Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

This is an awesome tournament slate. Yesterday, we had a slate full of great pitching options all priced in the top tier. Today, we have something similar, except most of these pitchers are priced more on the low end of the top tier and in the middle tier. This means not only do we still have tough decisions to make on the pitching side but we’ll also have tough decisions to make on offense. Unlike last night, it should be easy to fit in all the bats you want but with so few scrub pitchers on the slate which teams are we most interested in stacking? You could make an argument to stack basically any team on this slate. Even the top tier options of deGrom, Strasburg, and Severino aren’t safe. Strasburg and deGrom are facing low strikeout teams, in 80+ degree weather with the wind blowing out. Severino is facing the Astros, who are cold at the moment but could explode at any time. There’s a ton of directions you could go in today. Let’s dig in and see what we can figure out and try to narrow down our choices.

FYI today is a split slate and there are a handful of early games. For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on the main slate only.

Quick note: Since it's so early in the season I'll be using splits from the last two full seasons for data purposes. As we get further into this season we'll slowly reduce the 2016 data and start to add more 2018 data.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Jacob deGrom (vs. ATL) (DK: 11.5K, FD: 10.5K)

We’ll get the bad news out of the way first. It’s going to be 84 degrees with the wind blowing out between 10-14 mph. The Braves are a below average strikeout team at 20.4% to right-handed pitching with a .158 ISO and .332 wOBA. The good news, deGrom is an animal. He comes into today’s game with an ERA of 3.20 which is closely aligned with his 3.48 SIERA. He has a 12.4% swinging strike rate. He’s striking out left-handed batters at a 24.7% rate and only allowing a .284 wOBA. Against right-handed batters, he has a 29.5% strikeout rate while allowing a .294 wOBA and keeping the ball on the ground with a 47.6% groundball rate. There will be two schools of thought today when it comes to deGrom. One, his skill set far outweighs any risk the weather brings to the pitcher. The second is, the weather makes him risky and he’s a tournament option only. Normally, I would lean toward the first option as a player with his abilities makes me consider the weather less. Today, with the incredible number of other pitching options we have I’m going to go with the second option. I still love deGrom today and he has the highest upside of anyone on the slate but the floor is definitely lowered in poor pitching conditions. Since I don’t feel like I need him today in cash games I’m going to save him as a tournament option but likely one of my favorite tournament options.

Stephen Strasburg (vs PIT) (DK: $10.8K, FD: $9.7K)

Just like with deGrom we’ll get the bad news out of the way here as well. It’s going to be near 90 degrees in Washington today with winds blowing out around 8 mph. It’s less windy than it is in New York but the 90-degree weather is definitely something to pay attention to. The Pirates are a low strikeout team at just 19.7% to right-handed pitching. They have a .147 ISO and .312 wOBA to right-handed pitching as well. So, they strike out a bit less than the Braves but they don’t have nearly the power. Strasburg brings a 12% swinging strike rate to the table which has resulted in a 28.7% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and a 30.3% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. His allowed wOBA is similar to both sides of the plate at .265 to left-hand bats and .268 to right-hand bats. Given the less threatening offense, less wind, and the price discount I’m more likely to end up here in cash games than I am deGrom. Especially on FanDuel where he’s under $10K and actually the third cheapest option on the main slate today. He's also a heavy favorite today at -200.

Value Pitchers

Aaron Nola (@MIA) (DK: $9.9K, FD: $8.9K)

My favorite cash game option of the day is Aaron Nola. Now, I know what you’re thinking, I talked up Arrieta in this same spot on Monday and he got blown up. The numbers indicate that was an anomaly and more often than not pitchers will succeed in this spot. The Marlins have the highest strikeout rate of any team on the main slate at 24.8% to right-handed pitching with an abysmal .095 ISO and .271 wOBA. Nola brings his high 52% groundball rate and his low 27% hard contact allowed against this weak offense in one of the better pitcher’s parks in the league. He has a 20.6% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and a 29.6% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. He doesn't have the same upside as the two previously mentioned guys (or several others today) but he’s too cheap, especially in this spot, on both sites. He should provide excellent value and I’m going to have a hard time passing him up in cash games today.

Luis Castillo (vs. MIL) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6.7K)

Here is my favorite pitcher on today’s slate. There is some danger here, so this is a tournament only option, as the game is at Great American Ballpark which is a hitter’s dream and it’s going to be over 80 degrees. The Brewers, as we’ve seen the last couple of nights, can be a powerful offense. But, the good news is, they have a high strikeout rate at 23.4% to right-handed pitching. Castillo has a 12.9% swinging strike rate which is one of the highest on this slate and an impressive 24.9% strikeout rate. His ERA is a little higher than we’d like at 4.27 but his SIERA is a very comfortable 3.88. His downside is the hard contact to left-handed batters as he allows 35.8%. Travis Shaw, in particular, makes me nervous. To help with that, however, he has a 55.6% groundball rate including a 60% groundballs to right-handed batters and a 50.7% groundballs to left-handed batters. He gets hit hard by the left-side like we said but the hard contact comes down dramatically to right-handed batters at 26.6%. The ceiling here is massive and he’s incredibly inexpensive. He could get blown up, there’s no question, but if he’s on today I could see Castillo being on a lot of winning GPP lineups.

