Tastefully curated M-F by LineStar fantasy expert @GLandry.

Hey everyone! My name is Greg I'm one of the contributors here at LineStar. I've been covering NBA more recently but with a couple of nights off before the playoffs begin I'm here today to break down the MLB slate! You can find me in the LineStar chatrooms @glandry or on Twitter @GP_Landry. We've got a very odd four or five-game slate tonight depending on which site you play on. There are actually eight baseball games today. The earliest game between the Pirates/Cubs is not available on either site. There is an early two-game slate on FanDuel starting at 6:10 pm EST for the games between the Cardinals/Reds and Tigers/Indians.

The main slate starts at 7:05 pm EST on both sites but DraftKings has left the late game between the Giants and Padres off. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on the games from 7:05 pm EST and later as that should cover the main slates on both sites. We have some potential weather factors that will need to be considered. In Washington and Kansas City the forecast is calling for 18+ mph winds blowing out to center and left-center and in Boston, we are looking at 13+ mph winds blowing at the monster. There's rain in the forecast for Boston as well but the PPD risk right now appears low. In addition, we've got a pitcher on this slate who isn't even in the player pool on FanDuel. Today was supposed to be J.C. Ramirez's spot in the rotation but he'll be undergoing Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of the season. Nick Tropeano is the next man up but he's only available for us to use on DraftKings (you wouldn't use him anyway but just shows how bad pitching is today.) So, our pitching candidates for today are narrowed even further. Okay, enough complaining. The good news? There should be some runs scored tonight. None of these pitchers stand out as must plays and the extra wind carrying the ball will definitely help us there. Let's dig in and see what we can do with this slate!

Quick note: Since it's so early in the season I'll be using splits from the last two full seasons for data purposes. As we get further into this season we'll slowly reduce the 2016 data and start to add more 2018 data.

Power Pitching Targets ⚾️

Jose Berrios, MIN [vs. CWS] (DK: $11K, FD: $9K)

You're not going to be overly confident in whatever pitchers you roster tonight. There's just no way around it. In my research today I found reasons to consider each pitcher and also reasons to stack against them. Berrios is not safe but he has upside and if he can avoid the "blowup inning" and extra walks I like his potential. He's the biggest favorite today at -185 and he's one of the only pitchers that will have the wind at his back instead of in his face. Berrios has a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters while only allowing a .318 wOBA and inducing 22.2% soft contact. He also can keep the walks under control against right-handed bats with a 2.36 BB/9 number. Where he can get into trouble is with left-handed bats where he allows a .350 wOBA and 5.21 BB/9. But, the White Sox don't have any overly concerning power left-handed bats that I believe will give Berrios trouble today. The floor on him is cracking but it's not broken while his ceiling is massive. He's my favorite option on this slate of mid-range pitchers.

Anytime you get to face the Rockies in their first game coming off the high of playing in Coors Field can't be a bad thing right? The negative park shift certainly plays well for the opposing pitcher. I really like the strikeout potential here, with Gonzalez posting a respectable 22.9% strikeout rate to right-handed bats and 21.2% to left-handed bats. The Rockies are striking out 29% of the time against left-handed pitching. Gonzalez is a heavy favorite in this game at -174. He's deadly against lefties forcing 54% groundballs, a .253 wOBA and only 25.4% hard contact. So, Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon (if he plays) are less intimidating. Right-handed bats pose some danger. He can be prone to the long ball allowing a 13.1% HR/FB and 32.5% hard contact. If he can find his way through Story and Arenado he should be in good position for a solid outing.

Value Pitchers

Chris Stratton, SF [@SD] (DK: $6.7K, FD: $6K)

It's a small slate and there aren't many expensive pitchers. For the most part, you shouldn't have too much issue fitting in the bats you need tonight. I'll make a case for one value pitcher. Stratton is a respectable -134 favorite against a weak Padres lineup in the friendly pitching environment of Petco Park. There's some strikeout possibility here, mainly against right-handed batters, where he carries a 22% strikeout rate. The Padres are striking out 25.5% of the time to right-handed pitching. He also allows only a .303 wOBA to go along with 47% ground balls to right-handed bats. Where he gets into trouble is against left-handed bats as the strikeouts come down significantly (16.1%) and the walks rise dramatically (13.4%). The Padres have the ability to roll out at least four left-handed bats (Freddy Galvis is a switch hitter) and even their starting pitcher today, Bryan Mitchell, bats left-handed! The good news, despite the low strikeouts and high walks to left-handed bats, he actually still induces a remarkable 22% soft contact rate and only allows 8.8 HR/FB. So, he might let a few batters on base but he should be able to keep the ball on the field. He's a sneaky option today though the upside is on the lower side.

