Huge shout out to our good friend Awilson88 with his second consecutive top-three finish in our daily freeroll tournaments. I hope you're putting some real dollars behind these lineups! Hope you all had a great weekend! We’ve got an interesting nine-game slate on top for us today. I say interesting because of the pitching. I think we have some solid options, but this is one of those slates where nobody is standing out to me as a “must play”. Zach Greinke is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and Walker Buehler is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. I certainly don’t consider either of those guys to be studs. Weather is looking okay so far. There is one game with some rain threatening out in Chicago between the Orioles and White Sox so we’ll need to keep an eye on that. We’ve got some warmer weather with several games at or near the 80-degree mark and a game in Texas that will approach 90 degrees at first pitch. We can give a slight upgrade to the bats in those games. Very little winds to worry about today but, obviously, that could change. Always a good idea to check on the weather when we are much closer to first pitch as the information I’m giving you is typically as of 5 am EST time. Alright, enough small talk, I’m excited about tonight I had a busy weekend and didn’t play any DFS so I’m ready to jump back in. Let’s see how this slate breaks down for us.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (vs. SD) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $8.8K)

He checks in today as the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings but I believe it’s truly justified. He’s having a great season so far with a 4-2 record and just a 2.36 ERA and nearly 10 K/9. His SIERA is quite a bit higher than his ERA, which does cause some concern, but it’s still under 4 at 3.94 which is very respectable. He’s got a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 10.3% swinging strike rate. His walk rate and WHIP are a little higher than I’d like for a power pitcher at 10.6% and 1.41 respectively. But, he also has a very high BABIP at .326 and he’s forcing 52.1% groundballs so far on the season. He gets a matchup today with the San Diego Padres who are sneaky for power but still a pretty good team to target with pitching when it makes sense to do so. They have a very high 25.7% strikeout rate with just a .304 wOBA and 94 wRC+. As I mentioned, they do have some power with a .179 ISO and a 38.1% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. Those numbers are inflated a bit by a single player in Christian Villanueva who has just incredible power against left-handed pitching. To left-handed batters, Gonzalez has an excellent 2.67 xFIP with 30.8% strikeouts and just a 3.90% walk rate. He allows nearly 53% groundballs with just a .201 wOBA and only 20.6% hard contact. Hosmer, Cordero, and Janikowski will have issues today. To right-handed batters, Gonzalez has a less exciting 4.12 xFIP with a 12.7% walk rate and a 1.64 WHIP. But, his BABIP against right-handed bats is very high at .346 and he’s still got a 23.5% strikeout rate while allowing 51.9% groundballs. Plus, the only right-handed bat in this lineup that concerns me is Villanueva and I suppose you could add Margot to that list but I’m not going to back off of Gonzalez because of those two guys. This is a great matchup, Gonzalez is a -180 favorite, there’s plenty of strikeout upside in this lineup, and he’s my top cash game target on the slate today and viable in tournaments as well.

Walker Buehler, LAD (vs. COL) (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.5K)

Buehler is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel today and the fourth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. After a very hot start, he came back down to earth in his last outing getting through just five innings and allowing five runs (four earned) with seven strikeouts. Even with the less than ideal performance last time out, his numbers are very impressive so far this season. He’s got a 3.02 SIERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate and he allows 53.7% groundballs. Couple of concerns to point out here are the swinging strike rate, which is at just 8.4% and tells us his strikeout rate could eventually start to drop. He’s also allowing 39.7% hard contact but the sample size is still small enough that I’m willing to continue using him as we let these numbers shake out some more. The good news is, he gets a Colorado team that is much less of an issue when they are on the road. They have a high 24.1% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching with just a .153 ISO, .290 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and a 29.5% hard contact rate. Nothing to worry about there. To left-handed batters, Buehler has several positives including a 3.32 xFIP with 27.7% strikeouts while allowing a .294 wOBA. The red flags against lefties include a 10.6% walk rate and the 34.5% hard contact rate. To right-handed batters, he has an outstanding 2.27 xFIP with 32.3% strikeouts while forcing 61.5% groundballs and allowing just a .217 wOBA. Again, the downside here is the hard contact which is up to 43.6%. It's not out of the question he gives up a long ball with that hard contact but, hopefully, the high groundballs help eliminate that threat. He’s young and he’s got some red flags so he is by no means safe, but there are some solid numbers here, he’s a heavy -180 favorite and he’s at home today in a favorable ballpark. He’s on the cash game radar. You can consider him in tournaments as well but just know his pitch count can be an issue. The Dodgers seem set on keeping him under 100 pitchers per outing which could limit his upside.

Value Pitchers

Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. DET) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.4K)

Coming off a brilliant seven-inning performance where he allowed just two hits, one earned run, and ten strikeouts, Berrios finds himself in another dream matchup for his skillset against an extremely right-handed heavy Detroit Tigers team. He’s got solid numbers with a 3.58 SIERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strike rate so far this season. The walks are all the way down to 4.7% and he’s allowing just 27.5% hard contact. The one concern here is the very low .239 BABIP which should start to rise over time. He’s going to see a Tigers lineup today that will roll out between seven and eight right-handed bats (our current projected lineup has eight right-handed bats but I’m assuming Victor Martinez will also crack the lineup here). Against righties, Berrios excels with a 3.34 xFIP, 26.1% strikeout rate, while allowing only 2.7% walks. He's forcing 48.7% groundballs and only a .260 wOBA. To lefties, he struggles a bit with a 4.05 xFIP, an average 20.6% strikeout rate, and forcing just 37.1% groundballs. But, even then he’s still only allowing a .283 wOBA and 24.7% hard contact. If Goodrum and V-Mart are the only left-handed bats he sees today, I’m really not concerned about it. Detroit has only a .154 ISO, .310 wOBA, and a 92 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Berrios is a heavy -200 favorite and although he’s home today in a hitter-friendly park, it’s going to be on the cooler side in Minnesota which should help him out. Keep an eye on the lineup, if Detroit goes super heavy with right-handed bats as expected then Berrios becomes one of my favorite tournament options and he can be considered for cash as well.

