Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

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• 1st: semaj89: 170.9

• 2nd: jackl43: 170.5

• 3rd: nickkel0098: 168

We'll continue to host freerolls during the week throughout MLB season on DraftKings. Here's the link for today's contest.

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DM us on Twitter tomorrow @LineStarApp with your winning lineup!

Welcome back! Hope you had a great Mother's Day weekend. Tons of good sports going on with baseball in full swing, the NHL and NBA conference finals happening, and Tiger Woods looking rather healthy in a very encouraging performance at The Players Championship this weekend. We've got an eight-game slate to distract you from the Monday blues so let's not waste much time. As far as weather goes, we have mostly cooler temperatures throughout the league. The one game to watch right now is in Kansas City where it will be 87 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out around 15 mph. This should be a nice upgrade to the hitters. There's a chance of rain in this game but not until later in the night and shouldn't have much impact on the game. It looks like the rain in Detroit will hold off until after the game as well but I'd keep an eye on that one today before lock. Grab a seat and let's take a look at what this slate has for us.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. MIL) (DK: $12.7K, FD: $10K)

Corbin is the most expensive arm on the board today on both sites but should be relatively safe in this matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. He comes in with a 3.82 SIERA which is slightly above his 3.63 ERA but still low enough that we don’t need to be concerned. He’s got an 11.8% swinging strike rate and a 24% strikeout rate while forcing 50.1% groundballs. He gets a Brewers team today who is less strikeout prone then they’ve been in past years at 20.7% but they struggle with left-handed pitching with just a .129 ISO, .277 wOBA, and 69 wRC+. This game is at Chase Field which we know now is a pitcher’s park so it’s a downgrade for the Brewers bats who are coming off a series at Coors Field. To left-handed batters, Corbin has a 30.9% strikeout rate with just a 2.72 xFIP and 52.6% groundballs. He allows only a .260 wOBA and 25.7% hard contact. This should make Travis Shaw’s life very difficult tonight. To right-handed batters, he still has an above average 22.2% strikeout rate with a very respectable 3.84 xFIP and still forces 49.5% groundballs. The wOBA comes up to .329 and the hard contact comes up to 34.2%. Players like Braun, Cain, Santana, and Aguilar are certainly capable of putting some hits up on Corbin but the high groundball rate and the very pitcher-friendly park should minimize any possible damage. Remember, you’re going to see statistics today telling you Chase Field is an extreme hitter’s park. This data is based off last season. They installed a humidor prior to this year which has suppressed the offense and dramatically changed how it plays. Corbin is a -150 favorite today and he averages 24% more fantasy points when pitching at home. The salary is still a bit high for my taste in tournaments but I really like him as a cash game option today.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE (at DET) (DK: $12.2K, FD: $9.8K)

My favorite option today, who I think is firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments, is Carlos Carrasco. He will get a right-handed heavy Detroit Tigers squad who is without Miguel Cabrera and has Nick Castellanos listed as day to day. Our current projected lineup has only two left-handed bats in it, both of them switch hitters. The first is Jeimer Candelario who is also listed as day to day dealing with a sore wrist and the other is Victor Martinez who I’m a big fan of but is just no longer someone we need to be worried about at this stage in his career. Keep an eye out on the Tigers lineup as that will be the deciding factor in just how heavy I go on Carrasco today. He has a 3.37 SIERA which is almost identical to his 3.35 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 13.6% swinging strike rate (both numbers are the highest on the slate today). Against right-handed bats, which is what we expect him to mainly see today, he has a 28.1% strikeout rate with just a 5.2% walk rate while allowing only a .273 wOBA and a 27.1% hard contact rate. The Tigers have not performed well this season against right-handed pitching with a .155 ISO, .313 wOBA and just a 92 wRC+ while striking out 21% of the time. Carrasco is the largest favorite on the board today at -210 and the current Tigers lineup is hitting just .200 in 122 plate appearances against him. He’s my top cash game arm and I can see myself eating some of this chalk in tournaments if we get a watered down, right-handed heavy Tigers lineup today.

Value Pitchers

Joey Lucchesi, SD (vs. COL) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.3K)

The Rockies are shifting from the comfort of Coors Field to one of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball at Petco Park in San Diego today. Outside of one game during their home stand, the Rockies bats failed to do much on offense and are pretty cold at the moment. This is a great time to attack them with the ballpark shift. Lucchesi has an impressive 3.43 SIERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’ll face a Colorado team that strikes out 25.9% of the time to left-handed pitching which is the highest on today’s slate. They do have some power against left-handed pitchers with a .184 ISO and .333 wOBA but remember this can be skewed since they play half their games at Coors Field. Lucchesi has a 35.3% strikeout rate with just a 1.38 xFIP. He forces 60% groundballs and allows only a .233 wOBA and 25% hard contact. Oh, and the BABIP is super high currently at .350 so batters have actually been getting lucky against him and he’s still producing those numbers. The left-handed bats of Blackmon, Parra, and Dahl are unlikely to get anything going tonight. Where Lucchesi will need to be careful is against the right-handed power bats of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story whom we know crush left-handed pitching. Lucchesi still has an excellent 24.6% strikeout rate with a 3.94 xFIP to right-handed bats, but the fly ball rate comes all the way up to 40% and he allows 42.4% hard contact. Both Arenado and Story are on the home run radar today but remember the ballpark will help with this. This game has the lowest total on the board tonight with Lucchesi being a very small -108 favorite. He’s a great tournament option today.