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Stacks will be a bit more difficult today. There's a lot of good pitching options and less obvious pitchers to attack. There's definitely some good spots though. Let's see if we can find a couple of sleeper options in here.

• Cincinnati Reds (vs. Wade Miley): Well, since I just recommended two Reds on the home run list I guess I’ll start with them as a stacking option. Miley is interesting because he actually started off last year really well before just completely crashing and burning. I’ve already mentioned the warm weather and how good of a hitter’s park this is. Miley has an unimpressive 4.62 SIERA and just an 8.4% swinging strike rate resulting in a below overage 10.4% strikeout rate. He has one of the lowest fastball velocities on the slate as well at just 90.7. Cincy has the second highest implied total on the main slate at 4.53.

• Washington Nationals (vs. Ivan Nova): The thing that stinks about this one is it will be crazy popular tonight after what they did last night. The Nationals have an implied total of 4.63 which is the highest on the main slate. We’ve already talked a lot about the weather in this game. Nova has a low 17.8% strikeout rate. He’s particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats where his ground ball rate drops dramatically and he allows a .353 wOBA and a 35.9% hard contact rate. Adams and Harper, in particular, should tee off.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Brett Anderson): This one is a bit interesting but I’m going to trust the larger sample size. Anderson has pitched extremely well at Triple A so far this season. In four appearances he has an unsustainable 32.6% strikeout rate to just a 2.6% walk rate. He’s also forced 65.2% ground balls. But, if we look at his history in the Majors, particularly last season, we see a different story. He had just a 15% strikeout rate with significantly fewer groundballs at 49.2% and a hard contact rate of 36.5%. The Mariners have some guys that can crush left-handed pitching. I’m going to side with Seattle on this one.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu): I think the DBacks could be sneaky today with an implied run total of 3.78 facing Ryu who has actually pitched well already this season. He comes into today with a 3-0 record with a 2.22 ERA. His splits from the last two seasons give me a reason to believe Arizona could put up some runs. He allows 38% hard contact to right-handed batters. We already talked about Paul Goldschmidt's ridiculous numbers against left-handed pitching. AJ Pollock can also do some damage with a .234 ISO and just a 12.7% strikeout rate to left-handed pitching. The sample size is a bit smaller but Ryu has even allowed a .377 wOBA in 39.1 innings to left-handed batters.

• Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Jose Urena): The Phillies have an implied total today of 3.78. They will take on Jose Urena and his less than exciting 4.94 SIERA, which is slightly above his 4.62 ERA. He has a very low strikeout rate at just 15.9%. He’s especially bad against left-handed batters where he has a 5.8 xFIP, 34.8% hard contact rate and just an 11.30% strikeout rate. This is another team I think could fly under the radar tonight with a lower total and a pitcher’s ballpark.

Sneaky Stack

• New York Mets (vs. Sean Newcomb): There’s really no stack I would put in the “fade category”. You could make an argument for both a Braves and Pirates stack despite the pitching matchup as the high heat and wind could get them into trouble. It’s still not likely to happen but it’s not out of the range of outcomes. So, instead of a stack to fade suggestion, I’m going to offer a super sneaky stack today. I wrote up Sean Newcomb as a value pitcher yesterday before he was scratched. Now, here I am today, suggesting you stack against him. Because there is so much value at pitcher, Newcomb doesn’t make my list. He has an impressive 24.6% strikeout rate and the Mets are much more suited for right-handed pitching as they have some power lefty bats in their lineup. But, they have some guys on the right-side of the plate that can do some damage and Newcomb’s high walk rate could really get him into trouble. He has a scary 12.3% walk rate. If he gives out a couple of free passes and Cespedes or Frazier get up to the plate with men on this game could get out of hand in a hurry. I’ll have some shares in tournaments today.

Is it 7:05 yet? I LOVE this slate. There are difficult decisions to be made both at pitcher and on offense. You could make a case for just about anybody today. It's going to make for really interesting tournaments tonight as ownership should be well spread out. With pitching, if you have a guy that you like, plug him in. I wouldn't worry as much about ownership. If I had to guess, Aaron Nola will likely be one of the more popular options given his matchup and less expensive price tag. I like him for cash but if he's going to be chalky I'll fade in tournaments. Similar to yesterday (thank you Verlander!) I'll be planning to roster whichever high-upside pitcher I believe will be the lowest owned. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. If you're playing NBA at all still I'll be posting updates on the second round breakdown throughout the week. Thanks for reading!

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