Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry.

We've got a full thirteen-game slate to prepare for on this Friday night so let's not waste much time. The first thing that stood out to me, at a high level, is we are dealing with a lot of pitcher-friendly parks today. Only 3 of the 12 parks in play (Minnesota, Detroit, and Boston) are really hitter-friendly environments. You could put LA, Cleveland, and Washington as more neutral locations. Plus, in Minnesota, it's expected to be 35 degrees with the wind blowing in so that game is a complete cross off. That means we are really only dealing with two true hitter's parks, a few neutral locations and then a long list of pitcher's parks. I don't weigh ballparks as heavily as other factors in my decision making but I still think it's worth pointing out. There are some weather implications to consider as well. I already mentioned Minnesota, we'll have warmer weather and wind blowing out in Kansas City, Washington, and New York (Mets). Those could be potential spots to find some hitting. Let's get to work!

Quick note: Since it's so early in the season I'll be using splits from the last two full seasons for data purposes. As we get further into this season we'll slowly reduce the 2016 data and start to add more 2018 data.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Gerrit Cole, HOU [vs. TEX] (DK: $12.1K, FD: $10K)

The most expensive pitcher on both sites today is likely going to be worth the cost pitching in the friendly environment of Minute Maid Park, the #1 pitcher park in the league. There's a lot of strikeout potential today, with Cole posting a 24% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and 21.1% to right-handed batters. His opponent, the Texas Rangers, strikeout 26.7% of the time against right-handed pitching. He's outstanding against right-handed batters with a 49% groundball rate, .287 wOBA and only allowing 25% hard contact. The issue with the Rangers is they can throw a lot of left-handed bats at you. Cole can struggle here allowing a .346 wOBA and 37% hard contact to left-handed bats. But, even with all the left-hand bats, the Rangers only have a .162 ISO against right-handed pitching. There's not a lot of power on the left side with Joey Gallo being the one threat. But he's more likely to go 0-4 with 4 strikeouts then he is to hit a home run off someone like Cole. There are a lot of strikeouts to be had at the bottom of this Rangers order. I like Cole to approach double-digit strikeouts today and put up the win in the process. I haven't even mentioned yet he's the largest favorite on the board today at -240.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS [vs. BAL] (DK: $8.5K, FD: $6.6K)

Bonus! One of our power pitching targets is also really a value pitcher today. Especially on FanDuel at only $6.6K. The Orioles struggle with left-handed pitching with a 30.7% strikeout rate and only a .300 wOBA. The current lineup is batting just .230 in 110 at-bats against Rodriguez. That's a big enough sample size to factor into consideration today. Rodriguez is not the safest or most consistent pitcher but he's shown elite stuff when he's on. He's a very good strikeout pitcher with 23.6% strikeouts to right-handed bats and 26.9% strikeouts to left-handed bats. Despite some questionable numbers against right-handed batters including a 4.50 xFIP and a 45% flyball rate he still only allows a .312 wOBA to go along with the strikeout upside. Against left-handed bats, he's much stronger, only allowing 26% hard contact and a 7.7% HR/FB ratio. Better yet, his results over the past season aren't necessarily indicative of his pitching performance posting a 4.28 ERA but only a 3.99 SIERA suggesting some positive regression is on the way. He also has the added benefit today of being a -210 favorite as his teammates will be teeing off against Chris Tillman. Similar to Cole, I'd expect Rodriguez to put up good strikeout numbers today and pick up the win.

Value Pitchers

Andrew Triggs, OAK [@SEA] (DK: $7.7K, FD: $8K)

The Seattle lineup looks so much less intimidating without Nelson Cruz in the middle of it. There's nothing overpowering that really jumps off the page about Triggs but there's also nothing glaringly bad that would make you immediately cross him off your list. He has respectable numbers with a 10.4% swinging strike rate and only a 7% walk rate. He keeps the ball on the ground about half the time with a 49.6% ground ball rate and only allows 29.1% hard contact. The downside in this spot is Seattle can get five left-handed batters into their lineup if needed. Even then they still only have a .128 ISO against right-handed pitching and this game is in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Despite the heavy left-handed lineup, Triggs still has an above-average 21.5% strikeouts to left-handed bats along with 48.8% ground balls and only allowing a .298 wOBA. Against right-handed bats, he has an excellent 3.69 xFIP with 51% groundballs, a .311 wOBA and only allows 25% hard contact. Like I said, nothing that really jumps off the page, but also nothing that makes me feel like he'll get into trouble today either. I'm pegging him somewhere between four and six strikeouts today, but with a quality start and the win.