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• Mitch Moreland, BOS – If he does play today, unfortunately, he'll be at or near the bottom of the order so this is strictly a GPP call. You could probably include him as part of a wrap-around stack with the dangerous top half of the Red Sox order. In 25 plate appearances against Gray, Moreland has a .573 wOBA and .706 ISO to go along with an OPS of 1.016. Each team has scored double-digit runs in the first two games of this series and I'm honestly not sure that stops today.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

You could make a legitimate case to stack almost every team out there tonight. If you're a multi-lineup player it's probably in your best interest to consider hedge stacks against your primary pitchers in case things don't go the way you planned.

• Boston - Moreland, Betts, Devers, Ramirez: If Moreland doesn't play then just simply add J.D Martinez instead. Let's remember that Moreland isn't a typical #9 hitter and would be closer to the middle of the order on many other teams. A wrap-around stack could help you differentiate in large-field GPPs and there's a ton of power in this group. Gray has struggled against a few of these guys in the past, he has an 18.2% HR/FB against right-handed bats, a 13.4% HR/FB against left-handed bats and the wind blowing out.

• Kansas City - Jay, Moustakas, Duda: You can throw one of the right-handed bats in here too if you want to make a full stack but I'm highlighting the lefties. Just because we can't play Tropeano as a pitcher today (at least on FanDuel) doesn't mean we can't stack against him. He has big trouble against left-handed bats with a 14% walk rate, a 52.2% FB rate, a .376 wOBA and 37.2% hard contact. Wind will be blowing out here as well.

• New York - Gardner, Judge, Stanton, Gregorius: I'm from Boston and I am a Red Sox fan. If you knew that at the beginning of the article then you would have assumed it took me this long not to mention any Yankees players just because I don't like them. But, I'm a DFS player and writer and there is no room for bias when we are trying to make money. In fact, I stacked the Yankees against Price yesterday and that worked out very well. It's taken me this long to mention the Yankees because nobody is completely jumping off the page. Porcello is a pretty good real-life pitcher with above average strikeout stuff and only allowing a .313 wOBA to right-handed bats and a .308 wOBA to left-handed bats. With that said, he can be prone to the long ball, this is the rubber match of what's been an intense series, and hitter-friendly Fenway will have the wind blowing out to left. You may be asking why I included Brett Gardner instead of Gary Sanchez in this stack. In 33 plate appearances, Gardner has a .412 wOBA and a .290 ISO against Porcello. Hoping people will overlook this and he's a sneaky part of this stack.

• Minnesota - Dozier, Sano, Morrison, Kepler: The most appealing part of this stack, other than facing Lucas Giolito, is how inexpensive it is. Morrison is one of the best values on the board today on both sites. These guys don't bat one right behind the other in the order but they have the most power in the lineup and the players in between should be able to get on base. Giolito allows over 35% hard contact and over 20% HR/FB to both sides of the plate to go along with a low strikeout rate. If he gets into trouble he'll have a really hard time getting out of it without damage.

• Los Angeles - Cozart, Trout, Upton, Pujols:  Ian Kennedy has really good strikeout numbers against right-handed batting with a 23.1% strikeout rate. You would think that favors him against this right-handed heavy team. The problem is the Angels only strikeout 16% of the time against right-handed pitching. Kennedy is also an extreme flyball pitcher allowing 51.9% to left-handed bats and 42.9% to right-handed bats. When batters make contact, like the Angels are so good at, he gets hit hard with a 42% hard contact rate. All of this factored in with the wind is a recipe for disaster for Kennedy today.

Stack to Fade

• San Francisco - McCutchen, Posey, Longoria, Belt: Bryan Mitchell can't strike anyone out. He has an 8.9% strikeout rate and a 5.7% swinging strike rate. He is, however, an elite groundball pitcher forcing 54.4% groundballs along with only a 26.1% hard contact rate. Pitching in San Diego is perfect for him as he should be able to always keep the ball in the park. He'll let guys on base (walks are a problem) so you could definitely target these guys in cash games. But the upside for home runs and big plays is definitely reduced in this matchup. The Giants don't have overbearing power. They are a make contact and get on base kind of team.  

Pitching is a crapshoot today. There's really no nice way to put it. There are some guys who have upside potential but I could make a case to play batters against them as well (not in the same lineup of course.) Bats will be fun. There's a lot of different directions you can go. I think people will stay away from the Angels because Ian Kennedy is off to a hot start but that hard contact and fly ball rate against the Angels lineup who never strike out is scary. I think a game stack is in play between those two teams.

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