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- Top MLB Plays 5/16 | A 3 to 5 Game Wed Main Slate
Top MLB Plays 5/16 | A 3 to 5 Game Wed Main Slate
Hope you like pitching cause we’ve got a lot of good arms on the hill for this five-game (that could possibly turn into a four or three-game) main slate tonight. There’s some weather we need to keep an eye on in Washington and Atlanta. To further complicate things, the Yankees and Nationals need to finish up their game from last night which is currently tied in the middle of the sixth inning so we most likely aren’t going to know their lineups until after lock today. The teams are scheduled to resume the game at 5:05 p.m. Wednesday, but with more bad weather in the forecast. Both teams will get to put an extra player on the roster for the second game. With the uncertainty of the lineups, this will be a game to avoid for hitters. Weather pending, you could still look at the scheduled pitchers. Differentiating yourself in tournaments tonight, from an offensive standpoint, will be a challenge. A majority of the field will look to avoid some of the good pitchers tonight and roster many of their bats from the Cubs/Braves game. In order to be different, you’ll need to roster some bats against some good pitchers. We’ll try to see where the best potential might be. This is a complicated slate, but also should be fun, so let’s see what we can find out.
Power Pitching Targets ⚾️
Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. NYY) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $11.6K)
It’s a difficult matchup against a powerful Yankees offense but Scherzer checks in as the number one option on the board for tonight’s slate. The Yankees have some serious power, but they are much worse for left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and they strikeout at an above average rate. Against right-handed pitching, they have a 23.4% strikeout rate with a .191 ISO, .341 wOBA, and a 113 wRC+. They are also patient at the plate with an 11.5% walk rate. Scherzer certainly has his work cut out for him but he’s up for the challenge. He’s got a 2.78 SIERA with a 35.7% strikeout rate and a 16% swinging strike rate while allowing just 28% hard contact. To left-handed batters, he has a 4.26 xFIP with a 28.2% strikeout rate while allowing just a .291 wOBA and 26.9% hard contact. The only knock on him here is the 50.9% fly ball rate. To right-handed batters, which the Yankees are full of, Scherzer is lights out with a 1.82 xFIP, a massive 45.4% strikeout rate and he only allows a .185 wOBA and 29% hard contact. Sanchez, Stanton and, Judge are dangerous on any given night but Scherzer is anything but your typical pitcher. Of course, similar to last night, the problem here is the weather. The east coast is still dealing with some storm systems and rain is once again in the forecast for Washington. Make sure you watch that right up until lock. Batters in games with a PPD is always risky but pitchers are even worse. Regardless, assuming this game plays, Scherzer is your top arm on a slate full of good options. He's a -175 favorite and the highest upside option for both cash and tournaments today.
Chris Sale, BOS (vs. OAK) (DK: $11.8, FD: $11.4)
Last week we had a slate with Scherzer, Sale, and Verlander and I did a side by side comparison before settling on Scherzer and Verlander as the options. Tonight, I’m taking Sale over Verlander. If you recall, the last time was purely a matchup decision and today is pretty much the same thing. Verlander is taking on a tough Angels team today with a low strikeout rate and some solid power. Sale gets an Athletics team who has a few guys that can hit left-handers well, but they have a low 6.4% walk rate and a high 23.5% strikeout rate. They’ve got a team .153 ISO and a .320 wOBA which are both lower than the Angels. Sale has a 2.57 SIERA, which is lower than Scherzer, a 35.8% strikeout rate, which is actually higher than Scherzer, and a 15.3% swinging strike rate. He allows just 5% walks which is tough for a team without much plate discipline like Oakland. Against left-handed batters, Sale has a 2.80 xFIP with a 32.9% strikeout rate while forcing 45% groundballs and allowing just a .243 wOBA and only 18.6% hard contact. To right-handed batters, he has a 2.64 xFIP with a 36.3% strikeout rate while allowing only a .263 wOBA. Khris Davis always makes me nervous against a lefty but Sale is not your average southpaw. He’s the largest favorite on the board at -250, the current Oakland lineup has a .220 average against him in 50 at-bats, and he’s allowing an average exit velocity of just 86.5 mph. Boston weather is looking like less of an issue so he’s a quick pivot from Scherzer in cash if you need it.
