I guess Jason Vargas is better than Chris Tillman. Fortunately, despite a solid performance, a couple of Marlins players still returned enough value for cash games but the tournament stack definitely did not work out. Hopefully, you ate some serious Yankees chalk yesterday because it tasted pretty good. We have a typical 15 game slate for Tuesday to discuss. There are a couple of stud pitchers that stand out almost right away and a few solid value options that we’ll talk about. As far as the weather goes, Washington, Philadelphia, and New York are the biggest threats for rain. Washington is the worst with about a 40% chance of rain around first pitch. Wind, for the most part, is looking like a non-factor. There’s a mix of winds blowing in and out but lightly. Oakland is the only park with forecasted wind speeds in the double digits, blowing out the left-center at around 10 mph. A mix of temperatures with several games looking to be in the 80s and a few others in the low 60s and even 50s. All of this information is worth considering as you make your decisions for today. Make sure you give the weather another look closer to lock. Big slate so let’s get to work!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Chris Sale, BOS (@TB) (DK: $13.1K, FD: $11.5K)

The power pitchers today are pretty obvious and, surprisingly, Chris Sale is the most expensive on DraftKings today. I say surprisingly not because I don’t think he’s good but just because I would have expected Gerrit Cole to get that honor. Regardless, Sale is in an excellent spot against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. He faced them back on opening day, allowing just one hit and zero runs with nine strikeouts while only throwing 92 pitches. Sale continues to have outstanding numbers with a 2.57 SIERA, 34.9% strikeout rate, 16.2% swinging strike rate and only 6% walks. Today, he’ll face off with a right-handed heavy Rays lineup that has the ability to cause trouble for lefties with a .160 ISO, .330 wOBA and 110 wRC+. But, Sale is not your typical lefty. Against right-handed bats, which is what he’ll mostly see today, he has a 3.01 xFIP, 34% strikeout rate, and only 6.6% walks. He’s allowing just a .259 wOBA and 27.6% hard contact. Against left-handed bats, he has a 1.65 xFIP with 40.5% strikeouts and only a 2.7% walk rate. He’s only allowing a .258 wOBA and 21.1% hard contact to righties. The Rays are in for a long day. Sale is a -210 favorite, in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, against a team batting just .100 off him in 48 at-bats. The only question here is whether or not you like him more than our next option.

Gerrit Cole, HOU (vs. SF) (DK: $12.9K, FD: 11.8K)

Cole is my favorite pitcher on the board today. It’s nothing against Chris Sale, but I think Cole has the advantage. He’s also $200 cheaper on DraftKings. He’s the most expensive pitcher of the day on FanDuel. Cole is almost not human at this point in the season and the biggest question is whether or not he can continue to sustain these numbers. He has a 1.75 ERA, 2.09 SIERA, a 40.8% strikeout rate with a 16% swinging strike rate. He only walks 6.1% of the batters he faces. The negatives on Cole’s resume this season are a 47% fly ball rate and a 36.1% hard contact rate but he has the advantage of playing most of his games at Minute Maid Park which is the most pitcher-friendly in baseball. So, despite the high fly balls and the hard contact he’s still only allowing a 9.1% HR/FB rate. He’ll get a strikeout-prone Giants team today that goes down 25.1% of the time to right-handed pitching and only walks 6.8%. They have a non-threatening lineup with just a .152 ISO and .318 wOBA. When facing left-handed batters, Cole has a 1.40 xFIP with an unbelievable 49.5% strikeout rate so far this season. Despite 47.8% fly balls, he’s only allowing a .207 wOBA and 29.8% hard contact. To right-handed batters, he has a 3.18 xFIP with a 33.3% strikeout rate. Again, the fly ball rate and hard contact rate here are a concern, but he’s still only allowing a .244 wOBA and he’s protected by the massive park he’ll be pitching in today. Cole is a huge favorite at -270 and the current Giants lineup is hitting just .190 off him in 36 at-bats. He’s my top arm on the board today, my cash game pitcher, and someone I’d like to get tournament exposure to as well.

