Enjoy all those great pitching options yesterday? Good, because today sucks. I’m not talking like “wow there are no studs available” bad. I’m talking like I’ve spent the last half hour talking myself out of writing up Jeff Samardzija as an option today bad. Fine, I’m exaggerating a little bit I’m not really considering “The Shark” but you get my point. Safety doesn’t exist today so be careful in your cash games. In tournaments, it will be a free for all. Lots of available stacks, tons of home run potential, and ownership should be spread out. I want to make something VERY clear before we jump into the recommendations today. I'm suggesting these pitchers because the numbers are telling me they have the best chance to succeed. None of them, however, are standing out as must plays and I won't hesitate to pivot away from them if it turns out they are going to be chalk. This is one of those slates where every pitcher has a path to being blown up and because of that, I'll be staying as far away from the chalk as possible today. My strategy will most likely be to roll out some leverage stacks against the high owned pitchers. I'll highlight these spots as we go through the article. Just keep this in mind as you're evaluating your options. As far as hitter recommendations, I’m going to give you my top options for stacks below as always but make sure you do some of your own research cause I like a LOT of stacks today and not all of them made the cut for the article. Just because they aren’t mentioned here doesn’t mean they’re not a good option. The good news is, after two days of trying to figure out the weather, it’s looking pretty clear today. Unfortunately, no really hot games, but we have a couple of games where the wind may play a factor and I’m seeing very little in terms of rain threats. Okay, sorry for the long introduction. Let’s jump in and see what we can find for our rosters today.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Tyler Skaggs, LAA (vs. TB) (DK: $10.4K, FD: $9K)

The Rays started this season hot against left-handed pitching but have cooled off more recently. The spot still makes me nervous as Skaggs is likely to see seven or more right-handed bats today, but there’s not a lot of power with a team ISO of just .159. He’s pitched really well so far this season with a 3.07 ERA and a 9.41 K/9 rate. Dating back to the start of last year, he has a 4.14 SIERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate. To right-handed batters, which is what we are mostly concerned with today, he has a 3.69 ERA but a 4.24 xFIP, with a 22.2% strikeout rate while allowing a .331 wOBA, a 43.9% groundball rate, and 33.6% hard contact rate. These numbers aren’t screaming for us to lock this guy in today but they also aren’t indicating that he’s likely to get blown up either. It’s not a ringing endorsement but he’s in good form recently, he’s facing a high strikeout, low power team, and he has the strikeout upside himself to put up a solid fantasy outing. He’s a -155 favorite today and your best bet for “safety” as far as cash games are concerned.

Value Pitchers

Luke Weaver, STL (vs. PHI) (DK: $8K, FD: $6.2K)

He hasn’t had a great season but he did show signs of life in his last start. I try really hard not to let recent results cloud my judgment, especially in baseball, so if we look at the larger sample size there is truly a lot to like about Weaver. Since the start of last season, he has a 4.29 ERA but a much better 3.76 SIERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate. He forces 46.6% groundballs and allows just 26.1% hard contact. He’s strong against both sides of the plate. To right-handed bats, he has a 3.25 xFIP with 27% strikeouts while allowing 48% groundballs and a .307 wOBA. To left-handed bats, he has a 3.90 xFIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate while allowing just a .287 wOBA and 45% groundballs. He gets a Phillies team today that has some power with a .161 team ISO, but just a .317 wOBA and they strikeout 26.6% of the time to right-handed pitching. Weaver is a -130 favorite, the wind is expected to be blowing in, and he’s at a pitcher-friendly park in Busch Stadium. You can consider him as an SP2 for cash games and he’s one of the better options for tournaments. The problem, unfortunately, is he’s a candidate to be popular tonight. This is a spot I'll absolutely pivot from and even consider stacking the Phillies if it seems like Weaver is getting a lot of attention.

Vince Velasquez, PHI (vs. STL) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8.3K)

Remember the spot for Jose Berrios against the Cardinals that we really liked earlier this week? It worked out well for us as Berrios went seven innings allowing just two hits and one earned run with ten strikeouts. This is almost exactly the same thing today for Vince Velasquez who is excellent against right-handed batters. Since the start of last season, he has a 25.1% strikeout rate and allows just a .309 wOBA. This season, it gets even better with a 31.2% strikeout rate, while allowing just a .229 wOBA and 18.2% hard contact rate. He’s going to face a lineup with at least six right-handed bats today if not more. Against left-handed bats, the strikeout rate comes down but it’s still well above average at 25.7% but the downside is he is allowing a .417 wOBA. The good news is the only potential lefties he’ll face are Matt Carpenter (who showed some signs of life recently but is still struggling), Dexter Fowler who is also struggling and pushed way down in the order, and Kolten Wong who has zero power upside. This is another situation where the matchup perfectly aligns with the strengths of the pitcher. It’s a good ballpark as well. Despite being an underdog, I’m viewing Velasquez as one of my top tournament arms on this slate today.

