Congratulations to the winners of Monday's Freeroll:

• 1st: ollujoe: 136.40

• 2nd: packerbackerdale: 124.00

• 3rd: Whitburg24: 116.00

We'll continue to host freerolls during the week throughout MLB season on DraftKings. Here's the link for today's contest.

• 1st: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

DM us on Twitter tomorrow @LineStarApp with your winning lineup!

This is me throwing out the game film from last night (and letting out a little frustration). One of the big differences between me as a DFS player today and me as a DFS player three years ago is I used to get all caught up in recent results and would immediately question my entire process whenever I had a really bad night. Today, I have a lot more faith in my research and have just learned there are going to be nights when things do not go your way. Last night was one of those nights. I had heavy exposure to the Indians and Rays in cash and then the Mariners were my top stack in GPPs. I’ve never seen so many zeros in my lineups before. But, I know my research was sound and if given that exact slate again I would have ended up in the same spots. It just didn’t go my way. Don’t panic, don’t change your process, just throw out the game film and move on to the next slate.

Today, we’ve got a monster 14 game slate to talk about and there are several weather concerns we’ll need to take into account. The east coast is dealing with a lot of hot and humid weather with winds, which is good for hitting, but also a lot of rain. We have flash flood watches in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Washington making all of these games very risky. Boston is expecting heavy rain and thunderstorms during game time. The good news here is this is Oakland’s one and only trip to Boston all season so they are more likely to try and wait it out and get the game in then have to figure how to reschedule a west to east coast trip for Oakland at some other time. New York is also looking at heavy rains and almost a guarantee it will at least start late. You’ll need to pay attention to this right up until lock. Make sure you have pivot plans in place in case you need them. I’ll probably scale back how much I play tonight to be sure I can manage all the potential edits that might need to be made if there are any last minute weather concerns. If you are more risk averse, you could certainly have exposure to some of these games as much of the field may not. It’s your call.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@LAA) (DK: $13.9K, FD: $11.8K)

Truth be told, I’m not in love with this spot. The Angels are a good offense and a low strikeout team. But, McCullers picked up the quality start and six strikeouts against them last night and Cole has been pitching just completely out of his mind this season so it’s tough to ignore him, regardless of matchup, when he’s on the slate. Let’s just stop and appreciate the line he’s put up so far this season: 1.43 ERA, 2.03 SIERA, 41.4% strikeout rate, and 16.3% swinging strike rate. Those are video game numbers. It doesn’t matter if he’s facing the American League All-Star team if he’s pitching like this you would still have to consider him. Dating back to the beginning of last season, he has a 3.64 ERA which is nearly in line with his 3.57 SIERA along with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate. The Angels are a pretty right-handed heavy team where Cole has a 25.5% strikeout rate and allows just a .279 wOBA and 27.4% hard contact. To left-handed batters, assuming Ohtani, Valbuena, and Calhoun make the lineup tonight, Cole has an even higher strikeout rate at 27.9% while allowing a .311 wOBA. The only poor number he allows is the 36.8% hard contact to lefties. The Angels have just a 19.4% strikeout rate with a .182 ISO, .334 wOBA, and 112 wRC+ to right-handed pitching so far this season. On most nights, I’ll plan to avoid the Angels bats with pitchers, but tonight with the way Cole is throwing I’m going to side with him. You could argue, given the matchup, that the floor is lowered in this spot and Cole is better suited as a tournament only option (there are some other, less expensive power arms in better matchups that we’ll get to in a minute). I wouldn’t try to talk you out of that. I’m not going to try and get cute here. He has the best floor/ceiling combo of any pitcher right now, he’s a heavy -175 favorite, and in case you need further convincing, the current Angels projected lineup is batting just .180 against him in 55 at bats. He’s your top arm of the night.

