher floor but less upside that makes more sense for cash games than Morton. The Indians have some power with a .182 ISO and 36.8% hard contact against right-handed pitching. Their .314 wOBA and 94 wRC+ is less intimidating but the below average .277 BABIP leads us to believe those numbers will get better. There’s quite a bit of risk here. With that said, Morton has been outstanding with a 3.48 SIERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. He’s forcing 52.7% groundballs and only gives up 27.1% hard contact. To left-handed batters, he has a 2.81 xFIP with 35.6% strikeouts while only allowing a .237 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a higher 3.86 xFIP with an average 21% strikeout rate while allowing a .332 wOBA. So, he’s a little worse against right-handed batters but still pretty solid against both sides. The floor is lowered in this spot but the upside is very much in-tact. He’s my favorite tournament option on the board and I hope people stay away from him when they see the matchup.

Rick Porcello, BOS (@TB) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $9.3K)

Here’s your cash game arm today. Porcello has a solid floor but lacks the needed ceiling to be considered for tournaments. He gets a great matchup today against the Rays who struggle with right-handed pitching. They have an average .321 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ but very little power with just a .135 ISO. They also have an above average .323 BABIP. Porcello should be able to minimize any major damage in this spot and eat up innings which is what he does best. He’s got a 21.4% strikeout rate and the Rays have a 21.9% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching. This season, against left-handed bats, which the Rays actually have very few of, he’s got a 3.27 xFIP (nearly a run and a half below his ERA) and a 29.9% strikeout rate while only allowing a .305 wOBA. The issue here is the hard contact as he allows 38.2% hard hits. To right-handed bats this season, he has a worse 3.40 xFIP and just a 19.9% strikeout rate, but he only allows a .244 wOBA and 21.9% hard contact. With the Rays being so right-handed heavy, and Porcello having a lower strikeout rate, it lowers his ceiling here. But, with the Rays lack of power, and Porcello’s ability to limit hard contact against right-handed batters, it raises his floor. He’s an ideal target for cash games and he’s cheap enough for you to fit in some power bats to boost your cash game lineups.

Value Pitchers

Blake Snell, TB (vs. BOS) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.1K)

Another example of a player who I like but a matchup that I hate. But, the Red Sox have struggled this season with left-handed pitching and Snell has already had some success against them. I’m not thrilled they’ve already faced him as it gives the Red Sox an advantage but the game was about a month ago now and Snell gave up just two earned runs in seven innings. He’s also significantly better at home with just a 1.07 ERA in four starts at the Trop this season. Overall, Snell has a SIERA that’s above his ERA at 4.41 and 3.73, respectively. But, he’s got a solid 23.1% strikeout rate and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. He does, however, allow 10% walks which aren’t ideal. To left-handed batters, he has a 3.35 xFIP with a 26.5% strikeout rate while only allowing a .208 wOBA. Where he has problems, and this is what makes me nervous, is against righties. He’s got a 4.53 xFIP, 10.3% walk rate and allows 33.3% hard contact. The good news is he still has above average strikeouts at 22.4%. I want to say that Betts and Martinez should be able to take full advantage of this, but like I said earlier the Red Sox haven’t been great against lefties. They have a below average .143 ISO and a down right awful .299 wOBA and 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. This one could go either way. But, I like the fact it’s in Tampa Bay which can only help Snell. This is strictly tournament only but nobody else will go here because they are afraid of the Boston bats. There’s a path to success that would give you an advantage over the field at what should be single digit ownership.

Luis Castillo, CIN (vs. PIT) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.3K)

