Happy Friday everyone! My last article of the week is a crazy one. We’ve got some weather, a few really good pitchers and a bunch of really bad ones. The Dodgers/Nationals has a serious threat of rain at nearly 80% from long before to long after the game ends. Not good. We also have rain threats in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. If you’re playing tonight make sure you are able to check the weather before lock as it could very well change your strategy. We also have a ton of wind around the league tonight and most of it is blowing in. Pretty much the same games that are threats for rain are also threats for the wind. Give an upgrade to the pitchers in those parks assuming the games play. We’ve got a massive 15 game slate tonight so let’s jump right in.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Sean Newcomb, ATL (vs. MIA) (DK: $11.5K, FD: $9.2K)

Wait, no Scherzer? Seriously? I’m operating under the assumption right now that the game between the Nationals and Dodgers will not play. The forecasts are showing a 90% chance of rain between about 3pm and midnight tonight. I think we find out early that the game will be postponed. If it happens to play, Scherzer is the top arm on the slate. You know his numbers and it’s a solid matchup. But, since it’s low probability he plays, I figured it would add more value to take a look at another option for the article today. With that said, this game isn’t completely out of the woods either but it’s looking much better than the Nationals/Dodgers. Just make sure to keep an eye on it. Newcomb has been outstanding this season. The only negative about him right now is the high walk rate but as we often talk about with young pitchers this is pretty common. He’s got a ton of positives with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 12.2% swinging strike rate and allows just a 26.8% hard contact rate. To left-handed bats, which basically is just Justin Bour today, he’s got a 3.96 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate and forces 44.3% groundball rate. Bour is always a cause for concern but Newcomb should have the upper hand. Against right-handed bats, which he’ll see a lot of today, he’s got a 25.1% strikeout rate while allowing just a .310 wOBA and 25.7% hard contact. Miami is a tricky team as they continue to outperform expectations, but the numbers still show a weak lineup with just a .117 ISO, .308 wOBA and a 94 wRC+. Newcomb is a heavy favorite at -190 and should produce a solid fantasy line today.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (vs. ARI) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $10K)

There’s a few really good arms on this slate but deGrom is standing out to me at his discounted price today on DraftKings. He’s the 4th most expensive pitcher behind both Charlie Morton and Sean Newcomb despite having a better SIERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging strike rate dating back to the start of last season. He’s got an ERA and a SIERA that are nearly identical at 3.22 and 3.37, respectively. His 29.4% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging strike rate are second only to Scherzer today. He’ll get a strikeout boost as well taking on the Diamondbacks who have a 25.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching which is the 4th highest on the slate. Against left-handed pitching he has a 3.51 xFIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate and allowing just a .291 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a 32.4% strikeout rate while forcing 47.4% groundballs and allowing just a .274 wOBA. Arizona has just a .144 ISO, .286 wOBA, and 78 wRC+ so far this season against right-handed pitching. Plus, they are going to be without AJ Pollock who’s a huge piece of that lineup. This game sets up as a really good spot for deGrom. He’s an excellent pivot off of Scherzer if A) the weather doesn’t clear or B) you think Scherzer is too expensive (on DraftKings). If the Nationals can get the game in I’ll do everything I can to fit in Scherzer but I won’t be upset if I end up on deGrom in both cash games and tournaments today.

Value Pitchers

Zack Godley, ARI (@NYM) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.5K)

deGrom’s opponent today is Zack Godley who finds himself in consideration on this slate as well. Godley has a solid line including a 3.53 ERA with a 3.78 SIERA, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 12.6% swinging strike rate. He’s also forcing 54.4% groundballs which are the most on the slate. To left-handed batters, where the Mets have a few power guys, Godley has an excellent 3.38 xFIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate while allowing a massive 61% groundball rate and just a .290 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a 3.47 xFIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate while allowing less but still above average groundballs (48.4%) and just a .300 wOBA. There are concerning bats in the Mets lineup but as a team they have an average .167 ISO and .322 wOBA. They strikeout 22.2% of the time to right-handed pitching. Plus, they are most likely going to be without Cespedes today. Godley is equally strong on both sides of the plate, he’s at Citi Field which is our 5th ranked pitcher-friendly park, the wind is expected to be blowing in around 13 mph, and the current Mets lineup is hitting just .190 off of him in 26 at-bats. Godley is checking a lot of boxes off for me today and is my favorite tournament arm on this slate while providing a nice discount off the power pitching arms.

