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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesdays usually feature a pretty even split between afternoon and evening baseball, but this time around, most of the action resides on the main slate – seven games on DraftKings and 11 on FanDuel, with the latter including the four matchups in the 6:00 PM ET window. Regardless of which site you're playing on, it shapes up as a solid slate featuring a good mix of pitching and hitting/stack options. FanDuel, of course, offers a few more lineup paths with eight additional teams in play. We'll also have a few weather situations to monitor, though a postponement in any of those games would come as a sizable surprise. Still, be sure to keep an eye on the at-risk games, which we'll break down in the weather section below. With that, let's dive into today's slate. Best of luck!

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Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/5 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• LAA at BAL (6:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): FD slate only. A few lingering showers could still be around early, but they should be wrapping up by first pitch. Outside of some minimal delay risk, this game should play without issue.

• ATH at CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD slate only. Mid-80s temps with light winds OUT to left.

• WAS at PHI (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD slate only. Some heavier showers could move through during the evening, so a delay is certainly possible. Still, the expectation is that they'll be able to get this game in one way or another.

• CWS at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees with light winds OUT to center.

• MIA at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some rain could be around early, so a late start isn't out of the question. Once things get going, however, the forecast looks good enough to play uninterrupted.

• MIN at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The game should begin dry, but there's some moderate concern for storms later in the evening. The hope is that any heavier rain holds off until after the game, though a late-inning delay remains a possibility if storms arrive a bit earlier than expected.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. CWS

A case can be made for and against each of the higher-end pitching options today, but Gray feels like one of the more reliable choices on the slate. Dating back to May 13th (14 GS, 85.2 IP), he has posted a 2.73 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .674 opp OPS, 24.3% kRate, and 6.7% BB%. Those aren't quite frontline ace numbers, but it's difficult to complain about that level of production over nearly three months of work.

The matchup is favorable as well. Against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, the White Sox rank 20th or worse in AVG (.205), OPS (.670), wOBA (.295), and wRC+ (88) while posting the eighth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%). While the average has been poor, Chicago has still flashed some power, as its .178 ISO ranks fifth in MLB during that span. Fortunately, Gray has done an excellent job limiting home runs, especially at home where he's surrendered just five across 56.1 innings (0.80 HR/9). Boston is only a modest -128 favorite due to the White Sox rolling out a strong starter of their own – LHP Sean Burke. But given the Red Sox's incredible 24-3 run since July 3rd, Gray has a strong chance to pick up the win bonus as well.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), MIL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | vs. PIT

We've got the makings of a fun pitcher's duel here with Harrison making his return and Paul Skenes taking the ball for Pittsburgh. Harrison landed on the IL on July 11th with left forearm tightness, but he needed just one rehab start and roughly three weeks to make it back to a big league mound. He tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while throwing 68 pitches in that rehab outing. There hasn't been any official word on his workload tonight, though something in the neighborhood of 80 pitches feels like a reasonable expectation. Harrison was regularly priced in the $10k range on both sites before the injury, so those expected limitations are largely “baked” into today's salaries. Across 17 starts this season, he has posted an excellent 3.01 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 29.6% kRate, and 5.9% BB%. His 117 Pitching+ rating also ranks fifth among all MLB starters (min. 80.0 IP).

The matchup is favorable as well. While the Pirates have been one of baseball's better offenses overall this season, they haven't done much damage against left-handed pitching lately. Over the last month, they rank below average (16th or worse) in OPS, wOBA, and ISO while posting a fairly ordinary 21.9% kRate. Harrison also dominated this lineup back on April 26th, firing six scoreless innings while allowing just two baserunners (1 H, 1 BB) and piling up 12 strikeouts. He threw 101 pitches that day, so expecting a repeat would be unrealistic, but it's a matchup that clearly suits him well. Unsurprisingly, with Skenes on the other side, this game carries the slate's lowest over/under (7.0), and Pittsburgh owns the lowest implied run total (3.3).

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIN

Note: Monitor weather for this game.

Outside of getting shelled by the Padres a couple of weeks ago, Cameron has been in excellent form. Even with that rough outing (5.0 IP, 7 ER) mixed in, he has posted a 3.66 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, .202 BAA, .647 opp OPS, and a 24.8% kRate across his last five starts. He'll face the Twins for a second consecutive outing, which always introduces a bit of added risk since the lineup just got another look at him. That said, Cameron has owned this matchup all season. Across three starts against Minnesota, he has recorded a microscopic 0.47 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 0.58 WHIP, .121 BAA, .311 opp OPS, and a 27.5% kRate.

Minnesota has been fairly average against left-handed pitching over the last month, as evidenced by its 95 wRC+ (17th). The Twins also rank near the middle of the pack in most other offensive categories during that span and will once again be without their best hitter, Byron Buxton (10-day IL). Cameron has certainly had his share of rough outings this season, and facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts is never ideal. Still, it's difficult to ignore his success against Minnesota, and his $6,600 tag on DraftKings is particularly appealing for an SP2 target. Just be sure to keep an eye on the weather, as there's at least some potential for rain to become an issue later in the evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.3k | at MIL

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. DET

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.1k | at ATL

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIA

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | $9,200 | at BAL

Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL | $8,600 | vs. LAA

Christian Scott (RHP), NYM | $8,500 | at CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Note: I’m a little short on time today so I’ll keep today’s stack section simple while also showing off the new-look LineStar stack visualizations on the web version.

San Diego Padres vs. Mitch Bratt (LHP), ARI

Kansas City Royals vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), MIN

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Brewers lineup check in under 10% pOwn%.

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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