Here we go again. Another upside pitcher who’s in a matchup today that I don’t love but with the weak pitching on all slates today, he’s in consideration. Due to the matchup and the poor pitcher’s park, I’m going to call this one a tournament only option as well. Castillo has been very up and down but he continues to show improved velocity in his fastball like he had when he was first called up. He’s got an ERA and SIERA that are fairly close together at 4.03 and 3.80, respectively. His strikeout stuff is excellent with a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 13.6% swinging strike rate while forcing nearly 55% ground balls. He gets a Pirates team today with a low strikeout rate of just 19.6% and some slightly above average numbers against right-handed pitching including a .160 ISO, .320 wOBA, and 103 wRC+. Against left-handed batters, Castillo has a 23.4% strikeout rate and only allows a .314 wOBA but has a 36.1% hard-hit rate. To right-handed batters, he’s got a 27% strikeout rate while allowing only a .301 wOBA and a 29.2% hard contact rate. He should be able to handle the righties in the lineups but I have some concern about the hard contact rate against left-handed batters. It’s feasible that players such as Dickerson, Meadows, or Polanco could do some damage here. Normally, pitchers against the Pirates are not a good move as they just don’t strike out enough to provide the upside we are looking for. But, given the options available to us today, I think Castillo has the upside on his own to put up a solid outing against this team. He should be low owned, especially since this game is at Great American Ballpark. I won’t be going heavy on my exposure here but I’ll plan to have a few shares and he’s cheap enough where you can load up on some bats.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Nick Tropeano): I hate Tropeano. I can never figure him out. The numbers that I see suggest he’s an average pitcher at best. He’s got a 19.4% strikeout rate and a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate with an average groundball and fly ball rate. The part I can never get past is the hard contact rate. This season he’s allowing a 43.8% hard contact rate to lefties and a 47.7% hard contact rate to righties. I think there’s a chance Tropeano is popular today with pitching being so thin and that makes me really like the Toronto bats. They have a solid implied total of 4.73 and those hard contact rates are going to be a lot more difficult to hide in the Rogers Centre.

• Cincinnati Reds (vs. Ivan Nova): This is literally almost the exact same spot as last night. Both Kuhl and Nova struggle with left-handed batters and the Reds have solid power from that side of the plate. Plus, the game is in Great American Ballpark which is excellent for home runs, particularly from the left-side. I would expect the Reds to roll out a similar lineup to last night with Winkler, Barnhart, Votto, Gennett as the top four and then Schebler in the five or six spot along with Suarez. I like all these guys. You can include Duvall as well.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Josh Lucas): We have very little data to go from here and I’d never even heard of Lucas until I started looking at this slate. His numbers show a solid 3.64 SIERA with a 25% strikeout rate and a 12.4% swinging strike rate. He’s forcing 57.1% groundballs and an average 31.4% hard contact rate. Actually sounds like we should roster this guy right? Problem is the sample size is only about 25 innings. I’m not going to buy into him with only that much data available to me. Plus, he's not stretched out and there will be a pitch count on him today. After that, we'll get a middle of the road Athletics bullpen. The Mariners let me down last night but I'm going to go back to the well in this spot.

• Oakland Athletics (vs. Felix Hernandez): Hernandez is not the king he once was. He’s got a 4.38 SIERA with just an average 20.7% strikeout rate while allowing a 33.3% hard contact rate. The Athletics have a .185 ISO, .329 wOBA and a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Davis is less of a factor when facing right-handers. Oakland has seen Hernandez plenty in the past. Semien, Lowrie, Olson, and Canha all have a .200 ISO or better against them in their careers.

• Kansas City Royals (vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx): Who? He didn’t pitch in the majors at all last season. I looked at his stats prior to that and he has a 5.20 SIERA with just 12.7% strikeouts while allowing a 36.6% hard contact rate. A high hard contact and low strikeout pitcher against a team that doesn’t strike out in a small ballpark in very hot weather. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. The Royals themselves don’t have a lot of power but they should still be able to put up runs in this spot. They have the second highest implied total tonight for good reason. Sign me up for all the Mike Moustakas I can fit today.

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Marco Estrada): This is a bold call I know as the Angels have one of the highest implied totals on the day. I have NEVER had luck stacking against Estrada. When you see his fly ball rate you instantly get excited about all the home runs he’s going to give up. But, despite the fly balls, he manages to keep the hard contact low at just 28.4% and his HR/FB rate is one of the lowest of the day at 11.5% (which is still pretty bad and just highlights even more how bad the pitching is today). He always seems to manage to do just enough to not get completely blown up. You can roster some one-off players against him absolutely as he’ll certainly give up some runs but anytime I’ve ever stacked against him it just never works out. He eats up innings, limits the damage, and gives up around 3-5 runs each time he takes the hill. You might get one player out of the stack with really good results but not enough to win you that tournament. This is just my opinion here but I’m assuming the Angels will be popular today and I’m just planning to stay away.

Not a great slate. The way the games break out is just weird. There are only three games on the main slate, pitching is pretty lousy. My plan tonight is to probably take a few random shots in GPPs but otherwise, the volume I play will be super low. Might just try and get a head start on tomorrow’s research as Friday is always a huge number of games. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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