Robbie Erlin, SD (@WAS) (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.5K)

This is my tournament-only, wildcard, fit-in-any-bats-you-want, pitcher of the day. Erlin will be taking the rotation spot of Joey Lucceshi who landed on the DL last week. The sample size we have to work with this season is small, and it includes just one start and 12 relief appearances but there are definitely some positive numbers we can pull out. He has a 3.46 ERA but just a 2.91 SIERA with a 23.3% strikeout rate and a 10.5% swinging strike rate. To left-handed batters, he has an excellent 2.89 xFIP with 22% strikeouts and a massive 71.4% groundball rate while allowing only a .277 wOBA. The red flag here is the 37.9% hard contact rate. If Harper or Adams happen to get one in the air it’s probably going far but that groundball rate tells us this might be easier said than done. To right-handed batters, Erlin has a 2.88 xFIP with 24.2% strikeouts and just a 1.60% walk rate. The groundball rate comes way down to just 37.8% against righties but the hard contact rate also comes all the way down to 23.9% which should help limit any damage. He’s allowing just a .217 wOBA to right-handed batters. These numbers sound too good to be true right? Just to be safe, I pulled a larger data set going all the way back to 2015 to see how things line up. He still has a 3.99 ERA with a comfortable 3.40 SIERA, a 20.8% strikeout rate while forcing 47.6% groundballs. The larger sample size numbers describe more of an average pitcher then his current season statistics are indicating, so we need to proceed with caution. This is a five to ten percent ownership kind of play where you will still be overweight cause nobody else will roster him. The biggest surprise of all is that Washington, despite being a loaded lineup, is average at best against right-handed pitching with just a .137 ISO, .297 wOBA, 84 wRC+ and a 24% strikeout rate. If he can manage to get around Harper, which we know is no small task, I think Erlin has the potential to greatly exceed his value in tournaments today. There’s certainly some risk but the possible reward makes him one of my favorite tournament options.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• New York Yankees (vs. Bartolo Colon): They will be chalk today but I’m likely going to eat it. A lot of it. It’s a fantastic hitters park and it’s going to be 90 degrees at first pitch. Colon’s ERA and SIERA are impressive but the rest of his numbers suggest he’s due to get blown up any time. This would be the spot. He has just a 16.6% strikeout rate and only 6.1% swinging strikes while allowing a 42.3% hard contact rate. His BABIP is incredibly low right now at just .204 which will never last. All the Yankee bats are in play today.

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Ian Kennedy): Kennedy is a pitcher who I’ll occasionally roster in certain spots but this is not a good matchup for him. He struggles with right-handed batters with an 18.3% strikeout rate and a 1.60 WHIP while allowing 39% fly balls, a .378 wOBA and 42.4% hard contact this season. The Cardinals are very right-handed heavy with some good power as well. Pham is my favorite, followed by Martinez, Gyorko, Ozuna and Harrison Bader if he gets into the lineup today.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. Hector Santiago): Santiago has below average strikeouts with a miserable 13.1% walk rate and a 1.58 WHIP in a very limited sample size this season. The Orioles have some power, especially against left-handed pitching, with a .174 ISO. All stacks start with Manny Machado, but Mancini, Schoop, Valencia, and Susac are all interesting depending on the lineup.

• Chicago White Sox (vs. Andrew Cashner): Cashner has a high ERA/SIERA with a super low 6.9% swinging strike rate and a 1.49 WHIP. He allows a 42.3% fly ball rate and a 17.5% HR/FB rate. He has weaknesses on both sides of the plate allowing a 52.9% fly ball rate and .385 wOBA to left-handed batters and a less dangerous 32.9% fly ball rate and .330 wOBA, but a 35.8% hard contact rate to right-handed batters. Palka, Moncada, Davidson and Abreu are my favorites here. Palka could be sneaky if he stays down in the order.

• New York Mets (vs. Elieser Hernandez): Incredibly limited sample size here but Hernandez has a SIERA of 5.10 which is nearly three runs above his 2.25 ERA. He has just a 9.10% strikeout rate while allowing 44.8% hard contact. The Mets have some left-handed bats that can crush right-handed pitching including Cabrera (.193 ISO), Conforto (.249 ISO), Bruce (.265 ISO), and Gonzalez (.181 ISO).

• Miami Marlins (vs. Jason Vargas): There is no reason for this stack to be sneaky against Jason Vargas but Miami has just a medicore 4.04 implied run total today (tied for 13th on the slate) and I think people in general stay away from the Marlins offense. Here’s the line on Vargas so far this season: 13.86 ERA (5.67 SIERA), 13% strikeout rate, 2.68 WHIP, 10.1% walk rate, 42% fly balls, a 23.8% HR/FB rate, and 38.5% hard contact. Laughable. The only thing working in his favor is the incredibly high .447 BABIP which obviously should level off. Still, I’m going to be heavy on Marlins today. I really like them for cash because they are inexpensive and should allow you to fit in some power bats and the pitchers you need.

That’s a wrap on today’s slate! For cash, I’m either going Gio or Berrios depending on the Tigers lineup and how my bats are looking. I really like the Marlins for cash game value bats. For stacks, I think I’ll eat the Yankees chalk today and figure out a couple of less expensive stacks to pair them with. Berrios is still my favorite pitcher and I will probably roll out a couple of Erlin lineups in large field GPPs so I can truly load up on hitters and see what happens. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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