Value Pitchers

Garrett Richards, LAA (@TOR) (DK: $7.8, FD: $8.5)

I really wish this game was in Anaheim today instead of Toronto because then Richards would be an even better option. On the plus side, however, the hitter-friendly park may help drive down his ownership some and you can’t complain about his price today, particularly on DraftKings. He’s gone through some crazy price shifts recently being as high as $8.9K on DraftKings back on May 10th, then dropping all the way to $5.8K against Houston on May 16th in which he had an excellent outing, and now landing in the middle here at $7.8K. It’s hard to argue with his numbers this season where he has a 3.47 ERA which is closely aligned with his 3.73 SIERA including a 27% strikeout rate. The walk rate is higher than we’d like to see at 10.7% but he’s limiting damage with his outstanding 55.4% groundball rate so far this season. The Blue Jays definitely have some names in their lineup that make you nervous, which is why Richards is strictly a tournament option today. Toronto has a lot of power with a team ISO of .187 against right-handed pitching. But, they have an average .318 wOBA and 98 wRC+ and strikeout 24.1% of the time. This puts them firmly in the boom or bust category as far as matchups are concerned. To left-handed batters, Richards has a 3.24 xFIP with an excellent 31.1% strikeout rate while allowing 58.6% groundballs, a .260 wOBA and only 25.9% hard contact. BABIP is low here at .218 so expect these numbers to regress, but he’s still way better than the average pitcher across the board right now. Against right-handed batters, he’s got a 3.85 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate. The wOBA is a bit higher to this side of the plate at .320 and he’s allowing 41.3% hard contact but he’s still keeping 52.4% of the balls on the ground which should minimize the risk. The best part about this matchup is Richards' slider which is the pitch he throws most often (nearly 50% of the time). He has a 46.3% strikeout rate and a 19.7% swinging strike rate with the slider this season. The Blue Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball against the slider so if he gets it going today he should rack up the fantasy points. With the strikeout rate, the slider, and the high groundball rate, he's got massive upside today. I wouldn’t go here in cash but he’s firmly in play for tournaments.

Matt Boyd, DET (@MIN) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $7.9K)

Here’s my wildcard option of the day. Boyd is a guy that’s been on my radar for the past few weeks but I haven’t been able to pull the trigger. His last two starts both came against Seattle which is full of power right-handed bats that made me too scared to roster him. Today, he gets a Twins team that definitely has some power but they are pretty left-handed heavy and a much more favorable matchup. The Twins have a very high 26.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching with just a .158 ISO, .318 wOBA and a 97 wRC+. Their team BABIP is actually a bit high against left-handed pitching as well, currently at .328. This suggests they’ve been more lucky than good and those numbers could actually come down some more. Minnesota is a much less scary team against lefties without Miguel Sano in the middle of that lineup. Boyd’s numbers are respectable but not spectacular. His 3.19 ERA is excellent but his 4.27 SIERA suggests he too has benefited from a little luck along the way. He has a strikeout rate slightly above average at 21.1% but he also has a solid 11% swinging strike rate. He’s allowing 47.8% fly balls but he does a pretty good job limiting hard contact and therefore has an incredibly low 4.6% HR/FB rate so far this season. Against left-handed batters, the strikeout rate is relatively flat at 21.7%. He’s walking just 2.2% of lefties he faces with only a .54 WHIP and just a .186 wOBA allowed. The concern here again is the super low .182 BABIP which tells us these numbers aren’t sustainable in the long run. Against right-handed batters, he’s at 21% strikeouts while allowing just a .290 wOBA and only 28.9% hard contact. The BABIP here is at .287 so his numbers against righties are a bit more realistic at this point in the season. There’s nothing truly jumping out at me here but he’s got above average strikeouts and he’s been able to limit the opponent damage so far. He’s facing off against a team with non-threatening numbers against left-handed pitching and they actually may be worse than what we see on paper considering the high BABIP. He, surprisingly, is an underdog despite the matchup against Lance Lynn (I don’t agree with Vegas on this one) which should only further decrease his ownership. There is plenty of risk here but I like Boyd as a virtually unowned tournament play today.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• New York Yankees (vs. Cole Hamels): I’m going right back to the well today as they get a left-handed pitcher in the Texas heat. Hamels is a better pitcher than Colon, with a much better strikeout rate, but he still gives up a ton of hard contact, particularly to right-handed batters. The Yankees have a .221 ISO, .354 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They have a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. Hamels is going to have some issues today. The usual suspects are in play and don’t forget about Torres who is just crushing it lately despite batting in the nine hole.

