Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry.

I'm back! I'm going to attempt to cover both NBA and MLB this week since those NBA slates are getting smaller and smaller. We've got an awesome ten game slate to kick off the week in baseball. Ten games is a good size for MLB. It's not overwhelming but it's big enough for tournaments where there are plenty of ways you can differentiate from the field in tournaments. There's a good mix of hitters and pitchers parks. We have no rain in any forecasts. The biggest weather story will be Wrigley Field which could turn into Coors Field 2.0 tonight (ironic that Colorado is in town) with forecasted winds of 14 to 15 mph blowing out the left-center. Most of the outdoor games will have warmer weather as well including Minnesota which is expected to be over 80 degrees at first pitch. There's a ton of potential tonight. Grab that Monday morning coffee and let's get to work!

Quick note: Since it's so early in the season I'll be using splits from the last two full seasons for data purposes. As we get further into this season we'll slowly reduce the 2016 data and start to add more 2018 data.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Charlie Morton, HOU [vs. NYK] (DK: $10.5K, FD: $9.2K)

I love Morton today and he should be low owned coming off a poor outing and facing a dangerous Yankees offense. It's scary rostering a pitcher against them no question about it. New York has a .210 ISO and a .354 wOBA with a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. They do still strikeout 23.2% of the time to right-handed pitching and Morton has solid strikeout rates at 21.6% to right-handed bats and a whopping 33.1% to left-handed bats. To help him get past the trio of Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, Morton relies on his ability to force soft contact and ground balls. He's only allowing 25.5% hard contact and forcing 57.2% ground balls to right-handed batters. To get past the left-handed bats he has his incredible strikeout rate we already mentioned along with only allowing a .242 wOBA. The risk is obviously increased in this matchup and because of that I'm labeling this as a tournament only play. The Yankees bats are struggling a bit as of late so this is a good time to attack while most people will still be hesitant to use pitchers in this spot. There are also several good cash game options today which we'll get to in a second. But if he's going to be low owned, which I'm expecting, I'll be overweight on the field.

Jake Arrieta, PHI [@MIA] (DK: $10.9K, FD: $8.8K)

This is my favorite pitcher on the board today. Arrieta is living up to the hype since signing with the Phillies. He's solid against left-handed batters with an above average 24.10% strikeout rate. He's also only allowing a .254 wOBA and he's keeping the ball on the ground for the most part with a 46% groundball rate. He's dominant against right-handed batters, which is what adds to his appeal today facing a right-handed heavy Miami Marlins lineup. Arrieta is only allowing a .254 wOBA with 52.9% groundballs and just 23% hard contact to right-handed bats. He's also striking them out 22.4% of the time. Miami, meanwhile, strikes out 25.5% of the time to right-handed pitching with an abysmal .083 ISO and a .264 wOBA. Even better, this game is in Miami which is one of the better pitcher parks in the league. Arrieta is a cash game staple today, especially on FanDuel where he's only the third most expensive pitcher.

Value Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija, SF [vs. SD] (DK: $8.7K, FD: $7.9K)

Best matchup of the day is a tossup between Arrieta against Miami and Samardzija against the Padres. San Diego has a bit more power (.126 ISO and .290 wOBA against right-handed pitching) but they strikeout at an incredible rate of 28.3%. Samardzija's ERA is a bit scary but it's mainly due to one bad start his last time out against a much more difficult Washington team. His SIERA is a much more reasonable 3.73. He has above average strikeout stuff (which will only be boosted against this lineup) with a rate of 22.2% to left-handed batters and 21.9% to right-handed batters. He's much better against right-handed bats allowing only a .283 wOBA and forcing 48.7% ground balls. The left-handed bats are where he can get you into some trouble, particularly with the long-ball, as he's allowed 1.38 HR/9. The good news is outside of Hosmer and Cordero there's very little power to worry about in this lineup and the game is at AT&T Park which is dreadful for left-handed power. It's a positive park shift for the Padres going from Petco Park to AT&T Park but it's still very pitcher friendly. I like Samardzija as a tournament option today and I think he can be considered as a SP2 in cash on DraftKings.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS [vs. KC] (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.4K)