Chad Kuhl, PIT [@MIA] (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.8K)

Kuhl has an excellent matchup today that should help him with a few of the weaknesses that would normally keep me from rostering him. First, he's in Marlins Park, our third best rated pitcher-friendly park. The Marlins are not a major threat in terms of bats (or in general). They strikeout 21.8% of the time, have a .303 wOBA and .129 ISO against right-handed pitching. Kuhl struggles with left-handed bats carrying a 5.12 xFIP, 10.8% walk rate, .372 wOBA and allowing 38.4% hard contact. These are thing things that would keep me away. So why am I interested in him today? The Marlins are very right-handed heavy. Our projected lineup only has two left-handed bats, with Bour being the only major threat to do any damage. If he can avoid mistakes with him he's much more solid against right-handed bats with a 4.07 xFIP, 20% strikeout rate and only .304 wOBA. Kuhl is a comfortable -130 favorite today. Similar to Triggs, I like him to reach a respectable strikeout number and eat up some innings while being able to pick up the quality start and win against a weak Marlins lineup that plays directly into his strengths.

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• Whit Merrifield, KC – Andrew Heaney will make his 2018 debut after over a year of rehab and recovery from Tommy John surgery. He's shown flashes of brilliance prior to his injury and I hope at some point he'll be a pitcher we can use instead of attack. For today, however, in his first start back, in less than ideal conditions, I'm more inclined to roster players against him. For starters, it's going to be 75 degrees with winds blowing out to left between 15 and 20 mph. Heaney has struggled with right-handed batters allowing a .453 wOBA, 48.4% flyballs and a 51.5% hard contact. I will say the sample size here is small since he missed an entire year and for some of that, he struggled until ultimately deciding to get surgery. This is not a lock at all. But, the conditions are very hitter friendly today and I'm not buying into the success Heaney had in his rehab start as it was in Single A.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Despite the mainly pitcher-friendly ballparks today there is a lot of possibilities on offense.

• Boston - Betts, Benitendi, Martinez, Devers, Nunez, Moreland: You can really mix and match just about any Red Sox player today in a stack. As I've said, Tillman hasn't won a start since May of last year. He's a low strikeout pitcher to both sides of the plate with high walks (particularly to left-handed bats). Hanley Ramirez will get the night off after leaving last night's game in the first inning when he was hit by a pitch in the wrist. I would think Mitch Moreland will slide in at first base today but this isn't confirmed as far as I know. Either way, the Red Sox have a Coors Field like implied run total today of 5.69. Fire them up.

• Los Angeles - Cozart, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Calhoun, Valbuena, Ohtani: You can really mix and match here too to help differentiate. You could do a more wrap around stack with Valbuena and Ohtani in the 7th and 8th spots and then finish it off with Cozart and Trout at the top of the order. Lots of possibilities. This will be one of the warmer weather games today with the wind blowing out to left between 15 and 20 mph. The Angels have one of the highest implied run totals on the board at 4.96. Jason Hammel does not have overpowering stuff he's a below average strikeout pitcher and particularly struggles with left-handed bats allowing 43.60% flyballs and 32% hard contact. Valbuena, Ohtani, and Calhoun are especially intriguing.

• Washington - Turner, Rendon, Harper, Zimmerman, Severino: Kyle Freeland is decent at holding down left-handed batters but not impressive against right-handed pitching. He'll also be dealing with the warmer weather and wind today. He has a very low strikeout rate of 12.4% against right-handed bats and allows a .346 wOBA and 15.4% HR/FB ratio. He's better against left-handed bats with a 28.2% strikeout rate and inducing 25.7% soft contact. But, the lefty he'll need to deal with today is Bryce Harper. Don't make the mistake of leaving him out of a stack. I added Pedro Severino as a tournament option here. He bats in the #8 spot which isn't ideal but he has a .410 wOBA and .190 ISO against left-handed pitching. Washington has a very respectable 4.91 implied run total today.

Stack to Fade

• Cleveland - Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, Brantley, Encarnacion: Marcus Stroman is one of those pitchers that I don't often roster in DFS but I also don't make a habit of stacking against him either. He's an elite groundball pitcher forcing 63.20% groundballs to left-handed bats and 59.3% groundballs to right-handed bats. He has average strikeout numbers but only allows a .307 wOBA to left-handed bats and .316 wOBA to right-handed bats. He also carries a very respectable 3.87 SIERA. The Indians are a strong offensive team, and Vegas is giving them some credit today with a 4.68 implied run total. I think this is a trap and I'll be staying away. There are plenty of other spots for offense today.

This is a fun slate. There's a lot of possibilities and some good value pitching options to help you fit in the bats you need. The Red Sox will be chalk all around today. Their bats against Chris Tillman and Eduardo Rodriguez's excellent matchup and cheap price tag. I'd have exposure to them in cash. You can definitely make a case to fade in tourneys, with the high ownership and variance that comes with baseball, and target other teams. The Yankees, Phillies, Royals, and Brewers come to mind as potential lower owned stacks who I didn't mention above. As always, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or you can find me on twitter @GP_Landry. I'll be covering NBA this weekend for the playoffs and then hopefully back for more baseball next week. Thanks for reading!

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