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Jason Hammel): Hammel is having a terrible season with a 0-5 record and two negative fantasy point performances in his last four starts. He has a 5.33 SIERA with an 11.4% strikeout rate (lowest on the slate), a 1.47 WHIP, and he’s allowing 44.3% hard contact. The Cardinals bats should tee off on him today. Matt Carpenter is back. No idea what was going on with him at the start of the season but it seems to be a thing of the past now. Tyler O’Neil hit a bomb last night and I doubt the Cardinals take him out of the lineup given his recent success. The two of them are very much in play in addition to the usual guys like Martinez and Pham.

• Oakland Athletics (vs. Mike Leake): Leake has a 4.78 SIERA with just a 15% strikeout rate and a 1.53 WHIP. He’s facing an Oakland team today that has a .189 ISO, .333 wOBA, and 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Athletics also have a massive team hard contact rate at 39.1% against right-handed pitching. Leake is especially bad against left-handed batters so Matt Olson is in a prime spot tonight along with Matt Joyce and Jed Lowrie.

• Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Matt Koch): Koch’s last start was against this same Brewers team and he got shelled giving up nine hits and eight earned runs in just four innings of work without any strikeouts. That game was in pitcher-friendly Arizona. Today, he’ll be on the road at hitter-friendly Miller Park which only increases the chances of him getting rocked again. This is my favorite stack of the day. He’s terrible to both sides of the plate but especially to right-handed bats this season where he’s got a 5.26 xFIP with only an 11.1% strikeout rate, and allowing over 50% hard contact. I called two home runs for Brewers right-handers today so I love those guys. If Choi cracks the lineup he’s absolutely on the radar and Travis Shaw is a great option as well.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Tyler Chatwood): There are some positives and negatives about this one so it’s not my favorite spot but it’s worth a discussion. The Indians lose the DH today so it will be interesting to see who actually makes the lineup. That’s definitely something to watch. On the plus side, it’s a nice park upgrade going to Wrigley Field. There isn’t a line on this game yet but the winds are forecasted to be calm so no help there. Chatwood has a SIERA at 5.60 which is over two runs higher than his current ERA. He’s got a super high 18.3% walk rate and a 1.49 WHIP so far this season. The only real positive on his resume is his 51.4% groundball rate. Keep an eye on the Vegas lines once they are released and watch the lineup for Cleveland as well. I think this could be an under-owned spot tonight.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Jake Faria): Sneaky isn't really the right word everyone knows the Red Sox offense is legitimate. But, today is a massive slate and they are halfway down the board with just a 4.33 implied run total. Plus, especially on DraftKings, they are incredibly expensive (Mookie has become the first player this season to break the non-Coors $6K barrier). It will be difficult to fit in a full stack which should only drive ownership down even further. This will be the third time already this season the Red Sox have faced Faria, and their last time out he gave up eight earned runs in less than two innings of work with zero strikeouts. Granted, that game was in Fenway Park, but still, the negative park shift isn’t going to cause me to shy away from this Boston lineup. Get creative with stacks and figure out ways to fit them in if you can.

Big slate today and a lot of directions you could go in. For cash, I’m going Cole. I’m going to mix in some value from the Cardinals bats against Jason Hammel and, if the lineup breaks the way I want it, Brewers value bats as well. Then, I’ll hopefully have room for a power Yankee bat and/or Astros bat. I didn’t mention the Astros as a stack but I still like the power right-handed guys as one-off options and I’ll try to get some exposure in cash. They have the highest implied total on the board. Suarez is a hard guy to figure out as he gives up a lot of hard contact but he has good strikeout numbers and a really solid SIERA. In tournaments, obviously I like Garrett Richards and I think Matt Boyd is sneaky. I could also see someone like Kevin Gausman against the White Sox as an interesting option. Milwaukee is my favorite stack and I really like Oakland as well. I think both of them could go under the radar enough on this large slate. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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