Rodriguez is off to a great start this season with three consecutive wins and allowing only three earned runs or fewer in each start so far. Today he is a heavy -230 favorite against a fairly weak Royals lineup that gets most of their power on the left side of the plate where Rodriguez is at his best. He strikes out left-handed batters at an excellent 28.4% clip including 12% swinging strikes while only allowing 25.9% hard contact and just .72 HR/9. Kansas City strikes out 25.4% of the time to left-handed pitching with just a .139 ISO and .308 wOBA. Rodriguez is solid against right-handed batters as well with a 23% strikeout rate and only allowing a .309 wOBA. He can give up the occassional home run to right-handed batters with 45.5% flyballs and 1.41 HR/9. There's not much power in this KC lineup, especially on the right side outside of maybe Salvador Perez. Rodriguez should cruise to another win today with somewhere in the range of 6-8 strikeouts. He's a great tournament option or another player you could consider as a SP2 on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchlist 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

• Trevor Story, COL – The current forecast is calling for 14-15 mph winds blowing out to left at Wrigley Field tonight. While certainly not Coors field, Wrigley is not a pitcher's ballpark by any means. I fully expect a home run or two in this game tonight. Lester is a great pitcher, but he can get tagged from time to time. Story is elite against left-handed pitching with a .331 ISO and .419 wOBA. Although I believe the Cubs ultimately win this game I like Story to hit one out with a little help from the wind today.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

A lot of possible stacks tonight. Here are some of my favorites but I could really add a few more to this list.

• Boston - Benintendi, Ramirez, Martinez, Betts, Devers: The Red Sox are the only team today with an implied total over five runs. Hammel has a below average strikeout rate which is going to make life difficult against a team that his already challenging to get outs on. Boston only strikes out 19.1% of the time to right-handed pitching to go with a .364 wOBA and .215 ISO.

• Milwaukee - Cain, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Villar: Finnegan is better against left-handed batters only allowing a .313 wOBA but he still only strikes out 17.2% of them and Great American Ballpark is one of the best places for left-handed power in the league. I wouldn't leave these guys out of a stack simply because it's a lefty on lefty matchup. The right-handed batters should have a field day with Finnegan's 40% flyballs and 37% hard contact. Brewers have the second highest implied total on the board.

• Philadelphia - Hernandez, Santana, Herrera, Hoskins, Altherr: I think you could stack up this whole lineup today. I'm a bit surprised their implied total is below four runs so this one could be a bit sneaky. It's not a hitter's ballpark but the matchup against Straily is great. Against right-handed batters, he allows 48% fly balls with 35% hard contact and 1.85 HR/9. Against left-handed batters, he's better, but his 5.12 xFIP suggests some regression is coming.

• Chicago - Almora Jr., Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber - I wouldn't prioritize Rizzo as Freeland has good strikeout stuff against left-handed batters but if you're building multiple stacks of the Cubs you should definitely include him. He still has the power with a .195 ISO against left-handed pitching. The rest of the Cubs right-handed bats are fully in play. The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley tonight. We don't have a total on this game yet but when it comes out it wouldn't shock me if they are the highest on the slate.

• Colorado - Blackmon, Desmond, Arenado, Story, Dahl, LeMahieu, Ianetta - Similar to Rizzo on the Cubs I wouldn't prioritize Blackmon or Dahl here in the lefty vs lefty matchup but if you're building multiple stacks you can definitely include them. This isn't Coors field but it's as close as it gets with the expected wind. Lester is a solid pitcher, but he's not untouchable by any means and can be prone to the long ball particularly against right-handed bats. I'm expecting a lot of runs in this game tonight.

Stack to Fade

• San Francisco - Posey, McCutchen, Longoria: I think people are going to stack the Giants tonight against Eric Lauer and in my opinion that's a mistake. Lauer's surface numbers that you'll see on the site today are not great but it's a small sample size. He only got 18 innings in AAA before being called up and his one start in the majors was at Coors Field. Talk about setting a talented prospect up for complete failure. I generally don't like to stack the Giants anyways. They are more of a hit for contact team than a power team and are set up this way purposely because AT&T Park is a terrible place for power. Each of these guys are in play as a one-off if you need them but I'm going to avoid the stack.

There's a lot of potential on this slate. I see several solid spots for stacks and just offense in general. Honestly, I could have added at least a few more teams to the stack list including Houston and Tampa Bay. I left out Houston cause they are so pricey and I felt like there was better value. I left out Tampa cause they are also priced up and I'm a little concerned about the wind blowing in. They are both viable options, especially in tournaments. There's a lot of directions you can go for pitching as well with both high priced and value options on this slate. Should make it easy to fit in whatever bats you want. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. If you're playing NBA at all this week I'll be posting updates on the second round breakdown throughout the week. Thanks for reading!

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