Value Pitchers
Walker Buehler, LAD (@MIA) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9.5K)
The Dodgers really setup their prospect for success. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence but since being called up Buehler has faced the Marlins, Giants, Padres, Reds, and now he gets the Marlins again. Not only are almost all those teams in last place, but he’s also faced them in all pitcher friendly parks including at home, in San Francisco, in San Diego, and now in Miami. I’ll be real curious to see how he performs when he gets a powerful offense in a small stadium, but for now I’ll be rostering him again in another perfect spot today. The Marlins have a low walk rate of 6.8% and the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 24.2%. They hit it on the ground 50.5% of the time with just a .106 ISO and .272 wOBA. Buehler has a nearly identical ERA and SIERA of 3.45 and 3.42, respectively. He’s got a 30% strikeout rate and is forcing 58.7% groundballs. To right-handed batters, which he’ll see a bunch of today, he’s got a 3.28 xFIP with a 28.6% strikeout rate while allowing a whopping 63.4% groundballs. To left-handed batters, basically just Justin Bour, Buehler still has a 31.7% strikeout rate and forces 52.9% groundballs while allowing just a .237 wOBA and 25.7% hard contact. I don’t know if it’s been the matchups or the talent just yet, but so far this kid is the real deal. The only negatives on his resume so far as the swinging strike rate which is at 8.9%. This means his strikeout rate will eventually dip. He’s also got a high 11.5% walk rate but this is pretty common for young prospects at that start of their careers, and he allows 39% hard contact to right-handed batters but there’s nobody in the Miami lineup that can really take advantage of that. I really hate it that he’s on this slate today in this spot because fading some of the top arms tonight will be difficult, but Buehler absolutely makes a case for himself to be considered today. One thing to note, he's yet to throw more than 95 pitches in any start which could limit his upside. You can still play him in tournaments but just be aware of that. He's much more suited as a cash game play until they let him throw it more.
Caleb Smith, MIA (vs. LAD) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $7.6K)
NOTE: Caleb Smith was scratched right before sending the newsletter. There are not many value pitching options tonight, if you're desperate, consider 'Trevor Cahill' for the salary savings, but it's an extremely poor matchup against Boston with extreme risk, the positive side he'll be low owned.
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Stacks on Stacks 🥞
Chicago Cubs (vs. Brandon McCarthy): Some rain we need to watch out for but otherwise the Cubs are in a great spot tonight. They have the third highest implied total on the main slate tonight at 4.7. McCarthy has a 4.53 SIERA with below average strikeouts. He’s worse to right-handed batters dating back to the start of last season with just a 16.5% strikeout rate and allowing a .343 wOBA. Both sides of the plate are in play but I really like Bryant and Contreras.
Atlanta Braves (vs. Tyler Chatwood): On the other side of that game, we have a Braves team taking on Chatwood and his 4.96 SIERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, awful 13.7% walk rate, and 1.46 WHIP. High WHIP and high walks make a great stacking target. He’s especially weak against left-handed bats allowing a .356 wOBA and walking nearly as many players as he strikes out. Albies, Freeman, Markakis, and Inciarte are my favorites but you can stack this lineup up and down.
Boston Red Sox (vs. Trevor Cahill): Cahill is pitching well this season but this is his first game back from a short stint on the DL with an elbow injury. That could spell trouble if he’s not 100%. His strikeout upside is a negative for the bats, but he also has a high walk rate at 10.8% and a high WHIP at 1.47. He’s a high groundball pitcher but allows a 26.4% HR/FB rate and 32% hard contact. He’s really vulnerable against right-handed bats which will be a huge problem against the Red Sox. He allows a 28.9% HR/FB rate and a .376 wOBA. All the Sox are in play but Martinez, Betts, Ramirez, and Bogaerts are the priorities.
Houston Astros (vs. Garrett Richards): Richards' price plummeted on DraftKings today all the way to $5.8K after being $8.9K in his last start. I think because of the cheap price he’ll be popular today in tournaments as a pivot off of the big three. This makes Houston a very interesting leverage stack. The Astros are underwhelming at the moment but they can go off at any point. There’s not a ton about Richards' talent that makes me want to attach him but if we dig in a little further something standing out is his hard contact rate allowed to right-handed batters. Last season it was 34.1% and this season it’s up to 38.8%. This makes the regulars for Houston such as Springer, Altuve, and Correa interesting plays.
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Elieser Hernandez): The Dodgers will get to face a rookie relief pitcher in a surprise start tonight. You never know how a rookie is going to react to a big start, and the Dodgers are going to look to knock him out of the game early. Regardless this is going to become a bullpen game as Elieser Hernandez is not stretched out.
That should do it! This is a complex slate for sure. Which high priced guy do you go with? All of them are in less than ideal matchups. How do we handle the Nationals/Yankees lineups tonight with the likelihood of not knowing their status before lock? I think I’m just going to avoid them all together. Sabathia isn’t the pitcher he once was but he’s not typically prone to getting blown up either. Clearly, we aren’t going to stack against Scherzer. That game really looks like a cross off to me which is tough when we only have five games to work with. Watch the weather again today. For tournaments, my advice is to embrace the variance. Everyone will be on the Cubs/Braves game on the main slate. I’m not against stacking it but just make sure you have exposure elsewhere in case it doesn’t go off. Ownership will be much lower in the other games. Personally, I think I’m going to be pretty exposed to Houston despite the risk. They feel like the team who is most likely to score runs tonight even in the less than ideal matchup. Good luck! As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!
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