Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry

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Another disappointing night at Coors Field. What’s going on with the Rockies? They’ve only scored over four runs twice at home this season. Definitely gives you pause when considering your stacking situations. I was sitting very pretty last night with heavy exposure to both the Royals and the Orioles but then came back down to earth when the Rockies only put up two runs. We have Coors on the slate again today so we’ll have to figure out what to do with these bats yet again. I still don’t think you can completely fade as we know it can go off at any time but I’m definitely hesitant to go heavy on them right now. We’ll have to see how roster construction shakes out today. As far as the weather goes, we are looking at cooler temperatures around the league tonight which will hurt the bats and help the pitchers. The warmest forecasted game on the schedule is 76 degrees in Baltimore and we have multiple games in the low 60s and even high 50s tonight. No major threats of rain that we need to consider at the moment. The only interesting spot for wind is out in San Diego where we are looking at 11 mph blowing out to center which might help some bats in that big ballpark. It’s Friday, so clearly you should stop working early and start working on your rosters. Let’s see what we can find out for tonight!

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Max Scherzer, WAS (@ARZ) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $11.7K)

The most expensive pitcher on the slate is always worth a look whenever he makes an appearance. Scherzer carries a 2.82 SIERA with 35.5% strikeouts and a 15.9% strike out rate into today’s matchup with the Diamondbacks. Arizona has struggled against right-handed pitching so far this season with just a .155 ISO, .300 wOBA, and 88 wRC+. They have a low BABIP at just .273 indicating their numbers should start to get better over time but I don’t see any improvements being made today in this matchup. The best part about this spot is they are a high strikeout team with a 24.6% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching. Scherzer, coming off a 15 strikeout performance last time out, should absolutely flirt with a 10+ strikeout game again tonight. To left-handed batters he has a 27.8% strikeout rate while allowing just a .290 wOBA and only 26.6% hard contact. To right-handed batters, he has a ridiculous 45.3% strikeout rate with a 1.85 xFIP while allowing just a .189 wOBA. Incredible numbers. The only knock on Scherzer is his high fly ball rate of 47.3% (50.3% to left-handed batting) so there’s always a possibility someone gets a hold of one and puts it in the seats. It’s unlikely, however, and definitely not something that you should be concerned about. He’s a heavy -200 favorite and the top pitcher on the board today.

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. TEX) (DK: $13K, FD: $11.3K)

I had a tough time with this one cause obviously I was choosing between Chris Sale and Verlander for this spot. Sale is tempting as he comes with a $600 discount on DraftKings today. His individual numbers are better than Verlander with just a 2.62 SIERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 15% strikeout rate. But, Verlander’s matchup today is hard to overlook. He’s taking on a Rangers team that will go from hitter-friendly Globe Life Park to the worst hitter’s park in the league in Minute Maid Park. Texas strikes out 26.2% of the time against right-handed pitching which is the second highest on this slate behind only the Padres. The Rangers also have just a .159 ISO, .302 wOBA, and 82 wRC+. Verlander, meanwhile, has a 27.6% strikeout rate with an 11.4% swinging strike rate. To left-handed batters, he has a 30.9% strikeout rate while allowing just a .279 wOBA. To right-handed batters, he has a 24.6% strikeout rate while allowing just a .262 wOBA. You are going to look at the individual numbers and think I’m crazy for leaning Verlander over Sale. You’re right, in a vacuum, just looking at these two straight up, Sale is the better pitcher and he’s less expensive today. But, this matchup and ballpark are making the difference for me. Verlander faced the Rangers back on April 15th and threw eight innings of one-hit ball with 11 strikeouts. Sale faced the Blue Jays on April 26th and threw six innings of four-hit ball including two home runs and only four strikeouts. The risk for Sale is higher in this spot. It doesn’t make him a bad option today but if I’m forced to choose I’m going with Verlander. My strategy in tournaments will simply be to roster whichever player is going to carry the least amount of ownership as all three of them have the ability to put up a massive game.

Value Pitchers

Luke Weaver, STL (@SD) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $5.9K)

Weaver’s numbers stood out to me even before I factored in his opponent during my research this morning. His 4.52 ERA is not ideal obviously but his 3.75 SIERA and very high .327 BABIP are both numbers that indicate a pitcher who has been throwing the ball well and just getting a little unlucky so far. We should start to see that ERA come down closer to his SIERA as the BABIP starts to come down over time. Today is a good place for this process to begin taking on a San Diego team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 27.1%. They have just a .119 ISO, .284 wOBA, an 82 wRC+. Weaver has an impressive 25.6% strikeout rate, with a 46.6% groundball rate and allowing just 27.1% hard contact. To left-handed batters he has a 23.5% strikeout rate while forcing 44.2% ground balls. He only allows a 5% HR/FB rate, .290 wOBA, and just 24.6% hard contact to lefties. To right-handed batters, the strikeout and groundball rate both come up to 27.2% and 48.6% respectively. The hard contact and HR/FB rate rise a little but nothing to be afraid of. He still only allows a .311 wOBA. He’s checking all the boxes today with a great matchup, strong individual numbers, a -146 favorite, and he’s at a pitcher-friendly park. He’s a steal on FanDuel at just $5.9K. He's your top SP2 option in cash on DraftKings as well.