Zack Greinke, ARI (vs. MIL) (DK: $11.8K, FD: $9.5K)

For a fairly significant discount, in a more appealing matchup, you could opt for Zack Greinke today against the Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke carries a 3.30 ERA which is almost identical to his 3.40 SIERA to go with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate. He’ll get a nice boost today, as Milwaukee strikes out 24.5% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .151 ISO, .312 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. To left-handed batters, Greinke has a 26% strikeout rate while allowing just a .288 wOBA and forcing 47.7% groundballs. To right-handed batters, he has a 27.8% strikeout rate while allowing just a .280 wOBA and 44.4% groundballs. There are two issues with him that make me not as interested as Cole, despite a good matchup and the discounted price. First is the hard contact where he allows 35.8% to right-handed batters and 37.1% to left-handed batters. He could definitely be prone to a long ball or two when he’s getting hit that hard. Second is the pitch count. Arizona seems determined to make sure their arms stay under 100 pitches. He’s gone over 100 in just one start and has typically fallen somewhere in the low 90s or upper 80s for pitches. This definitely reduces the upside.

Power Value Pitcher

Alex Wood, LAD (@MIA) (DK: $10K, FD: $8.6K)

Alex Wood gets his own category today cause I honestly didn’t know where to put him. On DraftKings, he’s too expensive to be considered a value pitcher but on FanDuel he’s significantly less and one of the better point per dollar pitchers on the slate today. Either way, he’s in a great spot today and really hard to ignore so I just couldn’t bring myself to leave him out of the article. He’s got a comfortable 3.55 SIERA despite being above his 2.92 ERA with a 24.3% strikeout rate and an 11.7% swinging strike rate. He forces 52.4% groundballs while allowing just 29% hard contact. The downside here, is he’s going to take on a very right-handed heavy Miami Marlins team. I’m hoping that the majority of players will see a left-handed pitcher taking on a team that’s going to roll out 7-8 right-handed bats and just back off. Wood, however, has solid numbers against right-handed bats with a 3.48 xFIP, 24.7% strikeout rate while allowing a .260 wOBA and forcing 50.3% groundballs. Miami, surprisingly considering all the right-handed bats, is very weak against left-handed pitching with just a .124 ISO, .308 wOBA, and just a 94 wRC+. The only power in this lineup is Justin Bour, but he’ll struggle to do anything against Wood (and might not even make the lineup) who allows just 19.6% hard contact to left-handed bats to go with a 58.3% groundball rate. Wood is a solid -162 favorite and he’s priced in between the expensive guys and the value options today which puts him on the edge of the cash game conversation and a really interesting tournament option who could go overlooked with many players looking to pay up or down.

Value Pitchers

Yu Darvish, CHC (@ATL) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.7K)

I want to stress that this is not the Yu Darvish of old. I’m not 100% sold that something isn’t potentially wrong with him. He went on the ten-day DL recently with the flu. That seems a bit sketchy to me. There is a risk here but his price has dropped enough now where he enters the conversation as a value tournament option. This season, he has a 6.00 ERA and a better but still not ideal 4.11 SIERA. He’s also having some control issues with an 11.4% walk rate. That’s the bad news. The good news is he still has a 26.4% strikeout rate which keeps his ceiling relatively in place for the moment. I’m always going to have interest in a pitcher priced under $8K with that kind of strikeout upside. Only a year ago, Darvish had a 3.77 SIERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate. The problem of course is he’s facing an Atlanta Braves team today that can be very dangerous with some left-handed bats like Freddie Freeman. Against, right-handers, they have a .169 ISO, .314 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. Because of the high walk rate, WHIP, and matchup against a good Braves offense, I’m labeling Darvish as tournament only and I think you could consider a hedge stack with the Braves if you decide to roster him today. Also, if it turns out people are drawn to the name, and he’s looking like he might turn into a chalky option, he’ll turn into a full fade for me. I only like him as an option today if it looks like he’ll be sneaky with people scared of him because of the health questions.

Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. STL) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.5K)

Berrios has not been good this season and he’s burned me a couple of times already but this shapes up as the perfect spot for him against the right-handed heavy Cardinals lineup. He has a 4.19 SIERA with 22.3% strikeouts while allowing just 27.2% hard contact and 7.1% walks (something he struggled with last season). He has trouble mainly with left-handed bats allowing a .329 wOBA and 40% flyballs along with a 4.97 xFIP and an average 20.1% strikeout rate. But, with a struggling Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler and a non-threatening Kolten Wong being the only left-handed bats available for St.Louis this is truly becoming a dream matchup for Berrios. The Cardinals, as we know, have a ton of right-handed power, but this is where Berrios shines with a 3.86 xFIP, 24.3% strikeout rate, a .274 wOBA and just 24.1% hard contact rate. It’s going to be a real challenge for any of these guys to do damage up against those numbers today. Berrios is a -120 favorite, firmly in the conversation for tournaments and I think you can put him on your SP2 cash radar for DraftKings as well. I cringed a bit after I typed that with his recent results making him feel a bit risky for cash but this spot just really aligns with his strengths.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Daniel Mengden): They are certainly in consideration today at hitter-friendly Fenway Park with the highest implied team total on the board but I think we are going to see that plummet as the day goes on. Heavy rains will bring cooler temperatures and the wind is looking like it will be blowing in hard. If this game does play, Mengden has a low strikeout rate and allows 33% hard contact. The Red Sox have a .202 ISO, .351 wOBA, and 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Francisco Liriano): They really let us down last night but I’m going right back to the well today. Liriano is one of my favorite pitchers to stack against cause when he’s off, he’s really off. He has a high walk rate of 12.2% and a high WHIP of 1.49. The right-handed bats are the priority with his 5.60 xFIP, below average 17.2% strikeout rate, 14.2% walk rate and .363 wOBA allowed. Lindor, Ramirez, and Encarnacion are standing out.

• Minnesota Twins (vs. Jack Flaherty): Flaherty, though the sample size is very small, is another guy who struggles with high walks (11.1%) and a high WHIP (1.53) which makes him an excellent candidate to stack against. The left-handed bats are the priority as Flaherty is actually really strong against right-handed bats with a 29.4% strikeout rate and only allowing a .298 wOBA. But, against left-handed batters, things really fall apart as he has just a 16.4% strikeout rate while allowing a .401 wOBA and 42.6% hard contact. I love Eddie Rosario today along with Max Kepler and Logan Morrison (assuming he makes the lineup).

• New York Yankees (vs. Gio Gonzalez): I said earlier in the article that Gonzalez is not a guy I typically look to attack with bats but this is just not setting up well for him. This is one of the weather games so you’ll need to pay attention here but if it does play it’s going to be hot and humid with winds blowing out between 12 and 14 mph. Gonzalez will need to face a murderer’s row of right-handed power and he has a 4.34 xFIP, 10.4% walk rate, and allows 32.% hard contact to right-handed bats.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Mike Minor): I’ve been on the Mike Minor bandwagon for the last couple of weeks but I’m jumping off quickly today. Seattle has a bunch of right-handed power bats (and a lefty who hits left-handed pitching really well) that could give Minor all kinds of issues today. In our projected lineup for the Mariners, spots 3-7 all have a .193 ISO or better against left-handed pitching. Minor allows a .204 ISO and 45% fly balls to right-handed bats.

• Detroit Tigers (vs. Cleveland Indians): I think the Indians bats against Liriano will get a lot of attention today and people will be likely to overlook the Tigers and another potentially watered down lineup. This isn’t a results-oriented pick, as the Tigers did surprise me last night with the success they had on Carrasco, but rather this sets up as truly a good spot regardless of what happened yesterday. Tomlin is equally bad to both sides of the plate allowing a .349 wOBA, 41% fly balls, and 35.5% hard contact to right-handed bats and a .378 wOBA with 40.5% hard contact to left-handed bats. He has below average strikeouts and an ERA at 5.45. It’s not going to be as hot here as it will be in other parks but the wind is expected to be blowing out around 11 mph and this game has a 9.5 O/U. I love the idea of a game stack here.

That’s everything! Busy slate today. A lot to consider. Weather will be a heavy factor in a lot of my decision making. In additional to watching the forecast make sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day. Major shifts will likely give you an indication of how the weather is shaping up. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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