Sal Romano, CIN (@SF) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6.3K)

My wildcard of the day or as I like to call it the “find the cheapest pitcher possible that doesn’t make you want to throw up so you can fit in any bats you want in tournaments” option. There is nothing in the numbers that jump out at me about Romano. He has below average strikeout stuff with just a 17.5% strikeout rate. To left-handed batters, he has a below average 18.5% strikeout rate while allowing a less than ideal .338 wOBA and 35.1% hard contact. To right-handed batters, he has an even worse 16.6% strikeout rate while allowing a .326 wOBA and 29.8% hard contact. So, why do I like this guy today? There are surprisingly a few reasons. First, he’s mainly a groundball pitcher. He forces 49.6% ground balls including 43.5% to left-handed bats and 55% to right-handed bats. Second, he’s facing the Giants who have, at least for now, gone from one of my least favorite teams to use pitchers against with their typical low strikeout, high contact setup to one of my favorite teams to target. They are striking out 25.8% of the time this season to right-handed pitching, tied for second most on this slate today. They also carry just a .137 ISO, .304 wOBA, and 94 wRC+ into this game. Lastly, after being on the road at some more hitter-friendly parks recently, they come back home tonight in arguably the worst ballpark in baseball for power. Romano’s low strikeout rate should get a boost tonight with the Giants striking out so much recently and his high groundball rate should allow him to keep runs off the board against a Giants team with low power in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s far from a sure thing but he’ll be crazy low owned tonight and he’ll give you all the salary you need for the stacks you’re looking to fit in today in tournaments.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Kansas City Royals (vs. Ryan Yarbrough): Tampa Bay might be in trouble today. They have a reliever converted to starter on the hill that is still stretching out. He hasn’t thrown over 80 pitchers in each of his three starts. The Rays got pummeled yesterday 17-1 and used almost every arm in their bullpen in the process. Plus, it’s going to be 87 degrees with the wind blowing out at 15 mph in this game today. Kansas City doesn’t have the best numbers against left-handed pitching but their bats have been hot recently and this is a great spot for them. Yarbrough, in his small sample size, has reverse splits allowing a .384 wOBA, 52% fly balls and 33.3% hard contact to left-handed bats. Moustakas, Duda, Gordon, and Jay would be the priorities.

• Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Eric Skoglund): A game stack is very much in play here with the weather we already mentioned and two not so great pitchers on the hill. The Rays have feasted on left-handed pitching this season with a .166 ISO, .340 wOBA, and 114 wRC+ (the highest on the slate). Both sides of the plate are in play as Skoglund allows a .398 wOBA and 45.5% hard contact to left-handed batters and a .374 wOBA and 42.4% hard contact to right-handed batters.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Mike Fiers): The Indians are scorching right now scoring 6, 9, 6 and 11 runs in their last four games. Today, they get Mike Fiers and his 4.51 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP and 18.4% HR/FB rate. Cleveland has a .192 ISO against right-handed pitching and currently own the second highest implied total on the board today at 4.80. Fiers is equally bad to both sides of the plate so you can pretty much stack these guys up and down.

• Seattle Mariners (vs. Jake Odorizzi): The downside here is the Mariners lost Robinson Cano yesterday to a fractured hand after being hit by a pitch. That leaves a big hole in this offense. The good news is there is a chance that could lower ownership and Seattle still has plenty of bats that can do some damage. We talked in the home run section about Odorizzi’s struggles with fly balls and hard contact. I’m really feeling the Seager, Haniger, Healy, and Zunino 5-8 stack assuming that’s how the lineup shakes out. All those guys have home run upside against Odorizzi in this ballpark.

• Houston Astros (vs. Andrew Heaney): I could go either way on this one. On the one hand, Heaney has a 3.81 SIERA with a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 12.2% swinging strike rate. The upside for him as a tournament pitcher is there. On the other hand, he’s allowing a 1.50 WHIP, 28.8% HR/FB rate and 40.7% hard contact which means stacking against him is very much on the table as well. This is a situation where hedging makes a lot of sense if you’re planning to go here. If you build a few Astros stacks then leave yourself some room to roll out a few Heaney lineups. The usual suspects are in play for Houston including Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Altuve. Watch for Evan Gattis if he cracks the lineup as well he has a .214 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Sneaky Stack of the Day

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Sean Manaea): I guess the question is will it really be sneaky or not? The last time Manaea faced Boston he threw a no-hitter and Boston’s struggles with left-handed pitching are not a big secret. They have a .144 ISO, .298 wOBA, and just a 78 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Both of these factors could definitely drive some ownership away. If that happens, then I love the Red Sox today as we know this lineup is dangerous on any given night. Today’s game is also in Fenway which will not be forgiving to Manaea. He has a 3.79 ERA but a 4.31 SIERA. He also has a below average .287 BABIP which should start to come up as the season rolls along.

Good Monday slate today. Despite being a smaller than usual MLB slate we have some solid pitching options to both roster and pick on and I think there’s enough to work with that we can still differentiate ourselves in tournaments. In cash, I’m likely going Carrasco and then filling out my lineup with some value bats in Tampa and Kansas City who are in good spots today. I’ll want a piece of the Indians today as well. In tournaments, I’m really interested in the Mariners and I would love it if it’s not going to be popular. I like the Astros as well but I’ll probably have a few shares of Heaney for insurance purposes. That should do it! If you’re still playing NBA the second half of my conference finals breakdown will go up later today before game one between the Warriors and Rockets tips off tonight. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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