Drew Pomeranz, BOS (vs. BAL) (DK: $7K, FD: $7K)

This is my wildcard of the day. Pomeranz is not having a great season but after what Price did to the Orioles last night I think Pomeranz is someone worth considering in tournaments. If we look at the larger sample size, going back to the start of last season, he’s got solid strikeout numbers with a 23.5% strikeout rate and he’s facing a Baltimore team striking out 23.5% of the time to left-handed pitching. To left-handed batters, he has a 3.87 xFIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate while allowing an average .326 wOBA. His BABIP allowed against left-handed bats is a super high .386 which tells us he’s been a bit unlucky so far and that wOBA (which really isn’t that bad) could be a bit inflated. Against right-handed bats, he’s got a 4.29 xFIP with 22.4% strikeouts while allowing just a .317 wOBA. Baltimore has some big bats, with a .174 ISO against left-handed pitching. But, they have a below average .315 wOBA and a 96 wRC+. In many cases they are either going to hit it in the seats or strikeout. If Pomeranz can avoid damage to the big bats it’s feasible he has a solid performance tonight. He’s a heavy -175 favorite as the Red Sox bats will be busy teeing off against Alex Cobb, and the current Orioles lineup is batting just .220 against Pomeranz in 81 at-bats. No guarantees here but I think this is a really sneaky tournament spot.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Alex Cobb): I’m sorry, I’m sorry. You all know I’m from Boston and I love the Red Sox but I swear I don’t recommend them every night because I’m a fan. I never let my own home town interests cloud my DFS judgement. The Boston offense is just seriously this good. They have a 5.61 implied run total tonight against Alex Cobb who allows a ton of hard contact and can’t strike anyone out. Every Sox bat that makes the lineup tonight is in play.

• Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Brett Anderson): Anderson has a 6.72 ERA and a better, but still not good, 4.87 SIERA. He’s got a low 14.4% strikeout rate and a massive 1.77 WHIP. He’s got a solid groundball rate at 50.6% but gives up a ton of hard contact at 35.8%. I already mentioned Josh Donaldson and you can add Solarte, Hernandez, and Smoak among others to that list.

• Chicago Cubs (vs. Homer Bailey): HIS NAME IS HOMER. What else do I really need to say about this guy? His parents knew he would be a terrible pitcher one day and named him appropriately. All kidding aside, he’s got a 6.14 ERA, a super low 15.1% strikeout rate with a 1.61 WHIP and allows 34.6% hard contact. Oh, and this game is at the smallest ball park in the major leagues. Every Cub is in play for stacking purposes.

• Chicago White Sox (vs. Matt Moore): Moore was in trouble the second he penned a contract with an American League team. He could survive in San Francisco, in a huge ballpark, with no DH to worry about. But now he’s getting shelled. He’s got a low 18% strikeout rate while allowing 41.6% fly balls and 37.7% hard contact. He struggles on both sides of the plate so, again, you can basically stack this team up and down (see a theme today?). Matt Davidson is my favorite.

• Oakland Athletics (vs. Marco Estrada): An extreme fly ball pitcher taking on a power hitting Athletics lineup is a recipe for total disaster. Oakland has a .187 ISO, .331 wOBA, and 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. There are a lot of stacks to use today but this one is probably my favorite. Start with Matt Olson, who crushes right-handed pitching, and build around him.

Sneaky Stack of the Day

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Derek Holland): There is no reason for a team facing Derek Holland to be sneaky but here we are. On this massive slate, with a lot of offense available, nobody is going to look at the Rockies today. They are not a good team on the road and this is a poor ballpark for scoring runs. But, Holland has a miserable line including a 5.35 SIERA with a low 17.9% strikeout rate, and a high 11.7% walk rate. He gives up over 40% fly balls and nearly 40% hard contact. The right-handed bats are the priority here so start your stacks with Story and Arenado.

The theme of this whole week has been the weather and that will certainly continue tonight. As I said before, if you can't be in a position to check the forecasts right up until lock then you should consider not playing tonight or scaling back. It's going to have an impact but it's just too early to tell where that might be. Similar to yesterday, there's a lot of stacks that I like today so just because I didn't mention them here doesn't mean they aren't a good option. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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