Andrew Suarez, SF (@PIT) (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.1K)

This is my GPP wildcard and I’ll start this out by saying I prefer him at home and this is a risky spot. But, Suarez is someone you should start keeping on your radar. Today’s matchup isn’t great as he’s on the road against a Pirates team that’s hitting left-handed pitching really well. They have a .199 ISO, a .344 wOBA, and a 120 wRC+ against lefties. Suarez, though the sample size is still a bit small, has some outstanding numbers. He has a 3.06 ERA and an even lower 2.89 SIERA to go with his 27.7% strikeout rate and only 3.10% walk rate. I do expect the strikeout rate to come down as his swinging strike rate is around 8% currently. He’s also forcing an excellent 53.3% groundball rate. To left-handed batters so far he has 34.8% strikeouts with a 2.30 xFIP, and 53% ground balls. To right-handed batters is where he can get into trouble, where he’s currently allowing a .377 wOBA and 60% hard contact. Again, small sample size and these numbers should normalize over time. He’s showing signs of an above average strikeout and groundball pitcher with low walks but who gives up some hard contact and likely the occasional home run. He profiles as the perfect pitcher for when the Giants are at home as the hard contact has less of an impact in their huge ballpark. If you want to go here today in GPP, you could, as he’ll be unowned and he has the skillset to put together a strong fantasy outing. This doesn’t feel like the best spot so there’s a lot of risks but his numbers stood out to me today and I thought it was worth sharing.

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Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Brandon Woodruff): There’s no line on this game currently as it was only announced yesterday evening that Zach Davis would miss his start today and Woodruff would be called up to make the start. Not a great place for a spot start. The Rockies should have the highest implied total today. They’ve been disappointing so far in this series but I’m going to keep going back to the well when they are at home. Woodruff has a below average strikeout rate of 18.7% and a 4.42 SIERA. This is a great spot for the Rockies to get the bats going.

• Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Chad Bettis): Bettis is a reverse splits pitcher which sets up well for some of the power right-handed bats in the Brewers lineup. This doesn’t mean you should stay away from the lefties but just keep the reverse splits in mind and prioritize the right-handed bats if you can. Bettis has a 4.80 SIERA with just a 15.4% strikeout rate. Milwaukee should put plenty of balls in play today which will spell trouble at Coors Field.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Matt Harvey): Matt Harvey will make his Reds debut this week after being acquired earlier this week. Unfortunately for him, changing teams isn’t going to help him. Dating back to last season Harvey has a 5.26 SIERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and a 1.66 WHIP. He allows a 20.6% HR/FB rate and 34.9% hard contact. To left-handed bats, Harvey has just a 12.1% strikeout rate while allowing a .426 wOBA and 38.9% hard contact. Prioritize Bellinger, Pederson (if he makes the lineup), and Grandal today in your stacks. The Dodgers will likely be my highest owned team tonight.

• New York Yankees (vs Kendall Graveman): Trevor Cahill landed on the DL this week, leaving Graveman as the Oakland starter tonight. The Yankees become one of the top stacks on the board. Graveman has a 4.67 SIERA with just 16.1% strikeouts and only 6.9% swinging strikes. He has a 1.48 WHIP which is a great number for stacking against. The Yankees could be a nice pivot off of Coors in tournaments today.

• Boston Red Sox (vs. Aaron Sanchez): I used to avoid stacking against Sanchez when he was an elite groundball pitcher that induced a lot of soft contact. But, he appears to be either still hurt or very broken cause things are not going well for him right now. He has a 5.29 SIERA which is well above his 4.19 ERA with just a 14.9% strikeout rate and a super high 12% walk rate. Left-handed batters are the priority, where Sanchez has a walk rate nearly equal to his strikeout rate at 16.3% and 16.9% respectively. He has a 5.19 xFIP and allows a .361 wOBA to left-handed bats. All the Red Sox are in play but guys like Benintendi, Moreland, and Devers would be the priority. Boston has a .210 ISO and .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Sneaky Stack of the Day

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Eric Lauer): I’m typically not a supporter of stacking teams at Petco Park but there are a few reasons I like the Cardinals tonight. First, the matchup. The Cardinals are a right-handed heavy team with some power bats and are always interesting when they are facing a lefty. Lauer’s numbers indicate a pitcher that is better than what we see on paper which is why there is some risk here. He has a 4.44 SIERA which is below his 5.79 ERA and he has a ridiculous .404 BABIP which will certainly regress to the mean as the season goes on. It seems as though he’s been a bit unlucky to start the season. Regardless, he still has a 10% walk rate and a very high 1.93 WHIP which are two of my favorite numbers to look at when stacking. He puts a lot of guys on base. One swing of the bat with several men on in a stack can change your entire slate. To right-handed bats, he has a 12.7% walk rate, with just a 36.1% groundball rate while allowing a .393 wOBA and 44.4% hard contact. Pham, Ozuna, Martinez, DeJong, and Bader all make for excellent options today. On top of the matchup, we have some wind expected to be blowing out at 10 mph. It’s not much but every little bit will help us at this ballpark. Lastly, have you ever noticed how late night west coast games just naturally carry less ownership? That should be magnified today with Coors on the slate. The Cardinals are my favorite large field GPP stack tonight.

As is typically the case with baseball this is another interesting slate that presents us with several tough decisions. Which high priced pitcher should I roster? Do I load up on bats in tournaments and risk fading the high priced pitchers? What do I do with Coors Field tonight? As for me, Scherzer is my cash game arm and in tournaments, I’m going to have exposure to whichever of the “big three” is looking likely to be the least popular. I’ll also have some Luke Weaver exposure so I can mix in some big bats. The “What to do with Coors” question is an interesting one for sure. I have to have some exposure there no matter what as I don’t want to be the person who hops off that train and then Coors goes off that night. Anything can happen in that park. I may limit my exposure as I’ve been heavy the past couple of nights and there are some other teams I really like today such as the Dodgers and Cardinals. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. Thanks for reading!

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