Chris Archer, TB (@LAA) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $8.6K)

He’s way too cheap on DraftKings today at just $6.9K. But, it’s not a great matchup and he’s not pitching well at the moment. Going back to the start of last season, he has a 4.40 ERA but a much better 3.53 SIERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and a 13.5% swinging strike rate. That’s the lowest SIERA, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate on the board today. To right-handed batters, which the Angels will have at least six of, he’s got a 3.39 xFIP with a 29.2% strikeout rate while allowing just a .293 wOBA. To left-handed batters, he’s got a 3.53 xFIP with a 26.4% strikeout rate (although this season that is down all the way to just 14.6%. Still a small sample size but concerning). As always, with Archer, the downside is the fly balls and hard contact allowed which is at 40%. He’s prone to the long ball against lefties so Ohtani finds himself in a solid spot today. Archer is a dog in this matchup, with the Angles only striking out 20.1% of the time and having a .179 ISO, .330 wOBA and a 109 wRC+ to right-handed pitching. This isn’t the best spot, but he has arguably the highest upside on this slate. The big issue here, of course, is his price, particularly on DraftKings, is almost guaranteed to make him popular. This is another pivot spot where I won't hesitate to stack up the Angles if Archer is going to be a chalk pitcher today.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Kevin Gausman): The Red Sox once again have the highest implied total on the board. They have incredible numbers against right-handed pitching with a low 18.6% strikeout rate and a very high .203 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 115 wRC+. Both sides of the plate are in play for stacks today but Gausman’s batted ball data is actually worse against right-handed batters. He’s allowing an 18.5% HR/FB rate and 37.1% hard contact this season. Martinez, Betts, Ramirez, and Bogaerts would be the priorities but I love Benintendi and Moreland as well.

• Baltimore Orioles (vs. David Price): The Orioles are one of my favorite stacks on the board. They’ve faced Price many times and have hit him very hard in the past. This game is going to go over the current implied total of just 9. Keep an eye on it during the day and don’t be surprised if you start to see it creep up as we get closer to lock. I think Price will be one of the more popular pitchers on a slate with less than ideal pitching options which makes the Orioles more appealing as a leverage stack. They have a .178 ISO and 101 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Manny Machado, in particular, has owned Price going 11 for 37 with four home runs and a .999 OPS in his career against him.

• Atlanta Braves (vs. Jon Lester): I’m a huge Jon Lester fan. I loved him when he played for the Red Sox and I admired him when he beat cancer and came back to become an ace and start the All-Star game the next season. But, this is DFS, so I'm putting my admiration aside and admitting that Lester is not the same pitcher anymore. I think he’s in serious trouble today and this will be one of the few times I’m not cheering for him cause I’ll be heavily exposed to the Braves. Atlanta mashes left-handed pitching with a super low 17.4% strikeout rate and a .356 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 126 wRC+. Also, Lester’s ability to hold runners on is literally a joke, and everyone on the Braves not named Jose Bautista can run.

• Oakland Athletics (vs. Aaron Sanchez): Another favorite stack of the day that I’m hoping will go overlooked. Sanchez has a 5.39 SIERA, 15% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate and a 1.58 WHIP. Those numbers making him the ideal pitcher to stack against. He gives out free passes like they are candy and he can’t get himself out of trouble. The As have a .181 ISO, 104 wRC+ and 39.5% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. Olson, Lowrie, and Joyce are my favorites but all of these guys are in play.

• Texas Rangers (vs. James Shields): I’m not buying into James Shields' recent success. The larger sample size still shows us low strikeouts, high walks, and high hard contact. He’s particularly bad to left-handed batters with a 5.92 xFIP, 16.3% strikeout rate, 13.2% walk rate and allowing a .361 wOBA. The Rangers are loaded with left-handed bats including Choo, Mazara, Gallo, and Odor. The wind is also expected to be blowing out today around 12 mph. I love these guys in this spot.

• San Diego Padres (vs. Chad Kuhl): The Padres never scream “stack me” but you can absolutely make a case for them today. Kuhl is downright awful against left-handed batters with a 5.18 xFIP, 11.7% walk rate, a 1.67 WHIP and allowing a .382 wOBA and 40% hard contact. The Padres have some left-handed bats that could definitely take advantage of this opportunity. Hosmer, Cordero, Jankowski, and Lopez are my favorite options on this team.

Pitching today will be a crapshoot. There’s really no good way to put it. I think Skaggs is your guy in cash games. In tournaments, I would prioritize fitting in the stacks that you like and then take your favorite pitcher in the range of whatever salary you have left over. There’s really no reason to prioritize your pitcher in tournaments as none of these guys really stand out above the rest. My strategy today is to spend the day keeping an eye on which pitchers are being highlighted most often and then planning to stack against them. There are quite a few appealing game stacks today including the Red Sox/Orioles, White Sox/Rangers, and Athletics/Blue Jays. You can literally go in so many different directions with your bats. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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